Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Bio-inspired Mechanisms for Artificial Self-organised Systems

Self-organization is a growing interdisciplinary field of research about a phenomenon that can be observed in the Universe, in Nature and in social contexts. Research on self-organization tries to describe and explain forms, complex patterns and behaviours that arise from a collection of entities without an external organizer. As researchers in artificial systems, our aim is not to mimic self-organizing phenomena arising in Nature, but to understand and to control underlying mechanisms allowing desired emergence of forms, complex patterns and behaviours. Rather than attempting to eliminate such self-organization in artificial systems, we think that this might be deliberately harnessed in order to reach desirable global properties. In this paper we analyze three forms of self-organization: stigmergy, reinforcement mechanisms and cooperation. The amplification phenomena founded in stigmergic process or in reinforcement process are different forms of positive feedbacks that play a major role in building group activity or social organization. Cooperation is a functional form for self-organization because of its ability to guide local behaviours in order to obtain a relevant collective one. For each forms of self-organisation, we present a case study to show how we transposed it to some artificial systems and then analyse the strengths and weaknesses of such an approach

Self-organized sociopolitical interactions as the best way to achieve organized patterns in human social systems: going beyond the top-down control of classical political regimes

La monografía presenta la auto-organización sociopolítica como la mejor manera de lograr patrones organizados en los sistemas sociales humanos, dada su naturaleza compleja y la imposibilidad de las tareas computacionales de los regímenes políticos clásico, debido a que operan con control jerárquico, el cual ha demostrado no ser óptimo en la producción de orden en los sistemas sociales humanos. En la monografía se extrapola la teoría de la auto-organización en los sistemas biológicos a las dinámicas sociopolíticas humanas, buscando maneras óptimas de organizarlas, y se afirma que redes complejas anárquicas son la estructura emergente de la auto-organización sociopolítica.

Simulated annealing technique for fast learning of SOM networks

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) is a popular unsupervised neural network able to provide effective clustering and data visualization for multidimensional input datasets. In this paper, we present an application of the simulated annealing procedure to the SOM learning algorithm with the aim to obtain a fast learning and better performances in terms of quantization error. The proposed learning algorithm is called Fast Learning Self-Organized Map, and it does not affect the easiness of the basic learning algorithm of the standard SOM. The proposed learning algorithm also improves the quality of resulting maps by providing better clustering quality and topology preservation of input multi-dimensional data. Several experiments are used to compare the proposed approach with the original algorithm and some of its modification and speed-up techniques.

Structure and dynamics of supramolecular assemblies studied by advanced solid-state NMR spectroscopy

Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Aufklärung von Struktur und Dynamik komplexer supramolekularer Systeme mittels Festkörper NMR Spektroskopie. Die Untersuchung von pi-pi Wechselwirkungen, welche einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf die strukturellen und dynamischen Eigenschaften supra- molekularer Systeme haben, hilft dabei, die Selbst- organisationsprozesse dieser komplexen Materialien besser zu verstehen. Mit dipolaren 1H-1H and 1H-13C Wiedereinkopplungs NMR Methoden unter schnellem MAS können sowohl 1H chemische Verschiebungen als auch dipolare 1H-1H und 1H-13C Kopplungen untersucht werden, ohne dass eine Isotopenmarkierung erforderlich ist. So erhält man detaillierte Informationen über die Struktur und die Beweglichkeit einzelner Molekül- segmente. In Verbindung mit sogenannten nucleus independent chemical shift (NICS) maps (berechnet mit ab-initio Methoden) lassen sich Abstände von Protonen relativ zu pi-Elektronensystemen bestimmen und so Strukturvorschläge ableiten. Mit Hilfe von homo- und heteronuklearen dipolaren Rotationsseitenbandenmustern könnenaußerdem Ordnungs- parameter für verschiedene Molekülsegmente bestimmt werden. Die auf diese Weise gewonnenen Informationen über die strukturellen und dynamischen Eigenschaften supramolekularer Systeme tragen dazu bei, strukturbestimmende Molekül- einheiten und Hauptordnungsphänomene zu identifizieren sowie lokale Wechselwirkungen zu quantifizieren, um so den Vorgang der Selbstorganisation besser zu verstehen.

Self-organized defensive behavior in honeybees

We investigated the defensive behavior of honeybees under controlled experimental conditions. During an attack on two identical targets, the spatial distribution of stings varied as a function of the total number of stings, evincing the classic “pitchfork bifurcation” phenomenon of nonlinear dynamics. The experimental results support a model of defensive behavior based on a self-organizing mechanism. The model helps to explain several of the characteristic features of the honeybee defensive response: (i) the ability of the colony to localize and focus its attack, (ii) the strong variability between different hives in the intensity of attack, as well as (iii) the variability observed within the same hive, and (iv) the ability of the colony to amplify small differences between the targets.

How amoeboids self-organize into a fruiting body: Multicellular coordination in Dictyostelium discoideum

When individual amoebae of the cellular slime mold Dictyostelium discoideum are starving, they aggregate to form a multicellular migrating slug, which moves toward a region suitable for culmination. The culmination of the morphogenesis involves complex cell movements that transform a mound of cells into a globule of spores on a slender stalk. The movement has been likened to a “reverse fountain,” whereby prestalk cells in the upper part form a stalk that moves downwards and anchors to the substratum, while prespore cells in the lower part move upwards to form the spore head. So far, however, no satisfactory explanation has been produced for this process. Using a computer simulation that we developed, we now demonstrate that the processes that are essential during the earlier stages of the morphogenesis are in fact sufficient to produce the dynamics of the culmination stage. These processes are cAMP signaling, differential adhesion, cell differentiation, and production of extracellular matrix. Our model clarifies the processes that generate the observed cell movements. More specifically, we show that periodic upward movements, caused by chemotactic motion, are essential for successful culmination, because the pressure waves they induce squeeze the stalk downwards through the cell mass. The mechanisms revealed by our model have a number of self-organizing and self-correcting properties and can account for many previously unconnected and unexplained experimental observations.

Representation of 2D objects with a topology preserving network

Comunicación presentada en el 2nd International Workshop on Pattern Recognition in Information Systems, Alicante, April, 2002.

Principles of the design of self-learning systems, USSR.

"Translation of the ... collection of reports" [entitled]: Print︠s︡ipy postroenii︠a︡ samoobuchaiushchikhsia sistem (romanized form) Kiev, 1962.

A modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems

Self-awareness and self-expression are promising architectural concepts for embedded systems to be equipped with to match them with dedicated application scenarios and constraints in the avionic and space-flight industry. Typically, these systems operate in largely undefined environments and are not reachable after deployment for a long time or even never ever again. This paper introduces a reference architecture as well as a novel modelling and simulation environment for self-aware and self-expressive systems with transaction level modelling, simulation and detailed modelling capabilities for hardware aspects, precise process chronology execution as well as fine timing resolutions. Furthermore, industrial relevant system sizes with several self-aware and self-expressive nodes can be handled by the modelling and simulation environment.

A survey of self-awareness and its application in computing systems

Novel computing systems are increasingly being composed of large numbers of heterogeneous components, each with potentially different goals or local perspectives, and connected in networks which change over time. Management of such systems quickly becomes infeasible for humans. As such, future computing systems should be able to achieve advanced levels of autonomous behaviour. In this context, the system's ability to be self-aware and be able to self-express becomes important. This paper surveys definitions and current understanding of self-awareness and self-expression in biology and cognitive science. Subsequently, previous efforts to apply these concepts to computing systems are described. This has enabled the development of novel working definitions for self-awareness and self-expression within the context of computing systems.

Intelligent Computations for Flood Monitoring

Floods represent the most devastating natural hazards in the world, affecting more people and causing more property damage than any other natural phenomena. One of the important problems associated with flood monitoring is flood extent extraction from satellite imagery, since it is impractical to acquire the flood area through field observations. This paper presents a method to flood extent extraction from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images that is based on intelligent computations. In particular, we apply artificial neural networks, self-organizing Kohonen’s maps (SOMs), for SAR image segmentation and classification. We tested our approach to process data from three different satellite sensors: ERS-2/SAR (during flooding on Tisza river, Ukraine and Hungary, 2001), ENVISAT/ASAR WSM (Wide Swath Mode) and RADARSAT-1 (during flooding on Huaihe river, China, 2007). Obtained results showed the efficiency of our approach.

Self-organising zooms for decentralised redundancy management in visual sensor networks

When visual sensor networks are composed of cameras which can adjust the zoom factor of their own lens, one must determine the optimal zoom levels for the cameras, for a given task. This gives rise to an important trade-off between the overlap of the different cameras’ fields of view, providing redundancy, and image quality. In an object tracking task, having multiple cameras observe the same area allows for quicker recovery, when a camera fails. In contrast having narrow zooms allow for a higher pixel count on regions of interest, leading to increased tracking confidence. In this paper we propose an approach for the self-organisation of redundancy in a distributed visual sensor network, based on decentralised multi-objective online learning using only local information to approximate the global state. We explore the impact of different zoom levels on these trade-offs, when tasking omnidirectional cameras, having perfect 360-degree view, with keeping track of a varying number of moving objects. We further show how employing decentralised reinforcement learning enables zoom configurations to be achieved dynamically at runtime according to an operator’s preference for maximising either the proportion of objects tracked, confidence associated with tracking, or redundancy in expectation of camera failure. We show that explicitly taking account of the level of overlap, even based only on local knowledge, improves resilience when cameras fail. Our results illustrate the trade-off between maintaining high confidence and object coverage, and maintaining redundancy, in anticipation of future failure. Our approach provides a fully tunable decentralised method for the self-organisation of redundancy in a changing environment, according to an operator’s preferences.

Self-aware and self-expressive camera networks

Smart cameras perform on-board image analysis, adapt their algorithms to changes in their environment, and collaborate with other networked cameras to analyze the dynamic behavior of objects. A proposed computational framework adopts the concepts of self-awareness and self-expression to more efficiently manage the complex tradeoffs among performance, flexibility, resources, and reliability. The Web extra at http://youtu.be/NKe31-OKLz4 is a video demonstrating CamSim, a smart camera simulation tool, enables users to test self-adaptive and self-organizing smart-camera techniques without deploying a smart-camera network.

Análise do jogo de goalball : modelação e interpretação dos padrões de jogo da Paralimpíada de Pequim 2008

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física