GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

Perceptions of online tutorials for distance learning in mathematics and computing

We report on student and staff perceptions of synchronous online teaching and learning sessions in mathematics and computing. The study is based on two surveys of students and tutors conducted 5 years apart, and focusses on the educational experience as well as societal and accessibility dimensions. Key conclusions are that both staff and students value online sessions, to supplement face-to-face sessions, mainly for their convenience, but interaction within the sessions is limited. Students find the recording of sessions particularly helpful in their studies.

Professional development and a discussion of the professional preparation provided by information and library science degree programs in public universities in Madrid, 2000-2005

A study was designed to determine how the degree programs in Information and library science available in 2000-2005 at the public universities of Madrid fit the tabour market needs of their students. The methodology used was the development of a questionnaire addressed to graduates. Although the number of surveys completed is not high (118), the authors believe that the results obtained permit a series of conclusions that may be extrapolated to the entire cohort.

MgB(2) Superconductors With Addition of Other Diborides and SiC

The discovery of superconductivity at 39 K in MgB(2) has been catching the attention of scientists due to the possibility of applying the material in magnets and electronic devices operating with cryocoolers (temperatures around 20 K). In the present work, a methodology to optimize the critical current densities of this material is described. MgB(2) bulk samples were prepared and analyzed with the addition of other diborides with the same C32 hexagonal structure as MgB(2) (TaB(2), ZrB(2), VB(2), and AlB(2)) and with simultaneous addition of SiC. Microstructural characterization, performed using SEM+EDS and XRD, was extremely important to determine the distribution and compositional characterization of the superconducting phase. Magnetic superconducting characterization using SQUID was performed to determine the best material addition. As a result we could analyze the behavior of each addition on the current transport capacity, including an analysis of the magnetic flux pinning mechanisms.

The attentional demands of preferred and non-preferred gait patterns

The purpose of this study was to determine the attentional demands of natural and imposed gait, as well as the attentional costs of transitions between the walking and running co-ordination patterns. Seven healthy young men and four healthy young women undertook an auditory probe reaction time task concurrently with self-selected gait (Experiment 1) and imposed walking and running (Experiment 2) at different speeds on a motor-driven treadmill. In Experiment 1, where participants were free to choose their own movement pattern to match the speed of travel of the treadmill, normal gait control was shown to have a significant attentional cost, and hence not be automatic in the classical sense. However, this attentional cost did not differ between the two gait modes or at the transition point. In Experiment 2, where participants were required to maintain specific gait modes regardless of the treadmill speed, the maintenance of walking at speeds normally associated with running was found to have an attentional cost whereas this was not the case for running at normal walking speeds. Collectively the findings support a model of gait control in which the normal switching between gait modes is determined with minimal attention demand and in which it is possible to sustain non-preferred gait modes although, in the case of walking, only at a significant attentional/cognitive cost. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Information and wildlife valuation: Experiments and policy

The authors use experimental surveys to investigate the association between individuals' knowledge of particular wildlife species and their stated willingness to allocate funds to conserve each. The nature of variations in these allocations between species (e.g., their dispersion) as participants' knowledge increases is examined. Factors influencing these changes are suggested. Willingness-to-pay allocations are found not to measure the economic value of species, but are shown to be policy relevant. The results indicate that poorly known species, e.g., in remote areas, may obtain relatively less conservation support than they deserve.

A novel stable inhibitor of endopeptidases EC 3.4.24.15 and 3.4.24.16 potentiates bradykinin-induced hypotension

We have developed a novel inhibitor of the metalloendopeptidases EC 3.4.24.15 (EP24.15) and EC 3.4.24.16 (EP24.16), N-[1-(R, S)-carboxy-3-phenylpropyl]-Ala-Aib-Tyr-p-aminobenzoate (JA2), in which alpha-aminoisobutyric acid (Aib) is substituted for an alanine in a well-described but unstable inhibitor, cFP-AAY-pAB. This substitution increases the resistance of the inhibitor to degradation without altering potency. In the present study, we investigated the effects of JA2 (5 mg/kg) on the responses of mean arterial pressure to bradykinin, angiotensin I, and angiotensin II in conscious rabbits. The depressor responses to both low (10 ng/kg) and high (100 ng/kg) doses of bradykinin were increased 7.0 +/- 2.7-fold and 1.5 +/- 0.3-fold, respectively, during the 30 minutes after JA2 administration (mean+/-SEM, n=8). Bradykinin potentiation was undiminished 4 hours after JA2 injection. In contrast, the hypertensive effects of angiotensins I and II were unaltered, indicating that the bradykinin-potentiating effects were not due to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition. These data suggest that JA2 is not only a potent and specific inhibitor of EP24.15 and EP24.16 but is also stable in vivo. Furthermore, the potentiation of bradykinin-induced hypotension by JA2 suggests for the first time a role for one or both of these peptidases in the metabolism of bradykinin in the circulation.

Passive smoking and lung cancer: a cumulative meta-analysis

Objective: To review the epidemiological evidence for the association between passive smoking and lung cancer. Method: Primary studies and meta-analyses examining the relationship between passive smoking and lung cancer were identified through a computerised literature search of Medline and Embase, secondary references, and experts in the field of passive smoking. Primary studies meeting the inclusion criteria were meta-analysed. Results From 1981 to the end of 1999 there have been 76 primary epidemiological studies of passive smoking and lung cancer, and 20 meta-analyses. There were 43 primary studies that met the inclusion criteria for this meta-analysis; more studies than previous assessments. The pooled relative risk (RR) for never-smoking women exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) from spouses, compared with unexposed never-smoking women was 1.29 (95% CI 1.17-1.43). Sequential cumulative meta-analysed results for each year from 1981 were calculated: since 1992 the RR has been greater than 1.25. For Western industrialised countries the RR for never-smoking women exposed to ETS compared with unexposed never-smoking women, was 1.21 (95% CI 1.10-1.33). Previously published international spousal meta-analyses have all produced statistically significant RRs greater than 1.17. Conclusions The abundance of evidence in this paper, and the consistency of findings across domestic and workplace primary studies, dosimetric extrapolations and meta-analyses, clearly indicates that non-smokers exposed to ETS are at increased risk of lung cancer. Implications: The recommended public health policy is for a total ban on smoking in enclosed public places and work sites.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

Mammography screening participation: effects of a media campaign targeting Italian-speaking women

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of a radio and newspaper campaign encouraging Italian-speaking women aged 50-69 years to attend a population-based mammography screening program. Methods: A series of radio scripts and newspaper advertisements ran weekly in the Italian-language media over two, four-week periods. Monthly mammography screens were analysed to determine if numbers of Italian-speaking women in the program increased during the two campaign periods, using interrupted time series regression analysis. A survey of Italian-speaking women attending BreastScreen NSW during the campaign period (n=240) investigated whether individuals had heard or seen the advertisements. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the number of initial or subsequent mammograms in Italian-speaking women between the campaign periods and the period prior to (or after) the campaign. Twenty per cent of respondents cited the Italian media campaign as a prompt to attend. Fifty per cent had heard the radio ad and 30% had seen the newspaper ad encouraging Italian-speaking women to attend BSNSW. The most common prompt to attend was the BSNSW invitation letter, followed by information or recommendation from a GP. Conclusion: Radio and newspaper advertisements developed for the Italian community did not significantly increase attendance to BSNSW. Implications: Measures of program effectiveness based on self-report may not correspond to aggregate screening behaviour. The development of the media campaign in conjunction with the Italian community, and the provision of appropriate levels of resourcing, did not ensure the media campaign's success.