The economics of climate change

This paper focuses on several key economic issues relevant to climate change. Given the fact that changes in climate are projections using the best available data, it examines the economic principles of uncertainty and the precautionary approach, and then continues to address the key drivers of climate change. Climate change is expected to result in negative impacts and, in this regard, the consequences of anticipated rising temperatures and sea levels as well as changes in precipitation that may result in flooding and/or drought are addressed. However, the situation is not all negative and, as such, the opportunities that are likely to arise through adaptation and mitigation are discussed especially with respect to the Caribbean. In this regard and recognizing that it would be useful to Caribbean policymakers to utilize these opportunities and to address the negative impacts, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), through its subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, is spearheading a review of the economics of climate change in the Caribbean with a view to providing quantitative information to stakeholders in dealing with climate change. The paper makes recommendations for the Caribbean to address climate change at the national level. These include macroplanning; promotion of energy efficiency; creation of incentives to obtain support for implementation of alternative energy technologies; maintaining the will among stakeholders on a sustained basis for addressing climate change; and the conduct of relevant research into varieties of plants and animals that could adapt to changing climatic conditions. Finally, it must be recognized that to successfully combat climate change, the threats and opportunities must be properly assessed as part of an ongoing region-wide system of risk management, which should not be incidental, but integral, to national and regional planning and forecasting for the future.

Agricultural transformation and Gender considerations in Caribbean Economics

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the gender and social disparities existing in the agricultural and rural sector in Caribbean economies. In this context, agricultural transformation as occasioned by the dismantling of preferential trading arrangements is analysed to identify the most relevant gender discriminatory measures in the current agricultural development policy and programmes. The analysis seeks to provide the basis for enhancing understanding among policy makers, planners and rural development practitioners of the gender and social dimension involved in the formulation of agricultural policy and more specifically in relation to the new policy and institutional arrangements for agriculture in the region. The paper also provides insights regarding what changes should take place to create an enabling environment for more gender-based approaches to policy-making and strategic planning in agricultural development and trade in the Caribbean. The methodology centred on the review of secondary sources that provide references on the new challenges, opportunities and constraints faced by the agricultural sector, in particular small farmers, in the context of globalization and agriculture transformation. Much of the literature for this assignment was obtained from FAO Headquarters in Rome and the FAO Subregional Office in Barbados, as well as the OECS Secretariat in St. Lucia. In the process of the review exercise, due consideration was given to changes in agricultural production patterns, resources allocation and rural livelihoods. Efforts to examine the most relevant policy measures and mechanisms in-place in support to agricultural development in the region were constrained, in the main, by the absence of gender disaggregated data. Documentation as regards the situation of women and men in relation to agricultural labour, rural income and food security situation in regions were limited. The use of the internet served to bridge the communication gap between countries and institutions. The preliminary draft of the paper was presented and discussed at the FAO/ECLAC/UNIFEM regional workshop on mainstreaming gender analysis in agriculture and trade policies, for Caribbean countries, in November 2003. The second draft of the paper was informed by comments from the workshop and additional information acquired through field visits to Barbados, St. Kitts and St. Vincent in March 2004. The three day visits to each of these three countries entailed a review/appreciation of the resource, constraints and institutional capacities for gender mainstreaming within the agricultural sector at the national level. This included visits to some of the major agricultural projects and interviews with farmers (where feasible) in respect of their perspective of the current situation of the agricultural sector and the viability of their farm enterprises. As well, meetings were held with relevant/available officials within the respective ministries of agriculture to discern the gender consideration as regards agricultural policy and planning at the country level. The internet was invaluable to the task of sourcing supplementary information to satisfy the aim of the paper; in respect of the identification of concrete policy measures and actions to formulate and develop more gender/social-responsive agricultural development policies. The final revision, though thwart with resource and communication constraints, was ultimately completed in compliance with the structure and approach proposed in the terms of references for this FAO/ECLAC assignment.

The Economics of Climate Change in Central America: Summary 2012

This report was published with the goal of discussing, disseminating and using the results of this initiative in the formulation of national and regional strategies and have been presented at national and regional events with civil servants, representatives of non-governmental organizations, trade unions, the private sector, universities and research centers. The results have served as inputs in the training of national committees on climate change and negotiating teams, as well as in the preparation of the Regional Climate Change Strategy, several international financing projects and various national policies. The results have been presented in coordination with the Ministries of Environment at the last three Conferences of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

SOCIAL POLICY AS REGIONAL POLICY: MARKET AND NONMARKET FACTORS DETERMINING REGIONAL INEQUALITY

We decompose the recent changes in regional inequality in Brazil into its components, highlighting the role of spatially blind social programs. We aggregate personal income micro data to the state level, differentiating nine income sources, and assess the role of these components in the observed changes in regional inequality indicators. The main results indicate that the largest part of the recent reduction in regional inequality is related to the dynamics of the market-related labor income, with manufacturing and services favoring deconcentration. Labor income in agriculture, retirement and pensions, and property rents and other sources favored concentration. The social programs Bolsa Familia and Beneficios de Prestacao Continuada are responsible for more than 24 percent of the reduction in inequality, although they account for less than 1.7 percent of the disposable household income. Such positive impact on regional concentration is impressive, since the goals of the programs are clearly nonspatial.

Essays in Health Economics

In the first chapter we develop a theoretical model investigating food consumption and body weight with a novel assumption regarding human caloric expenditure (i.e. metabolism), in order to investigate why individuals can be rationally trapped in an excessive weight equilibrium and why they struggle to lose weight even when offered incentives for weight-loss. This assumption allows the theoretical model to have multiple equilibria and to provide an explanation for why losing weight is so difficult even in the presence of incentives, without relying on rational addiction, time-inconsistency preferences or bounded rationality. In addition to this result we are able to characterize under which circumstances a temporary incentive can create a persistent weight loss. In the second chapter we investigate the possible contributions that social norms and peer effects had on the spread of obesity. In recent literature peer effects and social norms have been characterized as important pathways for the biological and behavioral spread of body weight, along with decreased food prices and physical activity. We add to this literature by proposing a novel concept of social norm related to what we define as social distortion in weight perception. The theoretical model shows that, in equilibrium, the effect of an increase in peers' weight on i's weight is unrelated to health concerns while it is mainly associated with social concerns. Using regional data from England we prove that such social component is significant in influencing individual weight. In the last chapter we investigate the relationship between body weight and employment probability. Using a semi-parametric regression we show that men and women employment probability do not follow a linear relationship with body mass index (BMI) but rather an inverted U-shaped one, peaking at a BMI way over the clinical threshold for overweight.

A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Global Change and Sustainable Development: A Synthesis of Regional Experiences from Research Partnerships

Humankind today is challenged by numerous threats brought about by the speed and scope of global change dynamics. A concerted and informed approach to solutions is needed to face the severity and magnitude of current development problems. Generating shared knowledge is a key to addressing global challenges. This requires developing the ability to cross multiple borders wherever radically different understandings of issues such as health and environmental sanitation, governance and conflict, livelihood options and globalisation, and natural resources and development exist. Global Change and Sustainable Development presents 36 peer-reviewed articles written by interdisciplinary teams of authors who reflected on results of development-oriented research conducted from 2001 to 2008. Scientific activities were – and continue to be – carried out in partnerships involving people and institutions in the global North, South and East, guided by principles of sustainability. The articles seek to inform solutions for mitigating, or adapting to, the negative impacts of global dynamics in the social, political, ecological, institutional and economic spheres.

Sustainable regional development: Reconciling global and local dynamics and stakes in the Swiss Alps

This article explores how global and local dynamics and stakes can be brought together when trying to combine conservation and regional development. For this purpose we analyse a series of studies carried out in the area of the Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch World Heritage Site (WHS). The approaches used in these studies to analyse the diversity and development of the region included data collection and evaluation of indicators such as population development, number of working places, occupation rates in various economic sectors and commuter balance, as well as interviews with key informants and assessment of existing planning tools. The major challenge of the newly declared World Heritage Region is that it is neither a political or administrative nor a cultural unit but constitutes a completely new type of space that breaks up and crosses traditional boundaries. The studies revealed an economic tertiarisation process and migration of the population from remote areas to regional centres. Tourism was identified as the key economic sector in the region. Regarding regional sustainability, the studies identified a need for quality dialogue and negotiation of interests and stakes. It was shown that in dealing with sustainability at the local level, many key issues cannot be resolved on the ground, as they depend on regional or national decisions, e.g. the conditions for tourism promotion in the region or economic validation of agricultural activity. We conclude from these findings that national or even international factors do not provide a basis for location-specific solutions, as they are often too general, and that the global label does not ensure sustainability in a designated WHS region; this depends entirely on local and regional dynamics.

Market Prices and Food Aid Local and Regional Procurement and Distribution: A Multi-Country Analysis

To date, no research has rigorously addressed the concern that local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid could affect food prices and food price volatility in food aid source and recipient countries. We assemble spatially and temporally disaggregated data and estimate the relationship between food prices and their volatility and local food aid procurement and distribution across seven countries for several commodities. In most cases, LRP activities have no statistically significant relationship with either local price levels or food price volatility. The few exceptions underscore the importance of market monitoring. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Timeliness and Cost-Effectiveness of the Local and Regional Procurement of Food Aid

Local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid is often claimed to lead to quicker and more cost-effective response. We generate timeliness and cost-effectiveness estimates by comparing US-funded LRP activities in nine countries against in-kind, transoceanic food aid shipments from the US to the same countries during the same timeframe. Procuring food locally or distributing cash or vouchers results in a time savings of nearly 14 weeks, a 62 percent gain. Cost-effectiveness varies significantly by commodity type. Procuring grains locally saved over 50 percent, on average, while local procurement of processed commodities was not always cost-effective. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tradeoffs or Synergies? Assessing Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement through Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Guatemala

We compare the impacts across a range of criteria of local and regional procurement (LRP) relative to transoceanic shipment of food aid in Burkina Faso and Guatemala. We find that neither instrument dominates the other across all criteria in either country, although LRP commonly performs at least as well as transoceanic shipment with respect to timeliness, cost, market price impacts, satisfying recipients' preferences, food quality and safety, and in benefiting smallholder suppliers. LRP is plainly a valuable food assistance tool, but its advantages and disadvantages must be carefully weighed, compared, and prioritized depending on the context and program objectives. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A STUDY ON REGIONAL CIRCULAR ECONOMY SYSTEM AND ITS CONSTRUCTION, OPERATION AND SUGGESTION FOR SHANGHAI

The characteristics of the traditional linear economic model are high consumption, high emission and low efficiency. Economic development is still largely at the expense of the environment and requires a natural resource investment. This can realize rapid economic development but resource depletion and environmental pollution become increasingly serious. In the 1990's a new economic model, circular economics, began to enter our vision. The circular economy maximizes production and minimizes the impact of economic activities on the ecological environment through organizing the activities through the closed-loop feedback cycle of "resources - production - renewable resource". Circular economy is a better way to solve the contradictions between the economic development and resource shortages. Developing circular economy has become the major strategic initiatives to achieving sustainable development in countries all over the world. The evaluation of the development of circular economics is a necessary step for regional circular economy development. Having a quantitative evaluation of circular economy can better monitor and reveal the contradictions and problems in the process of the development of recycling economy. This thesis will: 1) Create an evaluation model framework and new types of industries and 2) Make an evaluation of the Shanghai circular economy currently to analyze the situation of Shanghai in the development of circular economy. I will then propose suggestions about the structure and development of Shanghai circular economy.