A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Antioxidants in Athlete's Basic Nutrition: Considerations towards a Guideline for the Intake of Vitamin C and Vitamin E

Antioxidants in acute physical exercise and exercise training remain a hot topic in sport nutrition, exercise physiology and biology, in general (Jackson, 2008; Margaritis and Rousseau, 2008; Gomez-Cabrera et al., 2012; Nikolaidis et al., 2012). During the past few decades, antioxidants have received attention predominantly as a nutritional strategy for preventing or minimising detrimental effects of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS), which are generated during and after strenuous exercise (Jackson, 2008, 2009; Powers and Jackson, 2008). Antioxidant supplementation has become a common practice among athletes as a means to (theoretically) reduce oxidative stress, promote recovery and enhance performance (Peternelj and Coombes, 2011). However, until now, requirements of antioxidant micronutrients and antioxidant compounds for athletes training for and competing in different sport events, including marathon running, triathlon races or team sport events involving repeated sprinting, have not been determined sufficiently (Williams et al., 2006; Margaritis and Rousseau, 2008). Crucially, evidence has been emerging that higher dosages of antioxidants may not necessarily be beneficial in this context, but can also elicit detrimental effects by interfering with performance-enhancing (Gomez-Cabrera et al., 2008) and health-promoting training adaptations (Ristow et al., 2009). As originally postulated in a pioneering study on exercise-induced production of RONS by Davies et al. (1982) in the early 1980s, evidence has been increasing in recent years that RONS are not only damaging agents, but also act as signalling molecules for regulating muscle function (Reid, 2001; Jackson, 2008) and for initiating adaptive responses to exercise (Jackson, 2009; Powers et al., 2010). The recognition that antioxidants could, vice versa, interact with the signalling pathways underlying the responses to acute (and repeated) bouts of exercise has contributed important novel aspects to the continued discussion on antioxidant requirements for athletes. In view of the recent advances in this field, it is the aim of this report to examine the current knowledge of antioxidants, in particular of vitamins C and E, in the basic nutrition of athletes. While overviews on related topics including basic mechanisms of exercise-induced oxidative stress, redox biology, antioxidant defence systems and a summary of studies on antioxidant supplementation during exercise training are provided, this does not mean that this report is comprehensive. Several issues of the expanding and multidisciplinary field of antioxidants and exercise are covered elsewhere in this book and/or in the literature. Exemplarily, the reader is referred to reviews on oxidative stress (Konig et al., 2001; Vollaard et al., 2005; Knez et al., 2006; Powers and Jackson, 2008; Nikolaidis et al., 2012), redox-sensitive signalling and muscle function (Reid, 2001; Vollaard et al., 2005; Jackson, 2008; Ji, 2008; Powers and Jackson, 2008; Powers et al., 2010; Radak et al., 2013) and antioxidant supplementation (Williams et al., 2006; Peake et al., 2007; Peternelj and Coombes, 2011) in the context with exercise. Within the scope of the report, we rather aim to address the question regarding requirements of antioxidants, specifically vitamins C and E, during exercise training, draw conclusions and provide practical implications from the recent research.

Response of laminated glass panels to near field blast events

This thesis develops and applies an analytical method to treat the blast response of glass façades and studies the influence of controlling parameters such as all component materials and geometric properties, support conditions and energy absorption, and hence establishes a framework for their design for a credible blast event.

A comprehensive neuropsychiatric study of elderly twins: The Older Australian Twins Study

The Older Australian Twins Study (OATS) was recently initiated to investigate genetic and environmental factors and their associations and interactions in healthy brain ageing and ageing-related neurocognitive disorders. The study extends the classic MZ-DZ design to include one or two equivalently aged siblings for each twin pair and utilizes the rich resources of the Australian Twin Registry. The study has a number of distinguishing features including comprehensive psychiatric, neuropsychological, cardiovascular, metabolic, and neuroimaging assessments, a longitudinal design and links with a brain donor program. The study measures many behavioral and environmental factors, but in particular lifetime physical and mental activity, physical and psychological trauma, loss of parent early in life, later losses and life events, early-life socioeconomic environment, alcohol and drug use, occupational exposure, and nutrition. It also includes comprehensive cardiovascular assessment, blood biochemistry, genetics and proteomics. The socio-demographic and health data on the first 172 pairs of twins participating in this study are presented. Prevalence of mild cognitive impairment is 12.8% and of dementia 1.5% in the sample. The target sample size is 1000, with at least 400 pairs of twins aged 65-90 years. The cohort will be assessed every two years, with in-depth assessments being repeated. OATS offers an excellent opportunity for collaboration with other similar studies as well as researchers who share the same interests.

Clustering acoustic events in environmental recordings for species richness surveys

Environmental acoustic recordings can be used to perform avian species richness surveys, whereby a trained ornithologist can observe the species present by listening to the recording. This could be made more efficient by using computational methods for iteratively selecting the richest parts of a long recording for the human observer to listen to, a process known as “smart sampling”. This allows scaling up to much larger ecological datasets. In this paper we explore computational approaches based on information and diversity of selected samples. We propose to use an event detection algorithm to estimate the amount of information present in each sample. We further propose to cluster the detected events for a better estimate of this amount of information. Additionally, we present a time dispersal approach to estimating diversity between iteratively selected samples. Combinations of approaches were evaluated on seven 24-hour recordings that have been manually labeled by bird watchers. The results show that on average all the methods we have explored would allow annotators to observe more new species in fewer minutes compared to a baseline of random sampling at dawn.

Do repeated rumble strip hits improve driver alertness?

Driving while sleepy is associated with increased crash risk. Rumble strips are designed to alert a sleepy or inattentive driver when they deviate outside their driving lane. The current study sought to examine the effects of repeated rumble strip hits on levels of physiological and subjective sleepiness as well as simulated driving performance. In total, 36 regular shift workers drove a high-fidelity moving base simulator on a simulated road with rumble strips installed at the shoulder and centre line after a working a full night shift. The results show that on average, the first rumble strip occurred after 20 minutes of driving, with subsequent hits occurring 10 minutes later, with the last three occurring approximately every 5 minutes thereafter. Specifically, it was found that the first rumble strip hit reduced physiological sleepiness; however, subsequent hits did not increase alertness. Moreover, the results also demonstrate that increased subjective sleepiness levels, via the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale, were associated with a greater probability of hitting a rumble strip. The present results suggest that sleepiness is very resilient to even strongly arousing stimuli, with physiologicl and subjective sleepiness increasing over the duration of the drive, despite the interference by rumble strips.

Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults

Background Recovery strategies are often usedwith the intention of preventing orminimisingmuscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. Objectives To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts. The searches were run in August 2015. Selection criteria We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity.We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Main results Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64 physically active predominantly young adults (mean age 23 years). All but four participants were male. Two trials were parallel group trials (44 participants) and two were cross-over trials (20 participants). The trials were heterogeneous, including the type, temperature, duration and frequency of WBC, and the type of preceding exercise. None of the trials reported active surveillance of predefined adverse events. All four trials had design features that carried a high risk of bias, potentially limiting the reliability of their findings. The evidence for all outcomes was classified as ’very low’ quality based on the GRADE criteria. Two comparisons were tested: WBC versus control (rest or no WBC), tested in four studies; and WBC versus far-infrared therapy, also tested in one study. No studies compared WBC with other active interventions, such as cold water immersion, or different types and applications of WBC. All four trials compared WBC with rest or no WBC. There was very low quality evidence for lower self-reported muscle soreness (pain at rest) scores after WBC at 1 hour (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.42 to -0.12; 20 participants, 2 cross-over trials); 24 hours (SMD -0.57, 95%CI -1.48 to 0.33) and 48 hours (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.37 to 0.21), both with 38 participants, 2 cross-over studies, 1 parallel group study; and 72 hours (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -2.54 to 1.24; 29 participants, 1 cross-over study, 1 parallel group study). Of note is that the 95% CIs also included either no between-group differences or a benefit in favour of the control group. One small cross-over trial (9 participants) found no difference in tiredness but better well-being after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. One small cross-over trial involving nine well-trained runners provided very low quality evidence of lower levels of muscle soreness after WBC, when compared with infrared therapy, at 1 hour follow-up, but not at 24 or 48 hours. The same trial found no difference in well-being but less tiredness after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. Authors’ conclusions There is insufficient evidence to determine whether whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) reduces self-reportedmuscle soreness, or improves subjective recovery, after exercise compared with passive rest or no WBC in physically active young adult males. There is no evidence on the use of this intervention in females or elite athletes. The lack of evidence on adverse events is important given that the exposure to extreme temperature presents a potential hazard. Further high-quality, well-reported research in this area is required and must provide detailed reporting of adverse events.

Nintendo Wii Fit as an adjunct to physiotherapy following lower limb fractures: Preliminary feasibility, safety and sample size considerations

Objective The Nintendo Wii Fit integrates virtual gaming with body movement, and may be suitable as an adjunct to conventional physiotherapy following lower limb fractures. This study examined the feasibility and safety of using the Wii Fit as an adjunct to outpatient physiotherapy following lower limb fractures, and reports sample size considerations for an appropriately powered randomised trial. Methodology Ambulatory patients receiving physiotherapy following a lower limb fracture participated in this study (n = 18). All participants received usual care (individual physiotherapy). The first nine participants also used the Wii Fit under the supervision of their treating clinician as an adjunct to usual care. Adverse events, fracture malunion or exacerbation of symptoms were recorded. Pain, balance and patient-reported function were assessed at baseline and discharge from physiotherapy. Results No adverse events were attributed to either the usual care physiotherapy or Wii Fit intervention for any patient. Overall, 15 (83%) participants completed both assessments and interventions as scheduled. For 80% power in a clinical trial, the number of complete datasets required in each group to detect a small, medium or large effect of the Wii Fit at a post-intervention assessment was calculated at 175, 63 and 25, respectively. Conclusions The Nintendo Wii Fit was safe and feasible as an adjunct to ambulatory physiotherapy in this sample. When considering a likely small effect size and the 17% dropout rate observed in this study, 211 participants would be required in each clinical trial group. A larger effect size or multiple repeated measures design would require fewer participants.

A process mining-based investigation of adverse events in care processes

This paper proposes the Clinical Pathway Analysis Method (CPAM) approach that enables the extraction of valuable organisational and medical information on past clinical pathway executions from the event logs of healthcare information systems. The method deals with the complexity of real-world clinical pathways by introducing a perspective-based segmentation of the date-stamped event log. CPAM enables the clinical pathway analyst to effectively and efficiently acquire a profound insight into the clinical pathways. By comparing the specific medical conditions of patients with the factors used for characterising the different clinical pathway variants, the medical expert can identify the best therapeutic option. Process mining-based analytics enables the acquisition of valuable insights into clinical pathways, based on the complete audit traces of previous clinical pathway instances. Additionally, the methodology is suited to assess guideline compliance and analyse adverse events. Finally, the methodology provides support for eliciting tacit knowledge and providing treatment selection assistance.

Adjustment of apnea-hypopnea index with severity of obstruction events enhances detection of sleep apnea patients with the highest risk of severe health consequences

Introduction Presently, the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is estimated based on the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Unfortunately, AHI does not provide information on the severity of individual obstruction events. Previously, the severity of individual obstruction events has been suggested to be related to the outcome of the disease. In this study, we incorporate this information into AHI and test whether this novel approach would aid in discriminating patients with the highest risk. We hypothesize that the introduced adjusted AHI parameter provides a valuable supplement to AHI in the diagnosis of the severity of OSA. Methods This hypothesis was tested by means of retrospective follow-up (mean ± sd follow-up time 198.2 ± 24.7 months) of 1,068 men originally referred to night polygraphy due to suspected OSA. After exclusion of the 264 patients using CPAP, the remaining 804 patients were divided into normal (AHI < 5) and OSA (AHI ≥ 5) categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. For a more detailed analysis, the patients were divided into normal, mild, moderate, and severe OSA categories based on conventional AHI and adjusted AHI. Subsequently, the mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in these groups were determined. Results Use of the severity of individual obstruction events for adjustment of AHI led to a significant rearrangement of patients between severity categories. Due to this rearrangement, the number of deceased patients diagnosed to have OSA was increased when adjusted AHI was used as the diagnostic index. Importantly, risk ratios of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular morbidity were higher in moderate and severe OSA groups formed based on the adjusted AHI parameter than in those formed based on conventional AHI. Conclusions The adjusted AHI parameter was found to give valuable supplementary information to AHI and to potentially improve the recognition of OSA patients with the highest risk of mortality or cardiovascular morbidity.

A framework for generating realistic traffic for distributed denial-of-service attacks and flash events

An intrinsic challenge associated with evaluating proposed techniques for detecting Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks and distinguishing them from Flash Events (FEs) is the extreme scarcity of publicly available real-word traffic traces. Those available are either heavily anonymised or too old to accurately reflect the current trends in DDoS attacks and FEs. This paper proposes a traffic generation and testbed framework for synthetically generating different types of realistic DDoS attacks, FEs and other benign traffic traces, and monitoring their effects on the target. Using only modest hardware resources, the proposed framework, consisting of a customised software traffic generator, ‘Botloader’, is capable of generating a configurable mix of two-way traffic, for emulating either large-scale DDoS attacks, FEs or benign traffic traces that are experimentally reproducible. Botloader uses IP-aliasing, a well-known technique available on most computing platforms, to create thousands of interactive UDP/TCP endpoints on a single computer, each bound to a unique IP-address, to emulate large numbers of simultaneous attackers or benign clients.

The significance of controlled conditions in lentiviral vector titration and in the use of multiplicity of infection (MOI) for predicting gene transfer events

Background: Although lentiviral vectors have been widely used for in vitro and in vivo gene therapy researches, there have been few studies systematically examining various conditions that may affect the determination of the number of viable vector particles in a vector preparation and the use of Multiplicity of Infection (MOI) as a parameter for the prediction of gene transfer events. Methods: Lentiviral vectors encoding a marker gene were packaged and supernatants concentrated. The number of viable vector particles was determined by in vitro transduction and fluorescent microscopy and FACs analyses. Various factors that may affect the transduction process, such as vector inoculum volume, target cell number and type, vector decay, variable vector - target cell contact and adsorption periods were studied. MOI between 0-32 was assessed on commonly used cell lines as well as a new cell line. Results: We demonstrated that the resulting values of lentiviral vector titre varied with changes of conditions in the transduction process, including inoculum volume of the vector, the type and number of target cells, vector stability and the length of period of the vector adsorption to target cells. Vector inoculum and the number of target cells determine the frequencies of gene transfer event, although not proportionally. Vector exposure time to target cells also influenced transduction results. Varying these parameters resulted in a greater than 50-fold differences in the vector titre from the same vector stock. Commonly used cell lines in vector titration were less sensitive to lentiviral vector-mediated gene transfer than a new cell line, FRL 19. Within 0-32 of MOI used transducing four different cell lines, the higher the MOI applied, the higher the efficiency of gene transfer obtained. Conclusion: Several variables in the transduction process affected in in vitro vector titration and resulted in vastly different values from the same vector stock, thus complicating the use of MOI for predicting gene transfer events. Commonly used target cell lines underestimated vector titre. However, within a certain range of MOI, it is possible that, if strictly controlled conditions are observed in the vector titration process, including the use of a sensitive cell line, such as FRL 19 for vector titration, lentivector-mediated gene transfer events could be predicted. © 2004 Zhang et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Supersonic flutter of composite skin panels of repeated-sublaminate layup

In high-speed aerospace vehicles, supersonic flutter is a well-known phenomenon of dynamic instability to which external skin panels are prone. In theory, the instability stage is expressed by the 'flutter critical parameter' Q(crit), which is a function of the stiffness-, and dynamic pressure parameters. For a composite skin panel, Q(crit) can be maximised by lay-up optimisation. Repeated-sublaminate lay-up schemes possess good potential for economical lay-up optimisation because the corresponding effort is limited to a family of sublaminates of few layers only. When Q(crit) is obtained for all sublaminates of a family, and the sublaminates ranked accordingly, the resulting ranking reveals not only the optimum lay-up, but also the near-optimum lay-ups, which are useful design alternatives, and the inferior lay-ups which should be avoided. In this paper, we examine sublaminate-ranking characteristics for a composite panel prone to supersonic flutter. In particular, we consider a simple supported midplane-symmetrical rectangular panel of typical aspect ratio alpha and flow angle psi, and for four-layered sublaminates, obtain the Q(crit)-based rankings for a wide range of the number of repeats, r. From the rankings, we find that an optimum lay-up can exist for which the outermost layer is oriented wide of, rather than along, the flow. Furthermore, for many lay-ups other than the optimum and the inferior, we see that as r increases, Q(crit) undergoes significant change in the course of converging. To reconcile these findings, eigenvalue-coalescence characteristics are discussed in detail for specific cases.

A framing analysis on Nepalese media portrayal of disaster events using news frames and PPRR cycle

This study seeks to understand the prevailing status of Nepalese media portrayal of natural disasters and develop a disaster management framework to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of news production through the continuum of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) phases of disaster management. The study is currently under progress. It is being undertaken in three phases. In phase-1, a qualitative content analysis is conducted. The news contents are categorized in frames as proposed in the 'Framing theory' and pre-defined frames. However, researcher has looked at the theories of the Press, linking to social responsibility theory as it is regarded as the major obligation of the media towards the society. Thereafter, the contents are categorized as per PPRR cycle. In Phase-2, based on the findings of content analysis, 12 in-depth interviews with journalists, disaster managers and community leaders are conducted. In phase-3, based on the findings of content analysis and in-depth interviews, a framework for effective media management of disaster are developed using thematic analysis. As the study is currently under progress hence, findings from the pilot study are elucidated. The response phase of disasters is most commonly reported in Nepal. There is relatively low coverage of preparedness and prevention. Furthermore, the responsibility frame in the news is most prevalent following human interest. Economic consequences and conflict frames are also used while reporting and vulnerability assessment has been used as an additional frame. The outcomes of this study are multifaceted: At the micro-level people will be benefited as it will enable a reduction in the loss of human lives and property through effective dissemination of information in news and other mode of media. They will be ‘well prepared for', 'able to prevent', 'respond to' and 'recover from' any natural disasters. At the meso level the media industry will be benefited and have their own 'disaster management model of news production' as an effective disaster reporting tool which will improve in media's editorial judgment and priority. At the macro-level it will assist government and other agencies to develop appropriate policies and strategies for better management of natural disasters.