Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

The prediction of nutrients into estuaries and their subsequent behaviour: application to the Tamar and comparison with the Tweed, U.K.

Some of the techniques used to model nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharges from a terrestrial catchment to an estuary are discussed and applied to the River Tamar and Tamar Estuary system in Southwest England, U.K. Data are presented for dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in the Tamar Estuary and compared with those from the contrasting, low turbidity and rapidly flushed Tweed Estuary in Northeast England. In the Tamar catchment, simulations showed that effluent nitrate loads for typical freshwater flows contributed less than 1% of the total N load. The effect of effluent inputs on ammonium loads was more significant (∼10%). Cattle, sheep and permanent grassland dominated the N catchment export, with diffuse-source N export greatly dominating that due to point sources. Cattle, sheep, permanent grassland and cereal crops generated the greatest rates of diffuse-source P export. This reflected the higher rates of P fertiliser applications to arable land and the susceptibility of bare, arable land to P export in wetter winter months. N and P export to the Tamar Estuary from human sewage was insignificant. Non-conservative behaviour of phosphate was particularly marked in the Tamar Estuary. Silicate concentrations were slightly less than conservative levels, whereas nitrate was essentially conservative. The coastal sea acted as a sink for these terrestrially derived nutrients. A pronounced sag in dissolved oxygen that was associated with strong nitrite and ammonium peaks occurred in the turbidity maximum region of the Tamar Estuary. Nutrient behaviour within the Tweed was very different. The low turbidity and rapid flushing ensured that nutrients there were essentially conservative, so that flushing of nutrients to the coastal zone from the river occurred with little estuarine modification.

Soils and food security: challenges and opportunities

Soils most obviously contribute to food security in their essential role in crop and fodder production, so affecting the local availability of particular foods. They also have a direct influence on the ability to distribute food, the nutritional value of some foods and, in some societies, the access to certain foods through local processes of allocation and preferences. The inherent fertility of some soils is greater than that of others, so that crop yields vary greatly under semi-natural conditions. Husbandry practices, including the use of manures and fertilisers, have evolved to improve biological, chemical and physical components of soil fertility and thereby increase crop production. The challenge for the future is to sustain soil fertility in ways that increase the yield per unit area while simultaneously avoiding other detrimental environmental consequences. This will require increased effort to develop practices that use inputs such as nutrients, water and energy more efficiently. Opportunities to achieve this include adopting more effective ways to apply water and nutrients, adopting tillage practices that promote water infiltration and increase of organic matter, and breeding to improve the effectiveness of root systems in utilising soil-based resources.

Cashew cultivation, access to land and food security in Brong-Ahafo Region, Ghana: Preventing the intergenerational transmission of poverty

This research aimed to investigate the implications of changing agricultural land use from food production towards increased cashew cultivation for food security and poverty alleviation in Jaman North District, Brong-Ahafo Region of Ghana. Based on qualitative, participatory research with a total of 60 participants, the research found that increased cashew production had led to improvements in living standards for many farmers and their children over recent years. Global demand for cashew is projected to continue to grow rapidly in the immediate future and cashew-growing areas of Ghana are well placed to respond to this demand. Cashew farmers however were subject to price fluctuations in the value of Raw Cashew Nuts (RCN) due to unequal power relations with intermediaries and export buyer companies and global markets, in addition to other vulnerabilities that constrained the quality and quantity of cashew and food crops they could produce. The expansion of cashew plantations was leading to pressure on the remaining family lands available for food crop production, which community members feared could potentially compromise the food security of rural communities and the land inheritance of future generations.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

An evidence-based review on the likely economic and environmental impact of genetically modified cereals and oilseeds for UK agriculture

An evidence-based review of the potential impact that the introduction of genetically-modified (GM) cereal and oilseed crops could have for the UK was carried out. The inter-disciplinary research project addressed the key research questions using scenarios for the uptake, or not, of GM technologies. This was followed by an extensive literature review, stakeholder consultation and financial modelling. The world area of canola, oilseed rape (OSR) low in both erucic acid in the oil and glucosinolates in the meal, was 34M ha in 2012 of which 27% was GM; Canada is the lead producer but it is also grown in the USA, Australia and Chile. Farm level effects of adopting GM OSR include: lower production costs; higher yields and profits; and ease of farm management. Growing GM OSR instead of conventional OSR reduces both herbicide usage and environmental impact. Some 170M ha of maize was grown in the world in 2011 of which 28% was GM; the main producers are the USA, China and Brazil. Spain is the main EU producer of GM maize although it is also grown widely in Portugal. Insect resistant (IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) are the GM maize traits currently available commercially. Farm level benefits of adopting GM maize are lower costs of production through reduced use of pesticides and higher profits. GM maize adoption results in less pesticide usage than on conventional counterpart crops leading to less residues in food and animal feed and allowing increasing diversity of bees and other pollinators. In the EU, well-tried coexistence measures for growing GM crops in the proximity of conventional crops have avoided gene flow issues. Scientific evidence so far seems to indicate that there has been no environmental damage from growing GM crops. They may possibly even be beneficial to the environment as they result in less pesticides and herbicides being applied and improved carbon sequestration from less tillage. A review of work on GM cereals relevant for the UK found input trait work on: herbicide and pathogen tolerance; abiotic stress such as from drought or salinity; and yield traits under different field conditions. For output traits, work has mainly focussed on modifying the nutritional components of cereals and in connection with various enzymes, diagnostics and vaccines. Scrutiny of applications submitted for field trial testing of GM cereals found around 9000 applications in the USA, 15 in Australia and 10 in the EU since 1996. There have also been many patent applications and granted patents for GM cereals in the USA for both input and output traits;an indication of the scale of such work is the fact that in a 6 week period in the spring of 2013, 12 patents were granted relating to GM cereals. A dynamic financial model has enabled us to better understand and examine the likely performance of Bt maize and HT OSR for the south of the UK, if cultivation is permitted in the future. It was found that for continuous growing of Bt maize and HT OSR, unless there was pest pressure for the former and weed pressure for the latter, the seed premia and likely coexistence costs for a buffer zone between other crops would reduce the financial returns for the GM crops compared with their conventional counterparts. When modelling HT OSR in a four crop rotation, it was found that gross margins increased significantly at the higher levels of such pest or weed pressure, particularly for farm businesses with larger fields where coexistence costs would be scaled down. The impact of the supply of UK-produced GM crops on the wider supply chain was examined through an extensive literature review and widespread stakeholder consultation with the feed supply chain. The animal feed sector would benefit from cheaper supplies of raw materials if GM crops were grown and, in the future, they might also benefit from crops with enhanced nutritional profile (such as having higher protein levels) becoming available. This would also be beneficial to livestock producers enabling lower production costs and higher margins. Whilst coexistence measures would result in increased costs, it is unlikely that these would cause substantial changes in the feed chain structure. Retailers were not concerned about a future increase in the amount of animal feed coming from GM crops. To conclude, we (the project team) feel that the adoption of currently available and appropriate GM crops in the UK in the years ahead would benefit farmers, consumers and the feed chain without causing environmental damage. Furthermore, unless British farmers are allowed to grow GM crops in the future, the competitiveness of farming in the UK is likely to decline relative to that globally.

Palaeoenvironmental evidence for the impact of the crusades on the local and regional environment of medieval (13th–16th century) northern Latvia, eastern Baltic

This paper evaluates the impact of the crusades on the landscape and environment of northern Latvia between the 13th–16th centuries (medieval Livonia). The crusades replaced tribal societies in the eastern Baltic with a religious state (Ordenstaat) run by the military orders and their allies, accompanied by significant social, cultural and economic developments. These changes have previously received little consideration in palaeoenvironmental studies of past land use in the eastern Baltic region, but are fundamental to understanding the development and expansion of a European Christian identity. Sediment cores from Lake Trikāta, located adjacent to a medieval castle and settlement, were studied using pollen, macrofossils, loss-on-ignition and magnetic susceptibility. Our results show that despite continuous agricultural land use from 500 BC, the local landscape was still densely wooded until the start of the crusades in AD 1198 when a diversified pattern of pasture, meadow and arable land use was established. Colonisation followed the crusades, although in Livonia this occurred on a much smaller scale than in the rest of the Ordenstaat; Trikāta is atypical showing significant impact following the crusades with many other palaeoenvironmental studies only revealing more limited impact from the 14th century and later. Subsequent wars and changes in political control in the post-medieval period had little apparent effect on agricultural land use.

alpha-Hydroxynitrile lyase protein from Xylella fastidiosa: Cloning, expression, and characterization

Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-restricted plant pathogen that causes a range of diseases in several and important crops. Through comparative genomic sequence analysis many genes were identified and, among them, several potentially involved in plant-pathogen interaction. The experimental determination of the primary sequence of some markedly expressed proteins for X fastidiosa and the comparison with the nucleic acids sequence of genome identified one of them as being SCJ21.16 (XFa0032) gene product. The comparative analysis of this protein against SWISSPROT database, in special, resulted in similarity with a-hydroxynitrile lyase enzyme (HNL) from Arabidopsis thaliana, causing interest for being one of the most abundant proteins both in the whole cell extract as well as in the extracellular protein fraction. It is known that HNL enzyme are involved in a process termed ""cyanogenesis"", which catalyzes the dissociation of alpha-hydroxinitrile into carbonyle and HCN when plant tissue is damaged. Although the complete genome sequences of X.fastidiosa are available and the cyanogenesis process is well known, the biological role of this protein in this organism is not yet functionally characterized. In this study we presented the cloning, expression, characterization of recombinant HNL from X fastidiosa, and its probable function in the cellular metabolism. The successful cloning and heterologous expression in Escherichia coli resulted in a satisfactory amount of the recombinant HNL expressed in a soluble, and active form giving convenient access to pure enzyme for biochemical and structural studies. Finally, our results confirmed that the product of the gene XFa0032 can be positively assigned as FAD-independent HNLs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Growth and mineral nutrition of Solanum americanum

Um experimento em casa de vegetação foi conduzido entre novembro de 1995 e abril de 1996 na FCAV/UNESP, Brasil, objetivando estudar a produção de matéria seca, a distribuição e o acúmulo de macronutrientes por Solanum americanum - uma importante planta infestante de culturas anuais e perenes no Brasil. As plantas foram cultivadas em vasos de 7 L com substrato de areia, os quais foram irrigados diariamente com solução nutritiva de Hoagland & Arnon. O delineamento experimental foi inteiramente casualizado, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos corresponderam às épocas de avaliação, em intervalos de 14 dias, iniciando-se 21 dias após a emergência (DAE). em cada avaliação, as plantas de quatro vasos foram analisadas quanto à produção de matéria seca e ao conteúdo de macronutrientes. S. americanum apresentou pequeno acúmulo de matéria seca e de macronutrientes no início da fase experimental. Esses acúmulos intensificaram-se após 77 DAE, atingindo o máximo valor teórico aos 142, 142, 164, 149, 140, 149 e 152 DAE, para matéria seca, N, P, K, Ca, Mg e S, respectivamente. K e N foram os macronutrientes acumulados em maior quantidade por plantas de S. americanum.

Population Fluctuations of Formicidae (Hymenoptera) and Araneae (Arachnida) in Two Tillage Systems in the Region of Guaíra-SP

The objective of this study was to elucidate population fluctuations of spider and ant species in forest fragments and adjacent soybean and corn crops under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems, and their correlations with meteorological factors. From Nov 2004 to Apr 2007 sampling of these arthropods at Guaira, São Paulo state was done biweekly during the cropping season and monthly during the periods between crops. To obtain samples at each experimental site, pitfall traps were distributed in 2 transects of 200 m of which 100 m was in the crop, and 100 m was in the forest fragment. Temperature and rainfall were found to have major impacts on fluctuations in population densities of ants of the genus, Pheidole, in soybean and corn crops both grown with conventional tillage and no tillage systems.

The status of soil phosphate fractions and the ability of fungi to dissolve hardly soluble phosphates

Brazilian soils predominantly consist of iron and aluminum oxides and have a low phosphorus content. The present study was carried out in order to assess the status of phosphate fractions in pasture, forest and agricultural soils and the ability of soil fungi to solubilize iron and aluminum phosphates. The abundance of P fractions in the soils studied occurred in the following order: Fe-P > reductant-soluble Fe-P > occluded Fe-P > occluded Al-P > Al-P > Ca-P. of the 481 fungi isolated, 33 showed the ability to solubilize the inorganic phosphates in culture. of these, 14 were considered to be high or very high solubilizers based on a solubilization capacity > 1000 mu g PO43- ml(-1). Isolate F-111 was the only one that dissolved all the insoluble phosphates used. Nine isolates solubilized both Al-P and Ca-P, and four other isolates only solubilized Ca-P. The highest number of isolates with high solubilization capacity were detected in pasture soil, followed by tropical rain forest and forest patch soils. Pasture soil presented both the largest contents of insoluble phosphates and the largest number of fungal isolates with phosphate-solubilizing ability. The range and size of P fractions influenced the number of fungi and their ability to solubilize hardly soluble phosphates. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Growth and mineral nutrition of Ipomoea quamoclit

Um experimento em casa de vegetação foi conduzido entre novembro de 2006 e abril de 2007, na FCAV/UNESP, Brasil, objetivando estudar a produção de massa seca, a distribuição e o acúmulo de macronutrientes por Ipomoea quamoclit, uma importante planta infestante de culturas anuais e perenes no Brasil. As plantas foram cultivadas em vasos de 7 L com substrato de areia, que foram irrigados diariamente com solução nutritiva de Hoagland & Arnon. O delineamento experimental foi inteiramente casualizado, com quatro repetições. Os tratamentos corresponderam às épocas de avaliação, em intervalos de 14 dias, iniciando-se 21 dias após a emergência (DAE). em cada avaliação, as plantas de quatro vasos foram analisadas quanto à produção de massa seca e ao conteúdo de macronutrientes. I. quamoclit apresentou pequeno acúmulo de massa seca e de macronutrientes no início da fase experimental. Esses acúmulos intensificaram-se após 77 DAE, atingindo o máximo valor teórico aos 146, 143, 140, 149, 142, 153 e 124 DAE, para massa seca, N, P, K, Ca, Mg e S, respectivamente. K e N foram os macronutrientes acumulados em maior quantidade por plantas de I. quamoclit.

Crop type influences soil aggregation and organic matter under no-tillage

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Least limiting water range in soil under crop rotations and chiseling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Molecular and biological characterization of Lettuce mosaic virus (LMV) isolates reveals a distinct and widespread type of resistance-breaking isolate: LMV-Most

Lettuce mosaic virus (LMV) causes an economically important seedborne and aphid-transmitted disease of lettuce and ornamental crops worldwide. The genetic diversity among 73 LMV isolates was examined based on a 216-nucleotide sequence at the variable region encoding the NIb-coat protein junction, Three clusters of LMV isolates were distinguished: LMV-Yar, LMV-Greck, and LMV-RoW. In the latter cluster, two subgroups of isolates, LMV-Common and LMV-Most, accounted for a large proportion of the LMV isolates analyzed. These two subgroups included the seedborne isolates, consistent with this property contributing a selective advantage and resulting in widespread distribution. In addition to being seedborne, LMV-Most isolates overcome the two resistance genes commonly used in lettuce, mol(1) and mol(2), and thus represent a potential threat to lettuce cultivation. The complete sequence of an LMV-Most isolate (LMV-AF199) was determined, allowing a better definition of the genetic relationships among LMV-Most, LMV-Common, and an additional isolate of the LMV-RoW cluster.