Essays on oil price fluctuations and macroeconomic activity

Dans cette thèse, je me suis intéressé aux effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur l'activité macroéconomique selon la cause sous-jacente ces fluctuations. Les modèles économiques utilisés dans cette thèse sont principalement les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (de l'anglais Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) et les modèles Vecteurs Autorégressifs, VAR. Plusieurs études ont examiné les effets des fluctuations du prix de pétrole sur les principaux variables macroéconomiques, mais très peu d'entre elles ont fait spécifiquement le lien entre les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole et la l'origine de ces fluctuations. Pourtant, il est largement admis dans les études plus récentes que les augmentations du prix du pétrole peuvent avoir des effets très différents en fonction de la cause sous-jacente de cette augmentation. Ma thèse, structurée en trois chapitres, porte une attention particulière aux sources de fluctuations du prix de pétrole et leurs impacts sur l'activité macroéconomique en général, et en particulier sur l'économie du Canada. Le premier chapitre examine comment les chocs d'offre de pétrole, de demande agrégée, et de demande de précaution de pétrole affectent l'économie du Canada, dans un Modèle d'équilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique estimé. L'estimation est réalisée par la méthode Bayésienne, en utilisant des données trimestrielles canadiennes sur la période 1983Q1 à 2010Q4. Les résultats montrent que les effets dynamiques des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les principaux agrégats macro-économiques canadiens varient en fonction de leurs sources. En particulier, une augmentation de 10% du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs positifs sur la demande globale étrangère a un effet positif significatif de l'ordre de 0,4% sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact et l'effet reste positif sur tous les horizons. En revanche, une augmentation du prix réel du pétrole causée par des chocs négatifs sur l'offre de pétrole ou par des chocs positifs de la demande de pétrole de précaution a un effet négligeable sur le PIB réel du Canada au moment de l'impact, mais provoque une baisse légèrement significative après l'impact. En outre, parmi les chocs pétroliers identifiés, les chocs sur la demande globale étrangère ont été relativement plus important pour expliquer la fluctuation des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques du Canada au cours de la période d'estimation. Le deuxième chapitre utilise un modèle Structurel VAR en Panel pour examiner les liens entre les chocs de demande et d'offre de pétrole et les ajustements de la demande de travail et des salaires dans les industries manufacturières au Canada. Le modèle est estimé sur des données annuelles désagrégées au niveau industriel sur la période de 1975 à 2008. Les principaux résultats suggèrent qu'un choc positif de demande globale a un effet positif sur la demande de travail et les salaires, à court terme et à long terme. Un choc négatif sur l'offre de pétrole a un effet négatif relativement faible au moment de l'impact, mais l'effet devient positif après la première année. En revanche, un choc positif sur la demande précaution de pétrole a un impact négatif à tous les horizons. Les estimations industrie-par-industrie confirment les précédents résultats en panel. En outre, le papier examine comment les effets des différents chocs pétroliers sur la demande travail et les salaires varient en fonction du degré d'exposition commerciale et de l'intensité en énergie dans la production. Il ressort que les industries fortement exposées au commerce international et les industries fortement intensives en énergie sont plus vulnérables aux fluctuations du prix du pétrole causées par des chocs d'offre de pétrole ou des chocs de demande globale. Le dernier chapitre examine les implications en terme de bien-être social de l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole sur le marché mondial à l'aide d'un modèle DSGE de trois pays dont deux pays importateurs de pétrole et un pays exportateur de pétrole. Les gains de bien-être sont mesurés par la variation compensatoire de la consommation sous deux règles de politique monétaire. Les principaux résultats montrent que l'introduction des inventaires en pétrole a des effets négatifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans chacun des deux pays importateurs de pétrole, alors qu'il a des effets positifs sur le bien-être des consommateurs dans le pays exportateur de pétrole, quelle que soit la règle de politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, l'inclusion de la dépréciation du taux de change dans les règles de politique monétaire permet de réduire les coûts sociaux pour les pays importateurs de pétrole. Enfin, l'ampleur des effets de bien-être dépend du niveau d'inventaire en pétrole à l'état stationnaire et est principalement expliquée par les chocs sur les inventaires en pétrole.

Praxisrelevante Auswirkungen des Vorschlages für eine EU-Verordnung KOM/2000/7/final, 2000/0212(COD) des europäischen Parlaments und des Rates von der Kommission der Europäischen Gemeinschaften auf die Verkehrsplanung des öffentlichen Personennahverkehrs

Die Arbeit behandelt den Vorschlag für eine EU-Verordnung KOM/2000/7/final, 2000/0212(COD) des europäischen Parlaments und des Rates von der Kommission der Europäischen Gemeinschaften als Grundlage einer Marktöffnungsverordnung und welche Veränderungen sich dadurch in Deutschland einstellen werden. Ausschreibungen von Verkehrsleistungen werden zunehmen. Die Ausschreibungsarten werden sich in ländlichen Regionen von denen in Verkehrszentren unterscheiden. In der Region werden sich Bedarfslösungen stärker durchsetzen. Kürzungen von Verkehrsleistungen werden hier stärker ausfallen als in den Zentren und damit zu einem kleineren Leistungsvolumen führen. Aufgrund des geringen Leistungsumfangs gibt es weniger Interessenten. Bei Standardausschreibungen werden deshalb auch häufig die Varianten der beschränkten oder die freihändige Vergabe gewählt. Funktionale Ausschreibungen haben nur eine untergeordnete Bedeutung. In den Verkehrszentren sind die Lose größer und damit für viele Anbieter interessant. Die Verkehrszusatzleistungen sind zudem komplexer. Standardausschreibungen in öffentlicher Vergabeart werden sich hier vermutlich als Norm durchsetzen. Die VOL/A wird sicherlich ihre Bedeutung und ihren dafür notwendigen Regelungsumfang in Deutschland als deutsches oder als europäisches Recht behalten. Ob der empfehlende Charakter der DIN EN 13816 Norm „ÖPNV: Definition, Festlegung von Leistungszielen und Messung der Servicequalität“ erhalten werden kann und nicht als Steuerungselement zur Standardisierung im ÖPNV beitragen wird, ist dabei zu bezweifeln. Durch diese Wettbewerbspflicht wird der Aufgabenträger zum Besteller von Verkehrsleistungen. Damit geht die Verkehrsplanung in die Verantwortung des Aufgabenträgers über und gerät stärker in den Einflussbereich der Politik. Die strategisch abstrakte und die konkrete Verkehrsplanung wachsen für den Normfall der Standardausschreibung zusammen. Die Hoffnung auf eine bessere Netzintegration und eine Standardisierung des ÖPNV Angebots und der ÖPNV Qualität entsteht. Es entwickelt sich dadurch aber auch die Gefahr der Abhängigkeit des Nahverkehrsangebots von der derzeitigen Haushaltslage oder der Interessenlage der Politik. Kontinuität in Angebot und Qualität werden zu erklärten Planungszielen. Der Verkehrsplaner auf der Bestellerseite muss die Planung in Ausschreibungsunterlagen umsetzen. Dies erfordert erweiterte Kompetenzen in den Bereichen Betriebswirtschaft, Logistik, Jura, Informatik und Führungskompetenzen. Ausbildende Institutionen müssen darauf bereits im Vorfeld der Umsetzung reagieren. Durch die zeitliche Verzögerung der Umsetzung der Planung durch die Ausschreibungsschritte sind in der Verkehrsplanung längere Planungsvorlaufzeiten einzukalkulieren. Vorausschauender zu planen, wird dabei wichtiger. Auch eventuelle Fehler in der Planung sind nicht mehr so einfach zu korrigieren. Durch den gestiegenen Einsatz von Technologien in den Fahrzeugen besteht für den Verkehrsplaner dafür häufiger die Möglichkeit, Planungsänderungen auf ihre Wirksamkeit im Hinblick auf Attraktivität für den Fahrgast anhand von den ermittelten Fahrgastzahlen zu kontrollieren. Dasselbe gilt auch für Marketing- und Vertriebsmaßnahmen, wie für die Tarifpolitik. Die Zahlen stehen nicht nur für diese Rückkopplung zur Verfügung, sondern dienen auch als Planungsgrundlage für zukünftige Maßnahmen. Dem Planer stehen konkretere Zahlen für die Planung zur Verfügung. Ein Aspekt, der aufgrund der Sanktionsmaßnahmen bei Ausschreibungen an Bedeutung gewinnen wird, ist die Möglichkeit, Qualität von Verkehrsleistungen möglichst objektiv beurteilen zu können. Praxisrelevante Auswirkungen auf die Verkehrsplanung des öffentlichen Personennahverkehrs ergeben sich hauptsächlich durch die gestiegene Komplexität in der Planung selbst und den dadurch unverzichtbaren gewordenen Einsatz von Computerunterstützung. Die Umsetzung in Ausschreibungsunterlagen der Planung und die Kontrolle stellen neue Elemente im Aufgabenbereich des Verkehrsplaners dar und erfordern damit breiter ausgelegte Kernkompetenzen. Es werden mehr Verkehrsplaner mit breiterer Ausbildung benötigt werden. Diese Arbeit hat aufgezeigt, dass sich mit der Integration des Ausschreibungsgedankens in den Ablauf der Verkehrsplanung eine sprunghafte Entwicklung in der Planungstätigkeit ergeben wird. Aufgrund der in Zukunft steigenden Qualität und Quantität der Planungsgrundlagen und der ebenfalls gestiegenen Ansprüche an die Bewertungsparameter ergeben sich Veränderungen und neue Anforderungen auf diesem Gebiet, die in erster Linie für die Hochschulen und andere ausbildende Einrichtungen, aber auch für die Verkehrsplanung unterstützende Industrie.

Poverty targeting and income impact of subsidised credit on accessed households in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam

This paper uses the data of 1338 rural households in the Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam to examine the extent to which subsidised credit targets the poor and its impacts. Principal Component Analysis and Propensity Score Matching were used to evaluate the depth of outreach and the income impact of credit. To address the problem of model uncertainty, the approach of Bayesian Model Average applied to the probit model was used. Results showed that subsidised credit successfully targeted the poor households with 24.10% and 69.20% of clients falling into the poorest group and the three bottom groups respectively. Moreover, those who received subsidised credit make up 83% of ethnic minority households. These results indicate that governmental subsidies are necessary to reach the poor and low income households, who need capital but are normally bypassed by commercial banks. Analyses also showed that ethnicity and age of household heads, number of helpers, savings, as well as how affected households are by shocks were all factors that further explained the probability at which subsidised credit has been assessed. Furthermore, recipients obtained a 2.61% higher total income and a 5.93% higher farm income compared to non-recipients. However, these small magnitudes of effects are statistically insignificant at a 5% level. Although the subsidised credit is insufficient to significantly improve the income of the poor households, it possibly prevents these households of becoming even poorer.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Reviewing the EU ETS review? Report of the CEPS TAsk Force on "Does the ETS market produce the 'right' price signal"? CEPS Task Force Report, 12 November 2012

Drawing on discussions within a CEPS Task Force on the revised EU emissions trading system, this report provides a comprehensive assessment of the pros and cons of the various measures put forward by different stakeholders to address the level and stability of the price of carbon in the EU. It argues that the European Commission, the member states, the European Parliament and other stakeholders need to give serious consideration to introducing some kind of ‘dynamic’ adjustment provision to address the relatively inelastic supply. The report also suggests that there is a need to improve communication of market-sensitive information, for example by leaving the management of the ETS to a specialised body.

Analysis of water-level response to rainfall and implications for recharge pathways in the Chalk aquifer, SE England

Water table response to rainfall was investigated at six sites in the Upper, Middle and Lower Chalk of southern England. Daily time series of rainfall and borehole water level were cross-corretated to investigate seasonal variations in groundwater-level response times, based on periods of 3-month duration. The time tags (in days) yielding significant correlations were compared with the average unsaturated zone thickness during each 3-month period. In general, for cases when the unsaturated zone was greater than 18 m thick, the time tag for a significant water-level response increased rapidly once the depth to the water table exceeded a critical value, which varied from site to site. For shallower water tables, a linear relationship between the depth to the water table and the water-level response time was evident. The observed variations in response time can only be partially accounted for using a diffusive model for propagation through the unsaturated matrix, suggesting that some fissure flow was occurring. The majority of rapid responses were observed during the winter/spring recharge period, when the unsaturated zone is thinnest and the unsaturated zone moisture content is highest, and were more likely to occur when the rainfall intensity exceeded 5 mm/day. At some sites, a very rapid response within 24 h of rainfall was observed in addition to the longer term responses even when the unsaturated zone was up to 64 m thick. This response was generally associated with the autumn period. The results of the cross-correlation analysis provide statistical support for the presence of fissure flow and for the contribution of multiple pathways through the unsaturated zone to groundwater recharge. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The price of space: the convergence of value in use and value in exchange

This paper discusses concepts of value from the point of view of the user of the space and the counter view of the provider of the same. Land and property are factors of production. The value of the land flows from the use to which it is put, and that in turn, is dependent upon the demand (and supply) for the product or service that is produced/provided from that space. If there is a high demand for the product (at a fixed level of supply), the price will increase and the economic rent for the land/property will increase accordingly. This is the underlying paradigm of Ricardian rent theory where the supply of land is fixed and a single good is produced. In such a case the rent of land is wholly an economic rent. Economic theory generally distinguishes between two kinds of price, price of production or “value in use” (as determined by the labour theory of value), and market price or “value in exchange” (as determined by supply and demand). It is based on a coherent and consistent theory of value and price. Effectively the distinction is between what space is ‘worth’ to an individual and that space’s price of exchange in the market place. In a perfect market where any individual has access to the same information as all others in the market, price and worth should coincide. However in a market where access to information is not uniform, and where different uses compete for the same space, it is more likely that the two figures will diverge. This paper argues that the traditional reliance of valuers to use methods of comparison to determine “price” has led to an artificial divergence of “value in use” and “value in exchange”, but now such comparison are becoming more difficult due to the diversity of lettings in the market place, there will be a requirement to return to fundamentals and pay heed to the thought process of the user in assessing the worth of the space to be let.

Price-based demand side management: Assessing the impacts of time-of-use tariffs on residential electricity demand and peak shifting in Northern Italy

One of the most common Demand Side Management programs consists of Time-of-Use (TOU) tariffs, where consumers are charged differently depending on the time of the day when they make use of energy services. This paper assesses the impacts of TOU tariffs on a dataset of residential users from the Province of Trento in Northern Italy in terms of changes in electricity demand, price savings, peak load shifting and peak electricity demand at substation level. Findings highlight that TOU tariffs bring about higher average electricity consumption and lower payments by consumers. A significant level of load shifting takes place for morning peaks. However, issues with evening peaks are not resolved. Finally, TOU tariffs lead to increases in electricity demand for substations at peak time.

Revenue-neutral tax policy under price uncertainty

The firm's response to revenue-neutral taxation is investigated under price uncertainty. Revenue-neutral policies adjust simultaneously the marginal tax rate and the level of exemptions while keeping expected tax receipts constant. Nonincreasing absolute risk aversion is sufficient to sign the firm's response: a reduction in the marginal rate causes the firm to contract output. Implications are established for the equilibrium level of treasury receipts.

Revenue-neutral tax policies under price uncertainty: reply

In their comment on my 1990 article, Yeh, Suwanakul, and Mai extend my analysis-which focused attention exclusively on firm output-to allow for simultaneous endogeneity of price, aggregate output, and numbers of firms. They show that, with downward- sloping demand, industry output adjusts positively to revenue-neutral changes in the marginal rate of taxation. This result is significant for two reasons. First, we are more often interested in predictions about aggregate phenomena than we are in predictions about individual firms. Indeed, firm-level predictions are frequently irrefutable since firm data are often unavailable. Second, the authors derive their result under a set of conditions that appear to be more general than those invoked in my 1990 article. In particular, they circumvent the need to invoke specific assumptions about the nature of firms' aversions toward risk. I consider this a useful extension and I appreciate the careful scrutiny of my paper.

Budget constrained tax policy under price uncertainty: implications for supply control

Tax policies that constrain net transfers between the farm sector and the fisc are modeled under price uncertainty. Increasing the level of tax on profits causes the firm to expand output. Implications are derived for supply control and the distributions of profits and net receipts at the fisc.

Can nutrition be promoted through agriculture-led food price policies? A systematic review

Abstract Objective: To systematically review the available evidence on whether national or international agricultural policies that directly affect the price of food influence the prevalence rates of undernutrition or nutrition-related chronic disease in children and adults. Design: Systematic review. Setting: Global. Search strategy: We systematically searched five databases for published literature (MEDLINE, EconLit, Agricola, AgEcon Search, Scopus) and systematically browsed other databases and relevant organisational websites for unpublished literature. Reference lists of included publications were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. We included studies that evaluated or simulated the effects of national or international food-price-related agricultural policies on nutrition outcomes reporting data collected after 1990 and published in English. Primary and secondary outcomes: Prevalence rates of undernutrition (measured with anthropometry or clinical deficiencies) and overnutrition (obesity and nutrition-related chronic diseases including cancer, heart disease and diabetes). Results: We identified a total of four relevant reports; two ex post evaluations and two ex ante simulations. A study from India reported on the undernutrition rates in children, and the other three studies from Egypt, the Netherlands and the USA reported on the nutrition related chronic disease outcomes in adults. Two of the studies assessed the impact of policies that subsidised the price of agricultural outputs and two focused on public food distribution policies. The limited evidence base provided some support for the notion that agricultural policies that change the prices of foods at a national level can have an effect on population-level nutrition and health outcomes. Conclusions: A systematic review of the available literature suggests that there is a paucity of robust direct evidence on the impact of agricultural price policies on nutrition and health.

Once upon a time, there was a fabulous funambulist: What children learn about the “high-level” vocabulary they encounter while listening to stories

Previous research has shown that listening to stories supports vocabulary growth in preschool and school-aged children and that lexical entries for even very difficult or rare words can be established if these are defined when they are first introduced. However, little is known about the nature of the lexical representations children form for the words they encounter while listening to stories, or whether these are sufficiently robust to support the child’s own use of such ‘high-level’ vocabulary. This study explored these questions by administering multiple assessments of children’s knowledge about a set of newly-acquired vocabulary. Four- and 6-year-old children were introduced to nine difficult new words (including nouns, verbs and adjectives) through three exposures to a story read by their class teacher. The story included a definition of each new word at its first encounter. Learning of the target vocabulary was assessed by means of two tests of semantic understanding – a forced choice picture-selection task and a definition production task – and a grammaticality judgment task, which asked children to choose between a syntactically-appropriate and syntactically-inappropriate usage of the word. Children in both age groups selected the correct pictorial representation and provided an appropriate definition for the target words in all three word classes significantly more often than they did for a matched set of non-exposed control words. However, only the older group was able to identify the syntactically-appropriate sentence frames in the grammaticality judgment task. Further analyses elucidate some of the components of the lexical representations children lay down when they hear difficult new vocabulary in stories and how different tests of word knowledge might overlap in their assessment of these components.

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

House price dynamics in Panama City

In this paper, we analyze the drivers of the housing markets in Panama City. To the best of our knowledge, no formal academic analysis has been documented on the Panamanian housing market. In this paper, we outline key unique characteristics of the market and provide a brief review of broader economic indicators and housing market literature. Using a unique dataset comprising property-level information over 2007–2014, we employ a hedonic modeling framework to analyze the impacts of certain amenities and drivers that may affect housing values. The results indicate several unique features of the Panamanian housing market.