Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

One-dimensional Fermi accelerator model with moving wall described by a nonlinear van der Pol oscillator

A modification of the one-dimensional Fermi accelerator model is considered in this work. The dynamics of a classical particle of mass m, confined to bounce elastically between two rigid walls where one is described by a nonlinear van der Pol type oscillator while the other one is fixed, working as a reinjection mechanism of the particle for a next collision, is carefully made by the use of a two-dimensional nonlinear mapping. Two cases are considered: (i) the situation where the particle has mass negligible as compared to the mass of the moving wall and does not affect the motion of it; and (ii) the case where collisions of the particle do affect the movement of the moving wall. For case (i) the phase space is of mixed type leading us to observe a scaling of the average velocity as a function of the parameter (χ) controlling the nonlinearity of the moving wall. For large χ, a diffusion on the velocity is observed leading to the conclusion that Fermi acceleration is taking place. On the other hand, for case (ii), the motion of the moving wall is affected by collisions with the particle. However, due to the properties of the van der Pol oscillator, the moving wall relaxes again to a limit cycle. Such kind of motion absorbs part of the energy of the particle leading to a suppression of the unlimited energy gain as observed in case (i). The phase space shows a set of attractors of different periods whose basin of attraction has a complicated organization. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

Distal movement of upper permanent molars using midpalatal mini-implant

OBJETIVO: verificar se o mini-implante no palato é eficaz como ancoragem direta para distalização dos molares superiores. MÉTODOS: foi utilizado um modelo em acrílico da arcada superior. Após a confecção da canaleta na região correspondente aos alvéolos dentários, os dentes em acrílico foram fixados com cera #7, montado aparelho ortodôntico com a técnica Edgewise e inserido um mini-implante (SIN, São Paulo) no local correspondente à rafe palatina. Foram colocados arco 0,19" x 0,25" e barra transpalatina, soldados na barra dois ganchos para retenção de dois elásticos em cadeia de dois elos, a uma carga de 150g/f de cada lado (Unitek), que se estenderam dos ganchos até o mini-implante. O modelo da maxila foi mergulhado 40 vezes em banheira e fotografado após cada mergulho para observação da movimentação dentária. Os dados foram analisados pela análise da variânçia (ANOVA) e teste de Tukey. RESULTADOS: os molares deslocaram-se distalmente 3,1mm, em média, com inclinação distal entre 3 e 5mm. CONCLUÕES: a movimentação dos molares ocorreu pela inclinação distal, com leve rotação, mas sem efeito extrusivo.

Effect of alendronate sodium on tooth movement in ovariectomized rats

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Celecoxib treatment does not alter recruitment and activation of osteoclasts in the initial phase of experimental tooth movement

In a previous study, we reported that the short-term treatment with celecoxib, a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) attenuates the activation of brain structures related to nociception and does not interfere with orthodontic incisor separation in rats. The conclusion was that celecoxib could possibly be prescribed for pain in orthodontic patients. However, we did not analyze the effects of this drug in periodontium. The aim of this follow-up study was to analyze effects of celecoxib treatment on recruitment and activation of osteoclasts and alveolar bone resorption after inserting an activated orthodontic appliance between the incisors in our rat model. Twenty rats (400420 g) were pretreated through oral gavage with celecoxib (50 mg/kg) or vehicle (carboxymethylcellulose 0.4%). After 30 min, they received an activated (30 g) orthodontic appliance, set not to cause any palate disjunction. In sham animals, the appliance was immediately removed after introduction. All animals received ground food and, every 12 h, celecoxib or vehicle. After 48 h, they were anesthetized and transcardiacally perfused through the aorta with 4% formaldehyde. Subsequently, maxillae were removed, post-fixed and processed for histomorphometry or immunohistochemical analyses. As expected, incisor distalization induced an inflammatory response with certain histological changes, including an increase in the number of active osteoclasts at the compression side in group treated with vehicle (appliance: 32.2 +/- 2.49 vs sham: 4.8 +/- 1.79, P<0.05) and celecoxib (appliance: 31.0 +/- 1.45 vs sham: 4.6 +/- 1.82, P<0.05). The treatment with celecoxib did not modify substantially the histological alterations and the number of active osteoclasts after activation of orthodontic appliance. Moreover, we did not see any difference between the groups with respect to percentage of bone resorption area. Taken together with our previous results we conclude that short-term treatment with celecoxib can indeed be a therapeutic alternative for pain relieve during orthodontic procedures.

Resistance to Flexural Fatigue of Reciproc R25 Files under Continuous Rotation and Reciprocating Movement

Introduction: The aim of the present work was to evaluate the resistance to flexural fatigue of Reciproc R25 nickel-titanium files, 25 mm, used in continuous rotation motion or reciprocation motion, in dynamic assays device. Methods: Thirty-six Reciproc R25 files were divided into 2 groups (n = 18) according to kinematics applied, continuous rotary (group CR) and reciprocation motion (group RM). The files were submitted to dynamic assays device moved by an electric engine with 300 rpm of speed that permitted the reproduction of pecking motion. The files run on a ring's groove of temperate steel, simulating instrumentation of a curved root canal with 400 and 5 mm of curvature radius. The fracture of file was detected by sensor of device, and the time was marked. The data were analyzed statistically by Student's t test, with level of significance of 95%. Results: The instruments moved by reciprocating movement reached significantly higher numbers of cycles before fracture (mean, 1787.78 cycles) when compared with instruments moved by continuous rotary (mean, 816.39 cycles). Conclusions: The results showed that the reciprocation motion improves flexural fatigue resistance in nickel-titanium instrument Reciproc R25 when compared with continuous rotation movement. (J Endod 2012;38:684-687)

Geometrical and kinematic properties of interfacial waves in stratified oil-water flow in inclined pipe

The stratified oil-water flow pattern is common in the petroleum industry, especially in offshore directional wells and pipelines. Previous studies have shown that the phenomenon of flow pattern transition in stratified flow can be related to the interfacial wave structure (problem of hydrodynamic instability). The study of the wavy stratified flow pattern requires the characterization of the interfacial wave properties, i.e., average shape, celerity and geometric properties (amplitude and wavelength) as a function of holdup, inclination angle and phases' relative velocity. However, the data available in the literature on wavy stratified flow is scanty, especially in inclined pipes and when oil is viscous. This paper presents new geometric and kinematic interfacial wave properties as a function of a proposed two-phase Froude number in the wavy-stratified liquid-liquid flow. The experimental work was conducted in a glass test line of 12 m and 0.026 m id., oil (density and viscosity of 828 kg/m(3) and 0.3 Pa s at 20 degrees C, respectively) and water as the working fluids at several inclinations from horizontal (-20 degrees, -10 degrees, 0 degrees, 10 degrees, 20 degrees). The results suggest a physical relation between wave shape and the hydrodynamic stability of the stratified liquid-liquid flow pattern. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical Model for the Dynamic Analysis of Pile Foundations

Programa de doctorado: Sistemas Inteligentes y Aplicaciones Numéricas en Ingeniería Instituto Universitario (SIANI)

Central autonomic control in spontaneously hypertensive rats: a study on phasic phenomena during rapid-eye-movement sleep

The cardiovascular regulation undergoes wide changes in the different states of sleepwake cycle. In particular, the relationship between spontaneous fluctuations in heart period and arterial pressure clearly shows differences between the two sleep states. In non rapid-eye-movement sleep, heart rhythm is under prevalent baroreflex control, whereas in rapid-eye-movement sleep central autonomic commands prevail (Zoccoli et al., 2001). Moreover, during rapid-eye-movement sleep the cardiovascular variables show wide fluctuations around their mean value. In particular, during rapid-eyemovement sleep, the arterial pressure shows phasic hypertensive events which are superimposed upon the tonic level of arterial pressure. These phasic increases in arterial pressure are accompanied by an increase in heart rate (Sei & Morita, 1996; Silvani et al., 2005). Thus, rapid-eye-movement sleep may represent an “autonomic stress test” for the cardiovascular system, able to unmask pathological patterns of cardiovascular regulation (Verrier et al. 2005), but this hypothesis has never been tested experimentally. The aim of this study was to investigate whether rapid-eye-movement sleep may reveal derangements in central autonomic cardiovascular control in an experimental model of essential hypertension. The study was performed in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats, which represent the most widely used model of essential hypertension, and allow full control of genetic and environmental confounding factors. In particular, we analyzed the cardiovascular, electroencephalogram, and electromyogram changes associated with phasic hypertensive events during rapid-eyemovement sleep in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats and in their genetic Wistar Kyoto control strain. Moreover, we studied also a group of Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats made phenotypically normotensive by means of a chronic treatment with an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, the Enalapril maleate, from the age of four weeks to the end of the experiment. All rats were implanted with electrodes for electroencephalographic and electromyographic recordings and with an arterial catheter for arterial pressure measurement. After six days for postoperative recovery, the rats were studied for five days, at an age of ten weeks.The study indicated that the peak of mean arterial pressure increase during the phasic hypertensive events in rapid-eye-movement sleep did not differ significantly between Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats and Wistar Kyoto rats, while on the other hand Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats showed a reduced increase in the frequency of theta rhythm and a reduced tachicardia with respect to Wistar Kyoto rats. The same pattern of changes in mean arterial pressure, heart period, and theta frequency was observed between Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats and Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats treated with Enalapril maleate. Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats do not differ from Wistar Kyoto rats only in terms of arterial hypertension, but also due to multiple unknown genetic differences. Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats were developed by selective breeding of Wistar Kyoto rats based only on the level of arterial pressure. However, in this process, multiple genes possibly unrelated to hypertension may have been selected together with the genetic determinants of hypertension (Carley et al., 2000). This study indicated that Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats differ from Wistar Kyoto rats, but not from Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats treated with Enalapril maleate, in terms of arterial pH and theta frequency. This feature may be due to genetic determinants unrelated to hypertension. In sharp contrast, the persistence of differences in the peak of heart period decrease and the peak of theta frequency increase during phasic hypertensive events between Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats and Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats treated with Enalapril maleate demonstrates that the observed reduction in central autonomic control of the cardiovascular system in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats is not an irreversible consequence of inherited genetic determinants. Rather, the comparison between Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats and Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats treated with Enalapril maleate indicates that the observed differences in central autonomic control are the result of the hypertension per se. This work supports the view that the study of cardiovascular regulation in sleep provides fundamental insight on the pathophysiology of hypertension, and may thus contribute to the understanding of this disease, which is a major health problem in European countries (Wolf-Maier et al., 2003) with its burden of cardiac, vascular, and renal complications.

Two fluid numerical model for coastal applications

Wave breaking is an important coastal process, influencing hydro-morphodynamic processes such as turbulence generation and wave energy dissipation, run-up on the beach and overtopping of coastal defence structures. During breaking, waves are complex mixtures of air and water (“white water”) whose properties affect velocity and pressure fields in the vicinity of the free surface and, depending on the breaker characteristics, different mechanisms for air entrainment are usually observed. Several laboratory experiments have been performed to investigate the role of air bubbles in the wave breaking process (Chanson & Cummings, 1994, among others) and in wave loading on vertical wall (Oumeraci et al., 2001; Peregrine et al., 2006, among others), showing that the air phase is not negligible since the turbulent energy dissipation involves air-water mixture. The recent advancement of numerical models has given valuable insights in the knowledge of wave transformation and interaction with coastal structures. Among these models, some solve the RANS equations coupled with a free-surface tracking algorithm and describe velocity, pressure, turbulence and vorticity fields (Lara et al. 2006 a-b, Clementi et al., 2007). The single-phase numerical model, in which the constitutive equations are solved only for the liquid phase, neglects effects induced by air movement and trapped air bubbles in water. Numerical approximations at the free surface may induce errors in predicting breaking point and wave height and moreover, entrapped air bubbles and water splash in air are not properly represented. The aim of the present thesis is to develop a new two-phase model called COBRAS2 (stands for Cornell Breaking waves And Structures 2 phases), that is the enhancement of the single-phase code COBRAS0, originally developed at Cornell University (Lin & Liu, 1998). In the first part of the work, both fluids are considered as incompressible, while the second part will treat air compressibility modelling. The mathematical formulation and the numerical resolution of the governing equations of COBRAS2 are derived and some model-experiment comparisons are shown. In particular, validation tests are performed in order to prove model stability and accuracy. The simulation of the rising of a large air bubble in an otherwise quiescent water pool reveals the model capability to reproduce the process physics in a realistic way. Analytical solutions for stationary and internal waves are compared with corresponding numerical results, in order to test processes involving wide range of density difference. Waves induced by dam-break in different scenarios (on dry and wet beds, as well as on a ramp) are studied, focusing on the role of air as the medium in which the water wave propagates and on the numerical representation of bubble dynamics. Simulations of solitary and regular waves, characterized by both spilling and plunging breakers, are analyzed with comparisons with experimental data and other numerical model in order to investigate air influence on wave breaking mechanisms and underline model capability and accuracy. Finally, modelling of air compressibility is included in the new developed model and is validated, revealing an accurate reproduction of processes. Some preliminary tests on wave impact on vertical walls are performed: since air flow modelling allows to have a more realistic reproduction of breaking wave propagation, the dependence of wave breaker shapes and aeration characteristics on impact pressure values is studied and, on the basis of a qualitative comparison with experimental observations, the numerical simulations achieve good results.

'Defending the rights'. An integrated model of collective action for "public water" in Italy

In many communities, supplying water for the people is a huge task and the fact that this essential service can be carried out by the private sector respecting the right to water, is a debated issue. This dissertation investigates the mechanisms through which a 'perceived rights violation' - which represents a specific form of perceived injustice which derives from the violation of absolute moral principles – can promote collective action. Indeed, literature on morality and collective action suggests that even if many people apparently sustain high moral principles (like human rights), only a minority decides to act in order to defend them. Taking advantage of the political situation in Italy, and the recent mobilization for "public water" we hypothesized that, because of its "sacred value", the perceived violation of the right to water facilitates identification with the social movement and activism. Through five studies adopting qualitative and quantitative methods, we confirmed our hypotheses demonstrating that the perceived violation of the right to water can sustain activism and it can influence vote intentions at the referendum for 'public water'. This path to collective action coexists with other 'classical' predictors of collective action, like instrumental factors (personal advantages, efficacy beliefs) and anger. The perceived rights violation can derive both from personal values (i.e. universalism) and external factors (i.e. a mobilization campaign). Furthermore, we demonstrated that it is possible to enhance the perceived violation of the right to water and anger through a specifically designed communication campaign. The final chapter summarizes the main findings and discusses the results, suggesting some innovative line of research for collective action literature.

Analysis of the Slow Food movement impact on the farmers and rural areas’ sustainable development

The evaluation of the farmers’ communities’ approach to the Slow Food vision, their perception of the Slow Food role in supporting their activity and their appreciation and expectations from participating in the event of Mother Earth were studied. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model was adopted in an agro-food sector context. A survey was conducted, 120 questionnaires from farmers attending the Mother Earth in Turin in 2010 were collected. The descriptive statistical analysis showed that both Slow Food membership and participation to Mother Earth Meeting were much appreciated for the support provided to their business and the contribution to a more sustainable and fair development. A positive social, environmental and psychological impact on farmers also resulted. Results showed also an interesting perspective on the possible universality of the Slow Food and Mother Earth values. Farmers declared that Slow Food is supporting them by preserving the biodiversity and orienting them to the use of local resources and reducing the chemical inputs. Many farmers mentioned the language/culture and administration/bureaucratic issues as an obstacle to be a member in the movement and to participate to the event. Participation to Mother Earth gives an opportunity to exchange information with other farmers’ communities and to participate to seminars and debates, helpful for their business development. The absolute majority of positive answers associated to the farmers’ willingness to relate to Slow Food and participate to the next Mother Earth editions negatively influenced the UTAUT model results. A factor analysis showed that the variables associated to the UTAUT model constructs Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy were consistent, able to explain the construct variability, and their measurement reliable. Their inclusion in a simplest Technology Acceptance Model could be considered in future researches.

Palaeo wind system reconstruction of the last glacial period over Europe, using high resolution proxy data and model-data-comparison

The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

Study of a wind-wave numerical model and its integration with ocean and oil-spill numerical models

The ability to represent the transport and fate of an oil slick at the sea surface is a formidable task. By using an accurate numerical representation of oil evolution and movement in seawater, the possibility to asses and reduce the oil-spill pollution risk can be greatly improved. The blowing of the wind on the sea surface generates ocean waves, which give rise to transport of pollutants by wave-induced velocities that are known as Stokes’ Drift velocities. The Stokes’ Drift transport associated to a random gravity wave field is a function of the wave Energy Spectra that statistically fully describe it and that can be provided by a wave numerical model. Therefore, in order to perform an accurate numerical simulation of the oil motion in seawater, a coupling of the oil-spill model with a wave forecasting model is needed. In this Thesis work, the coupling of the MEDSLIK-II oil-spill numerical model with the SWAN wind-wave numerical model has been performed and tested. In order to improve the knowledge of the wind-wave model and its numerical performances, a preliminary sensitivity study to different SWAN model configuration has been carried out. The SWAN model results have been compared with the ISPRA directional buoys located at Venezia, Ancona and Monopoli and the best model settings have been detected. Then, high resolution currents provided by a relocatable model (SURF) have been used to force both the wave and the oil-spill models and its coupling with the SWAN model has been tested. The trajectories of four drifters have been simulated by using JONSWAP parametric spectra or SWAN directional-frequency energy output spectra and results have been compared with the real paths traveled by the drifters.