La dimensión de la subjetividad en la formación del valor inmobiliario : aplicación del método de análisis de ecuaciones estructurales al mercado residencial de Lisboa

The discretionality and the appraisers’ subjectivity that characterize traditional real estate valuation are still allowed to take part in the formation of the asset price even when respecting international standards (EVS, IVS) or Appraisal Institution´s regulations (TEGOVA, RICS, etc.). The application of econometric and statistical methods to real estate valuation aims at the elimination of subjectivity on the appraisal process. But the unanswered question underneath this subject is the following: How important is the subjective component on real estate appraisal value formation? On this study Structural Equation Models (SEM) are used to determine the importance of the objective and subjective components on real estate valuation value formation as well as the weight of economic factors and the current economic context on real estate appraisal for mortgage purposes price formation. There were used two latent variables, Objective Component and Subjective Component, witch aggregate objective observed variables and subjective observed and unobserved variables, respectively. Factorial Exploratory Analysis is the statistical technique used in order to link the observed variables extracted from the valuation appraisal reports to the latent constructs derived from the theoretical model. SEM models were used to refine the model, eliminate non‐significant variables and to determine the weight of Objective and Subjective latent variables. These techniques were applied to a sample of over 11.000 real estate assets appraisal reports throughout the time period between November of 2006 and April of 2012. The real assets used on this study are located on Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area – “Grande Lisboa” –, Portugal. From this study, we conclude that Subjective Component has a considerable weight on real estate appraisal value formation and that the external factor Economic Situation has a very small impact on real estate appraisal value formation.

Desarrollo de un modelo de predimensionado de costes de construcción en el proyecto arquitectónico

El objetivo de la presente investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo de cálculo rápido, eficiente y preciso, para la estimación de los costes finales de construcción, en las fases preliminares del proyecto arquitectónico. Se trata de una herramienta a utilizar durante el proceso de elaboración de estudios previos, anteproyecto y proyecto básico, no siendo por tanto preciso para calcular el “predimensionado de costes” disponer de la total definición grafica y literal del proyecto. Se parte de la hipótesis de que en la aplicación práctica del modelo no se producirán desviaciones superiores al 10 % sobre el coste final de la obra proyectada. Para ello se formulan en el modelo de predimensionado cinco niveles de estimación de costes, de menor a mayor definición conceptual y gráfica del proyecto arquitectónico. Los cinco niveles de cálculo son: dos que toman como referencia los valores “exógenos” de venta de las viviendas (promoción inicial y promoción básica) y tres basados en cálculos de costes “endógenos” de la obra proyectada (estudios previos, anteproyecto y proyecto básico). El primer nivel de estimación de carácter “exógeno” (nivel .1), se calcula en base a la valoración de mercado de la promoción inmobiliaria y a su porcentaje de repercusión de suelo sobre el valor de venta de las viviendas. El quinto nivel de valoración, también de carácter “exógeno” (nivel .5), se calcula a partir del contraste entre el valor externo básico de mercado, los costes de construcción y los gastos de promoción estimados de la obra proyectada. Este contraste entre la “repercusión del coste de construcción” y el valor de mercado, supone una innovación respecto a los modelos de predimensionado de costes existentes, como proceso metodológico de verificación y validación extrínseca, de la precisión y validez de las estimaciones resultantes de la aplicación práctica del modelo, que se denomina Pcr.5n (Predimensionado costes de referencia con .5niveles de cálculo según fase de definición proyectual / ideación arquitectónica). Los otros tres niveles de predimensionado de costes de construcción “endógenos”, se estiman mediante cálculos analíticos internos por unidades de obra y cálculos sintéticos por sistemas constructivos y espacios funcionales, lo que se lleva a cabo en las etapas iniciales del proyecto correspondientes a estudios previos (nivel .2), anteproyecto (nivel .3) y proyecto básico (nivel .4). Estos cálculos teóricos internos son finalmente evaluados y validados mediante la aplicación práctica del modelo en obras de edificación residencial, de las que se conocen sus costes reales de liquidación final de obra. Según va evolucionando y se incrementa el nivel de definición y desarrollo del proyecto, desde los estudios previos hasta el proyecto básico, el cálculo se va perfeccionando en su nivel de eficiencia y precisión de la estimación, según la metodología aplicada: [aproximaciones sucesivas en intervalos finitos], siendo la hipótesis básica como anteriormente se ha avanzado, lograr una desviación máxima de una décima parte en el cálculo estimativo del predimensionado del coste real de obra. El cálculo del coste de ejecución material de la obra, se desarrolla en base a parámetros cúbicos funcionales “tridimensionales” del espacio proyectado y parámetros métricos constructivos “bidimensionales” de la envolvente exterior de cubierta/fachada y de la huella del edificio sobre el terreno. Los costes funcionales y constructivos se ponderan en cada fase del proceso de cálculo con sus parámetros “temáticos/específicos” de gestión (Pg), proyecto (Pp) y ejecución (Pe) de la concreta obra presupuestada, para finalmente estimar el coste de construcción por contrata, como resultado de incrementar al coste de ejecución material el porcentaje correspondiente al parámetro temático/especifico de la obra proyectada. El modelo de predimensionado de costes de construcción Pcr.5n, será una herramienta de gran interés y utilidad en el ámbito profesional, para la estimación del coste correspondiente al Proyecto Básico previsto en el marco técnico y legal de aplicación. Según el Anejo I del Código Técnico de la Edificación (CTE), es de obligado cumplimiento que el proyecto básico contenga una “Valoración aproximada de la ejecución material de la obra proyectada por capítulos”, es decir , que el Proyecto Básico ha de contener al menos un “presupuesto aproximado”, por capítulos, oficios ó tecnologías. El referido cálculo aproximado del presupuesto en el Proyecto Básico, necesariamente se ha de realizar mediante la técnica del predimensionado de costes, dado que en esta fase del proyecto arquitectónico aún no se dispone de cálculos de estructura, planos de acondicionamiento e instalaciones, ni de la resolución constructiva de la envolvente, por cuanto no se han desarrollado las especificaciones propias del posterior proyecto de ejecución. Esta estimación aproximada del coste de la obra, es sencilla de calcular mediante la aplicación práctica del modelo desarrollado, y ello tanto para estudiantes como para profesionales del sector de la construcción. Como se contiene y justifica en el presente trabajo, la aplicación práctica del modelo para el cálculo de costes en las fases preliminares del proyecto, es rápida y certera, siendo de sencilla aplicación tanto en vivienda unifamiliar (aisladas y pareadas), como en viviendas colectivas (bloques y manzanas). También, el modelo es de aplicación en el ámbito de la valoración inmobiliaria, tasaciones, análisis de viabilidad económica de promociones inmobiliarias, estimación de costes de obras terminadas y en general, cuando no se dispone del proyecto de ejecución y sea preciso calcular los costes de construcción de las obras proyectadas. Además, el modelo puede ser de aplicación para el chequeo de presupuestos calculados por el método analítico tradicional (estado de mediciones pormenorizadas por sus precios unitarios y costes descompuestos), tanto en obras de iniciativa privada como en obras promovidas por las Administraciones Públicas. Por último, como líneas abiertas a futuras investigaciones, el modelo de “predimensionado costes de referencia 5 niveles de cálculo”, se podría adaptar y aplicar para otros usos y tipologías diferentes a la residencial, como edificios de equipamientos y dotaciones públicas, valoración de edificios históricos, obras de urbanización interior y exterior de parcela, proyectos de parques y jardines, etc….. Estas lineas de investigación suponen trabajos paralelos al aquí desarrollado, y que a modo de avance parcial se recogen en las comunicaciones presentadas en los Congresos internacionales Scieconf/Junio 2013, Rics‐Cobra/Septiembre 2013 y en el IV Congreso nacional de patología en la edificación‐Ucam/Abril 2014. ABSTRACT The aim of this research is to develop a fast, efficient and accurate calculation model to estimate the final costs of construction, during the preliminary stages of the architectural project. It is a tool to be used during the preliminary study process, drafting and basic project. It is not therefore necessary to have the exact, graphic definition of the project in order to be able to calculate the cost‐scaling. It is assumed that no deviation 10% higher than the final cost of the projected work will occur during the implementation. To that purpose five levels of cost estimation are formulated in the scaling model, from a lower to a higher conceptual and graphic definition of the architectural project. The five calculation levels are: two that take as point of reference the ”exogenous” values of house sales (initial development and basic development), and three based on calculation of endogenous costs (preliminary study, drafting and basic project). The first ”exogenous” estimation level (level.1) is calculated over the market valuation of real estate development and the proportion the cost of land has over the value of the houses. The fifth level of valuation, also an ”exogenous” one (level.5) is calculated from the contrast between the basic external market value, the construction costs, and the estimated development costs of the projected work. This contrast between the ”repercussions of construction costs” and the market value is an innovation regarding the existing cost‐scaling models, as a methodological process of extrinsic verification and validation, of the accuracy and validity of the estimations obtained from the implementation of the model, which is called Pcr.5n (reference cost‐scaling with .5calculation levels according to the stage of project definition/ architectural conceptualization) The other three levels of “endogenous” construction cost‐scaling are estimated from internal analytical calculations by project units and synthetic calculations by construction systems and functional spaces. This is performed during the initial stages of the project corresponding to preliminary study process (level.2), drafting (level.3) and basic project (level.4). These theoretical internal calculations are finally evaluated and validated via implementation of the model in residential buildings, whose real costs on final payment of the works are known. As the level of definition and development of the project evolves, from preliminary study to basic project, the calculation improves in its level of efficiency and estimation accuracy, following the applied methodology: [successive approximations at finite intervals]. The basic hypothesis as above has been made, achieving a maximum deviation of one tenth, in the estimated calculation of the true cost of predimensioning work. The cost calculation for material execution of the works is developed from functional “three‐dimensional” cubic parameters for the planned space and constructive “two dimensional” metric parameters for the surface that envelopes around the facade and the building’s footprint on the plot. The functional and building costs are analyzed at every stage of the process of calculation with “thematic/specific” parameters of management (Pg), project (Pp) and execution (Pe) of the estimated work in question, and finally the cost of contractual construction is estimated, as a consequence of increasing the cost of material execution with the percentage pertaining to the thematic/specific parameter of the projected work. The construction cost‐scaling Pcr.5n model will be a useful tool of great interest in the professional field to estimate the cost of the Basic Project as prescribed in the technical and legal framework of application. According to the appendix of the Technical Building Code (CTE), it is compulsory that the basic project contains an “approximate valuation of the material execution of the work, projected by chapters”, that is, that the basic project must contain at least an “approximate estimate” by chapter, trade or technology. This approximate estimate in the Basic Project is to be performed through the cost‐scaling technique, given that structural calculations, reconditioning plans and definitive contruction details of the envelope are still not available at this stage of the architectural project, insofar as specifications pertaining to the later project have not yet been developed. This approximate estimate of the cost of the works is easy to calculate through the implementation of the given model, both for students and professionals of the building sector. As explained and justified in this work, the implementation of the model for cost‐scaling during the preliminary stage is fast and accurate, as well as easy to apply both in single‐family houses (detached and semi‐detached) and collective housing (blocks). The model can also be applied in the field of the real‐estate valuation, official appraisal, analysis of the economic viability of real estate developments, estimate of the cost of finished projects and, generally, when an implementation project is not available and it is necessary to calculate the building costs of the projected works. The model can also be applied to check estimates calculated by the traditional analytical method (state of measurements broken down into price per unit cost details), both in private works and those promoted by Public Authorities. Finally, as potential lines for future research, the “five levels of calculation cost‐scaling model”, could be adapted and applied to purposes and typologies other than the residential one, such as service buildings and public facilities, valuation of historical buildings, interior and exterior development works, park and garden planning, etc… These lines of investigation are parallel to this one and, by way of a preview, can be found in the dissertations given in the International Congresses Scieconf/June 2013, Rics‐Cobra/September 2013 and in the IV Congress on building pathology ‐Ucam/April 2014.

Notes on cases in Falmouth, 1786

Includes notes on various cases heard during the July term 1786.

Translation of Littleton's tenures

Contains an English translation of Littleton's Tenures ss. 1-444. Apparently owned later by an American who made several entries citing quotes from Benjamin Franklin and others.

Lowell, Massachusetts, 1850 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan of the city of Lowell, Massachusetts, from actual surveys by Sidney & Neff. It was published by S. Moody in 1850. Scale [ca. 1:3,450]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Massachusetts State Plane Coordinate System, Mainland Zone (in Feet) (Fipszone 2001) coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, canals, drainage, public buildings, schools, churches, parks, industry locations (e.g. mills, factories, etc.), private buildings with names of property owners, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also illustrations of local buildings in margins.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Denver, Colorado, 1904 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the city of Denver : showing the lines of the Denver City Tramway Co. It was published by Smith-Brooks Co., engravers and printers in 1904. Scale [ca. 1:21,000]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the HARN State Plane Colorado Central Zone NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 0502) coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This is a partial cadastral map showing features such as roads, railroads, existing and proposed tramway lines, property lots with numbers and names of selected property owners, drainage, selected buildings, parks, and more.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom, 1825 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan of Edinburgh and its environs, from a survey by James Knox ; engd. by R. Scott. It was published by John Fairbairn 13, Waterloo Place, Manners & Miller, ... and John Anderson, Junr. in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:6,000]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'British National Grid' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings, selected names of property owners, parks, ground cover, and more. Relief shown by hachures and spot heights. Includes population statistics from 1821 and note.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Rhode Island, 1832 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: A topographical map of the state of Rhode Island and Providence plantations, surveyed trigonometrically and in detail by James Stevens, topographer and civil engineer, Newport, R.I. 1831. It was published by James Stevens in 1832. Scale [ca. 1: 95,040]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Rhode Island NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 3800). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, public buildings, schools, hotels, banks, industry locations (e.g. mills, factories, mines, etc.), selected private buildings with names of property owners, town and county boundaries, canals, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Depths shown by soundings. Includes Census statistics and "Remarks".This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Bristol, England, 1750 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: A survey of the city and suburbs of Bristol, survey'd by John Rocque, land surveyor at Charing Cross = Plan de la ville et faubourgs de Bristol, levé par Jean Rocque. It was published by John Rocque, published according to Act of Parliament in 1750. Scale [ca. 1:20,200]. Covers Bristol, England. Map in French and English.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'British National Grid' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, selected buildings with names of landowners, industries, churches, cemeteries, parks, docks, wharves, ground cover, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also 10 views of local points-of-interest.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Providence County, Rhode Island, 1851 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of Providence County, Rhode Island, with some of the adjacent towns, from original surveys by H. F. Walling. It was published by G. C. Brown in 1851. Scale [ca. 1:43,000]. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Rhode Island NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 3800) coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, drainage, public buildings, schools, churches, industry locations (e.g. mills, factories, mines, etc.), private buildings with names of property owners, town boundaries, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also inset of the city of Providence and decorative border with 18 vignettes of notable buildings in the county.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Providence, Rhode Island, 1857 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the city of Providence, Rhode Island, from surveys under the direction of H.F. Walling ; engraved, printed, compiled & mounted at H.F. Walling's Map Establishment, no. 90 Fulton St., New York. It was published by F.A. Baker in 1857. Scale [1:4,200]. Covers a portion of East Providence, Rhode Island.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Rhode Island NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 3800) coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, railroad stations, drainage, public buildings, schools, churches, cemeteries, industry locations (e.g. mills, factories, etc.), docks and wharves, private buildings with selected names of property owners, town district boundaries, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also illustrations of buildings in upper and lower margins: New Custom House, Post Office and U.S. court rooms -- Brown University -- Providence Institution for Savings -- Butler Hospital for the Insane -- First Baptist Meeting House -- Grace Church -- General railroad passenger station -- Central Congregational Church -- Providence Athenaeum -- Central Baptist Church.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Map of the town of Petersham, Worcester County, Massachusetts

from actual survey by E .M. Woodford.

Boston, Massachusetts, 1797 (Image 4 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: An accurate plan of the town of Boston and its vicinity : exhibiting a ground plan of all the streets, lanes, alleys, wharves, and public buildings in Boston, with the names and description thereof, likewise all the flats and channels between Boston and Charlestown, Cambridge, Roxbury & Dorchester with the two bridges and causeway, and the boundary lines beween Boston and the above mentioned towns from ... by Osgood Carleton ; I. Norman, sc. It was published and sold by Osgood Carleton in 1797. Scale [ca. 1:4,170]. This layer is image 4 of 4 total images, representing the southeast portion of the four sheet source map. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Massachusetts State Plane Coordinate System, Mainland Zone (in Feet) (Fipszone 2001). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, selected public buildings, city ward boundaries, wharves, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps of Massachusetts from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates (1755-1922), scales, and purposes. The digitized selection includes maps of: the state, Massachusetts counties, town surveys, coastal features, real property, parks, cemeteries, railroads, roads, public works projects, etc.

Boston, Massachusetts, 1797 (Image 3 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: An accurate plan of the town of Boston and its vicinity : exhibiting a ground plan of all the streets, lanes, alleys, wharves, and public buildings in Boston, with the names and description thereof, likewise all the flats and channels between Boston and Charlestown, Cambridge, Roxbury & Dorchester with the two bridges and causeway, and the boundary lines beween Boston and the above mentioned towns from ... by Osgood Carleton ; I. Norman, sc. It was published and sold by Osgood Carleton in 1797. Scale [ca. 1:4,170]. This layer is image 3 of 4 total images, representing the southwest portion of the four sheet source map. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Massachusetts State Plane Coordinate System, Mainland Zone (in Feet) (Fipszone 2001). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, selected public buildings, city ward boundaries, wharves, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps of Massachusetts from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates (1755-1922), scales, and purposes. The digitized selection includes maps of: the state, Massachusetts counties, town surveys, coastal features, real property, parks, cemeteries, railroads, roads, public works projects, etc.

Boston, Massachusetts, 1797 (Image 1 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: An accurate plan of the town of Boston and its vicinity : exhibiting a ground plan of all the streets, lanes, alleys, wharves, and public buildings in Boston, with the names and description thereof, likewise all the flats and channels between Boston and Charlestown, Cambridge, Roxbury & Dorchester with the two bridges and causeway, and the boundary lines beween Boston and the above mentioned towns from ... by Osgood Carleton ; I. Norman, sc. It was published and sold by Osgood Carleton in 1797. Scale [ca. 1:4,170]. This layer is image 1 of 4 total images, representing the northwest portion of the four sheet source map. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Massachusetts State Plane Coordinate System, Mainland Zone (in Feet) (Fipszone 2001). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, selected public buildings, city ward boundaries, wharves, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps of Massachusetts from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates (1755-1922), scales, and purposes. The digitized selection includes maps of: the state, Massachusetts counties, town surveys, coastal features, real property, parks, cemeteries, railroads, roads, public works projects, etc.