A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Bryozoan populations reflect nutrient enrichment and productivity gradients in rivers

P>1. The hypothesis that nutrient enrichment will affect bryozoan abundance was tested using two complementary investigations; a field-based method determining bryozoan abundance in 20 rivers of different nutrient concentrations by deploying statoblast (dormant propagule) traps and an experimental laboratory microcosm study measuring bryozoan growth and mortality. These two methods confirmed independently that increased nutrient concentrations in water promote increases in the biomass of freshwater bryozoans. 2. Statoblasts of the genus Plumatella were recorded in all rivers, regardless of nutrient concentrations, demonstrating that freshwater bryozoans are widespread. Concentrations of Plumatella statoblasts were high in rivers with high nutrient concentrations relative to those with low to moderate nutrient concentrations. Regression analyses indicated that phosphorus concentrations, in particular, significantly influenced statoblast concentrations. 3. Concentrations of Lophopus crystallinus statoblasts were also higher in sites characterised by high nutrient concentrations. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of L. crystallinus statoblasts was significantly associated with decreasing altitude and increasing phosphorus concentrations. This apparently rare species was found in nine rivers (out of 20), seven of which were new sites for L. crystallinus. 4. Growth rates of Fredericella sultana in laboratory microcosms increased with increasing nutrient concentration and high mortality rates were associated with low nutrient concentrations. 5. Our results indicate that bryozoans respond to increasing nutrient concentrations by increased growth, resulting in higher biomasses in enriched waters. We also found that an important component of bryozoan diets can derive from food items lacking chlorophyll a. Finally, bryozoans may be used as independent proxies for inferring trophic conditions, a feature that may be especially valuable in reconstructing historical environments by assessing the abundance of statoblasts in sediment cores.

The use of image analysis to estimate population growth rate in Daphnia magna

1. Population growth rate (PGR) is central to the theory of population ecology and is crucial for projecting population trends in conservation biology, pest management and wildlife harvesting. Furthermore, PGR is increasingly used to assess the effects of stressors. Image analysis that can automatically count and measure photographed individuals offers a potential methodology for estimating PGR. 2. This study evaluated two ways in which the PGR of Daphnia magna, exposed to different stressors, can be estimated using an image analysis system. The first method estimated PGR as the ratio of counts of individuals obtained at two different times, while the second method estimated PGR as the ratio of population sizes at two different times, where size is measured by the sum of the individuals' surface areas, i.e. total population surface area. This method is attractive if surface area is correlated with reproductive value (RV), as it is for D. magna, because of the theoretical result that PGR is the rate at which the population RV increases. 3. The image analysis system proved reliable and reproducible in counting populations of up to 440 individuals in 5 L of water. Image counts correlated well with manual counts but with a systematic underestimate of about 30%. This does not affect accuracy when estimating PGR as the ratio of two counts. Area estimates of PGR correlated well with count estimates, but were systematically higher, possibly reflecting their greater accuracy in the study situation. 4. Analysis of relevant scenarios suggested the correlation between RV and body size will generally be good for organisms in which fecundity correlates with body size. In these circumstances, area estimation of PGR is theoretically better than count estimation. 5. Synthesis and applications. There are both theoretical and practical advantages to area estimation of population growth rate when individuals' reproductive values are consistently well correlated with their surface areas. Because stressors may affect both the number and quality of individuals, area estimation of population growth rate should improve the accuracy of predicting stress impacts at the population level.

Structural studies of lanthanide complexes with tetradentate nitrogen ligands

Complexes have been synthesised with bis(2-pyridine carboxaldehyde) ethylenediimine (1) and bis(2-pyridine carboxaldehyde)propylene-1,3-diimine (2) with all of the available lanthanide trinitrates. Crystal structures were obtained for all but one complex with 1 and for all but one complex with 2. Four distinct structural types were established for 1 but only two for 2, although in all cases the structures contained one ligand bound to the metal in a tetradentate fashion. With 1, the four different structures of the lanthanide(III) nitrate complexes included 11-coordinate [Ln(1)(NO3)(3)(H2O)] for Ln = La; 10 coordinate [Ln(1)(NO3)(3)(H2O)] with one monodentate and two bidentate nitrates for Ln = Ce, then 10-coordinate [Ln(1)(NO3)(3)] for Ln = Pr-Yb with three bidentate nitrates; and 9-coordinate [Ln(1)(NO3)(3)] with one monodentate and two bidentate nitrates for Ln = Lu. On the other hand for 2 only two distinct types of structure are obtained, the first type with Ln = La-Pr and the second type for Ln = Sm-Lu, although all are 10-coordinate with stoichiometry [Ln(2)(NO3)(3)]. The difference between the two types is in the disposition of the ligand relative to the nitrates. With the larger lanthanides La-Pr the ligand is found on one side of the coordination sphere with the three nitrate anions on the other. In these structures, the ligand is folded such that the angle between the two pyridine rings approaches 90degrees, while with the smaller lanthanides Sm-Lu, two nitrates are found on one side of the ligand and one nitrate on the other and the ligand is in an extended conformation such that the two pyridine rings are close to being coplanar. In both series of structures, the Ln-N and Ln-O bond lengths were consistent with the lanthanide contraction though there are significant variations between ostensibly equivalent bonds which are indicative of intramolecular hydrogen bonding and steric crowding in the complexes. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the torsional interaction of wire and polyester fibre ropes used for offshore moorings

Oil rig mooring lines have traditionally consisted of chain and wire rope. As production has moved into deeper water it has proved advantageous to incorporate sections of fibre rope into the mooring lines. However, this has highlighted torsional interaction problems that can occur when ropes of different types are joined together. This paper describes a method by which the torsional properties of ropes can be modelled and can then be used to calculate the rotation and torque for two ropes connected in series. The method uses numerical representations of the torsional characteristics of both the ropes, and equates the torque generated in each rope under load to determine the rotation at the connection point. Data from rope torsional characterization tests have been analysed to derive constants used in the numerical model. Constants are presented for: a six-strand wire rope; a torque-balanced fibre rope; and a fibre rope that has been designed to be torque-matched to stranded wire rope. The calculation method has been verified by comparing predicted rotations with measured test values. Worked examples are given for a six-strand wire rope connected, firstly, to a torque-balanced fibre rope that offers little rotational restraint, and, secondly, to a fibre rope whose torsional properties are matched to that of the wire rope.

Integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behavioural therapy for people with psychosis and comorbid substance misuse: randomised controlled trial

Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy in addition to standard care for patients with psychosis and a co-morbid substance use problem. Design Two-centre, open, rater-blind randomised controlled trial Setting UK Secondary Care Participants 327 patients with clinical diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizophreniform or schizoaffective disorder and DSM-IV diagnoses of drug and/or alcohol dependence or abuse Interventions Participants were randomly allocated to integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy or standard care. Therapy has two phases. Phase one – “motivation building” – concerns engaging the patient, then exploring and resolving ambivalence for change in substance use. Phase two –“Action” – supports and facilitates change using cognitive behavioural approaches. Up to 26 therapy sessions were delivered over one year. Main outcomes The primary outcome was death from any cause or admission to hospital in the 12 months after therapy. Secondary outcomes were frequency and amount of substance use (Timeline Followback), readiness to change, perceived negative consequences of use, psychotic symptom ratings, number and duration of relapses, global assessment of functioning and deliberate self harm, at 12 and 24 months, with additional Timeline Followback assessments at 6 and 18 months. Analysis was by intention-to-treat with robust treatment effect estimates. Results 327 participants were randomised. 326 (99.7%) were assessed on the primary outcome, 246 (75.2%) on main secondary outcomes at 24 months. Regarding the primary outcome, there was no beneficial treatment effect on hospital admissions/ death during follow-up, with 20.2% (33/163) of controls and 23.3% (38/163) of the therapy group deceased or admitted (adjusted odds-ratio 1.16; P= 0.579; 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 1.99). For secondary outcomes there was no treatment effect on frequency of substance use or perceived negative consequences, but a statistically significant effect of therapy on amount used per substance-using day (adjusted odds-ratios: (a) for main substance 1.50; P=0.016; 1.08 to 2.09, (b) all substances 1.48; P=0.017; 1.07 to 2.05). There was a statistically significant treatment effect on readiness to change use at 12 months (adjusted odds-ratio 2.05; P=0.004; 1.26 to 3.31), not maintained at 24 months. There were no treatment effects on assessed clinical outcomes. Conclusions Integrated motivational interviewing and cognitive behaviour therapy for people with psychosis and substance misuse does not improve outcome in terms of hospitalisation, symptom outcomes or functioning. It does result in a reduction in amount of substance use which is maintained over the year’s follow up. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN14404480

Do in vivo terahertz imaging systems comply with safety guidelines?

Techniques for the coherent generation and detection of electromagnetic radiation in the far infrared, or terahertz, region of the electromagnetic spectrum have recently developed rapidly and may soon be applied for in vivo medical imaging. Both continuous wave and pulsed imaging systems are under development, with terahertz pulsed imaging being the more common method. Typically a pump and probe technique is used, with picosecond pulses of terahertz radiation generated from femtosecond infrared laser pulses, using an antenna or nonlinear crystal. After interaction with the subject either by transmission or reflection, coherent detection is achieved when the terahertz beam is combined with the probe laser beam. Raster scanning of the subject leads to an image data set comprising a time series representing the pulse at each pixel. A set of parametric images may be calculated, mapping the values of various parameters calculated from the shape of the pulses. A safety analysis has been performed, based on current guidelines for skin exposure to radiation of wavelengths 2.6 µm–20 mm (15 GHz–115 THz), to determine the maximum permissible exposure (MPE) for such a terahertz imaging system. The international guidelines for this range of wavelengths are drawn from two U.S. standards documents. The method for this analysis was taken from the American National Standard for the Safe Use of Lasers (ANSI Z136.1), and to ensure a conservative analysis, parameters were drawn from both this standard and from the IEEE Standard for Safety Levels with Respect to Human Exposure to Radio Frequency Electromagnetic Fields (C95.1). The calculated maximum permissible average beam power was 3 mW, indicating that typical terahertz imaging systems are safe according to the current guidelines. Further developments may however result in systems that will exceed the calculated limit. Furthermore, the published MPEs for pulsed exposures are based on measurements at shorter wavelengths and with pulses of longer duration than those used in terahertz pulsed imaging systems, so the results should be treated with caution.

Application of logistic regression for fault analysis in an industrial printing process

A statistical technique for fault analysis in industrial printing is reported. The method specifically deals with binary data, for which the results of the production process fall into two categories, rejected or accepted. The method is referred to as logistic regression, and is capable of predicting future fault occurrences by the analysis of current measurements from machine parts sensors. Individual analysis of each type of fault can determine which parts of the plant have a significant influence on the occurrence of such faults; it is also possible to infer which measurable process parameters have no significant influence on the generation of these faults. Information derived from the analysis can be helpful in the operator's interpretation of the current state of the plant. Appropriate actions may then be taken to prevent potential faults from occurring. The algorithm is being implemented as part of an applied self-learning expert system.

Holocene variations in peatland methane cycling associated with the Asian summer monsoon system

Atmospheric methane concentrations decreased during the early to middle Holocene; however, the governing mechanisms remain controversial. Although it has been suggested that the mid-Holocene minimum methane emissions are associated with hydrological change, direct evidence is lacking. Here we report a new independent approach, linking hydrological change in peat sediments from the Tibetan Plateau to changes in archaeal diether concentrations and diploptene delta C-13 values as tracers for methanogenesis and methanotrophy, respectively. A minimum in inferred methanogenesis occurred during the mid-Holocene, which, locally, corresponds with the driest conditions of the Holocene, reflecting a minimum in Asian monsoon precipitation. The close coupling between precipitation and methanogenesis is validated by climate simulations, which also suggest a regionally widespread impact. Importantly, the minimum in methanogenesis is associated with a maximum in methanotrophy. Therefore, methane emissions in the Tibetan Plateau region were apparently lower during the mid-Holocene and partially controlled by interactions of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

One-step reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for the diagnosis of respiratory syncytial virus in children

Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is the main cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and children. Rapid diagnosis is required to permit appropriate care and treatment and to avoid unnecessary antibiotic use. Reverse transcriptase (RT-PCR) and indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) methods have been considered important tools for virus detection due to their high sensitivity and specificity. In order to maximize use-simplicity and minimize the risk of sample cross-contamination inherent in two-step techniques, a RT-PCR method using only a single tube to detect HRSV in clinical samples was developed. Nasopharyngeal aspirates from 226 patients with acute respiratory illness, ranging from infants to 5 years old, were collected at the University Hospital of the University of Sao Paulo (HU-USP), and tested using IFA, one-step RT-PCR, and semi-nested RT-PCR. One hundred and two (45.1%) samples were positive by at least one of the three methods, and 75 (33.2%) were positive by all methods: 92 (40.7%) were positive by one-step RT-PCR, 84 (37.2%) by IFA, and 96 (42.5%) by the semi-nested RT-PCR technique. One-step RT-PCR was shown to be fast, sensitive, and specific for RSV diagnosis, without the added inconvenience and risk of false positive results associated with semi-nested PCR. The combined use of these two methods enhances HRSV detection. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational point spread function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent; therefore, the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduce further complexity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the wavelength dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF, we find that the colour dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect: (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.

Accurate and Precise Zinc Isotope Ratio Measurements in Urban Aerosols

We developed an analytical method and constrained procedural boundary conditions that enable accurate and precise Zn isotope ratio measurements in urban aerosols. We also demonstrate the potential of this new isotope system for air pollutant source tracing. The procedural blank is around 5 ng and significantly lower than published methods due to a tailored ion chromatographic separation. Accurate mass bias correction using external correction with Cu is limited to Zn sample content of approximately 50 ng due to the combined effect of blank contribution of Cu and Zn from the ion exchange procedure and the need to maintain a Cu/Zn ratio of approximately 1. Mass bias is corrected for by applying the common analyte internal standardization method approach. Comparison with other mass bias correction methods demonstrates the accuracy of the method. The average precision of delta(66)Zn determinations in aerosols is around 0.05% per atomic mass unit. The method was tested on aerosols collected in Sin Paulo City, Brazil. The measurements reveal significant variations in delta(66)Zn(Imperial) ranging between -0.96 and -0.37% in coarse and between -1.04 and 0.02% in fine particular matter. This variability suggests that Zn isotopic compositions distinguish atmospheric sources. The isotopic light signature suggests traffic as the main source. We present further delta(66)Zn(Imperial) data for the standard reference material NIST SRM 2783 (delta 66Z(Imperial) = 0.26 +/- 0.10%).

Dinuclear Azide-Bridged Copper(II) Complex as Building Block for the Assembly of a 2D-Supramolecular Array

A novel Schiff base-copper(II) complex [Cu(2)L(2)(N(3))(2)](ClO(4))(2) 1, where L = (4-imidazolyl)ethylene-2-amino-1-ethylpyridine (apyhist), containing azide-bridges between adjacent copper ions in a dinuclear arrangement was isolated and characterized both in the solid state and in solution by X-ray crystallography and different spectroscopic techniques. Azide binding constants were estimated from titrations of the precursor [CuL(H(2)O)(2)](2+) solutions with sodium azide, giving rise to the azido-bridged species, [Cu(2)L(2)(N(3))(2)](2+). Raman spectra showed asymmetric stretching band at 2060 cm(-1), indicating the presence of azido ligands with a symmetric mu(1,) (1) binding geometry. EPA spectra, in frozen methanol/water solutions at 77 K, exhibited characteristic features of copper centers in tetragonal pyramidal coordination geometry, exhibiting magnetic interactions between them. Further, in solid state, two different values for magnetic coupling in this species were obtained, J/k = -(5.14 +/- 0.02) cm(-1) attributed to the mu(1, 1) azide-bridge mode, and J`z`/k = -(2.94 +/- 0.11) cm(-1) for the interaction between dinuclear moieties via water/perchorate bridges. Finally, an attempt was made to correlate structure and magnetic data for this dinuclear asymmetric end-on azido bridged-copper(II) 1 complex with those of another correlated dinuclear system, complex [Cu(2)L(2)Cl(2)](ClO(4))(2) 2, containing the same tridentate diimine ligand, but with chloro-bridged groups between the copper centres.

Systematic work environment management : experiences from implementation in Swedish small-scale enterprises

Small-scale enterprises face difficulties in fulfilling the regulations for organising Systematic Work Environment Management. This study compared three groups of small-scale manufacturing enterprises with and without support for implementing the provision. Two implementation methods, supervised and network method, were used. The third group worked according to their own ideas. Twenty-three enterprises participated. The effects of the implementation were evaluated after one year by semi-structured dialogue with the manager and safety representative. Each enterprise was classified on compliance with ten demands concerning the provision. The work environment was estimated by the WEST-method. Impact of the implementation on daily work was also studied. At the follow-up, the enterprises in the supervised method reported slightly more improvements in the fulfilment of the demands in the provision than the enterprises in the network method and the enterprises working on their own did. The effect of the project reached the employees faster in the enterprises with the supervised method. In general, the work environment improved to some extent in all enterprises. Extensive support to small-scale enterprises in terms of advise and networking aimed to fulfil the regulations of Systematic Work Environment Management had limited effect especially considering the cost of applying these methods.

The Capm and Fama-French models in Brazil: a comparative study

This paper confronts the Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM - and the 3-Factor Fama-French - FF - model using both Brazilian and US stock market data for the same Sample period (1999-2007). The US data will serve only as a benchmark for comparative purposes. We use two competing econometric methods, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) by (Hansen, 1982) and the Iterative Nonlinear Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation (ITNLSUR) by Burmeister and McElroy (1988). Both methods nest other options based on the procedure by Fama-MacBeth (1973). The estimations show that the FF model fits the Brazilian data better than CAPM, however it is imprecise compared with the US analog. We argue that this is a consequence of an absence of clear-cut anomalies in Brazilian data, specially those related to firm size. The tests on the efficiency of the models - nullity of intercepts and fitting of the cross-sectional regressions - presented mixed conclusions. The tests on intercept failed to rejected the CAPM when Brazilian value-premium-wise portfolios were used, contrasting with US data, a very well documented conclusion. The ITNLSUR has estimated an economically reasonable and statistically significant market risk premium for Brazil around 6.5% per year without resorting to any particular data set aggregation. However, we could not find the same for the US data during identical period or even using a larger data set. Este estudo procura contribuir com a literatura empírica brasileira de modelos de apreçamento de ativos. Dois dos principais modelos de apreçamento são Infrontados, os modelos Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)e de 3 fatores de Fama-French. São aplicadas ferramentas econométricas pouco exploradas na literatura nacional na estimação de equações de apreçamento: os métodos de GMM e ITNLSUR. Comparam-se as estimativas com as obtidas de dados americanos para o mesmo período e conclui-se que no Brasil o sucesso do modelo de Fama e French é limitado. Como subproduto da análise, (i) testa-se a presença das chamadas anomalias nos retornos, e (ii) calcula-se o prêmio de risco implícito nos retornos das ações. Os dados revelam a presença de um prêmio de valor, porém não de um prêmio de tamanho. Utilizando o método de ITNLSUR, o prêmio de risco de mercado é positivo e significativo, ao redor de 6,5% ao ano.