Sovereign debt and CRAs: Where does the power lie?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The role of electron transfer in DNA building blocks: evaluation of strand breaks and their implications

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Física

Decline in prevalence and asymmetric distribution of human T cell lymphotropic virus 1 and 2 in blood donors, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1993 to 2007

INTRODUCTION: Human T cell lymphotropic virus types 1 and 2 (HTLV-1/2) are endemic in Brazil and are screened for in transfusion services since 1993. This study evaluated the evolution of the prevalence of HTLV-1 and 2 in blood donors of the Hemominas Foundation from 1993 to 2007, and its geographical distribution in State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. METHODS: The Hemominas Foundation is a centralized blood center in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The sources of data were the Hemominas Foundation Technical Bulletin and files from the centralized serological laboratory. Donors were tested in the period using enzyme linked immuno sorbent assays (ELISA), followed by Western blot, when repeatedly reactive. The data were analyzed by EPIINFO 6.2 and TABWIN 3.5 softwares. RESULTS: The average seroprevalence in the period 1993-2007 was 0.1%. A steady decline occurred from 0.4% in 1993 to below 0.1% in 2002 and later, with a transient peak of 0.5% in 1994. HTLV reactivity distribution was asymmetrical in the state, with regions of higher prevalence, interspersed with low prevalence areas. Comparison of positive and negative donors verified that increasing age was proportional to virus positivity. Odds ratio for age ranged from 1.43 (30 to 39 years-old) to 3.09 (50 to 65 years-old). Women had a greater chance of being positive (OR-1.64), as previously described. CONCLUSIONS: Possible explanations for HTLV-1/2 prevalence decline are the exclusion of positive donors from the donor pool, an increase in repeat donors and ELISA test improvement, with reduction in the number of false positive results.

Clinical practice guidelines in Portugal : quantitative and qualitative evaluation

RESUMO: Introdução As normas de orientação clínica são ferramentas úteis na translação de conhecimentos desde a investigação para a prática clínica diária. Estratégias ativas de implementação de normas de orientação clínica requerem elevado esforço organizacional e financeiro. Quando os recursos são escassos, as estratégias passivas podem ser a única opção de disseminação. Desde 2011 a Direção Geral da Saúde publicou cento e cinquenta e nove normas de orientação clínica. Nesta Tese é feita uma avaliação do impacto que estratégias de disseminação de normas de orientação clínica têm no padrão de prescrição dos médicos e uma avaliação qualitativa do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. Métodos: O primeiro artigo é um estudo quasi experimental usando uma série de análises temporais interrompida para comparar os níveis observados e esperados de prescrição de inibidores da ciclooxigenasa-2, antes e depois da publicação da norma de orientação clínica sobre a utilização de anti-inflamatórios não esteroides. O segundo estudo é um artigo de opinião e debate no qual numa primeira parte contextualiza o processo das normas da Direcção Geral da Saúde, na segunda parte aponta virtudes e defeitos no processo e a terceira parte constitui uma contribuição com vista à melhoria do processo. Discussão A produção de normas de orientação clínica requer metodologia rigorosa e complexa. A literatura médica revela que a translação de conhecimento é uma tarefa árdua. Estratégias de implementação ativas requerem recursos financeiros e organizacionais sólidos. Estratégias de implementação passivas podem representar uma solução aceitável se os recursos financeiros e organizacionais escasseiam. Pouco é conhecido sobre a eficácia destas estratégias fora do contexto de investigação. Com esta Tese pretendo contribuir para a clarificação desta resposta, outros países e instituições podem ver utilidade nesta informação, bem como pretendo contribuir para a discussão e melhoria do processo das normas de orientação clínica em Portugal. ------------------ ABSTRACT: Introduction Clinical practice guidelines can help address the failure to translate research findings into clinical practice. Active clinical practice guidelines implementation strategies require active efforts from organizations and are resource and financially demanding. Passive implementation strategies may represent the only option if resources are scarce. Out of research environment, real world efficacy of passive implementation strategies is still undetermined. Since 2011 the Portuguese General Health Directorate published one hundred and fifty nine guidelines. In this Thesis I evaluate the impact of passive dissemination of clinical practice guideline in clinician’s prescription behavior and review, from a qualitative point of view, the Portuguese clinical practice guideline process. Methods The first study is a quasi-experimental study using a retrospective interrupted time-series analysis design to compare the observed and expected prescription of cyclooxygenase-2 before and after the non steroidal antiinflammatory guideline publication. The second study is an opinion and debate article in which I firstly review the General Health Directorate guideline process. The second part states positive and negative aspects in the process and the third part is a contribution aimed at improving the process in the future. Discussion Clinical practice guidelines production demands a rigorous and complex methodology. medical iterature reveals that knowledge translation is a difficult task. Active implementation strategies demand solid financial and organizational resources. Passive implementation strategies may represent an acceptable solution if financial and organizational resources are scarce. Little is known about the efficacy of these strategies out of the research context. With this Thesis I intend to contribute to clarify this question, other countries and institutions with similar conditions may find this information useful, and also to contribute for the discussion and general improvement of national clinical practice guidelines process.

Spousal support and satisfaction with healthcare services as moderators between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet in Type 2 Diabetes patients

Objectives: This study analyzed the moderating role of partners’ support and satisfaction with healthcare services in the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods: Participants were 387 recently diagnosed T2DM patients that answered the following instruments: Revised Summary of Diabetes Self- Care Activities Measure, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scales, Multidimensional Diabetes Questionnaire and Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire. Results: Partners’ positive and negative support moderated the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet. Satisfaction with healthcare services also moderated the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet. Conclusions: Intervention programs to promote adherence to diet in patients with type 2 diabetes should focus on partners’ support and patient satisfaction with healthcare services.

Monovarietal extra-virgin olive oil classification: a fusion of human sensory attributes and an electronic tongue

Olive oil quality grading is traditionally assessed by human sensory evaluation of positive and negative attributes (olfactory, gustatory, and final olfactorygustatory sensations). However, it is not guaranteed that trained panelist can correctly classify monovarietal extra-virgin olive oils according to olive cultivar. In this work, the potential application of human (sensory panelists) and artificial (electronic tongue) sensory evaluation of olive oils was studied aiming to discriminate eight single-cultivar extra-virgin olive oils. Linear discriminant, partial least square discriminant, and sparse partial least square discriminant analyses were evaluated. The best predictive classification was obtained using linear discriminant analysis with simulated annealing selection algorithm. A low-level data fusion approach (18 electronic tongue signals and nine sensory attributes) enabled 100 % leave-one-out cross-validation correct classification, improving the discrimination capability of the individual use of sensor profiles or sensory attributes (70 and 57 % leave-one-out correct classifications, respectively). So, human sensory evaluation and electronic tongue analysis may be used as complementary tools allowing successful monovarietal olive oil discrimination.

Detection of the viable myocardium. A perfusion scintigraphic study, before and after coronary bypass surgery in myocardial infarction patients

OBJECTIVE: To compare single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging scans using 201Tl and 99mTc-MIBI in detection of viable myocardium, in regions compromised by infarction. METHODS: Thirty-two (59.3±9.8 years old and 87% male) myocardial infarction patients were studied. All had Q waves on the ECG and left ventricle ejection fraction of <50%. They underwent coronary and left ventricle angiographies and SPECT before (including 201Tl reinjection) and after coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Improvement in perfusion observed after surgery was considered the gold standard for myocardial viability. RESULTS: Among 102 studied regions of the heart, there were 40 (39.2%) areas of transient perfusion defects in the conventional protocol with 201Tl and 52 (51.0%) after reinjection. Therefore, 12/62 (19.4%) more viable regions were identified by reinjection. Using 99mTc-MIBI, only 14 (13.7%) regions with transient defects were identified, all of which were seen also in 201Tl protocols. After surgery, 49 of a total of 93 regions analyzed (52.7%) were viable. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive and negative prediction values were, respectively, 201Tl SPECT scans - 65.3%, 90.9%, 77.4%, 88.9% and 70.2%, reinjection protocol with 201Tl scans - 81.6%, 81.8%, 81.7%, 83.3% and 80.0%; 99mTc-MIBI SPECT scans - 20.4%, 90.9%, 53.8%, 71.4% and 50.6%. Logistic regression demonstrated that the reinjection protocol with 201Tl was the best predictor of viability (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest the election of 201Tl for viability studies, especially when using the reinjection protocol.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy of the right ventricle. Predictive value of QT interval dispersion to assess arrhythmogenic risk and sudden death

OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.

First- and second-time parents’ couple relationship: from pregnancy to second year postpartum

First- and second-time parents’ couple relationships were studied from early pregnancy to the second year postpartum. The Relationship Questionnaire (RQ) was administered to Portuguese couples (N = 82), first- or second-time parents, at the first, second and third pregnancy trimester, childbirth, 3 and 18 months postpartum. Adverse changes in positive and negative partner relationship dimensions were reported from early pregnancy to the second year postpartum by all participants; in the same way by mothers and fathers and by first- and second-time parents. Second-time parents reported a worse couple relationship (lower RQ-positive scores) than first-time parents, but only during pregnancy. Results from the present study suggest a decline in partner relationship quality during the transition to parenthood both in mothers and fathers, as well as in first- and second-time parents.

Partner relationships during pregnancy in anxious and depressed women and men

To assess anxiety, depression and relationship satisfaction in both women and men during pregnancy, the State Anxiety Inventory (STAI), The Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D) and The Relationship Questionnaire (RQ) were administered during the second trimester to a sample of 59 pregnant women and their partners. Anxious pregnant women rated their relationships as less positive. Depressed pregnant women also rated their relationships as less positive. The women’s anxiety scores were predictive of their positive and negative relationship scores. The women and their partners’ negative relationship scores were also predictive of each others’ negative relationship scores. These results highlight the importance of targeting anxiety as well as depression, and pregnant women as well as their partners in prenatal intervention programs.

Relevance to Home Blood Pressure Monitoring Protocol of Blood Pressure Measurements Taken Before First- Morning Micturition and in the Afternoon

Background: The importance of measuring blood pressure before morning micturition and in the afternoon, while working, is yet to be established in relation to the accuracy of home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM). Objective: To compare two HBPM protocols, considering 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (wakefulness ABPM) as gold-standard and measurements taken before morning micturition (BM) and in the afternoon (AM), for the best diagnosis of systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), and their association with prognostic markers. Methods: After undergoing 24-hour wakefulness ABPM, 158 participants (84 women) were randomized for 3- or 5-day HBPM. Two variations of the 3-day protocol were considered: with measurements taken before morning micturition and in the afternoon (BM+AM); and with post-morning-micturition and evening measurements (PM+EM). All patients underwent echocardiography (for left ventricular hypertrophy - LVH) and urinary albumin measurement (for microalbuminuria - MAU). Result: Kappa statistic for the diagnosis of SAH between wakefulness-ABPM and standard 3-day HBPM, 3-day HBPM (BM+AM) and (PM+EM), and 5-day HBPM were 0.660, 0.638, 0.348 and 0.387, respectively. The values of sensitivity of (BM+AM) versus (PM+EM) were 82.6% × 71%, respectively, and of specificity, 84.8% × 74%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 69.1% × 40% and 92.2% × 91.2%, respectively. The comparisons of intraclass correlations for the diagnosis of LVH and MAU between (BM+AM) and (PM+EM) were 0.782 × 0.474 and 0.511 × 0.276, respectively. Conclusions: The 3 day-HBPM protocol including measurements taken before morning micturition and during work in the afternoon showed the best agreement with SAH diagnosis and the best association with prognostic markers.

Effects of Ischemic Postconditioning on the Hemodynamic Parameters and Heart Nitric Oxide Levels of Hypothyroid Rats

Background: Ischemic postconditioning (IPost) is a method of protecting the heart against ischemia-reperfusion (IR) injury. However, the effectiveness of IPost in cases of ischemic heart disease accompanied by co-morbidities such as hypothyroidism remains unclear. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of IPost on myocardial IR injury in hypothyroid male rats. Methods: Propylthiouracil in drinking water (500 mg/L) was administered to male rats for 21 days to induce hypothyroidism. The hearts from control and hypothyroid rats were perfused in a Langendorff apparatus and exposed to 30 min of global ischemia, followed by 120 min of reperfusion. IPost was induced immediately following ischemia. Results: Hypothyroidism and IPost significantly improved the left ventricular developed pressure (LVDP) and peak rates of positive and negative changes in left ventricular pressure (±dp/dt) during reperfusion in control rats (p < 0.05). However, IPost had no add-on effect on the recovery of LVDP and ±dp/dt in hypothyroid rats. Furthermore, hypothyroidism significantly decreased the basal NO metabolite (NOx) levels of the serum (72.5 ± 4.2 vs. 102.8 ± 3.7 μmol/L; p < 0.05) and heart (7.9 ± 1.6 vs. 18.8 ± 3.2 μmol/L; p < 0.05). Heart NOx concentration in the hypothyroid groups did not change after IR and IPost, whereas these were significantly (p < 0.05) higher and lower after IR and IPost, respectively, in the control groups. Conclusion: Hypothyroidism protects the heart from IR injury, which may be due to a decrease in basal nitric oxide (NO) levels in the serum and heart and a decrease in NO after IR. IPost did not decrease the NO level and did not provide further cardioprotection in the hypothyroid group.

Parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models: an empirical application to the female labour force in Portugal

This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

The relationship between subjective experiences during first use of tobacco and cannabis and the effect of the substance experienced first.

INTRODUCTION: We examined the positive and negative subjective feelings associated with initial tobacco and cannabis use as well as the role of these experiences in regular use. Additionally, we investigated the effect of the first substance experienced on initial subjective experiences and later regular use. METHODS: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men were obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, which includes 2,321 lifetime tobacco and cannabis users. We assessed the age of first tobacco and cannabis use along with the subjective experiences associated with initial use. Additionally, subjective experiences related to regular use of both substances were analyzed. RESULTS: The initial subjective experiences were divided into positive and negative for each substance, and we found that the feelings associated with first use of tobacco and cannabis were similar. Moreover, the participants who used cannabis before tobacco reported fewer negative experiences associated with first tobacco use, whereas the participants who initially used tobacco reported more negative experiences related to first cannabis use. Also, we identified that regular use was encouraged by positive experiences and that negative experiences were more adverse for regular use of cannabis compared with tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results indicate that similar subjective experiences were associated with the first use of tobacco and cannabis. Also, the use of cannabis before tobacco, which occurred in only a minority of users, had the potential to enhance the effects of initial tobacco use.