Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

First-principles calculation of the AlAs/GaAs interface band structure using a self-energy-corrected local density approximation

We apply a self-energy-corrected local density approximation (LDA) to obtain corrected bulk band gaps and to study the band offsets of AlAs grown on GaAs (AlAs/GaAs). We also investigate the Al(x)Ga(1-x)As/GaAs alloy interface, commonly employed in band gap engineering. The calculations are fully ab initio, with no adjustable parameters or experimental input, and at a computational cost comparable to traditional LDA. Our results are in good agreement with experimental values and other theoretical studies. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2011

Refraction corrected transmission ultrasound computed tomography for application in breast imaging

Purpose: We present an iterative framework for CT reconstruction from transmission ultrasound data which accurately and efficiently models the strong refraction effects that occur in our target application: Imaging the female breast. Methods: Our refractive ray tracing framework has its foundation in the fast marching method (FNMM) and it allows an accurate as well as efficient modeling of curved rays. We also describe a novel regularization scheme that yields further significant reconstruction quality improvements. A final contribution is the development of a realistic anthropomorphic digital breast phantom based on the NIH Visible Female data set. Results: Our system is able to resolve very fine details even in the presence of significant noise, and it reconstructs both sound speed and attenuation data. Excellent correspondence with a traditional, but significantly more computationally expensive wave equation solver is achieved. Conclusions: Apart from the accurate modeling of curved rays, decisive factors have also been our regularization scheme and the high-quality interpolation filter we have used. An added benefit of our framework is that it accelerates well on GPUs where we have shown that clinical 3D reconstruction speeds on the order of minutes are possible.

Bias-corrected estimators for dispersion models with dispersion covariates

In this paper we discuss bias-corrected estimators for the regression and the dispersion parameters in an extended class of dispersion models (Jorgensen, 1997b). This class extends the regular dispersion models by letting the dispersion parameter vary throughout the observations, and contains the dispersion models as particular case. General formulae for the O(n(-1)) bias are obtained explicitly in dispersion models with dispersion covariates, which generalize previous results obtained by Botter and Cordeiro (1998), Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991), Cordeiro and Vasconcellos (1999), and Paula (1992). The practical use of the formulae is that we can derive closed-form expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression and dispersion parameters when the information matrix has a closed-form. Various expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases are given for special models. The formulae have advantages for numerical purposes because they require only a supplementary weighted linear regression. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with two different estimators which are also bias-free to order O(n(-1)) that are based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Síntese e enriquecimento enantiomérico via catálise enzimática do sistema 5-bromo-12-oxa-pentaciclo[6.2.16,9.12,7.12,10]dodeca-4-eno-3-endo-ol e derivados. RMN de 1H e 13C: correlação de parâmetros teóricos e experimentais

Partindo de ciclopentadieno, ciclohexadieno, p-benzoquinona e 2,5-dibromo-pbenzoquinona, os adutos 1, 5, 30 e 31 foram sintetizados. Os adutos 1, 5 e 30 foram utilizados como produtos de partida para a síntese de 13 (treze) novos compostos, em sua maioria com potenciais características para apresentarem atividade biológica inibidora de glicosidases e reguladora da liberação de Insulina no sangue. O aduto 31 é inédito na literatura até o momento. Cinco novas propostas de mecanismos são apresentadas. Os álcoois racêmicos 6 e 29 foram submetidos a reações de transesterificação catalisadas por lipase de Pseudomonas cepacia em diferentes preparações e seus enantiômeros separados com enantiosseletividade (E) maior que 100 em todos os casos. Este processo resultou, também, na obtenção dos respectivos acetatos 43 e 44 enantiomericamente puros e com excelentes rendimentos químicos. Os compostos 6, 29 e 34 depois de terem suas estruturas moleculares resolvidas através dos métodos espectroscópicos de rotina, tiveram suas estruturas moleculares calculadas pelo método ab initio e por Funcionais de Densidade. As geometrias otimizadas foram submetidas ao método GIAO para o cálculo dos tensores de blindagem magnética isotrópica. Estes cálculos mostraram-se eficazes na descrição dos deslocamentos químicos da maioria dos átomos, incluindo os dos anéis ciclopropanos presentes nas estruturas moleculares de cada composto. Algumas dificuldades foram encontradas para a descrição do sistema vinílico halogenado dos álcoois 6 e 29. Foram utilizadas moléculas modelo para verificar a extensão de tais dificuldades.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price level. The result was conÖrmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identiÖcation scheme employed by Christiano et al. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap conÖdence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically signiÖcant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, theoretical and empirical results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular it delivers a zero-limiting mean-squared error if the number of forecasts and the number of post-sample time periods is sufficiently large. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of this new technique in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from well known surveys is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? an application of bias- corrected bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price leveI. The result was confirmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identification scheme employed by Christiano et aI. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically significant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for .only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial.

Traceability of animal byproducts in quail (Coturnix coturnix japonica) tissues using carbon (13C/12C) and nitrogen (15N/14N) stable isotopes

Consistent information on meat products consumed by the public is essential. The technique of stable isotopes is a powerful tool to recover consumers' confidence, as it allows the detection of animal byproduct residues in poultry meat, particularly in quail meat. This study aimed at checking the presence of poultry byproduct mixtures in quail diets by applying the technique of carbon (13C/12C) and nitrogen (15N/14N) stable isotopes in quail breast muscle, keel, and tibia. Sixty four one-day-old male quails were obtained from a commercial farm. Birds were housed in an experimental house from one to 42 days of age, and were randomly distributed into 8 experimental treatments, and fed diets containing poultry offal meal (POM), bovine meat and bone meal (MBM) or poultry feather meal (PFM), or their mixtures. Four birds per treatment were slaughtered at 42 days of age, and breast (Pectoralis major), keel, and tibia were collected for analyses. The inclusion of animal byproducts in quail diets was detected by 13C e 15N analyses in the tissues of the birds; however, it was not possible to specify which byproducts were used. It was concluded that quail meat can be certified by the technique of stable isotopes.

Complete Assignments of ¹H and 13C-NMR Spectra of the 3,4-seco-Triterpene Canaric Acid isolated from Rudgea jasminoides

O ácido canárico 1 foi isolado das folhas de Rudgea jasminoides. A substância isolada é um derivado triterpênico do tipo seco-lupano e teve sua estrutura elucidada com base nos dados espectrais, principalmente em experimentos de RMN a 1D e 2D. O sitosterol, o estigmasterol e os ácidos ursólico e oleanólico também foram isolados.

Relações lineares múltiplas entre deslocamentos químicos em RMN 13C de haletos alifáticos

Os deslocamentos químicos de RMN 13C de carbonos a , b , g e d de 17 conjuntos de haletos (F, Cl Br e I) alifáticos, inclusive compostos mono, bi e tricíclicos, podem ser reproduzidos por uma equação linear de duas constantes e duas variáveis do tipo : d R-X = A*d R-X1 + B*d R-X2 onde A e B são constantes obtidas por regressão multilinear a partir de deslocamentos químicos de 13C; d R-X, o deslocamento químico de 13C do composto com halogênio (R-X); d R-X1 e d R-X2 deslocamentos químicos de outros haletos. Para brometos (R-X) alifáticos a melhor correlação foi obtida com os dados de fluoretos (R-X1) e iodetos (R-X2) com R2 de 0,9989 e desvio médio absoluto (DM) de 0,39ppm. Para cloretos (R-X) a melhor correlação foi com dados de brometos (R-X1) e iodetos (R-X2) com R2 de 0,9960 e DM de 0,76ppm. Para fluoretos (R-X) a melhor correlação foi com brometos (R-X1) e iodetos (R-X2) com R2 de 0,9977 e DM de 1,10ppm e para iodetos (R-X) foi com fluoretos (R-X1) e brometos (R-X2) com R2 de 0,9972 e desvio médio absoluto de 0,60 ppm.

Traceability of animal meals in Japanese quail eggs using the technique of 13C e 15N* stable isotopes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Método de análise isotópica (δ13C) e limite de legalidade em néctar de laranja

Os objetivos deste trabalho foram desenvolver o método de análise isotópica para quantificar o carbono do ciclo fotossintético C3 em néctares de laranja comerciais e mensurar o limite de legalidade, baseado na legislação brasileira, para identificar as bebidas que não estão em conformidade com o Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA). As bebidas foram produzidas em laboratório, conforme a legislação brasileira. Também foram produzidos néctares adulterados com quantidade de suco de laranja abaixo do limite mínimo permitido pelo MAPA. Na análise isotópica, foi mensurado o enriquecimento isotópico relativo dos néctares de laranja e também de suas frações, sólidos insolúveis (polpa) e açúcar purificado. Com esses resultados, foi estimada a quantidade de fonte C3 por meio da equação da diluição isotópica. Para determinar a existência de adulteração, foi necessária a criação do limite de legalidade de acordo com a legislação brasileira. Oito marcas comerciais de néctar de laranja foram analisadas. Todas foram classificadas como legais. O limite de legalidade foi uma importante inovação metodológica, que possibilitou identificar as bebidas que estavam em conformidade com a legislação brasileira. A metodologia desenvolvida provou ser eficiente para quantificar o carbono de origem C3 em néctares de laranja comerciais.