Analisi di serie temporali riguardanti dati energetici mediante architetture neurali profonde

Il presente lavoro di tesi riguarda lo studio e l'impiego di architetture neurali profonde (nello specifico stacked denoising auto-encoder) per la definizione di un modello previsionale di serie temporali. Il modello implementato è stato applicato a dati industriali riguardanti un impianto fotovoltaico reale, per effettuare una predizione della produzione di energia elettrica sulla base della serie temporale che lo caratterizza. I risultati ottenuti hanno evidenziato come la struttura neurale profonda contribuisca a migliorare le prestazioni di previsione di strumenti statistici classici come la regressione lineare multipla.

In vivo performance of a laser fluorescence device for the approximal detection of caries in permanent molars

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this randomised clinical trial was to investigate if a laser fluorescence device is able to discriminate between sound and carious approximal sites and between enamel and dentinal lesions, as well as to find appropriate cut-off values. METHODS: One hundred and seventeen sound or uncavitated carious sites in permanent molars were visually and radiographically examined, then either opened or not, after which their laser fluorescence was measured. Forty-three lesions were opened, the caries removed and the clinically identified caries depths were registered in addition to the radiographical scoring. Seventy-four sites were radiographically deemed sound or had enamel caries and were not opened. Here, the radiographical scorings were registered. RESULTS: Taking the radiographic scoring as gold standard for all investigated approximal sites, sound sites (D(0), n=40) showed significantly lower laser fluorescence measurements than carious sites (D(1-4), n=77) (Mann-Whitney test, P<0.025) suggesting a cut-off at 7 (sensitivity=0.68, specificity=0.7). Comparing measurements of D(0-2) (n=74) and D(3,4) (n=43), the results were also different by a statistically significant amount (P<0.025) and the cut-off calculated to be 16 (sensitivity=0.6, specificity=0.84). A fair positive correlation between laser fluorescence values and radiographical scoring was found (rho=+0.47, P<0.01). Analysing the 43 opened lesions with their clinically found lesion depths as gold standard, there was a fair positive correlation to the laser fluorescence values (rho=+0.34, P=0.03) and a moderately strong correlation to the radiographic scoring (rho=+0.67, P<0.01). CONCLUSION: The device may be an adjunct tool in the approximal detection of caries along with established procedures.

GENE SET ENRICHMENT ANALYSIS MADE SIMPLE

Among the many applications of microarray technology, one of the most popular is the identification of genes that are differentially expressed in two conditions. A common statistical approach is to quantify the interest of each gene with a p-value, adjust these p-values for multiple comparisons, chose an appropriate cut-off, and create a list of candidate genes. This approach has been criticized for ignoring biological knowledge regarding how genes work together. Recently a series of methods, that do incorporate biological knowledge, have been proposed. However, many of these methods seem overly complicated. Furthermore, the most popular method, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), is based on a statistical test known for its lack of sensitivity. In this paper we compare the performance of a simple alternative to GSEA.We find that this simple solution clearly outperforms GSEA.We demonstrate this with eight different microarray datasets.

Correlation between serum total globulins and gamma globulins and their use to diagnose failure of passive transfer in foals.

Various assays have been used as an aid to diagnose failure of passive transfer (FPT) of immunoglobulins in neonatal foals, but often lack sensitivity as screening tests, or are time consuming to perform and impractical as confirmatory tests. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether measurement of serum total globulins (TG; i.e. total protein minus albumin) can be used to estimate the electrophoretic gamma globulin (EGG) fraction in hospitalised neonatal foals with suspected FPT. Sample data from 56 foals were evaluated retrospectively. The coefficient of rank correlation was 0.84. The area under the curve of ROC analysis was 0.887, 0.922 and 0.930 for EGG concentrations <2 g/L, < 4 g/L and <8 g/L, respectively. Cut-offs for TG achieved ≥90% sensitivity for detecting EGG <2 g/L, < 4 g/L and <8 g/L, with negative predictive values of >97% and >94%, using prevalence of 15% and 30%, respectively. These results suggest that measurement of TG can be used as a guide to predicting EGG, provided that appropriate cut-off values are selected, and this technique could be a useful initial screening test for FPT in foals.

Field analysis of solar PV-based collective systems for rural electrification.

This article analyses the long-term performance of collective off-grid photovoltaic (PV) systems in rural areas. The use of collective PV systems for the electrification of small medium-size villages in developing countries has increased in the recent years. They are basically set up as stand-alone installations (diesel hybrid or pure PV) with no connection with other electrical grids. Their particular conditions (isolated) and usual installation places (far from commercial/industrial centers) require an autonomous and reliable technology. Different but related factors affect their performance and the energy supply; some of them are strictly technical but others depend on external issues like the solar energy resource and users’ energy and power consumption. The work presented is based on field operation of twelve collective PV installations supplying the electricity to off-grid villages located in the province of Jujuy, Argentina. Five of them have PV generators as unique power source while other seven include the support of diesel groups. Load demand evolution, energy productivity and fuel consumption are analyzed. Besides, energy generation strategies (PV/diesel) are also discussed.

CPV hybrid system in ISFOC building, first results

PV Off-Grid systems have demonstrated to be a good solution for the electrification of remote areas [1]. A hybrid system is one kind of these systems. The principal characteristic is that it uses PV as the main generator and has a backup power supply, like a diesel generator, for instance, that is used when the CPV generation is not enough to meet demand. To study the use of CPV in these systems, ISFOC has installed a demonstration hybrid system at its headquarters. This hybrid system uses CPV technology as main generator and the utility grid as the backup generator. A group of batteries have been mounted as well to store the remaining energy from the CPV generator when nedeed. The energy flows are managed by a SMA system based on Sunny Island inverters and a Multicluster-Box (figure 1). The Load is the air-conditioning system of the building, as it has a consumption profile higher than the CPV generator and can be controlled by software [2]. The first results of this system, as well as the first chances of improvement, as the need of a bigger CPV generator and a better management of the energy stored in the batteries, are presented in this paper.

Night time performance of a storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) system

Energy storage at low maintenance cost is one of the key challenges for generating electricity from the solar energy. This paper presents the theoretical analysis (verified by CFD) of the night time performance of a recently proposed conceptual system that integrates thermal storage (via phase change materials) and thermophotovoltaics for power generation. These storage integrated solar thermophotovoltaic (SISTPV) systems are attractive owing to their simple design (no moving parts) and modularity compared to conventional Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Importantly, the ability of high temperature operation of these systems allows the use of silicon (melting point of 1680 K) as the phase change material (PCM). Silicon's very high latent heat of fusion of 1800 kJ/kg and low cost ($1.70/kg), makes it an ideal heat storage medium enabling for an extremely high storage energy density and low weight modular systems. In this paper, the night time operation of the SISTPV system optimised for steady state is analysed. The results indicate that for any given PCM length, a combination of small taper ratio and large inlet hole-to-absorber area ratio are essential to increase the operation time and the average power produced during the night time. Additionally, the overall results show that there is a trade-off between running time and the average power produced during the night time. Average night time power densities as high as 30 W/cm(2) are possible if the system is designed with a small PCM length (10 cm) to operate just a few hours after sun-set, but running times longer than 72 h (3 days) are possible for larger lengths (50 cm) at the expense of a lower average power density of about 14 W/cm(2). In both cases the steady state system efficiency has been predicted to be about 30%. This makes SISTPV systems to be a versatile solution that can be adapted for operation in a broad range of locations with different climate conditions, even being used off-grid and in space applications.

Interventi di efficientamento energetico nell’industria ceramica

Questa tesi di laurea si occupa di valutare degli interventi di miglioramento dell’efficienza energetica per un’industria ceramica. In coerenza con gli impegni assunti nel pacchetto Clima Energia, il Decreto legislativo n° 102 del 4 luglio 2014, stabilisce l’obiettivo nazionale di risparmio energetico che consiste nella riduzione, entro il 2020, di 20 milioni di tonnellate equivalenti di petrolio dei consumi di energia primaria, conteggiati a partire dal 2010. Inoltre tale decreto stabilisce un regime obbligatorio di efficienza energetica costituito dal meccanismo dei certificati bianchi, il quale dovrebbe contribuire al raggiungimento del 60% dell’obiettivo. Sulla base di queste direttive è stato effettuato presso uno stabilimento ceramico uno studio di fattibilità che si articola nelle seguenti fasi: 1.Analisi energetica del sistema attuale finalizzata all’identificazione delle richieste energetiche in termini di produzione e consumi. 2.Analisi impiantistica finalizzata alla scelta delle macchine e delle soluzioni tecniche di dettaglio. 3.Analisi economica finalizzata alla valutazione del costo di generazione di energia elettrica e termica relativamente ai sistemi oggetto di studio. 4.Valutazione della sostenibilità dell’investimento per ogni opzione considerata, mediante l’applicazione del metodo economico del valore attuale netto (VAN), per ottimizzare il tempo di rientro dall’investimento. Le tipologie di intervento proposte sono: 1)Recupero dell’aria di raffreddamento del forno, che scaldandosi a contatto con la piastrella, ha un contenuto entalpico elevato e quindi può essere utilizzata nel reparto di essiccazione. 2)Sostituzione dei bruciatori esistenti ed obsoleti del forno di cottura bicanale con 192 nuovi kit di bruciatori "autorecuperativi". 3)Implementazione di un impianto di cogenerazione costituito da un motore a combustione interna, recuperando i gas esausti e parte dell’acqua del circuito di raffreddamento ad alta temperatura.

Spettroscopia dielettrica per la caratterizzazione di fluidi isolanti

Sono stati introdotti i principali fluidi isolanti utilizzati in elettrotecnica, differenziandoli per strutture molecolari e proprietà dielettriche e spettroscopiche caratteristiche. Sono stati analizzati i diversi meccanismi di polarizzazione elettrica, polarizzabilità delle molecole e modelli di campo in un dipolo molecolare proposti da alcuni ricercatori ed analizzate le perdite dielettriche che compaiono negli oli isolanti elettrici principali, suddividendole per perdite dipolari, da cui il confronto fra diversi modelli teorici, e perdite dovute alla conduzione ionica di portatori di carica mobili.

Analisi di sistemi di produzione dell'idrogeno mediante elettrolisi

Questo elaborato di tesi si occupa dell’analisi di sistemi di produzione dell’idrogeno mediante elettrolisi, con un particolare approfondimento sugli elettrolizzatori di tipo PEM. L’elaborato si concentra sullo studio delle fonti rinnovabili non programmabili per la produzione di energia elettrica, con il relativo utilizzo di sistemi di accumulo. Dopo un accurato studio sui vari sistemi di accumulo esistenti viene elaborato un modello al fine di poter effettuare un analisi di tipo black box su varie tipologie di elettrolizzatori PEM presenti sul mercato.

Modellazione del ciclo termico di un impianto di termovalorizzazione dei rifiuti

Breve analisi sulla gestione dei rifiuti e simulazione del ciclo termico del termovalorizzatore del Frullo (gruppo Hera, Bologna), con modellazione di due possibili variazioni operative (dettate dal gestore dell'impianto), per valutare la loro fattibilità in termini di miglioramento dell'efficienza elettrica e termica. Conferma dei risultati ottenuti mediante un'analisi economica basata sulla vendita stagionale dell'energia elettrica e termica.

Solar thermal collectors for use in hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

This thesis examined solar thermal collectors for use in alternative hybrid solar-biomass power plant applications in Gujarat, India. Following a preliminary review, the cost-effective selection and design of the solar thermal field were identified as critical factors underlying the success of hybrid plants. Consequently, the existing solar thermal technologies were reviewed and ranked for use in India by means of a multi-criteria decision-making method, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Informed by the outcome of the AHP, the thesis went on to pursue the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR), the design of which was optimised with the help of ray-tracing. To further enhance collector performance, LFR concepts incorporating novel mirror spacing and drive mechanisms were evaluated. Subsequently, a new variant, termed the Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector (ELFR) was designed, constructed and tested at Aston University, UK, therefore allowing theoretical models for the performance of a solar thermal field to be verified. Based on the resulting characteristics of the LFR, and data gathered for the other hybrid system components, models of hybrid LFR- and ELFR-biomass power plants were developed and analysed in TRNSYS®. The techno-economic and environmental consequences of varying the size of the solar field in relation to the total plant capacity were modelled for a series of case studies to evaluate different applications: tri-generation (electricity, ice and heat), electricity-only generation, and process heat. The case studies also encompassed varying site locations, capacities, operational conditions and financial situations. In the case of a hybrid tri-generation plant in Gujarat, it was recommended to use an LFR solar thermal field of 14,000 m2 aperture with a 3 tonne biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR increased saving of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). For solar thermal applications in areas with high land cost, the ELFR reduced levelised energy costs. It was determined that off-grid hybrid plants for tri-generation were the most feasible application in India. Whereas biomass-only plants were found to be more economically viable, it was concluded that hybrid systems will soon become cost competitive and can considerably improve current energy security and biomass supply chain issues in India.

Breakdown nei gas a bassa pressione

Studio della crescita della scarica elettrica nei gas a bassa pressione con trattazioni teoriche, risultati sperimentali e rimandi ai principali studi sull'argomento. Indice: 1 Introduzione 2 Breakdown nei Gas a Bassa Pressione 2.1 Criterio di Townsend e Legge di Paschen 2.2 Tensione di Breakdown in Campi Uniformi 2.3 Scostamenti dalla Legge di Paschen 2.4 Breakdown in Campi Non Uniformi 2.5 Time Lags per il Breakdown 2.6 Breakdown nel Vuoto 2.7 Scariche Intermittenti post-Breakdown 3 Breakdown nei Contatori Geiger 3.1 Contatori Geiger 3.2 Conteggio Proporzionale 3.3 Conteggio Non-Proporzionale 3.4 Propagazione della Scarica A Sviluppi Successivi

Sistemi di protezione per i guasti verso terra

Con questa tesi di laurea si vogliono analizzare le possibili cause e motivazioni e le molteplici soluzioni di fenomeni presenti sia in ambito domestico sia in ambito industriale e riguardanti i sistemi di protezione per i guasti verso terra. Le problematiche analizzate, come si vedrà, sono sempre più tematiche di attualità e questo a causa del sempre maggiore utilizzo di elettronica di potenza, convertitori, inverter, computer e controlli elettronici in generale. Se da un lato questi carichi sono sempre più sensibili ad interruzioni o anomalie nella tensione ai loro capi, d’altro canto spesso essi stessi sono tra i colpevoli delle anomalie stesse. In un primo momento si vedrà un fenomeno molto comune e conosciuto che è lo scatto intempestivo del differenziale che può causare danni di una certa entità. In una seconda parte saranno poi analizzate altre problematicità legate all’interruttore differenziale ed ai sistemi di terra, in particolare per quanto riguarda il loro funzionamento nel caso di correnti di guasto non perfettamente sinusoidali o totalmente non sinusoidali. La non sinusoidalità, originata prevalentemente dai carichi non lineari, oltre a dare le problematiche ben conosciute sia a livello di rete sia a livello dei carichi collegati (aumenti delle perdite, malfunzionamenti, sovraccarico del conduttore di neutro) dà distorsione della corrente (in questo caso di quella di guasto a terra) modificando sia il comportamento del differenziale in caso di guasto (ad esempio mancato intervento dell’interruttore con i conseguenti pericoli per l’essere umano) sia le curve di sicurezza. Per procedere ad un’analisi più dettagliata delle non idealità nel funzionamento nell’interruttore automatico differenziale (sia per quanto riguarda lo scatto intempestivo sia per quanto riguarda altre problematiche) è necessario conoscerne in maniera adeguata sia la struttura sia il principio di funzionamento ed anche le diverse tipologie esistenti sul mercato.

The Politico-Economics of Electricity Planning in Developing Countries : A Case Study of Ghana

The first author would like to thank the University of Aberdeen and the Henderson Economics Research Fund for funding his PhD studies in the period 2011-2014 which formed the basis for the research presented in this paper.