An analysis of the Galveston Hurricane using the 20CR data set

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) is an atmospheric dataset consisting of 56 ensemble members, which covers the entire globe and reaches back to 1871. To assess the suitability of this dataset for studying past extremes, we analysed a prominent extreme event, namely the Galveston Hurricane, which made landfall in September 1900 in Texas, USA. The ensemble mean of 20CR shows a track of the pressure minimum with a small standard deviation among the 56 ensemble members in the area of the Gulf of Mexico. However, there are systematic differences between the assimilated “Best Track” from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the ensemble mean track in 20CR. East of the Strait of Florida, the tracks derived from 20CR are located systematically northeast of the assimilated track while in the Gulf of Mexico, the 20CR tracks are systematically shifted to the southwest compared to the IBTrACS position. The hurricane can also be observed in the wind field, which shows a cyclonic rotation and a relatively calm zone in the centre of the hurricane. The 20CR data reproduce the pressure gradient and cyclonic wind field. Regarding the amplitude of the wind speeds, the ensemble mean values from 20CR are significantly lower than the wind speeds known from measurements.

Portfolio-optimization models for small investors

Since 2010, the client base of online-trading service providers has grown significantly. Such companies enable small investors to access the stock market at advantageous rates. Because small investors buy and sell stocks in moderate amounts, they should consider fixed transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends when selecting their portfolio. In this paper, we consider the small investor’s problem of investing capital in stocks in a way that maximizes the expected portfolio return and guarantees that the portfolio risk does not exceed a prescribed risk level. Portfolio-optimization models known from the literature are in general designed for institutional investors and do not consider the specific constraints of small investors. We therefore extend four well-known portfolio-optimization models to make them applicable for small investors. We consider one nonlinear model that uses variance as a risk measure and three linear models that use the mean absolute deviation from the portfolio return, the maximum loss, and the conditional value-at-risk as risk measures. We extend all models to consider piecewise-constant transaction costs, integral transaction units, and dividends. In an out-of-sample experiment based on Swiss stock-market data and the cost structure of the online-trading service provider Swissquote, we apply both the basic models and the extended models; the former represent the perspective of an institutional investor, and the latter the perspective of a small investor. The basic models compute portfolios that yield on average a slightly higher return than the portfolios computed with the extended models. However, all generated portfolios yield on average a higher return than the Swiss performance index. There are considerable differences between the four risk measures with respect to the mean realized portfolio return and the standard deviation of the realized portfolio return.

Encore® Implant Use in Feedlot Steers

A feedlot demonstration utilizing Encore®, a new longterm implant product, was completed at the Allee Demonstration Farm at Newell, Iowa in 1999. Seventyone steers (697 lbs.) were allotted by weight and hide color and assigned to one of three treatments: 1) Encore® (43.9 mg estradiol = E) on day 0; 2) Encore® plus Component® TS (140 mg trenbolone acetate = ETS0) on day 0; or 3) Encore® on day 0 followed by Component® TS (ETS100) on day 100. Due to wide standard deviation in the weight of steers at the beginning of the demonstration, cattle were harvested in two groups. Approximately half of each treatment group was sorted by visual appraisal as to market readiness. Statistical interactions existed within treatment group between first and second harvest dates, therefore data were split and analyzed accordingly. In the first harvest group, ETS0 steers had higher marbling scores than ETS100 steers, and lower average daily gain than E steers and ETS100 steers. In the second harvest group, ETS0 steers had more fat at the 12th/13 rib than ETS100 steers, but did not differ from E steers. Marbling scores were also higher for ETS0 steers than either ETS100 or E steers in the second harvest group. Pooled data reveal that ETS0 steers had higher marbling scores than ETS100 steers and tended to have higher marbling scores than E steers. First harvest E and ETS100 steers had greater average daily gain than ETS0 steers. In the second harvest group, ETS0 steers had heavier final ending weights than E steers but did not differ from ETS100 steers. Final ending weights, rib eye area, fat thickness at the 12th/13th rib, KPH fat, and calculated yield grades did not differ among treatment groups in the pooled data.

Patient-specific finite-element simulation of the human cornea: A clinical validation study on cataract surgery

The planning of refractive surgical interventions is a challenging task. Numerical modeling has been proposed as a solution to support surgical intervention and predict the visual acuity, but validation on patient specific intervention is missing. The purpose of this study was to validate the numerical predictions of the post-operative corneal topography induced by the incisions required for cataract surgery. The corneal topography of 13 patients was assessed preoperatively and postoperatively (1-day and 30-day follow-up) with a Pentacam tomography device. The preoperatively acquired geometric corneal topography – anterior, posterior and pachymetry data – was used to build patient-specific finite element models. For each patient, the effects of the cataract incisions were simulated numerically and the resulting corneal surfaces were compared to the clinical postoperative measurements at one day and at 30-days follow up. Results showed that the model was able to reproduce experimental measurements with an error on the surgically induced sphere of 0.38D one day postoperatively and 0.19D 30 days postoperatively. The standard deviation of the surgically induced cylinder was 0.54D at the first postoperative day and 0.38D 30 days postoperatively. The prediction errors in surface elevation and curvature were below the topography measurement device accuracy of ±5μm and ±0.25D after the 30-day follow-up. The results showed that finite element simulations of corneal biomechanics are able to predict post cataract surgery within topography measurement device accuracy. We can conclude that the numerical simulation can become a valuable tool to plan corneal incisions in cataract surgery and other ophthalmosurgical procedures in order to optimize patients' refractive outcome and visual function.

Deviation of the alloimmune response toward tolerance by chimeric class I MHC molecules

Class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules induce either accelerated rejection or prolonged survival of allografts, presumably because of the presence of immunogenic or tolerogenic epitopes, respectively. To explore the molecular basis of this phenomenon, three chimeric class I molecules were constructed by substituting the rat class I RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ sequences with the N-terminus of HLA-A2.1 (N$\sp{\rm HLA-A2.1}$-RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$), the $\alpha\sb1$ helix (h) with $\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$ sequences ( ($\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$) or the entire $\alpha\sb2$ domain (d) with $\rm\alpha\sb{2d}\sp{u}$ sequences ( ($\rm\alpha\sb{2d}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$). Wild type (WT) and chimeric cDNAs were sequenced prior to transfection into Buffalo (BUF; RT1$\sp{\rm b}$) hepatoma cells. Stable transfectants were injected subcutaneously (s.c.) into different hosts 7 days prior to challenge with a heart allograft. In BUF hosts, chimeric ($\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ accelerated the rejection of Wistar Furth (WF; RT1$\sp{\rm u}$) heart allografts, but had no effect on the survival of ACI (RT1$\sp{\rm a}$) grafts. In contrast, the ($\rm\alpha\sb{2d}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ (containing $\rm\alpha\sb{1d}\sp{a}$ sequences) immunized BUF recipients toward RT1$\sp{\rm a}$ grafts. In WF hosts, WT-RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ was a potent immunogen and accelerated ACI graft rejection, N$\sp{\rm HLA-A2.1}$-RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ was less effective and ($\rm\alpha\sb{\rm 1h}\sp{u}\rbrack$-RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ was not immunogenic. Thus, dominant and subdominant epitopes inducing in vivo sensitization to cardiac allografts are present in the $\alpha\sb1$ helix and the N-terminus, respectively. The failure of ($\rm\alpha\sb{2d}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ transfectants (containing recipient-type $\alpha\sb{\rm 2d}$ sequences) to sensitize WF hosts toward ACI (RT1$\sp{\rm a}$) grafts, despite the presence of donor-type immunogenic $\alpha\sb{\rm 1d}\sp{\rm a}$, suggests that "self-$\alpha\sb2$" sequences displayed on chimeric antigens interfere with immunogenicity. The ($\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ transfectants injected s.c. prolonged the survival of WF (RT1$\sp{\rm u}$) hearts in ACI (RT1$\sp{\rm a}$) recipients. Furthermore, intra-portal injection of extracts from ($\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$) -RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$, but not WT-RT1.A$\sp{\rm a}$ or RT1.A$\sp{\rm u}$, in conjunction with a brief cyclosporine course rendered ACI hosts permanently and specifically tolerant to donor-type WF cardiac allografts. Thus, immunodominant allodeterminants are present in the $\alpha\sb1$, but not the $\alpha\sb2$, domain of rat class I MHC molecules. Furthermore, the $\rm\alpha\sb{1h}\sp{u}$ immunogenic epitopes trigger tolerogenic responses when flanked by host-type N-terminal$\sp{\rm a}$ and $\rm\alpha\sb{2d}\sp{a}$ sequences. ^

Validation of middle-atmospheric campaign-based water vapour measured by the ground-based microwave radiometer MIAWARA-C

Middle atmospheric water vapour can be used as a tracer for dynamical processes. It is mainly measured by satellite instruments and ground-based microwave radiometers. Ground-based instruments capable of measuring middle-atmospheric water vapour are sparse but valuable as they complement satellite measurements, are relatively easy to maintain and have a long lifetime. MIAWARA-C is a ground-based microwave radiometer for middle-atmospheric water vapour designed for use on measurement campaigns for both atmospheric case studies and instrument intercomparisons. MIAWARA-C's retrieval version 1.1 (v1.1) is set up in a such way as to provide a consistent data set even if the instrument is operated from different locations on a campaign basis. The sensitive altitude range for v1.1 extends from 4 hPa (37 km) to 0.017 hPa (75 km). For v1.1 the estimated systematic error is approximately 10% for all altitudes. At lower altitudes it is dominated by uncertainties in the calibration, with altitude the influence of spectroscopic and temperature uncertainties increases. The estimated random error increases with altitude from 5 to 25%. MIAWARA-C measures two polarisations of the incident radiation in separate receiver channels, and can therefore provide two measurements of the same air mass with independent instrumental noise. The standard deviation of the difference between the profiles obtained from the two polarisations is in excellent agreement with the estimated random measurement error of v1.1. In this paper, the quality of v1.1 data is assessed for measurements obtained at two different locations: (1) a total of 25 months of measurements in the Arctic (Sodankylä, 67.37° N, 26.63° E) and (2) nine months of measurements at mid-latitudes (Zimmerwald, 46.88° N, 7.46° E). For both locations MIAWARA-C's profiles are compared to measurements from the satellite experiments Aura MLS and MIPAS. In addition, comparisons to ACE-FTS and SOFIE are presented for the Arctic and to the ground-based radiometer MIAWARA for the mid-latitude campaigns. In general, all intercomparisons show high correlation coefficients, confirming the ability of MIAWARA-C to monitor temporal variations of the order of days. The biases are generally below 13% and within the estimated systematic uncertainty of MIAWARA-C. No consistent wet or dry bias is identified for MIAWARA-C. In addition, comparisons to the reference instruments indicate the estimated random error of v1.1 to be a realistic measure of the random variation on the retrieved profile between 45 and 70 km.

Trends and outcomes in the use of surgery and radiation for the treatment of locally advanced esophageal cancer: a propensity score adjusted analysis of the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results registry from 1998 to 2008

We examined outcomes and trends in surgery and radiation use for patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer, for whom optimal treatment isn't clear. Trends in surgery and radiation for patients with T1-T3N1M0 squamous cell or adenocarcinoma of the mid or distal esophagus in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1998 to 2008 were analyzed using generalized linear models including year as predictor; Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results doesn't record chemotherapy data. Local treatment was unimodal if patients had only surgery or radiation and bimodal if they had both. Five-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using propensity-score adjusted Cox proportional-hazard models. Overall 5-year survival for the 3295 patients identified (mean age 65.1 years, standard deviation 11.0) was 18.9% (95% confidence interval: 17.3-20.7). Local treatment was bimodal for 1274 (38.7%) and unimodal for 2021 (61.3%) patients; 1325 (40.2%) had radiation alone and 696 (21.1%) underwent only surgery. The use of bimodal therapy (32.8-42.5%, P = 0.01) and radiation alone (29.3-44.5%, P < 0.001) increased significantly from 1998 to 2008. Bimodal therapy predicted improved CSS (hazard ratios [HR]: 0.68, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 0.58, P < 0.001) compared with unimodal therapy. For the first 7 months (before survival curve crossing), CSS after radiation therapy alone was similar to surgery alone (HR: 0.86, P = 0.12) while OS was worse for surgery only (HR: 0.70, P = 0.001). However, worse CSS (HR: 1.43, P < 0.001) and OS (HR: 1.46, P < 0.001) after that initial timeframe were found for radiation therapy only. The use of radiation to treat locally advanced mid and distal esophageal cancers increased from 1998 to 2008. Survival was best when both surgery and radiation were used.

High Incorrect Use of the Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) in Original Articles in Three Cardiovascular Journals Evaluated for 2012.

RATIONALE In biomedical journals authors sometimes use the standard error of the mean (SEM) for data description, which has been called inappropriate or incorrect. OBJECTIVE To assess the frequency of incorrect use of SEM in articles in three selected cardiovascular journals. METHODS AND RESULTS All original journal articles published in 2012 in Cardiovascular Research, Circulation: Heart Failure and Circulation Research were assessed by two assessors for inappropriate use of SEM when providing descriptive information of empirical data. We also assessed whether the authors state in the methods section that the SEM will be used for data description. Of 441 articles included in this survey, 64% (282 articles) contained at least one instance of incorrect use of the SEM, with two journals having a prevalence above 70% and "Circulation: Heart Failure" having the lowest value (27%). In 81% of articles with incorrect use of SEM, the authors had explicitly stated that they use the SEM for data description and in 89% SEM bars were also used instead of 95% confidence intervals. Basic science studies had a 7.4-fold higher level of inappropriate SEM use (74%) than clinical studies (10%). LIMITATIONS The selection of the three cardiovascular journals was based on a subjective initial impression of observing inappropriate SEM use. The observed results are not representative for all cardiovascular journals. CONCLUSION In three selected cardiovascular journals we found a high level of inappropriate SEM use and explicit methods statements to use it for data description, especially in basic science studies. To improve on this situation, these and other journals should provide clear instructions to authors on how to report descriptive information of empirical data.

Quantifying the turnover of transcriptional subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells

HIV-1-infected cells in peripheral blood can be grouped into different transcriptional subclasses. Quantifying the turnover of these cellular subclasses can provide important insights into the viral life cycle and the generation and maintenance of latently infected cells. We used previously published data from five patients chronically infected with HIV-1 that initiated combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Patient-matched PCR for unspliced and multiply spliced viral RNAs combined with limiting dilution analysis provided measurements of transcriptional profiles at the single cell level. Furthermore, measurement of intracellular transcripts and extracellular virion-enclosed HIV-1 RNA allowed us to distinguish productive from non-productive cells. We developed a mathematical model describing the dynamics of plasma virus and the transcriptional subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells. Fitting the model to the data allowed us to better understand the phenotype of different transcriptional subclasses and their contribution to the overall turnover of HIV-1 before and during cART. The average number of virus-producing cells in peripheral blood is small during chronic infection. We find that a substantial fraction of cells can become defectively infected. Assuming that the infection is homogenous throughout the body, we estimate an average in vivo viral burst size on the order of 104 virions per cell. Our study provides novel quantitative insights into the turnover and development of different subclasses of HIV-1-infected cells, and indicates that cells containing solely unspliced viral RNA are a good marker for viral latency. The model illustrates how the pool of latently infected cells becomes rapidly established during the first months of acute infection and continues to increase slowly during the first years of chronic infection. Having a detailed understanding of this process will be useful for the evaluation of viral eradication strategies that aim to deplete the latent reservoir of HIV-1.

An iron stable isotope comparison between human erythrocytes and plasma

We present precise iron stable isotope ratios measured by multicollector-ICP mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) of human red blood cells (erythrocytes) and blood plasma from 12 healthy male adults taken during a clinical study. The accurate determination of stable isotope ratios in plasma first required substantial method development work, as minor iron amounts in plasma had to be separated from a large organic matrix prior to mass-spectrometric analysis to avoid spectroscopic interferences and shifts in the mass spectrometer's mass-bias. The 56Fe/54Fe ratio in erythrocytes, expressed as permil difference from the “IRMM-014” iron reference standard (δ56/54Fe), ranges from −3.1‰ to −2.2‰, a range typical for male Caucasian adults. The individual subject erythrocyte iron isotope composition can be regarded as uniform over the 21 days investigated, as variations (±0.059 to ±0.15‰) are mostly within the analytical precision of reference materials. In plasma, δ56/54Fe values measured in two different laboratories range from −3.0‰ to −2.0‰, and are on average 0.24‰ higher than those in erythrocytes. However, this difference is barely resolvable within one standard deviation of the differences (0.22‰). Taking into account the possible contamination due to hemolysis (iron concentrations are only 0.4 to 2 ppm in plasma compared to approx. 480 ppm in erythrocytes), we model the pure plasma δ56/54Fe to be on average 0.4‰ higher than that in erythrocytes. Hence, the plasma iron isotope signature lies between that of the liver and that of erythrocytes. This difference can be explained by redox processes involved during cycling of iron between transferrin and ferritin.

Statistics of the National soil test database of France

In France, farmers commission about 250,000 soil-testing analyses per year to assist them managing soil fertility. The number and diversity of origin of the samples make these analyses an interesting and original information source regarding cultivated topsoil variability. Moreover, these analyses relate to several parameters strongly influenced by human activity (macronutrient contents, pH...), for which existing cartographic information is not very relevant. Compiling the results of these analyses into a database makes it possible to re-use these data within both a national and temporal framework. A database compilation relating to data collected over the period 1990-2009 has been recently achieved. So far, commercial soil-testing laboratories approved by the Ministry of Agriculture have provided analytical results from more than 2,000,000 samples. After the initial quality control stage, analytical results from more than 1,900,000 samples were available in the database. The anonymity of the landholders seeking soil analyses is perfectly preserved, as the only identifying information stored is the location of the nearest administrative city to the sample site. We present in this dataset a set of statistical parameters of the spatial distributions for several agronomic soil properties. These statistical parameters are calculated for 4 different nested spatial entities (administrative areas: e.g. regions, departments, counties and agricultural areas) and for 4 time periods (1990-1994, 1995-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009). Two kinds of agronomic soil properties are available: the firs one correspond to the quantitative variables like the organic carbon content and the second one corresponds to the qualitative variables like the texture class. For each spatial unit and temporal period, we calculated the following statistics stets: the first set is calculated for the quantitative variables and corresponds to the number of samples, the mean, the standard deviation and, the 2-,4-,10-quantiles; the second set is calculated for the qualitative variables and corresponds to the number of samples, the value of the dominant class, the number of samples of the dominant class, the second dominant class, the number of samples of the second dominant class.

Influencia de los ciclos solares sobre las precipitaciones en Azul, pcia. de Buenos Aires

El objetivo de este artículo fue encontrar un sinergismo entre los máximos de actividad solar y las lluvias caídas en Azul, Pcia. de Buenos Aires (36°45' S; 59°57' O y altitud: 137 m s. n. m.), empleándose una serie de precipitaciones anuales desde 1913 hasta 2012. Los resultados mostraron que los últimos cuatro máximos de actividad solar se relacionan con los años de mayores precipitaciones. Las precipitaciones anuales para dichos años, presentaron un promedio de 1317 mm (2,4 desvíos estándar sobre la media) que resultó significativamente diferente a la media de los últimos cien años (855,7 mm ±191,1 mm). Se encontró una relación positiva entre los años de máxima actividad solar y la aparición de eventos extremos en las precipitaciones, que generan excesos hídricos e inundaciones en el sector rural y urbano de Azul.