Critical-point yield model to estimate yield damage caused by Cercospora zea-maydis in corn

A model to estimate damage caused by gray leaf spot of corn (Cercospora zea-maydis) was developed from experimental field data gathered during the summer seasons of 2000/01 and during the second crop season [January-seedtime] of 2001, in the southwest of Goiás state. Three corn hybrids were grown over two seasons and on two sites, resulting in 12 experimental plots. A disease intensity gradient (lesions per leaf) was generated through application, three times over the season, of five different doses of the fungicide propiconazol. From tasseling onward, disease intensity on the ear leaf (El), and El - 1, El - 2, El + 1, and El + 2, was evaluated weekly. A manual harvest at the physiological ripening stage was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Finally, grain yield in kg.ha-1 was estimated. Regression analysis, performed between grain yield and all combinations of the number of lesions on each leaf type, generated thirty linear equations representing the damage function. To estimate losses caused by different disease intensities at different corn growth stages, these models should first be validated. Damage coefficients may be used in determining the economic damage threshold.

Critical-point model to estimate yield loss caused by Asian soybean rust

ABSTRACTA model to estimate yield loss caused by Asian soybean rust (ASR) (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) was developed by collecting data from field experiments during the growing seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11, in Passo Fundo, RS. The disease intensity gradient, evaluated in the phenological stages R5.3, R5.4 and R5.5 based on leaflet incidence (LI) and number of uredinium and lesions/cm2, was generated by applying azoxystrobin 60 g a.i/ha + cyproconazole 24 g a.i/ha + 0.5% of the adjuvant Nimbus. The first application occurred when LI = 25% and the remaining ones at 10, 15, 20 and 25-day intervals. Harvest occurred at physiological maturity and was followed by grain drying and cleaning. Regression analysis between the grain yield and the disease intensity assessment criteria generated 56 linear equations of the yield loss function. The greatest loss was observed in the earliest growth stage, and yield loss coefficients ranged from 3.41 to 9.02 kg/ha for each 1% LI for leaflet incidence, from 13.34 to 127.4 kg/ha/1 lesion/cm2 for lesion density and from 5.53 to 110.0 kg/ha/1 uredinium/cm2 for uredinium density.

Multispecies weed competition and their economic threshold on the wheat crop

Two field experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of multispecies weed competition on wheat grain yield and to determine their economic threshold on the crop. The experiments were conducted in 2002, on two sites in Iran: at the Agricultural Research Station on Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (E1) and on the fields of Shirvan's Agricultural College (E2). A 15 x 50 m area of a 15 ha wheat field in E1 and a 15 x 50 m area of a 28 ha wheat field in E2 were selected as experimental sites. These areas were managed like other parts of the fields, except for the use of herbicides. At the beginning of the shooting stage, 30 points were randomly selected by dropping a 50 x 50 cm square marker on each site. The weeds present in E1 were: Avena ludoviciana, Chenopodium album, Solanum nigrum, Stellaria holostea, Convolvulus spp., Fumaria spp., Sonchus spp., and Polygonum aviculare. In E2 the weeds were A. ludoviciana, Erysimum sp., P. aviculare, Rapistrum rugosum, C. album, Salsola kali, and Sonchus sp. The data obtained within the sampled squares were submitted to regression equations and weeds densities were calculated in terms of TCL (Total Competitive Load). The regression analysis model indicated that only A. ludoviciana, Convolvulus spp. and C. album, in E1; and A. ludoviciana, S. kali, and R. rugosum, in E2 had a significant effect on the wheat yield reduction. Weed economic thresholds were 5.23 TCL in E1 and 6.16 TCL in E2; which were equivalent to 5 plants m-2 of A. ludoviciana or 12 plants m-2 of Convolvulus spp. or 19 plants m-2 of C. album in E1; and 6 plants m-2 A. ludoviciana, 13 plants m-2 S. kali and 27 plants m-2 R. rugosum in E2. Simulations of economic weed thresholds using several wheat grain prices and weed control costs allowed a better comparison of the experiments, suggesting that a more competitive crop at location E1 than at E2 was the cause of a lower weed competitive ability at the first location.

Anti-hyperalgesic effect of electroacupuncture in a model of post-incisional pain in rats

Electroacupuncture has been proposed to be a low cost and practical method that allows effective pain management with minimal collateral effects. In this study we have examined the effect of electroacupuncture against the hyperalgesia developed in a model of post-incisional pain in rats. A 1-cm longitudinal incision was made through the skin and fascia of the plantar region of the animal hind paw. Mechanical hyperalgesia in the incision was evaluated 135 min after the surgery with von Frey filaments. The tension threshold was reduced from 75 g (upper limit of the test) to 1.36 ± 0.36 g (mean ± SEM) in control rats. It is shown that a 15-min period of electroacupuncture applied 120 min after surgery to the Zusanli (ST36) and Sanyinjiao (SP6) points, but not to non-acupoints, produces a significant and long-lasting reduction of the mechanical hyperalgesia induced by the surgical incision of the plantar surface of the ipsilateral hind paw. The tension threshold was reduced from 75 to 27.6 ± 4.2 g in animals soon after the end of electroacupuncture. The mechanical threshold in this group was about 64% less than in control. Electroacupuncture was ineffective in rats treated 10 min earlier with naloxone (1 mg/kg, ip), thus confirming the involvement of opioid mechanisms in the antinociceptive effects of such procedure. The results indicate that post-incisional pain is a useful model for studying the anti-hyperalgesic properties of electroacupuncture in laboratory animals.

Identification of anaerobic threshold using heart rate response during dynamic exercise

The objective of the present study was to characterize the heart rate (HR) patterns of healthy males using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model over a power range assumed to correspond to the anaerobic threshold (AT) during discontinuous dynamic exercise tests (DDET). Nine young (22.3 ± 1.57 years) and 9 middle-aged (MA) volunteers (43.2 ± 3.53 years) performed three DDET on a cycle ergometer. Protocol I: DDET in steps with progressive power increases of 10 W; protocol II: DDET using the same power values as protocol 1, but applied randomly; protocol III: continuous dynamic exercise protocol with ventilatory and metabolic measurements (10 W/min ramp power), for the measurement of ventilatory AT. HR was recorded and stored beat-to-beat during DDET, and analyzed using the ARIMA (protocols I and II). The DDET experiments showed that the median physical exercise workloads at which AT occurred were similar for protocols I and II, i.e., AT occurred between 75 W (116 bpm) and 85 W (116 bpm) for the young group and between 60 W (96 bpm) and 75 W (107 bpm) for group MA in protocols I and II, respectively; in two MA volunteers the ventilatory AT occurred at 90 W (108 bpm) and 95 W (111 bpm). This corresponded to the same power values of the positive trend in HR responses. The change in HR response using ARIMA models at submaximal dynamic exercise powers proved to be a promising approach for detecting AT in normal volunteers.

Comparison of anaerobic threshold determined by visual and mathematical methods in healthy women

Several methods are used to estimate anaerobic threshold (AT) during exercise. The aim of the present study was to compare AT obtained by a graphic visual method for the estimate of ventilatory and metabolic variables (gold standard), to a bi-segmental linear regression mathematical model of Hinkley's algorithm applied to heart rate (HR) and carbon dioxide output (VCO2) data. Thirteen young (24 ± 2.63 years old) and 16 postmenopausal (57 ± 4.79 years old) healthy and sedentary women were submitted to a continuous ergospirometric incremental test on an electromagnetic braking cycloergometer with 10 to 20 W/min increases until physical exhaustion. The ventilatory variables were recorded breath-to-breath and HR was obtained beat-to-beat over real time. Data were analyzed by the nonparametric Friedman test and Spearman correlation test with the level of significance set at 5%. Power output (W), HR (bpm), oxygen uptake (VO2; mL kg-1 min-1), VO2 (mL/min), VCO2 (mL/min), and minute ventilation (VE; L/min) data observed at the AT level were similar for both methods and groups studied (P > 0.05). The VO2 (mL kg-1 min-1) data showed significant correlation (P < 0.05) between the gold standard method and the mathematical model when applied to HR (r s = 0.75) and VCO2 (r s = 0.78) data for the subjects as a whole (N = 29). The proposed mathematical method for the detection of changes in response patterns of VCO2 and HR was adequate and promising for AT detection in young and middle-aged women, representing a semi-automatic, non-invasive and objective AT measurement.

An improved experimental model for peripheral neuropathy in rats

A modification of the Bennett and Xie chronic constriction injury model of peripheral painful neuropathy was developed in rats. Under tribromoethanol anesthesia, a single ligature with 100% cotton glace thread was placed around the right sciatic nerve proximal to its trifurcation. The change in the hind paw reflex threshold after mechanical stimulation observed with this modified model was compared to the change in threshold observed in rats subjected to the Bennett and Xie or the Kim and Chung spinal ligation models. The mechanical threshold was measured with an automated electronic von Frey apparatus 0, 2, 7, and 14 days after surgery, and this threshold was compared to that measured in sham rats. All injury models produced significant hyperalgesia in the operated hind limb. The modified model produced mean ± SD thresholds in g (19.98 ± 3.08, 14.98 ± 1.86, and 13.80 ± 1.00 at 2, 7, and 14 days after surgery, respectively) similar to those obtained with the spinal ligation model (20.03 ± 1.99, 13.46 ± 2.55, and 12.46 ± 2.38 at 2, 7, and 14 days after surgery, respectively), but less variable when compared to the Bennett and Xie model (21.20 ± 8.06, 18.61 ± 7.69, and 18.76 ± 6.46 at 2, 7, and 14 days after surgery, respectively). The modified method required less surgical skill than the spinal nerve ligation model.

Effective t-J model Hamiltonian parameters of monolayered cuprate superconductors from ab initio electronic structure calculations

The magnetic coupling constant of selected cuprate superconductor parent compounds has been determined by means of embedded cluster model and periodic calculations carried out at the same level of theory. The agreement between both approaches validates the cluster model. This model is subsequently employed in state-of-the-art configuration interaction calculations aimed to obtain accurate values of the magnetic coupling constant and hopping integral for a series of superconducting cuprates. Likewise, a systematic study of the performance of different ab initio explicitly correlated wave function methods and of several density functional approaches is presented. The accurate determination of the parameters of the t-J Hamiltonian has several consequences. First, it suggests that the appearance of high-Tc superconductivity in existing monolayered cuprates occurs with J/t in the 0.20¿0.35 regime. Second, J/t=0.20 is predicted to be the threshold for the existence of superconductivity and, third, a simple and accurate relationship between the critical temperatures at optimum doping and these parameters is found. However, this quantitative electronic structure versus Tc relationship is only found when both J and t are obtained at the most accurate level of theory.

A Copy detection Method for Malayalam Text Documents using N-grams Model

In this paper a method of copy detection in short Malayalam text passages is proposed. Given two passages one as the source text and another as the copied text it is determined whether the second passage is plagiarized version of the source text. An algorithm for plagiarism detection using the n-gram model for word retrieval is developed and found tri-grams as the best model for comparing the Malayalam text. Based on the probability and the resemblance measures calculated from the n-gram comparison , the text is categorized on a threshold. Texts are compared by variable length n-gram(n={2,3,4}) comparisons. The experiments show that trigram model gives the average acceptable performance with affordable cost in terms of complexity

Model Calculations and Implementation of Filters and Hybrid Green VCSELs based on Optical Thin Film Stacks

This work introduced the novel conception of complex coupled hybrid VCSELs for the first time. Alternating organic and inorganic layers in the lasers provide periodic variation of refractive index and optical gain, which enable single mode operation and low threshold of the VCSELs. Model calculations revealed great reduction of the lasing threshold with factors over 30, in comparison with the existing micro-cavity lasers. Tunable green VCSEL has been also designed, implemented and analyzed taking advantage of the broad photoluminescence spectra of the organics. Free standing optical thin films without compressive stress are technologically implemented. Multiple membrane stacks with air gap in between have been fabricated for the implementation of complex coupled VCSEL structures. Complex coupled hybrid VCSEL is a very promising approach to fill the gaps in the green spectral range of the semiconductor lasers.

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.