913 resultados para risk-based modeling


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El presente estudio tiene como objetivo determinar la relación que existe entre la implementación de un sistema de gestión de seguridad y salud en el trabajo (SGSST), y la frecuencia y la severidad de la accidentalidad en la industria de la construcción en Colombia. Para ello se seleccionaron 35 empresas que realizan actividades relacionadas con la edificación, infraestructura e interventoría, que hubiesen implementado un SGSST para la intervención de los riesgos de accidentes y que contaran con la evaluación del mismo. La evaluación del SGSST está enmarcada en cinco dimensiones o criterios: planeación, política, implementación, manejo integral del accidente y revisión por la gerencia. Cada una evaluada a través de diferentes requisitos y se presentan en una escala de 1 a 10, siendo 10 el nivel más alto del cumplimiento por requisito. Teniendo los resultados de esta calificación, la tasa (proporción entre los accidentes reportados y los trabajadores de cada empresa) y los días de incapacidad (ausentismo por accidente de trabajo), se realizó un análisis de las medidas descriptivas consolidado por las empresas del estudio: tendencia central y dispersión para número de trabajadores, tasa de accidentalidad, días de incapacidad y el resultado de los totales de cada criterio de la evaluación y el gran total. Para estudiar la relación entre los resultados de la evaluación y los indicadores de tasa y días, se llevó a cabo un análisis de correlación y regresión lineal entre los indicadores de accidentalidad y los resultados de las puntuaciones de los criterios. Esta correlación se realizó tanto para la primera evaluación como para la segunda. En las dos mediciones las correlaciones fueron negativas mostrando que existe una disminución en la tasa de accidentalidad y días de incapacidad entre una evaluación y la otra. En el análisis de regresión, en la primera evaluación por cada unidad que aumentó la calificación global, se presentó una reducción de la tasa de frecuencia de 0.140. En la segunda evaluación por cada unidad que aumentó la calificación global, la tasa se redujo en 0.159. Ambos hallazgos soportan la necesidad de implementar un SGSST para ayudar a reducir el número inaceptable de lesiones y enfermedades en la industria de la construcción.

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Recent technological advancements have played a key role in seamlessly integrating cloud, edge, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, giving rise to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum paradigm. This cloud model connects many heterogeneous resources that generate a large amount of data and collaborate to deliver next-generation services. While it has the potential to reshape several application domains, the number of connected entities remarkably broadens the security attack surface. One of the main problems is the lack of security measures to adapt to the dynamic and evolving conditions of the Cloud-To-Thing Continuum. To address this challenge, this dissertation proposes novel adaptable security mechanisms. Adaptable security is the capability of security controls, systems, and protocols to dynamically adjust to changing conditions and scenarios. However, since the design and development of novel security mechanisms can be explored from different perspectives and levels, we place our attention on threat modeling and access control. The contributions of the thesis can be summarized as follows. First, we introduce a model-based methodology that secures the design of edge and cyber-physical systems. This solution identifies threats, security controls, and moving target defense techniques based on system features. Then, we focus on access control management. Since access control policies are subject to modifications, we evaluate how they can be efficiently shared among distributed areas, highlighting the effectiveness of distributed ledger technologies. Furthermore, we propose a risk-based authorization middleware, adjusting permissions based on real-time data, and a federated learning framework that enhances trustworthiness by weighting each client's contributions according to the quality of their partial models. Finally, since authorization revocation is another critical concern, we present an efficient revocation scheme for verifiable credentials in IoT networks, featuring decentralization, demanding minimum storage and computing capabilities. All the mechanisms have been evaluated in different conditions, proving their adaptability to the Cloud-to-Thing Continuum landscape.

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For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.

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The three-dimensional structures of leucine-rich repeat (LRR) -containing proteins from five different families were previously predicted based on the crystal structure of the ribonuclease inhibitor. using an approach that combined homology-based modeling, structure-based sequence alignment of LRRs, and several rational assumptions. The structural models have been produced based on very limited sequence similarity, which, in general. cannot yield trustworthy predictions. Recently, the protein structures from three of these five families have been determined. In this report we estimate the quality of the modeling approach by comparing the models with the experimentally determined structures. The comparison suggests that the general architecture, curvature, interior/exterior orientations of side chains. and backbone conformation of the LRR structures can be predicted correctly. On the other hand. the analysis revealed that, in some cases. it is difficult to predict correctly the twist of the overall super-helical structure. Taking into consideration the conclusions from these comparisons, we identified a new family of bacterial LRR proteins and present its structural model. The reliability of the LRR protein modeling suggests that it would be informative to apply similar modeling approaches to other classes of solenoid proteins.

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The activity of Control Center operators is important to guarantee the effective performance of Power Systems. Operators’ actions are crucial to deal with incidents, especially severe faults like blackouts. In this paper, we present an Intelligent Tutoring approach for training Portuguese Control Center operators in tasks like incident analysis and diagnosis, and service restoration of Power Systems. Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) approach is used in the training of the operators, having into account context awareness and the unobtrusive integration in the working environment. Several Artificial Intelligence techniques were criteriously used and combined together to obtain an effective Intelligent Tutoring environment, namely Multiagent Systems, Neural Networks, Constraint-based Modeling, Intelligent Planning, Knowledge Representation, Expert Systems, User Modeling, and Intelligent User Interfaces.

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Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

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Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

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Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia da Manutenção

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Hospitals are considered as a special and important type of indoor public place where air quality has significant impacts on potential health outcomes. Information on indoor air quality of these environments, concerning exposures to particulate matter (PM) and related toxicity, is limited though. This work aims to evaluate risks associated with inhalation exposure to ten toxic metals and chlorine (As, Ni, Cr, Cd, Pb, Mn, Se, Ba, Al, Si, and Cl) in coarse (PM2.5–10) and fine (PM2.5) particles in a Portuguese hospital in comparison with studies representative of other countries. Samples were collected during 1 month in one urban hospital; elemental PM characterization was determined by proton-induced X-ray emission. Noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were assessed according to the methodology provided by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA; Region III Risk-Based Concentration Table) for three different age categories of hospital personnel (adults, >20, and <65 years) and patients (considering nine different age groups, i.e., children of 1–3 years to seniors of >65 years). The estimated noncarcinogenic risks due to occupational inhalation exposure to PM2.5-bound metals ranged from 5.88×10−6 for Se (adults, 55–64 years) to 9.35×10−1 for As (adults, 20–24 years) with total noncarcinogenic risks (sum of all metals) above the safe level for all three age categories. As and Cl (the latter due to its high abundances) were the most important contributors (approximately 90 %) to noncarcinogenic risks. For PM2.5–10, noncarcinogenic risks of all metals were acceptable to all age groups. Concerning carcinogenic risks, for Ni and Pb, they were negligible (<1×10−6) in both PM fractions for all age groups of hospital personnel; potential risks were observed for As and Cr with values in PM2.5 exceeding (up to 62 and 5 times, respectively) USEPA guideline across all age groups; for PM2.5–10, increased excess risks of As and Cr were observed particularly for long-term exposures (adults, 55–64 years). Total carcinogenic risks highly (up to 67 times) exceeded the recommended level for all age groups, thus clearly showing that occupational exposure to metals in fine particles pose significant risks. If the extensive working hours of hospital medical staff were considered, the respective noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were increased, the latter for PM2.5 exceeding the USEPA cumulative guideline of 10−4. For adult patients, the estimated noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were approximately three times higher than for personnel, with particular concerns observed for children and adolescents.

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A revision of several paths for the Quality journey is presented: from Quality Gurus and Total Quality Management (TQM) models to the ISO 9000 International Standards Series. Since ISO 9001:2008 is now in the revision process to the expected ISO 9001:2015 version, an analysis is made of he proposed changes and the underlying reasons and the impacts foreseen on the more than 1.3 Million certified organizations. This revision should be a step towards TQM and reflect the changes of an increasingly complex, demanding and dynamic environment, while assuring that complying organizations are able to provide conformity products and services that satisfy their customers. Major benefits are expected such as less emphasis on documentation and new/reinforced approaches: consideration of Organizational Context and (relevant) Stakeholders, Risk Based thinking and Knowledge Management.

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O pretexto da implementação de um Sistema de Gestão da Qualidade numa empresa de produção de fundos copados, constitui pretexto para provocar uma análise mais profunda e fundamentada do tema e objetivo para este projeto. Entender um conceito tão subjetivo como o de qualidade afigura-se como necessidade primária para o início da reflexão. Percorremos em seguida a história do conceito desde a Europa Medieval até à revolução na qualidade que acabaria por acontecer no Japão após a II Guerra Mundial. A qualidade como a entendemos hoje deve-se ainda a contributos de personalidades que identificaram vários métodos que surgiram ao longo do tempo e que foram melhorando o conceito, de entre as quais se referem três: William Deming, Joseph Moses Juran e Philip B. Crosby. Em seguida reflete-se acerca do impacto real da implementação da ISO 9000, recorrendo ao estudo de Olivier Boiral, que fornece uma aproximação bastante real dos benefícios da implementação de sistemas de gestão da qualidade. Ainda no segundo capítulo analisamos a importância do processo de certificação, concluindo que a tarefa extra de uma organização externa certificar o SGQ constitui indubitavelmente uma forma de manter o sistema rigoroso e disciplinado. No terceiro capítulo, “ISO 9001:2008 VERSUS ISO 9001:2015”, analisamos em detalhe as principais alterações da futura norma ISO 9001:2015 relativamente à iISO 9001:2008: introdução do “pensamento baseado no risco”; enfase dado à abordagem por processos; enfase dado à “gestão da mudança”; “gestão do conhecimento”; “direção estratégica”, integrando os sistemas de gestão e da qualidade; a determinação de que todas as normas que integram um sistema de gestão seguirão um novo formato, chamado “high-level structure” como definido no Anexo SL; e enfase ainda dado à consideração do feedback de todos os processos e stakeholders envolvidos. Seguidamente, no capítulo “Apresentação da “Empresa Lda””, apresenta-se a empresa alvo deste caso de estudo, uma indústria metalomecânica que fabrica fundos copados para o mercado nacional e internacional. Analisadas as principais alterações entre a atual e a futura norma, no capítulo “SGQ Proposto Assente na Futura Norma ISO 9001:2015” propõem-se alterações ao sistema já implementado anteriormente com base na aceitação da futura ISO 9001:2015 e alterações que esta prevê. Os processos e procedimentos que representem mais tempo e custo serão 6 identificados, assim como aqueles que poderão ser mais rapidamente adaptados para que o SGQ seja assim otimizado e mais adaptado aos recursos disponíveis. Para esta reflexão e desenvolvimento de uma nova estratégia recorre-se a vários instrumentos: estabelecem-se objetivos, efectua-se a análise SWOT, uma análise FMEA, a Análise de Gestão do Conhecimento e finalmente a Análise das Partes Interessadas. Em conjunto com as propostas de ações referidas nas análises anteriores descrevem-se de seguida as propostas de ação de intervenção nos fluxogramas. Os processos e procedimentos que aqui se destacam são aqueles que se consideram poderem constituir impacto eficaz e que vão ao encontro daquilo que é proposto na nova norma ISO 9001:2015, tendo em conta as principais alterações vistas anteriormente.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Under the framework of constraint based modeling, genome-scale metabolic models (GSMMs) have been used for several tasks, such as metabolic engineering and phenotype prediction. More recently, their application in health related research has spanned drug discovery, biomarker identification and host-pathogen interactions, targeting diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer, obesity or diabetes. In the last years, the development of novel techniques for genome sequencing and other high-throughput methods, together with advances in Bioinformatics, allowed the reconstruction of GSMMs for human cells. Considering the diversity of cell types and tissues present in the human body, it is imperative to develop tissue-specific metabolic models. Methods to automatically generate these models, based on generic human metabolic models and a plethora of omics data, have been proposed. However, their results have not yet been adequately and critically evaluated and compared. This work presents a survey of the most important tissue or cell type specific metabolic model reconstruction methods, which use literature, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics data, together with a global template model. As a case study, we analyzed the consistency between several omics data sources and reconstructed distinct metabolic models of hepatocytes using different methods and data sources as inputs. The results show that omics data sources have a poor overlapping and, in some cases, are even contradictory. Additionally, the hepatocyte metabolic models generated are in many cases not able to perform metabolic functions known to be present in the liver tissue. We conclude that reliable methods for a priori omics data integration are required to support the reconstruction of complex models of human cells.

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The overall purpose of this study was to develop a thorough inspection regime for onsite wastewater treatment systems, which is practical and could be implemented on all site conditions across the country. With approximately 450,000 onsite wastewater treatment systems in Ireland a risk based methodology is required for site selection. This type of approach will identify the areas with the highest potential risk to human health and the environment and these sites should be inspected first. In order to gain the required knowledge to develop an inspection regime in-depth and extensive research was earned out. The following areas of pertinent interest were examined and reviewed, history of domestic wastewater treatment, relevant wastewater legislation and guidance documents and potential detrimental impacts. Analysis of a questionnaire from a prior study, which assessed the resources available and the types of inspections currently undertaken by Local authorities was carried out. In addition to the analysis of the questionnaire results, interviews were carried out with several experts involved in the area of domestic wastewater treatment. The interview focussed on twelve key questions which were directed towards the expert’s opinions on the vital aspects of developing an inspection regime. The background research, combined with the questionnaire analysis and information from the interviews provided a solid foundation for the development of an inspection regime. Chapter 8 outlines the inspection regime which has been developed for this study. The inspection regime includes a desktop study, consultation with the homeowners, visual site inspection, non-invasive site tests, and inspection of the treatment systems. The general opinion from the interviews carried out, was that a standardised approach for the inspections was necessary. For this reason an inspection form was produced which provides a standard systematic approach for inspectors to follow. This form is displayed in Appendix 3. The development of a risk based methodology for site selection was discussed and a procedure similar in approach to the Geological Survey of Irelands Groundwater Protection Schemes was proposed. The EPA is currently developing a risk based methodology, but it is not available to the general public yet. However, the EPA provided a copy of a paper outlining the key aspects of their methodology. The methodology will use risk maps which take account of the following parameters: housing density, areas with inadequate soil conditions, risk of water pollution through surface and subsurface pathways. Sites identified with having the highest potential risk to human health and the environment shall be inspected first. Based on the research carried out a number of recommendations were made which are outlined in Chapter 10. The principle conclusion was that, if these systems fail to operate satisfactorily, home owners need to understand that these systems dispose of the effluent to the 'ground' and the effluent becomes part of the hydrological cycle; therefore, they are a potential hazard to the environment and human health. It is the owners, their families and their neighbours who will be at most immediate risk.