When opportunity matters: Comparing the risk taking attitudes of prisoners and recently released ex-prisoners

Risk-taking tendencies and environmental opportunities to commit crime are two key features in understanding criminal behavior. Upon release from prison, ex-prisoners have a much greater opportunity to engage in risky activity and to commit criminal acts. We hypothesized that ex-prisoners would exhibit greater risk-taking tendencies compared to prisoners who have fewer opportunities to engage in risky activity and who are monitored constantly by prison authorities. Using cumulative prospect theory to compare the risky choices of prisoners and ex-prisoners our study revealed that ex-prisoners who were within 16 weeks of their prison release made riskier choices than prisoners. Our data indicate that previous studies comparing prisoners behind bars with nonoffenders may have underestimated the risk-taking tendencies of offenders. The present findings emphasize the central role played by risk-taking attitudes in criminal offending and highlight a need to examine offenders after release from prison.

Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

Learning from risks: A tool for post-project risk assessment

Risk management (RM) comprises of risk identification, risk analysis, response planning, monitoring and action planning tasks that are carried out throughout the life cycle of a project in order to ensure that project objectives are met. Although the methodological aspects of RM are well-defined, the philosophical background is rather vague. In this paper, a learning-based approach is proposed. In order to implement this approach in practice, a tool has been developed to facilitate construction of a lessons learned database that contains risk-related information and risk assessment throughout the life cycle of a project. The tool is tested on a real construction project. The case study findings demonstrate that it can be used for storing as well as updating risk-related information and finally, carrying out a post-project appraisal. The major weaknesses of the tool are identified as, subjectivity of the risk rating process and unwillingness of people to enter information about reasons of failure.

Risk pricing practices in finance, insurance and construction

A review of current risk pricing practices in the financial, insurance and construction sectors is conducted through a comprehensive literature review. The purpose was to inform a study on risk and price in the tendering processes of contractors: specifically, how contractors take account of risk when they are calculating their bids for construction work. The reference to mainstream literature was in view of construction management research as a field of application rather than a fundamental academic discipline. Analytical models are used for risk pricing in the financial sector. Certain mathematical laws and principles of insurance are used to price risk in the insurance sector. construction contractors and practitioners are described to traditionally price allowances for project risk using mechanisms such as intuition and experience. Project risk analysis models have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used because of problems practitioners face when confronted with them. A discussion of practices across the three sectors shows that the construction industry does not approach risk according to the sophisticated mechanisms of the two other sectors. This is not a poor situation in itself. However, knowledge transfer from finance and insurance can help construction practitioners. But also, formal risk models for contractors should be informed by the commercial exigencies and unique characteristics of the construction sector.

Fuzzy analysis: a vague way of dealing with uncertainty in real estate analysis?

Risk and uncertainty are, to say the least, poorly considered by most individuals involved in real estate analysis - in both development and investment appraisal. Surveyors continue to express 'uncertainty' about the value (risk) of using relatively objective methods of analysis to account for these factors. These methods attempt to identify the risk elements more explicitly. Conventionally this is done by deriving probability distributions for the uncontrolled variables in the system. A suggested 'new' way of "being able to express our uncertainty or slight vagueness about some of the qualitative judgements and not entirely certain data required in the course of the problem..." uses the application of fuzzy logic. This paper discusses and demonstrates the terminology and methodology of fuzzy analysis. In particular it attempts a comparison of the procedures with those used in 'conventional' risk analysis approaches and critically investigates whether a fuzzy approach offers an alternative to the use of probability based analysis for dealing with aspects of risk and uncertainty in real estate analysis

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.

Is the risk of illness through consuming vegetables irrigated with reclaimed wastewater different for different population groups?

The use of reclaimed wastewater for irrigation of horticultural crops is commonplace in many parts of the world and is likely to increase. Concerns about risks to human health arising from such practice, especially with respect to infection with microbial pathogens, are common. Several factors need to be considered when attempting to quantify the risk posed to a population, such as the concentration of pathogens in the source water, water treatment efficiency, the volume of water coming into contact with the crop, and the die-off rate of pathogens in the environment. Another factor, which has received relatively less attention, is the amount of food consumed. Plainly, higher consumption rates place one at greater risk of becoming infected. The amount of vegetables consumed is known to vary among ethic groups. We use Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Modelling (QMRA) to see if certain ethnic groups are exposed to higher risks by virtue of their consumption behaviour. The results suggest that despite the disparities in consumption rates by different ethnic groups they generally all faced comparable levels of risks. We conclude by suggesting that QMRA should be used to assess the relative levels of risk faced by groups based on divisions other than ethnicity, such as those with compromised immune systems.

A security risk management approach for e-commerce

E-commerce security is a complex issue; it is concerned with a number of security risks that can appear at either a technical level or organisational level. This paper uses a systemic framework, the viable system model (VSM) to determine the high level security risks and then uses baseline security methods to determine the lower level security risks.

On the communal analysis suspicion scoring for identity crime in streaming credit applications

This paper describes a rapid technique: communal analysis suspicion scoring (CASS), for generating numeric suspicion scores on streaming credit applications based on implicit links to each other, over both time and space. CASS includes pair-wise communal scoring of identifier attributes for applications, definition of categories of suspiciousness for application-pairs, the incorporation of temporal and spatial weights, and smoothed k-wise scoring of multiple linked application-pairs. Results on mining several hundred thousand real credit applications demonstrate that CASS reduces false alarm rates while maintaining reasonable hit rates. CASS is scalable for this large data sample, and can rapidly detect early symptoms of identity crime. In addition, new insights have been observed from the relationships between applications.

Development of a supply chain management security risk management method : a conceptual model

This paper continues the prior research undertaken by Warren and Leitch (2009), in which a series of initial research findings were presented. These findings identified that in Australia, Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems were the weak link of Australian critical infrastructure. This paper focuses upon the security and risk issues associated with SCM systems and puts forward a new SCM Security Risk Management method, continuing the research presented at the European Conference of Information Warfare in 2009.This paper proposes a new Security Risk Analysis model that deals with the complexity of protecting SCM critical infrastructure systems and also introduces a new approach that organisations can apply to protect their SCM systems. The paper describes the importance of SCM systems from a critical infrastructure protection perspective. The paper then discusses the importance of SCM systems in relation to supporting centres of populations and gives examples of the impact of failure. The paper proposes a new SCM security risk analysis method that deals with the security issues related to SCM security and the security issues associated with Information Security. The paper will also discuss a risk framework that can be used to protect against high and low level associated security risks using a new SCM security risk analysis method.

Assessing health risk of reclaimed water using human cell culture.

For risk analysis of reclaimed water, current animal and toxicity testing may not detect subtle effects such as interactions that could contribute to complex diseases such as cancers that develop over a long period of time. There is a need for assays that can be validated against known human physiological processes. We have previously validated sensitive human cell culture assays for their responsiveness to agents that induce carcinogenesis in vivo. In this initial study we analysed the effects of three batches of reclaimed water on human colonic cells. At concentrations of up to 10-fold, they had no significant effect on the cellular markers, indicating an overall lack of biological activity. The assay has potential but needs to be refined to maximise its sensitivity.

A social network analysis model for analysing stakeholder-associated safety risks in infrastructure projects

An important strategy in the long-term blueprint for making Australia's 18 capital and major regional cities more productive, sustainable and liveable is to develop high quality public infrastructure systems to improve civic quality of life. Because of the unique features of construction activities, such as long period, complicated processes, and dynamic organizational structures, infrastructure projects normally involve multiple stakeholders and are subject to various risks, especially safety issues. Any negligence or mismanagement of critical safety risks will have huge impact on achieving project objectives and success. Although many previous studies have identified and assessed various safety risks in construction industry, a main research gap is that these studies ignored a fact that most risks are interrelated and associated with internal and external stakeholders of the projects. The lack of a theoretical foundation and appropriate methods for analysing stakeholder-associated safety risks and their interdependencies in infrastructure projects hinders effective risk management processes and the formulations of decision strategies. This research aims at enabling higher performance in strategic safety risk management in infrastructure projects through the development of a holistic risk analysis model using Stakeholder and Social Network Theories. The outcomes can broaden project managers' awareness of emerging influential safety risks and enhance their ability to perceive, understand, assess, and mitigate safety risks in an effective and efficient way; thereby higher performance in strategic risk management could be achieved in infrastructure projects.

Analysing stakeholder-associated risks in green buildings : a social network analysis method

In the research of risk associated with developing energy and water efficient green buildings, previous studies had mainly focused on "what the risks are and how the risks may impact on project objectives", which were from an inward looking self-perspective and treated the risks in isolation from one another. While intensive research efforts have been dedicated to risk identification, assessment, classification, prioritisation and mitigation, a research gap exists, that is previous studies had ignored the fact that most risks are interrelated and associated with internal or external project stakeholders. To remedy the gap, this current research developed and presented a SNA (Social Network Analysis) based stakeholder-associated risk analysis method to assess risks in green buildings and the interactions between the risks. A case study has been conducted to demonstrate and validate this method. This research contributes to the development of a new theory to model the interdependent and interactive relationships of risks by using SNA as a methodology. This research should broaden project managers' awareness of the influential risks in green building and enhance their ability to perceive, understand, assess, and mitigate the risks in an effective and efficient way, thereby achieving higher performance in strategic risk management and stakeholder communication in green building development.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project's objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner