Aplicació en línia d'un sistema variable de control multivariable en un Reactor ..

L’objecte del present treball és la realització d’una aplicació que permeti portar a terme el control estadístic multivariable en línia d’una planta SBR. Aquesta eina ha de permetre realitzar un anàlisi estadístic multivariable complet del lot en procés, de l’últim lot finalitzat i de la resta de lots processats a la planta. L’aplicació s’ha de realitzar en l’entorn LabVIEW. L’elecció d’aquest programa ve condicionada per l’actualització del mòdul de monitorització de la planta que s’està desenvolupant en aquest mateix entorn

Variable mixed-mode delamination in composite laminates under fatigue conditions: testing & analysis

La majoria de les fallades en elements estructurals són degudes a càrrega per fatiga. En conseqüència, la fatiga mecànica és un factor clau per al disseny d'elements mecànics. En el cas de materials compòsits laminats, el procés de fallada per fatiga inclou diferents mecanismes de dany que resulten en la degradació del material. Un dels mecanismes de dany més importants és la delaminació entre capes del laminat. En el cas de components aeronàutics, les plaques de composit estan exposades a impactes i les delaminacions apareixen facilment en un laminat després d'un impacte. Molts components fets de compòsit tenen formes corbes, superposició de capes i capes amb diferents orientacions que fan que la delaminació es propagui en un mode mixt que depen de la grandària de la delaminació. És a dir, les delaminacions generalment es propaguen en mode mixt variable. És per això que és important desenvolupar nous mètodes per caracteritzar el creixement subcrític en mode mixt per fatiga de les delaminacions. El principal objectiu d'aquest treball és la caracterització del creixement en mode mixt variable de les delaminacions en compòsits laminats per efecte de càrregues a fatiga. Amb aquest fi, es proposa un nou model per al creixement per fatiga de la delaminació en mode mixt. Contràriament als models ja existents, el model que es proposa es formula d'acord a la variació no-monotònica dels paràmetres de propagació amb el mode mixt observada en diferents resultats experimentals. A més, es du a terme un anàlisi de l'assaig mixed-mode end load split (MMELS), la característica més important del qual és la variació del mode mixt a mesura que la delaminació creix. Per a aquest anàlisi, es tenen em compte dos mètodes teòrics presents en la literatura. No obstant, les expressions resultants per l'assaig MMELS no són equivalents i les diferències entre els dos mètodes poden ser importants, fins a 50 vegades. Per aquest motiu, en aquest treball es porta a terme un anàlisi alternatiu més acurat del MMELS per tal d'establir una comparació. Aquest anàlisi alternatiu es basa en el mètode dels elements finits i virtual crack closure technique (VCCT). D'aquest anàlisi en resulten importants aspectes a considerar per a la bona caracterització de materials utilitzant l'assaig MMELS. Durant l'estudi s'ha dissenyat i construït un utillatge per l'assaig MMELS. Per a la caracterització experimental de la propagació per fatiga de delaminacions en mode mixt variable s'utilitzen diferents provetes de laminats carboni/epoxy essencialment unidireccionals. També es du a terme un anàlisi fractogràfic d'algunes de les superfícies de fractura per delaminació. Els resultats experimentals són comparats amb les prediccions del model proposat per la propagació per fatiga d'esquerdes interlaminars.

Geostatistics for constrained variables: positive data, compositions and probabilities. Applications to environmental hazard monitoring

Aquesta tesi estudia com estimar la distribució de les variables regionalitzades l'espai mostral i l'escala de les quals admeten una estructura d'espai Euclidià. Apliquem el principi del treball en coordenades: triem una base ortonormal, fem estadística sobre les coordenades de les dades, i apliquem els output a la base per tal de recuperar un resultat en el mateix espai original. Aplicant-ho a les variables regionalitzades, obtenim una aproximació única consistent, que generalitza les conegudes propietats de les tècniques de kriging a diversos espais mostrals: dades reals, positives o composicionals (vectors de components positives amb suma constant) són tractades com casos particulars. D'aquesta manera, es generalitza la geostadística lineal, i s'ofereix solucions a coneguts problemes de la no-lineal, tot adaptant la mesura i els criteris de representativitat (i.e., mitjanes) a les dades tractades. L'estimador per a dades positives coincideix amb una mitjana geomètrica ponderada, equivalent a l'estimació de la mediana, sense cap dels problemes del clàssic kriging lognormal. El cas composicional ofereix solucions equivalents, però a més permet estimar vectors de probabilitat multinomial. Amb una aproximació bayesiana preliminar, el kriging de composicions esdevé també una alternativa consistent al kriging indicador. Aquesta tècnica s'empra per estimar funcions de probabilitat de variables qualsevol, malgrat que sovint ofereix estimacions negatives, cosa que s'evita amb l'alternativa proposada. La utilitat d'aquest conjunt de tècniques es comprova estudiant la contaminació per amoníac a una estació de control automàtic de la qualitat de l'aigua de la conca de la Tordera, i es conclou que només fent servir les tècniques proposades hom pot detectar en quins instants l'amoni es transforma en amoníac en una concentració superior a la legalment permesa.

Attentional orienting to biologically fear-relevant stimuli: data from eye tracking

Snakes are thought as fear-relevant stimuli (biologically prepared to be associated with fear) which can lead to an enhanced attentional capture when compared fear-irrelevant stimuli. Inherent limitations related to the key-press behaviour might be bypassed with the measurement of eye movements, since they are more closely related to attentional processes than reaction times. An eye tracking technique was combined with the flicker paradigm in two studies. A sample of university students was gathered. In both studies, an instruction to detect changes between the pair of scenes was given. Attentional orienting for the changing element in the scene was analyzed, as well the role of fear of snakes as a moderator variable. The results for both studies revealed a significant shorter time to first fixation for snake stimuli when compared to control stimuli. A facilitating effect of fear of snakes was also found for snakes, presenting the highly fear participants a shorter a time to first fixation for snake stimuli when compared to low-feared participants. The results are in line with current research that supports the advantage of snakes to grab attention due their evo-biological significance.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

A regime-dependent balanced control variable based on potential vorticity

In this paper it is argued that rotational wind is not the best choice of leading control variable for variational data assimilation, and an alternative is suggested and tested. A rotational wind parameter is used in most global variational assimilation systems as a pragmatic way of approximately representing the balanced component of the assimilation increments. In effect, rotational wind is treated as a proxy for potential vorticity, but one that it is potentially not a good choice in flow regimes characterised by small Burger number. This paper reports on an alternative set of control variables which are based around potential vorticity. This gives rise to a new formulation of the background error covariances for the Met Office's variational assimilation system, which leads to flow dependency. It uses similar balance relationships to traditional schemes, but recognises the existence of unbalanced rotational wind which is used with a new anti-balance relationship. The new scheme is described and its performance is evaluated and compared to a traditional scheme using a sample of diagnostics.

Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Co-kriging when the soil and ancillary data are not co-located

Data such as digitized aerial photographs, electrical conductivity and yield are intensive and relatively inexpensive to obtain compared with collecting soil data by sampling. If such ancillary data are co-regionalized with the soil data they should be suitable for co-kriging. The latter requires that information for both variables is co-located at several locations; this is rarely so for soil and ancillary data. To solve this problem, we have derived values for the ancillary variable at the soil sampling locations by averaging the values within a radius of 15 m, taking the nearest-neighbour value, kriging over 5 m blocks, and punctual kriging. The cross-variograms from these data with clay content and also the pseudo cross-variogram were used to co-krige to validation points and the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) were calculated. In general, the data averaged within 15m and the punctually kriged values resulted in more accurate predictions.

Bias from farmer self-selection in genetically modified crop productivity estimates: Evidence from Indian data

In the continuing debate over the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on farmers of developing countries, it is important to accurately measure magnitudes such as farm-level yield gains from GM crop adoption. Yet most farm-level studies in the literature do not control for farmer self-selection, a potentially important source of bias in such estimates. We use farm-level panel data from Indian cotton farmers to investigate the yield effect of GM insect-resistant cotton. We explicitly take into account the fact that the choice of crop variety is an endogenous variable which might lead to bias from self-selection. A production function is estimated using a fixed-effects model to control for selection bias. Our results show that efficient farmers adopt Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton at a higher rate than their less efficient peers. This suggests that cross-sectional estimates of the yield effect of Bt cotton, which do not control for self-selection effects, are likely to be biased upwards. However, after controlling for selection bias, we still find that there is a significant positive yield effect from adoption of Bt cotton that more than offsets the additional cost of Bt seed.

Ranking efficiency units in DEA using bootstrapping an applied analysis for Slovenian farm data

This article explores how data envelopment analysis (DEA), along with a smoothed bootstrap method, can be used in applied analysis to obtain more reliable efficiency rankings for farms. The main focus is the smoothed homogeneous bootstrap procedure introduced by Simar and Wilson (1998) to implement statistical inference for the original efficiency point estimates. Two main model specifications, constant and variable returns to scale, are investigated along with various choices regarding data aggregation. The coefficient of separation (CoS), a statistic that indicates the degree of statistical differentiation within the sample, is used to demonstrate the findings. The CoS suggests a substantive dependency of the results on the methodology and assumptions employed. Accordingly, some observations are made on how to conduct DEA in order to get more reliable efficiency rankings, depending on the purpose for which they are to be used. In addition, attention is drawn to the ability of the SLICE MODEL, implemented in GAMS, to enable researchers to overcome the computational burdens of conducting DEA (with bootstrapping).

Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

Drivers of fund performance: a panel data analysis

The principle aim of this research is to elucidate the factors driving the total rate of return of non-listed funds using a panel data analytical framework. In line with previous results, we find that core funds exhibit lower yet more stable returns than value-added and, in particular, opportunistic funds, both cross-sectionally and over time. After taking into account overall market exposure, as measured by weighted market returns, the excess returns of value-added and opportunity funds are likely to stem from: high leverage, high exposure to development, active asset management and investment in specialized property sectors. A random effects estimation of the panel data model largely confirms the findings obtained from the fixed effects model. Again, the country and sector property effect shows the strongest significance in explaining total returns. The stock market variable is negative which hints at switching effects between competing asset classes. For opportunity funds, on average, the returns attributable to gearing are three times higher than those for value added funds and over five times higher than for core funds. Overall, there is relatively strong evidence indicating that country and sector allocation, style, gearing and fund size combinations impact on the performance of unlisted real estate funds.

Correlations of control variables in variational data assimilation

Variational data assimilation systems for numerical weather prediction rely on a transformation of model variables to a set of control variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated. Most implementations of this transformation are based on the assumption that the balanced part of the flow can be represented by the vorticity. However, this assumption is likely to break down in dynamical regimes characterized by low Burger number. It has recently been proposed that a variable transformation based on potential vorticity should lead to control variables that are uncorrelated over a wider range of regimes. In this paper we test the assumption that a transform based on vorticity and one based on potential vorticity produce an uncorrelated set of control variables. Using a shallow-water model we calculate the correlations between the transformed variables in the different methods. We show that the control variables resulting from a vorticity-based transformation may retain large correlations in some dynamical regimes, whereas a potential vorticity based transformation successfully produces a set of uncorrelated control variables. Calculations of spatial correlations show that the benefit of the potential vorticity transformation is linked to its ability to capture more accurately the balanced component of the flow.

Application of logistic regression for fault analysis in an industrial printing process

A statistical technique for fault analysis in industrial printing is reported. The method specifically deals with binary data, for which the results of the production process fall into two categories, rejected or accepted. The method is referred to as logistic regression, and is capable of predicting future fault occurrences by the analysis of current measurements from machine parts sensors. Individual analysis of each type of fault can determine which parts of the plant have a significant influence on the occurrence of such faults; it is also possible to infer which measurable process parameters have no significant influence on the generation of these faults. Information derived from the analysis can be helpful in the operator's interpretation of the current state of the plant. Appropriate actions may then be taken to prevent potential faults from occurring. The algorithm is being implemented as part of an applied self-learning expert system.

Conditioning and preconditioning of the variational data assimilation problem

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres use numerical models of the atmospheric flow to forecast future weather states from an estimate of the current state. Variational data assimilation (VAR) is used commonly to determine an optimal state estimate that miminizes the errors between observations of the dynamical system and model predictions of the flow. The rate of convergence of the VAR scheme and the sensitivity of the solution to errors in the data are dependent on the condition number of the Hessian of the variational least-squares objective function. The traditional formulation of VAR is ill-conditioned and hence leads to slow convergence and an inaccurate solution. In practice, operational NWP centres precondition the system via a control variable transform to reduce the condition number of the Hessian. In this paper we investigate the conditioning of VAR for a single, periodic, spatially-distributed state variable. We present theoretical bounds on the condition number of the original and preconditioned Hessians and hence demonstrate the improvement produced by the preconditioning. We also investigate theoretically the effect of observation position and error variance on the preconditioned system and show that the problem becomes more ill-conditioned with increasingly dense and accurate observations. Finally, we confirm the theoretical results in an operational setting by giving experimental results from the Met Office variational system.