Derivative hedging strategies for bitumen price risk

The objective of the study is to extend the existing hedging literature of the commodity price risks by investigating what kind of hedging strategies can be used in companies using bitumen as raw material in their production. Five different alternative swap hedging strategies in bitumen markets are empirically tested. Strategies tested are full hedge strategy, simple, conservative, and aggressive term structure strategies, and implied volatility strategy. The effectiveness of the alternative strategies is measured by excess returns compared to no hedge strategy. In addition, the downside risk of each strategy is measured with target absolute semi-deviation. Results indicate that any of the tested strategies does not outperform the no hedge strategy in terms of excess returns in all maturities. The best-performing aggressive term structure strategy succeeds to create positive excess returns only in short maturities. However, risk seems to increase hand-in-hand with the excess returns so that the best-performing strategies get the highest risk metrics as well. This implicates that the company willing to gain from favorable price movements must be ready to bear a greater risk. Thus, no superior hedging strategy over the others is found.

Electrophysiological constituents of the P100 and N170 ERP complex: De-constructing of face processing using independent component analysis and robust estimation.

The initial timing of face-specific effects in event-related potentials (ERPs) is a point of contention in face processing research. Although effects during the time of the N170 are robust in the literature, inconsistent effects during the time of the P100 challenge the interpretation of the N170 as being the initial face-specific ERP effect. The interpretation of the early P100 effects are often attributed to low-level differences between face stimuli and a host of other image categories. Research using sophisticated controls for low-level stimulus characteristics (Rousselet, Husk, Bennett, & Sekuler, 2008) report robust face effects starting at around 130 ms following stimulus onset. The present study examines the independent components (ICs) of the P100 and N170 complex in the context of a minimally controlled low-level stimulus set and a clear P100 effect for faces versus houses at the scalp. Results indicate that four ICs account for the ERPs to faces and houses in the first 200ms following stimulus onset. The IC that accounts for the majority of the scalp N170 (icNla) begins dissociating stimulus conditions at approximately 130 ms, closely replicating the scalp results of Rousselet et al. (2008). The scalp effects at the time of the P100 are accounted for by two constituent ICs (icP1a and icP1b). The IC that projects the greatest voltage at the scalp during the P100 (icP1a) shows a face-minus-house effect over the period of the P100 that is less robust than the N 170 effect of icN 1 a when measured as the average of single subject differential activation robustness. The second constituent process of the P100 (icP1b), although projecting a smaller voltage to the scalp than icP1a, shows a more robust effect for the face-minus-house contrast starting prior to 100 ms following stimulus onset. Further, the effect expressed by icP1 b takes the form of a larger negative projection to medial occipital sites for houses over faces partially canceling the larger projection of icP1a, thereby enhancing the face positivity at this time. These findings have three main implications for ERP research on face processing: First, the ICs that constitute the face-minus-house P100 effect are independent from the ICs that constitute the N170 effect. This suggests that the P100 effect and the N170 effect are anatomically independent. Second, the timing of the N170 effect can be recovered from scalp ERPs that have spatio-temporally overlapping effects possibly associated with low-level stimulus characteristics. This unmixing of the EEG signals may reduce the need for highly constrained stimulus sets, a characteristic that is not always desirable for a topic that is highly coupled to ecological validity. Third, by unmixing the constituent processes of the EEG signals new analysis strategies are made available. In particular the exploration of the relationship between cortical processes over the period of the P100 and N170 ERP complex (and beyond) may provide previously unaccessible answers to questions such as: Is the face effect a special relationship between low-level and high-level processes along the visual stream?

Optimal and Robust Designs of Step-stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments for Proportional Hazards Models

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is widely used to obtain reliability information about a product within a limited time frame. The Cox s proportional hazards (PH) model is often utilized for reliability prediction. My master thesis research focuses on designing accelerated life testing experiments for reliability estimation. We consider multiple step-stress ALT plans with censoring. The optimal stress levels and times of changing the stress levels are investigated. We discuss the optimal designs under three optimality criteria. They are D-, A- and Q-optimal designs. We note that the classical designs are optimal only if the model assumed is correct. Due to the nature of prediction made from ALT experimental data, attained under the stress levels higher than the normal condition, extrapolation is encountered. In such case, the assumed model cannot be tested. Therefore, for possible imprecision in the assumed PH model, the method of construction for robust designs is also explored.

Some Robust Exact Results on Sample Autocorrelations and Tests of Randomness

Ce Texte Presente Plusieurs Resultats Exacts Sur les Seconds Moments des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales, Pour des Series Gaussiennes Ou Non-Gaussiennes. Nous Donnons D'abord des Formules Generales Pour la Moyenne, la Variance et les Covariances des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales, Dans le Cas Ou les Variables de la Serie Sont Interchangeables. Nous Deduisons de Celles-Ci des Bornes Pour les Variances et les Covariances des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales. Ces Bornes Sont Utilisees Pour Obtenir des Limites Exactes Sur les Points Critiques Lorsqu'on Teste le Caractere Aleatoire D'une Serie Chronologique, Sans Qu'aucune Hypothese Soit Necessaire Sur la Forme de la Distribution Sous-Jacente. Nous Donnons des Formules Exactes et Explicites Pour les Variances et Covariances des Autocorrelations Dans le Cas Ou la Serie Est un Bruit Blanc Gaussien. Nous Montrons Que Ces Resultats Sont Aussi Valides Lorsque la Distribution de la Serie Est Spheriquement Symetrique. Nous Presentons les Resultats D'une Simulation Qui Indiquent Clairement Qu'on Approxime Beaucoup Mieux la Distribution des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales En Normalisant Celles-Ci Avec la Moyenne et la Variance Exactes et En Utilisant la Loi N(0,1) Asymptotique, Plutot Qu'en Employant les Seconds Moments Approximatifs Couramment En Usage. Nous Etudions Aussi les Variances et Covariances Exactes D'autocorrelations Basees Sur les Rangs des Observations.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

A robust algorithm for segmenting fluorescence images and its application to single-molecule counting

La microscopie par fluorescence de cellules vivantes produit de grandes quantités de données. Ces données sont composées d’une grande diversité au niveau de la forme des objets d’intérêts et possèdent un ratio signaux/bruit très bas. Pour concevoir un pipeline d’algorithmes efficaces en traitement d’image de microscopie par fluorescence, il est important d’avoir une segmentation robuste et fiable étant donné que celle-ci constitue l’étape initiale du traitement d’image. Dans ce mémoire, je présente MinSeg, un algorithme de segmentation d’image de microscopie par fluorescence qui fait peu d’assomptions sur l’image et utilise des propriétés statistiques pour distinguer le signal par rapport au bruit. MinSeg ne fait pas d’assomption sur la taille ou la forme des objets contenus dans l’image. Par ce fait, il est donc applicable sur une grande variété d’images. Je présente aussi une suite d’algorithmes pour la quantification de petits complexes dans des expériences de microscopie par fluorescence de molécules simples utilisant l’algorithme de segmentation MinSeg. Cette suite d’algorithmes a été utilisée pour la quantification d’une protéine nommée CENP-A qui est une variante de l’histone H3. Par cette technique, nous avons trouvé que CENP-A est principalement présente sous forme de dimère.

Establishing a Robust In Vitro Embryonic Stem Cell Differentiation Assay to Monitor the Hematopoietic Potential of DELES Clones

Afin d’effectuer des études fonctionnelles sur le génome de la souris, notre laboratoire a généré une bibliothèque de clones de cellules souches embryonnaires (ESC) présentant des suppressions chromosomiques chevauchantes aléatoires – la bibliothèque DELES. Cette bibliothèque contient des délétions couvrant environ 25% du génome murin. Dans le laboratoire, nous comptons identifier de nouveaux déterminants du destin des cellules hématopoïétiques en utilisant cet outil. Un crible primaire utilisant la benzidine pour démontrer la présence d'hémoglobine dans des corps embryoïdes (EBS) a permis d’identifier plusieurs clones délétés présentant un phénotype hématopoïétique anormal. Comme cet essai ne vérifie que la présence d'hémoglobine, le but de mon projet est d'établir un essai in vitro de différenciation des ESC permettant de mesurer le potentiel hématopoïétique de clones DELES. Mon hypothèse est que l’essai de différenciation hématopoïétique publié par le Dr Keller peut être importé dans notre laboratoire et utilisé pour étudier l'engagement hématopoïétique des clones DELES. À l’aide d’essais de RT-QPCR et de FACS, j’ai pu contrôler la cinétique de différenciation hématopoïétique en suivant l’expression des gènes hématopoïétiques et des marqueurs de surface comme CD41, c-kit, RUNX1, GATA2, CD45, β-globine 1 et TER-119. Cet essai sera utilisé pour valider le potentiel hématopoïétique des clones DELES candidats identifiés dans le crible principal. Mon projet secondaire vise à utiliser la même stratégie rétro-virale a base de Cre-loxP utilisée pour générer la bibliothèque DELES pour générer une bibliothèque de cellules KBM-7 contenant des suppressions chromosomiques chevauchantes. Mon but ici est de tester si la lignée cellulaire leuémique humaine presque haploïde KBM-7 peut être exploitée en utilisant l'approche DELES pour créer cette bibliothèque. La bibliothèque de clones KBM-7 servira à définir les activités moléculaires de drogues anti-leucémiques potentielless que nous avons identifiées dans le laboratoire parce qu’elles inhibent la croissance cellulaire dans plusieurs échantillons de leucémie myéloïde aiguë dérivés de patients. Elle me permettra également d'identifier les voies de signalisation moléculaires qui, lorsque génétiquement perturbées, peuvent conférer une résistance à ces drogues.

Ship-in-a-bottle synthesis of 2,4,6-triphenylthiapyrylium cations encapsulated in zeolites Y and beta: a novel robust photocatalyst

The 2,4,6-triphenylthiapyrylium ion has been obtained imprisoned inside the supercages of the tridirectional, large pore zeolites Y and beta via ship-in-a-bottle synthesis from chalcone and acetophenone in the presence of hydrogen sulfide. The resulting solids are efficient and robust photocatalysts that are able to degrade phenol and aniline in water with a higher efficiency than the P-25 TiO2 standard. Preliminary tests have shown that these encapsulated dye materials are also efficient photocatalysts for the oxidative degradation of malodorous sulfurcontaining molecules.

Designing a Robust Pitch Angle Controller for a 2‐Motor‐Pitch‐System in a Large Wind Turbine

Für große Windenergieanlagen werden neue Pitchregler wie Einzelblattregler oder Turmdämpfungsregler entwickelt. Während diese neuen Pitchregler die Elemente der Windenergieanlagen entlasten, wird das Pitchantriebssystem stärker belastet. Die Pitchantriebe müssen weitaus häufiger bei höherer Amplitude arbeiten. Um die neuen Pitchregler nutzen zu können, muss zunächst das Problem der Materialermüdung der Pitchantriebssysteme gelöst werden. Das Getriebespiel in Getrieben und zwischen Ritzeln und dem Zahnkranz erhöht die Materialermüdung in den Pitchantriebssystemen. In dieser Studie werden als Lösung zwei Pitchantriebe pro Blatt vorgeschlagen. Die beiden Pitchantriebe erzeugen eine Spannung auf dem Pitchantriebssystem und kompensieren das Getriebespiel. Drehmomentspitzen, die eine Materialermüdung verursachen, treten bei diesem System mit zwei Pitchmotoren nicht mehr auf. Ein Reglerausgang wird via Drehmomentverteiler auf die beiden Pitchantriebe übertragen. Es werden mehrere Methoden verglichen und der leistungsfähigste Drehmomentverteiler ausgewählt. Während die Pitchantriebe in Bewegung sind, ändert sich die Spannung auf den Getrieben. Die neuen Pitchregler verstellen den Pitchwinkel in einer sinusförmigen Welle. Der Profilgenerator, der derzeit als Pitchwinkelregler verwendet wird, kann eine Phasenverzögerung im sinusförmigen Pitchwinkel verursachen. Zusätzlich erzeugen große Windenergieanlagen eine hohe Last, die sich störend auf die Pitchbewegung auswirkt. Änderungen der viskosen Reibung und Nichtlinearität der Gleitreibung bzw. Coulombsche Reibung des Pitchregelsystems erschweren zudem die Entwicklung eines Pitchwinkelreglers. Es werden zwei robuste Regler (H∞ und μ–synthesis ) vorgestellt und mit zwei herkömmlichen Reglern (PD und Kaskadenregler) verglichen. Zur Erprobung des Pitchantriebssystems und des Pitchwinkelreglers wird eine Prüfanordnung verwendet. Da der Kranz nicht mit einem Positionssensor ausgestattet ist, wird ein Überwachungselement entwickelt, das die Kranzposition meldet. Neben den beiden Pitchantrieben sind zwei Lastmotoren mit dem Kranz verbunden. Über die beiden Lastmotoren wird das Drehmoment um die Pitchachse einer Windenergieanlage simuliert. Das Drehmoment um die Pitchachse setzt sich zusammen aus Schwerkraft, aerodynamischer Kraft, zentrifugaler Belastung, Reibung aufgrund des Kippmoments und der Beschleunigung bzw. Verzögerung des Rotorblatts. Das Blatt wird als Zweimassenschwinger modelliert. Große Windenergieanlagen und neue Pitchregler für die Anlagen erfordern ein neues Pitchantriebssystem. Als Hardware-Lösung bieten sich zwei Pitchantriebe an mit einem robusten Regler als Software.

Optimizing Robust Quantum Gates in Open Quantum Systems

We are currently at the cusp of a revolution in quantum technology that relies not just on the passive use of quantum effects, but on their active control. At the forefront of this revolution is the implementation of a quantum computer. Encoding information in quantum states as “qubits” allows to use entanglement and quantum superposition to perform calculations that are infeasible on classical computers. The fundamental challenge in the realization of quantum computers is to avoid decoherence – the loss of quantum properties – due to unwanted interaction with the environment. This thesis addresses the problem of implementing entangling two-qubit quantum gates that are robust with respect to both decoherence and classical noise. It covers three aspects: the use of efficient numerical tools for the simulation and optimal control of open and closed quantum systems, the role of advanced optimization functionals in facilitating robustness, and the application of these techniques to two of the leading implementations of quantum computation, trapped atoms and superconducting circuits. After a review of the theoretical and numerical foundations, the central part of the thesis starts with the idea of using ensemble optimization to achieve robustness with respect to both classical fluctuations in the system parameters, and decoherence. For the example of a controlled phasegate implemented with trapped Rydberg atoms, this approach is demonstrated to yield a gate that is at least one order of magnitude more robust than the best known analytic scheme. Moreover this robustness is maintained even for gate durations significantly shorter than those obtained in the analytic scheme. Superconducting circuits are a particularly promising architecture for the implementation of a quantum computer. Their flexibility is demonstrated by performing optimizations for both diagonal and non-diagonal quantum gates. In order to achieve robustness with respect to decoherence, it is essential to implement quantum gates in the shortest possible amount of time. This may be facilitated by using an optimization functional that targets an arbitrary perfect entangler, based on a geometric theory of two-qubit gates. For the example of superconducting qubits, it is shown that this approach leads to significantly shorter gate durations, higher fidelities, and faster convergence than the optimization towards specific two-qubit gates. Performing optimization in Liouville space in order to properly take into account decoherence poses significant numerical challenges, as the dimension scales quadratically compared to Hilbert space. However, it can be shown that for a unitary target, the optimization only requires propagation of at most three states, instead of a full basis of Liouville space. Both for the example of trapped Rydberg atoms, and for superconducting qubits, the successful optimization of quantum gates is demonstrated, at a significantly reduced numerical cost than was previously thought possible. Together, the results of this thesis point towards a comprehensive framework for the optimization of robust quantum gates, paving the way for the future realization of quantum computers.

Analysis and Implementation of Robust Grasping Behaviors

This thesis addresses the problem of developing automatic grasping capabilities for robotic hands. Using a 2-jointed and a 4-jointed nmodel of the hand, we establish the geometric conditions necessary for achieving form closure grasps of cylindrical objects. We then define and show how to construct the grasping pre-image for quasi-static (friction dominated) and zero-G (inertia dominated) motions for sensorless and sensor-driven grasps with and without arm motions. While the approach does not rely on detailed modeling, it is computationally inexpensive, reliable, and easy to implement. Example behaviors were successfully implemented on the Salisbury hand and on a planar 2-fingered, 4 degree-of-freedom hand.

A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating derivative financial asset pricing formulae using learning networks. To demonstrate feasibility, we first simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis functions, multilayer perceptrons, and projection pursuit. To illustrate practical relevance, we also apply our approach to S&P 500 futures options data from 1987 to 1991.