Industrial Structure, Trade and Regional Economics : Market Segmentation

We consider a general equilibrium model a la Bhaskar (Review of Economic Studies 2002): there are complementarities across sectors, each of which comprise (many) heterogenous monopolistically competitive firms. Bhaskar's model is extended in two directions: production requires capital, and labour markets are segmented. Labour market segmentation models the difficulties of labour migrating across international barriers (in a trade context) or from a poor region to a richer one (in a regional context), whilst the assumption of a single capital market means that capital flows freely between countries or regions. The model is solved analytically and a closed form solution is provided. Adding labour market segmentation to Bhaskar's two-tier industrial structure allows us to study, inter alia, the impact of competition regulations on wages and - financial flows both in the regional and international context, and the output, welfare and financial implications of relaxing immigration laws. The analytical approach adopted allows us, not only to sign the effect of policies, but also to quantify their effects. Introducing capital as a factor of production improves the realism of the model and refi nes its empirically testable implications.

The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04

This study examines the inter-industry wage structure of the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 by estimating the growth of average real wages for production workers by industry. In order to estimate the growth rates, the study adopts a methodological framework that differs from other studies in that the time series properties of the concerned variables are closely considered in order to obtain meaningful estimates of growth that are unbiased and (asymptotically) efficient. Using wage data on 51 manufacturing industries at three digit level of the National Industrial Classification 1998 (India), our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real wages per worker that are deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential structural break(s). Our findings show that the inter-industry wage structure in India has changed a lot in the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 and that it provides some evidence that the inter-industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post-reforms period. Thus this paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when studying any relationship between reforms and wages.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Long-term effects of cannabis on brain structure.

The dose-dependent toxicity of the main psychoactive component of cannabis in brain regions rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors is well known in animal studies. However, research in humans does not show common findings across studies regarding the brain regions that are affected after long-term exposure to cannabis. In the present study, we investigate (using Voxel-based Morphometry) gray matter changes in a group of regular cannabis smokers in comparison with a group of occasional smokers matched by the years of cannabis use. We provide evidence that regular cannabis use is associated with gray matter volume reduction in the medial temporal cortex, temporal pole, parahippocampal gyrus, insula, and orbitofrontal cortex; these regions are rich in cannabinoid CB1 receptors and functionally associated with motivational, emotional, and affective processing. Furthermore, these changes correlate with the frequency of cannabis use in the 3 months before inclusion in the study. The age of onset of drug use also influences the magnitude of these changes. Significant gray matter volume reduction could result either from heavy consumption unrelated to the age of onset or instead from recreational cannabis use initiated at an adolescent age. In contrast, the larger gray matter volume detected in the cerebellum of regular smokers without any correlation with the monthly consumption of cannabis may be related to developmental (ontogenic) processes that occur in adolescence.

The contribution of aging to the understanding of the dimensionality of executive functions.

It has been reported in the literature that executive functions may be fractioned into updating, shifting, and inhibition. The present study aimed to explore whether these executive sub-components can be identified in a more age-heterogeneous sample and see if they are prone to an age-related decline. We tested the performances of 81 individuals aged from 18 to 88 years old in each executive sub-component, working memory, fluid intelligence and processing speed. Correlation analysis revealed only a slight positive relationship between the two updating measures. A linear decrement with age was observed only for two complex executive tests. Tasks indexing working memory, processing speed and fluid intelligence showed a stronger linear decline with age than executive tasks. In conclusion, our results did not replicate the executive structure known from the literature, and revealed that decrement in executive function is not an unavoidable concomitant of aging but rather concerns specific executive tasks.

Structure and diversity of endoparasitic infracommunities and the trophic level of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Schizodon borelli (Osteichthyes) of the high Paraná river

One hundred and ten specimens of Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Pimelodidae) and 582 specimens of Schizodon borelli (Anostomidae) collected in the high Paraná River were analyzed. On necropsy 74% of P. corruscans were found to be parasitized; proteocephalidean cestodes presented the greatest number. With regard to S. borelli, the percentage of parasitism reached 19.42% and the nematode Cucullanus pinnai was the most abundant. The absence of correlation between the endoparasitic diversity and the standard length of the two host species indicates that each one presents homogeneity in alimentary behaviour during all its life time, permiting the uniform recruitment of the same species of endoparasites during all its ontogenetic development. Independence of diversity values in relation to sex of P. corruscans and S. borelli evidences that the ecological relationships are similar between males and females in these species. Both host's infrapopulations presented a typical overdispersed pattern of distribution with isolationist characteristics.

The population structure of Trypanosoma cruzi: expanded analysis of 54 strains using eight polymorphic CA-repeat microsatellites

Recently we cloned and sequenced the first eight Trypanosoma cruzi polymorphic microsatellite loci and studied 31 clones and strains to obtain valuable information about the population structure of the parasite. We have now studied 23 further strains, increasing from 11 to 31 the number of strains obtained from patients with chronic Chagas disease. This expanded set of 54 strains and clones analyzed with the eight microsatellites markers confirmed the previously observed diploidy, clonal population organization and very high polymorphism of T. cruzi. Moreover, this new study disclosed two new features of the population genetic structure of T. cruzi. The first was the discovery that, similarly to what we had previously shown for strains isolated from insect vectors, mammals and humans with acute disease, isolates from patients in the chronic phase of Chagas disease could also be multiclonal, albeit at a reduced proportion. Second, when we used parsimony to display the genetic relationship among the clonal lineages in an unrooted Wagner network we observed, like before, a good correlation of the tree topography with the classification in three clusters on the basis of single locus analysis of the ribosomal RNA genes. However, a significant new finding was that now the strains belonging to cluster 2 split in two distant sub-clusters. This observation suggests that the evolutionary history of T. cruzi may be more complex than we previously thought.

Review of the Recommendations of Protecting Our Future: Report of the Working Group on Elder Abuse

Protecting Our Future: Report of the Working Group on Elder Abuse (DOHC, 2002) was a seminal document setting out a framework and programme of work in relation to elder abuse. Prior to Protecting Our Future, the issue of elder abuse had not been explicitly articulated as a priority of health and social policy. The report included recommendations in 13 wide-ranging areas: the link to wider policy; policy on elder abuse; staff structure; legislation; impaired capacity; carers; awareness, education and training; financial abuse; advocacy; implementation; research and education; reporting abuse. It also recommended that progress in implementing Protecting Our Future should be reviewed. Download document here Download Action Plan here

Strategic Review of Medical Training and Career Structure Final Report

  Final report of the Strategic Review Working Group chaired by Professor Brian MacCraith (President, DCU) This final report focuses on issues relating to strategic medical workforce planning and career planning and mentoring supports for trainee doctors and makes recommendations. It also addresses specific issues in relation to the specialties of public health medicine, general practice and the community-based aspects of psychiatry.   Download the report here.  

Comparison of indices proposed as criteria for assigning skin notation

OBJECTIVES: Skin notations are used as a hazard identification tool to flag chemicals associated with a potential risk related to transdermal penetration. The transparency and rigorousness of the skin notation assignment process have recently been questioned. We compared different approaches proposed as criteria for these notations as a starting point for improving and systematizing current practice. METHODS: In this study, skin notations, dermal acute lethal dose 50 in mammals (LD(50)s) and two dermal risk indices derived from previously published work were compared using the lists of Swiss maximum allowable concentrations (MACs) and threshold limit values (TLVs) from the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). The indices were both based on quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) estimation of transdermal fluxes. One index compared the cumulative dose received through skin given specific exposure surface and duration to that received through lungs following inhalation 8 h at the MAC or TLV. The other index estimated the blood level increase caused by adding skin exposure to the inhalation route at kinetic steady state. Dermal-to-other route ratios of LD(50) were calculated as secondary indices of dermal penetrability. RESULTS: The working data set included 364 substances. Depending on the subdataset, agreement between the Swiss and ACGIH skin notations varied between 82 and 87%. Chemicals with a skin notation were more likely to have higher dermal risk indices and lower dermal LD(50) than chemicals without a notation (probabilities between 60 and 70%). The risk indices, based on cumulative dose and kinetic steady state, respectively, appeared proportional up to a constant independent of chemical-specific properties. They agreed well with dermal LD(50)s (Spearman correlation coefficients -0.42 to -0.43). Dermal-to-other routes LD(50) ratios were moderately associated with QSAR-based transdermal fluxes (Spearman correlation coefficients -0.2 to -0.3). CONCLUSIONS: The plausible but variable relationship between current skin notations and the different approaches tested confirm the need to improve current skin notations. QSAR-based risk indices and dermal toxicity data might be successfully integrated in a systematic alternative to current skin notations for detecting chemicals associated with potential dermal risk in the workplace. [Authors]

Population structure of the malaria vector Anopheles darlingi in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon, based on mitochondrial DNA

Anopheles darlingi is the most important Brazilian malaria vector, with a widespread distribution in the Amazon forest. Effective strategies for vector control could be better developed through knowledge of its genetic structure and gene flow among populations, to assess the vector diversity and competence in transmitting Plasmodium. The aim of this study was to assess the genetic diversity of An. darlingi collected at four locations in Porto Velho, by sequencing a fragment of the ND4 mitochondrial gene. From 218 individual mosquitoes, we obtained 20 different haplotypes with a diversity index of 0.756, equivalent to that found in other neotropical anophelines. The analysis did not demonstrate significant population structure. However, haplotype diversity within some populations seems to be over-represented, suggesting the presence of sub-populations, but the presence of highly represented haplotypes complicates this analysis. There was no clear correlation among genetic and geographical distance and there were differences in relation to seasonality, which is important for malarial epidemiology.

Impact of Ownership Structure on the Performance of China’s Feed Mill Sector, April 2005

In the decade of the 1990s, China’s feed sector became increasingly privatized, more feed mills opened, and the scale of operation expanded. Capacity utilization remained low and multi-ministerial supervision was still prevalent, but the feed mill sector showed a positive performance overall, posting a growth rate of 11 percent per year. Profit margin over sales was within allowable rates set by the government of China at 3 to 5 percent. Financial efficiency improved, with a 20 percent quicker turnover of working capital. Average technical efficiency was 0.805, as more efficient feed mills increasingly gained production shares. This study finds evidence that the increasing privatization explains the improved performance of the commercial feed mill sector. The drivers that shaped the feed mill sector in the 1990s have changed with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. With the new policy regime in place, the study foresees that, assuming an adequate supply of soy meal and an excess capacity in the feed mill sector, it is likely that China will allow corn imports up to the tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 7.2 mmt since the in-quota rate is very low at 1 percent. However, when the TRQ is exceeded, the import duty jumps to a prohibitive out-quota rate of 65 percent. With an import duty for meat of only 10 to 12 percent, China would have a strong incentive to import meat products directly rather than bringing in expensive corn to produce meat domestically. This would be further reinforced if structural transformation in the swine sector would narrow the cost differential between domestic and imported pork.

Heritability of left ventricular structure and function in Caucasian families.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the heritability as well as genetic and environmental correlations of left ventricular (LV) structural and functional traits in complex pedigrees of a Caucasian population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomly recruited 459 white European subjects from 52 families (50% women; mean age 45 years). LV structure was measured by M-mode and 2D echocardiography and LV function was measured by conventional Doppler and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Other measurements included blood pressure, anthropometric, and biochemical measurements. We estimated the heritability of LV traits while adjusting for covariables, including sex, age, body height and weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and heart rate. With full adjustment, heritability of LV mass was 0.23 (P= 0.025). The TDI-derived mitral annular velocities Ea and Aa showed moderate heritability (h(2)= 0.36 and 0.53, respectively), whereas the mitral inflow A peak had weak heritability (h(2) = 0.25) and the E peak was not heritable (h(2) = 0.11). We partitioned the total phenotypic correlation when it reached significance, into a genetic and an environmental component. The genetic correlations were 0.61 between the E and Ea peaks and 0.90 between the A and Aa peaks. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated moderate heritability for LV mass as well as the mitral annular Ea and Aa peaks. We also found significant genetic correlations between the E and Ea peaks and between the A and Aa peaks. Our current findings support the ongoing research to map and detect genetic variants that contribute to the variation in LV mass and other LV structural and functional phenotypes.