Arterial blood pressure targets in septic shock: is it time to move to an individualized approach?

Xu and colleagues evaluated the impact of increasing mean arterial blood pressure levels through norepinephrine administration on systemic hemodynamics, tissue perfusion, and sublingual microcirculation of septic shock patients with chronic hypertension. The authors concluded that, although increasing arterial blood pressure improved sublingual microcirculation parameters, no concomitant improvement in systemic tissue perfusion indicators was found. Here, we discuss why resuscitation targets may need to be individualized, taking into account the patient's baseline condition, and present directions for future research in this field.

Factors influencing time to HIV disease progression in Romanian children

The purpose of this research was two-fold; to investigate the effect of institutionalization on death and CD4 decline in a cohort of 325 HIV-infected Romanian children, and to investigate the effect of disclosure of the child's own HIV status in this cohort. All children were treated with Kaletra-based highly active antiretroviral therapy, and were followed from November, 2001 through October, 2004. The mean age of the children included in the cohort is 13. The study found that children in biological families were more likely to experience disease progression through either death or CD4 decline than children in institutions (p=0.04). The family home-style institution may prove to be a replicable model for the safe and appropriate care of HIV-infected orphaned and abandoned children and teens. The study also found that children who do not know their own HIV infection status were more likely to experience disease progression through either death or CD4 decline than children who know their HIV diagnosis (p=0.03). This evidence suggests that, in the context of highly active anti retroviral therapy, knowledge of one's own HIV infection status is associated with delayed HIV disease progression. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

On the time to reach a critical number of infections in epidemic models with infective and susceptible immigrants.

In this paper we examine the time T to reach a critical number K0 of infections during an outbreak in an epidemic model with infective and susceptible immigrants. The underlying process X, which was first introduced by Ridler-Rowe (1967), is related to recurrent diseases and it appears to be analytically intractable. We present an approximating model inspired from the use of extreme values, and we derive formulae for the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of T and its moments, which are evaluated by using an iterative procedure. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effects of the contact and removal rates on the expected values of T and the threshold K0, when the initial time instant corresponds to an invasion time. We also study the exact reproduction number Rexact,0 and the population transmission number Rp, which are random versions of the basic reproduction number R0.

The Boston Marathon and the Visa Negotiations between the EU and Russia: Time to get real and positive. CEPS Commentary, 8 May 2013

Against the background of the Boston Marathon bombing as a violent reminder of the lawlessness throughout much of the Northern Caucasus, Michael Emerson calls in this commentary for a fresh direction in the EU’s negotiations with Russia over visa-free travel. While finding that a ‘visa liberalisation’ regime has a very slim prospect of materialising any time soon, on the other hand, he sees realistic possibilities for fast delivery of a ‘virtual visa free regime’ of the multi-year, multi-entry visa, which would be a real and important achievement for EU-Russian relations.

Time to move north? CEPS Commentary, 27 May 2013

A staggering one out of every four young people is presently unemployed in Spain. And comparable numbers in Greece, Portugal and Italy are hardly more encouraging. Germany, on the other hand, enjoys a historically low youth unemployment rate of 8% and is experiencing skill shortages in some occupations. Against this background, this Commentary calls upon the European Commission to use its considerable strength and know-how in bringing partners and stakeholders together in order to facilitate the necessary infrastructure to allow better matching across borders of workers and employers. The authors point to the June European Council meeting as offering a good occasion to launch initiatives to this effect.