Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

Post-operative analgesic effects of butorphanol or firocoxib administered to dogs undergoing elective ovariohysterectomy

ObjectiveTo compare the post-operative analgesic effects of butorphanol or firocoxib in dogs undergoing ovariohysterectomy.Study designProspective, randomized, blinded, clinical trial.AnimalsTwenty-five dogs > 1 year of age.MethodsDogs received acepromazine intramuscularly (IM), 0.05 mg kg-1 and either butorphanol IM, 0.2 mg kg-1 (BG, n = 12) or firocoxib orally (PO), 5 mg kg-1 (FG, n = 13), approximately 30 minutes before induction of anesthesia with propofol. Anesthesia was maintained with isoflurane. Ovariohysterectomy was performed by the same surgeon. Pain scores using the dynamic and interactive visual analog scale (DIVAS) were performed before and at 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 20 hours after the end of surgery by one observer, blinded to the treatment. Rescue analgesia was provided with morphine (0.5 mg kg-1) IM and firocoxib, 5 mg kg-1 (BG only) PO if DIVAS > 50. Groups were compared using paired t-tests and Fisher's exact test (p < 0.05). Data are presented as mean +/- SD.ResultsThe BG required significantly less propofol (BG: 2.6 +/- 0.59 mg kg-1; FG: 5.39 +/- 0.7 mg kg-1) (p < 0.05) but the anesthesia time was longer (BG: 14 +/- 6, FG: 10 +/- 4 minutes). There were no differences for body weight (BG: 7.9 +/- 5.0, FG: 11.5 +/- 4.6 kg), sedation scores, and surgery and extubation times (BG: 10 +/- 2, 8 +/- 5 minutes; FG: 9 +/- 3, 8 +/- 4 minutes, respectively) (p > 0.05). The FG had significantly lower pain scores than the BG at 1, 2 and 3 hours following surgery (p < 0.05). Rescue analgesia was administered to 11/12 (92%) and 2/13 (15%) dogs in the BG and FG, respectively (p < 0.05).Conclusion and clinical relevanceFirocoxib produced better post-operative analgesia than butorphanol. Firocoxib may be used as part of a multimodal analgesia protocol but may not be effective as a sole analgesic.

Meal size and specific dynamic action in the rattlesnake Crotalus durissus (Serpentes : Viperidae)

We studied the effect of meal size on specific dynamic action (SDA) in the South American rattlesnake Crotalus durissus, by measuring oxygen consumption rates (VO2) prior to and after the ingestion of meals ranging from 10-50% of snake's body mass. Regardless of meal size, variation in VO2 with time during digestion demonstrated the same general pattern. Oxygen consumption rates peaked between 15 and 33 h post-feeding, at values 3.7-7.3 times those prior to feeding. Snakes, while digesting meals of 30% and 50% of their body mass, experienced VO2 that exceeded rates measured during forced activity. Following peaks in VO2, rates returned to prefeeding values within 62-170 h post-feeding. Post-prandial peak in VO2 and the duration of the metabolic response to feeding increased with meal size. Digestion is an energetically demanding activity for C. durissus, with an estimated cost equaling 12-18% of the ingested assimilated energy.

Fatigue resistance of bovine teeth restored with resin-bonded fiber posts: Effect of post surface conditioning

This study evaluated the effect of post surface conditioning on the fatigue resistance of bovine teeth restored with resin-bonded fiber-reinforced composite (FRC). Root canals of 20 single-rooted bovine teeth (16 mm long) were prepared to 12 mm using a preparation drill of a double-tapered fiber post system. Using acrylic resin, each specimen was embedded (up to 3.0 mm from the cervical part of the specimen) in a PVC cylinder and allocated into one of two groups (n = 10) based on the post surface conditioning method: acid etching plus silanization or tribochemical silica coating (30 μm SiOx + silanization). The root canal dentin was etched (H2PO3 for 30 seconds), rinsed, and dried. A multi-step adhesive system was applied to the root dentin and the fiber posts were cemented with resin cement. The specimens were submitted to one million fatigue cycles. After fatigue testing, a score was given based on the number of fatigue cycles until fracture. All of the specimens were resistant to fatigue. No fracture of the root or the post and no loss of retention of the post were observed. The methodology and the results of this study indicate that tribochemical silica coating and acid etching performed equally well when dynamic mechanical loading was used.

Archives information publishing new design in post-custodial regime: The National Archives Experience Digital Vaults

The uses of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Web environments for creation, treatment and availability of information have supported the emergence of new social-cultural patterns represented by convergences in textual, image and audio languages. This paper describes and analyzes the National Archives Experience Digital Vaults as a digital publishing web environment and as a cultural heritage. It is a complex system - synthesizer of information design options at information setting, provides new aesthetic aspects, but specially enlarges the cognition of the subjects who interact with the environment. It also enlarges the institutional spaces that guard the collective memory beyond its role of keeping the physical patrimony collected there. Digital Vaults lies as a mix of guide and interactive catalogue to be dealt in a ludic way. The publishing design of the information held on the Archives is meant to facilitate access to knowledge. The documents are organized in a dynamic and not chronological way. They are not divided in fonds or distinct categories, but in controlled interaction of documents previously indexed and linked by the software. The software creates information design and view of documental content that can be considered a new paradigm in Information Science and are part of post-custodial regime, independent from physical spaces and institutions. Information professionals must be prepared to understand and work with the paradigmatic changes described and represented by the new hybrid digital environments; hence the importance of this paper. Cyberspace interactivity between user and the content provided by the environment design provide cooperation, collaboration and sharing knowledge actions, all features of networks, transforming culture globally. © 2011 - IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

Archives information publishing new design in post-custodial regime: The National Archives Experience Digital Vaults

The uses of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Web environments for creation, treatment and availability of information have supported the emergence of new social-cultural patterns represented by convergences in textual, image and audio languages. This paper describes and analyzes the National Archives Experience Digital Vaults as a digital publishing web environment and as a cultural heritage. It is a complex system - synthesizer of information design options at information setting, provides new aesthetic aspects, but specially enlarges the cognition of the subjects who interact with the environment. It also enlarges the institutional spaces that guard the collective memory beyond its role of keeping the physical patrimony collected there. Digital Vaults lies as a mix of guide and interactive catalogue to be dealt in a ludic way. The publishing design of the information held on the Archives is meant to facilitate access to knowledge. The documents are organized in a dynamic and not chronological way. They are not divided in fonds or distinct categories, but in controlled interaction of documents previously indexed and linked by the software. The software creates information design and view of documental content that can be considered a new paradigm in Information Science and are part of post-custodial regime, independent from physical spaces and institutions. Information professionals must be prepared to understand and work with the paradigmatic changes described and represented by the new hybrid digital environments; hence the importance of this paper. Cyberspace interactivity between user and the content provided by the environment design provide cooperation, collaboration and sharing knowledge actions, all features of networks, transforming culture globally.

Analysis of HCV quasispecies dynamic under selective pressure of combined therapy

Background: The quasispecies composition of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) could have important implications with regard to viral persistence and response to interferon-based therapy. The complete NS5A was analyzed to evaluate whether the composition of NS5A quasispecies of HCV 1a/1b is related to responsiveness to combined interferon pegylated (PEG-IFN) and ribavirin therapy.Methods: Viral RNA was isolated from serum samples collected before, during and after treatment from virological sustained responder (SVR), non-responder (NR) and the end-of-treatment responder patients (ETR). NS5A region was amplified, cloned and sequenced. Six hundred and ninety full-length NS5A sequences were analyzed.Results: This study provides evidence that lower nucleotide diversity of the NS5A region pre-therapy is associated with viral clearance. Analysis of samples of NRs and the ETRs time points showed that genetic diversity of populations tend to decrease over time. Post-therapy population of ETRs presented higher genetic distance from baseline probably due to the bottleneck phenomenon observed for those patients in the end of treatment. The viral effective population of those patients also showed a strong decrease after therapy. Otherwise, NRs demonstrated a continuous variation or stability of effective populations and genetic diversity over time that did not seem to be related to therapy. Phylogenetic relationships concerning complete NS5A sequences obtained from patients did not demonstrate clustering associated with specific response patterns. However, distinctive clustering of pre/post-therapy sequences was observed. In addition, the evolution of quasispecies over time was subjected to purifying or relaxed purifying selection. Codons 157 (P03), 182 and 440 (P42), 62 and 404 (P44) were found to be under positive selective pressure but it failed to be related to the therapy.Conclusion: These results confirm the hypothesis that a relationship exists between NS5A heterogeneity and response to therapy in patients infected with chronic hepatitis C. © 2013 Jardim et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Ablation of the ability to control the right-to-left cardiac shunt does not affect oxygen uptake, specific dynamic action or growth in the rattlesnake Crotalus durissus

The morphologically undivided ventricle of the heart in non-crocodilian reptiles permits the mixing of oxygen-rich blood returning from the lungs and oxygen-poor blood from the systemic circulation. A possible functional significance for this intra-cardiac shunt has been debated for almost a century. Unilateral left vagotomy rendered the single effective pulmonary artery of the South American rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus, unable to adjust the magnitude of blood flow to the lung. The higher constant perfusion of the lung circulation and the incapability of adjusting the right-left shunt in left-denervated snakes persisted over time, providing a unique model for investigation of the long-term consequences of cardiac shunting in a squamate. Oxygen uptake recorded at rest and during spontaneous and forced activity was not affected by removing control of the cardiac shunt. Furthermore, metabolic rate and energetic balance during the post-prandial metabolic increment, plus the food conversion efficiency and growth rate, were all similarly unaffected. These results show that control of cardiac shunting is not associated with a clear functional advantage in adjusting metabolic rate, effectiveness of digestion or growth rates. © 2013. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Temperature and thermal regime effects on the specific dynamic action of Bothrops alternatus (Serpentes, Viperidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Archives information publishing new design in post-custodial regime: the national archives experience digital vaults

The uses of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Web environments for creation, treatment and availability of information have supported the emergence of new social-cultural patterns represented by convergences in textual, image and audio languages. This paper describes and analyzes the National Archives Experience Digital Vaults as a digital publishing web environment and as a cultural heritage. It is a complex system - synthesizer of information design options at information setting, provides new aesthetic aspects, but specially enlarges the cognition of the subjects who interact with the environment. It also enlarges the institutional spaces that guard the collective memory beyond its role of keeping the physical patrimony collected there. Digital Vaults lies as a mix of guide and interactive catalogue to be dealt in a ludic way. The publishing design of the information held on the Archives is meant to facilitate access to knowledge. The documents are organized in a dynamic and not chronological way. They are not divided in fonds or distinct categories, but in controlled interaction of documents previously indexed and linked by the software. The software creates information design and view of documental content that can be considered a new paradigm in Information Science and are part of post-custodial regime, independent from physical spaces and institutions. Information professionals must be prepared to understand and work with the paradigmatic changes described and represented by the new hybrid digital environments; hence the importance of this paper. Cyberspace interactivity between user and the content provided by the environment design provide cooperation, collaboration and sharing knowledge actions, all features of networks, transforming culture globally.

Dynamic identification of structures: experimental assessment of modal parameteres through methods in frequency domain, in time-frequency domain and model updating

Among the experimental methods commonly used to define the behaviour of a full scale system, dynamic tests are the most complete and efficient procedures. A dynamic test is an experimental process, which would define a set of characteristic parameters of the dynamic behaviour of the system, such as natural frequencies of the structure, mode shapes and the corresponding modal damping values associated. An assessment of these modal characteristics can be used both to verify the theoretical assumptions of the project, to monitor the performance of the structural system during its operational use. The thesis is structured in the following chapters: The first introductive chapter recalls some basic notions of dynamics of structure, focusing the discussion on the problem of systems with multiply degrees of freedom (MDOF), which can represent a generic real system under study, when it is excited with harmonic force or in free vibration. The second chapter is entirely centred on to the problem of dynamic identification process of a structure, if it is subjected to an experimental test in forced vibrations. It first describes the construction of FRF through classical FFT of the recorded signal. A different method, also in the frequency domain, is subsequently introduced; it allows accurately to compute the FRF using the geometric characteristics of the ellipse that represents the direct input-output comparison. The two methods are compared and then the attention is focused on some advantages of the proposed methodology. The third chapter focuses on the study of real structures when they are subjected to experimental test, where the force is not known, like in an ambient or impact test. In this analysis we decided to use the CWT, which allows a simultaneous investigation in the time and frequency domain of a generic signal x(t). The CWT is first introduced to process free oscillations, with excellent results both in terms of frequencies, dampings and vibration modes. The application in the case of ambient vibrations defines accurate modal parameters of the system, although on the damping some important observations should be made. The fourth chapter is still on the problem of post processing data acquired after a vibration test, but this time through the application of discrete wavelet transform (DWT). In the first part the results obtained by the DWT are compared with those obtained by the application of CWT. Particular attention is given to the use of DWT as a tool for filtering the recorded signal, in fact in case of ambient vibrations the signals are often affected by the presence of a significant level of noise. The fifth chapter focuses on another important aspect of the identification process: the model updating. In this chapter, starting from the modal parameters obtained from some environmental vibration tests, performed by the University of Porto in 2008 and the University of Sheffild on the Humber Bridge in England, a FE model of the bridge is defined, in order to define what type of model is able to capture more accurately the real dynamic behaviour of the bridge. The sixth chapter outlines the necessary conclusions of the presented research. They concern the application of a method in the frequency domain in order to evaluate the modal parameters of a structure and its advantages, the advantages in applying a procedure based on the use of wavelet transforms in the process of identification in tests with unknown input and finally the problem of 3D modeling of systems with many degrees of freedom and with different types of uncertainty.

Post-mortem angiography after vascular perfusion with diesel oil and a lipophilic contrast agent

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to establish optimal perfusion conditions for high-resolution postmortem angiography that would permit dynamic visualization of the arterial and venous systems. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cadavers of two dogs and one cat were perfused with diesel oil through a peristaltic pump. The lipophilic contrast agent Lipiodol Ultra Fluide was then injected, and angiography was performed. The efficiency of perfusion was evaluated in the chick chorioallantoic membrane. RESULTS: Vessels could be seen up to the level of the smaller supplying and draining vessels. Hence, both the arterial and the venous sides of the vascular system could be distinguished. The chorioallantoic membrane assay revealed that diesel oil enters microvessels up to 50 microm in diameter and that it does not penetrate the capillary network. CONCLUSION: After establishing a postmortem circulation by diesel oil perfusion, angiography can be performed by injection of Lipiodol Ultra Fluide. The resolution of the images obtained up to 3 days after death is comparable to that achieved in clinical angiography.

Endobronchial donor pre-treatment with ventavis: is a second administration during reperfusion beneficial to optimize post-ischemic function of non-heart beating donor lungs?

BACKGROUND: Lung retrieval from non-heart-beating donors (NHBD) has been introduced into clinical practice successfully. However, because of potentially deleterious effects of warm ischemia on microvascular integrity, use of NHBD lungs is limited by short tolerable time periods before preservation. Recently, improvement of NHBD graft function was demonstrated by donor pre-treatment using aerosolized Ventavis (Schering Inc., Berlin, Germany). Currently, there is no information whether additional application of this approach in reperfusion can further optimize immediate graft function. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Asystolic pigs (n = 5/group) were ventilated for 180-min of warm ischemia (groups 1-3). In groups 2 and 3, 100 microg Ventavis were aerosolized over 30-min using an ultrasonic nebulizer (Optineb). Lungs were then retrogradely preserved with Perfadex and stored for 3-h. After left lung transplantation and contralateral lung exclusion, grafts were reperfused for 6-h. Only in group 3, another dose of 100 microg Ventavis was aerosolized during the first 30-min of reperfusion. Hemodynamics, pO2/FiO2 and dynamic compliance were monitored continuously and compared to controls. Intraalveolar edema was quantified stereologically, and extravascular-lung-water-index (EVLWI) was measured. Statistics comprised ANOVA analysis with repeated measurements. RESULTS: Dynamic compliance was significantly lower in both Ventavis groups, but additional administration did not result in further improvement. Oxygenation, pulmonary hemodynamics, EVLWI and intraalveolar edema formation were comparable between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Alveolar deposition of Ventavis in NHBD lungs before preservation significantly improves dynamic lung compliance and represents an important strategy for improvement of preservation quality and expansion of warm ischemic intervals. However, additional application of this method in early reperfusion is of no benefit.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced and diffusion-weighted MRI for early detection of tumoral changes in single-dose and fractionated radiotherapy: evaluation in a rat rhabdomyosarcoma model

We aimed to examine different intratumoral changes after single-dose and fractionated radiotherapy, using diffusion-weighted (DW) and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI in a rat rhabdomyosarcoma model. Four WAG/Rij rats with rhabdomyosarcomas in the flanks received single-dose radiotherapy of 8 Gy, and four others underwent fractionated radiotherapy (five times 3 Gy). In rats receiving single-dose radiotherapy, a significant perfusion decrease was found in the first 2 days post-treatment, with slow recuperation afterwards. No substantial diffusion changes could be seen; tumor growth delay was 12 days. The rats undergoing fractionated radiotherapy showed a similar perfusion decrease early after the treatment. However, a very strong increase in apparent diffusion coefficient occurred in the first 10 days; growth delay was 18 days. DW-MRI and DCE-MRI can be used to show early tumoral changes induced by radiotherapy. Single-dose and fractionated radiotherapy induce an immediate perfusion effect, while the latter induces more intratumoral necrosis.

On the detection of dynamic responses in a drought-perturbed tropical rainforest in Borneo

The dynamics of aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo is influenced by perturbation from droughts. These events might be increasing in frequency and intensity in the future. This paper describes drought-affected dynamics between 1986 and 2001 in Sabah, Malaysia, and considers how it is possible, reliably and accurately, to measure both coarse- and fine-scale responses of the forest. Some fundamental concerns about methodology and data analysis emerge. In two plots forming 8 ha, mortality, recruitment, and stem growth rates of trees ≥10 cm gbh (girth at breast height) were measured in a ‘pre-drought’ period (1986–1996), and in a period (1996–2001) including the 1997–1998 ENSO-drought. For 2.56 ha of subplots, mortality and growth rates of small trees (10–<50 cm gbh) were found also for two sub-periods (1996–1999, 1999–2001). A total of c. 19 K trees were recorded. Mortality rate increased by 25% while both recruitment and relative growth rates increased by 12% for all trees at the coarse scale. For small trees, at the fine scale, mortality increased by 6% and 9% from pre-drought to drought and on to ‘post-drought’ sub-periods. Relative growth rates correspondingly decreased by 38% and increased by 98%. Tree size and topography interacted in a complex manner with between-plot differences. The forest appears to have been sustained by off-setting elevated tree mortality by highly resilient stem growth. This last is seen as the key integrating tree variable which links the external driver (drought causing water stress) and population dynamics recorded as mortality and recruitment. Suitably sound measurements of stem girth, leading to valid growth rates, are needed to understand and model tree dynamic responses to perturbations. The proportion of sound data, however, is in part determined by the drought itself.