Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

Angler Perception and Population Dynamics of the Northern Snakehead (Channa argus) in the Potomac River & Tributaries

Our research sought to address the extent to which the northern snakehead (Channa argus), an invasive fish species, represents a threat to the Potomac River ecosystem. The first goal of our research was to survey the perceptions and opinions of recreational anglers on the effects of the snakehead population in the Potomac River ecosystem. To determine angler perceptions, we created and administered 113 surveys from June – September 2014 at recreational boat ramps along the Potomac River. Our surveys were designed to expand information collected during previous surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Our results indicated recreational anglers perceive that abundances and catch rates of target species, specifically largemouth bass, have declined since snakehead became established in the river. The second goal of our research was to determine the genetic diversity and potential of the snakehead population to expand in the Potomac River. We hypothesized that the effective genetic population size would be much less than the census size of the snakehead population in the Potomac River. We collected tissue samples (fin clippings) from 79 snakehead collected in a recreational tournament held between Fort Washington and Wilson’s Landing, MD on the Potomac River and from electrofishing sampling conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources in Pomonkey Creek, a tributary of the Potomac River. DNA was extracted from the tissue samples and scored for 12 microsatellite markers, which had previously been identified for Potomac River snakehead. Microsatellite allele frequency data were recorded and analyzed in the software programs GenAlEx and NeEstimator to estimate heterozygosity and effective genetic population size. Resampling simulations indicated that the number of microsatellites and the number of fish analyzed provided sufficient precision. Simulations indicated that the effective population size estimate would expect to stabilize for samples > 70 individual snakehead. Based on a sample of 79 fish scored for 12 microsatellites, we calculated an Ne of 15.3 individuals. This is substantially smaller than both the sample size and estimated population size. We conclude that genetic diversity in the snakehead population in the Potomac River is low because the population has yet to recover from a genetic bottleneck associated with a founder effect due to their recent introduction into the system.

Small-scale genetic structure of Cerastoderma glaucum in a lagoonal environment: potential significance of habitat discontinuity and unstable population dynamics

Environmental heterogeneity in coastal lagoons is expected to facilitate local adaptation in response to different ecological conditions, causing significant genetic structuring within lagoon populations at a small scale and also differentiation between lagoons. However, these patterns and processes of genetic structuring are still poorly understood. The aims of our study were (1) to seek genetic structure at a small scale in Cerastoderma glaucum inside the Mar Menor coastal lagoon using a mitochondrial DNA marker (COI) that has previously detected genetic differentiation inside the lagoon in other species and (2) to evaluate the influence of extreme environmental conditions and habitat discontinuity on its genetic composition. The results indicate high levels of haplotype diversity and low values of nucleotide diversity. COI data provide evidence of significant population differentiation among some localities within the lagoon. Limited gene flow and unstable population dynamics (i.e. fluctuations in population size caused by local extinction and recolonization), probably due to the high environmental heterogeneity, could generate the small-scale genetic divergence detected between populations within the lagoon.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Settlement geography of African refugee communities in Southeast Queensland : an analysis of residential distribution and secondary migration

Before 2001, most Africans immigrating to Australia were white South Africans and Zimbabweans who arrived as economic and family-reunion migrants (Cox, Cooper & Adepoju, 1999). Black African communities are a more recent addition to the Australian landscape, with most entering Australia as refugees after 2001. African refugees are a particularly disadvantaged immigrant group, which the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs (in the Community Relations Commission of New South Wales, 2006) suggests require high levels of settlement support (p.23). Decision makers and settlement service providers need to have settlement data on the communities so that they can be effective in planning, budgeting and delivering support where it is most needed. Settlement data are also useful for determining the challenges that these communities face in trying to establish themselves in resettlement. There has been no verification of existing secondary data sources, however, or previous formal study of African refugee settlement geography in Southeast Queensland. This research addresses the knowledge gap by using a mixed-method approach to identify and describe the distribution and population size of eight African communities in Southeast Queensland, examine secondary migration patterns in these communities and assess the relationship between these geographic features and housing, a critical factor in successful settlement. Significant discrepancies exist between the primary data gathered in the study and existing secondary data relating to population size and distribution of the communities. Results also reveal a tension between the socio-cultural forces and the housing and economic imperatives driving secondary migration in the communities, and a general lack of engagement by African refugees with structured support networks. These findings have a wide range of implications for policy and for groups that provide settlement support to these communities.

Optimisation of a class of transportation problems using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a Genetic Algorithms (GA) approach to search the optimized path for a class of transportation problems. The formulation of the problems for suitable application of GA will be discussed. Exchanging genetic information in the sense of neighborhoods will be introduced for generation reproduction. The performance of the GA will be evaluated by computer simulation. The proposed algorithm use simple coding with population size 1 converged in reasonable optimality within several minutes.

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

The seasonal phenology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Queensland

Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous fruit fly, originally endemic to tropical and subtropical coastal eastern Australia, but now also widely distributed in temperate eastern Australia. In temperate parts of its range, B. tryoni populations show distinct seasonal peaks driven by changing seasonal climates, especially changing temperature. In contrast to temperate areas, the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni in subtropical and tropical parts of its range is poorly documented and the role of climate unknown. Using a large, historical (1940s and 1950s) fruit fly trapping data set, we present the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni at nine sites across Queensland for multiple (two to seven) years per site. We correlate monthly trap data for each site with monthly weather averages (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) to investigate climatic influences. We also correlate observed population data with predicted population data generated by an existing B. tryoni population model. Supporting predictions from climate driven models, B. tryoni did show year-round breeding at most Queensland sites. However, contrary to predictions, there was a common pattern of a significant population decline in autumn and winter, followed by a rapid population increase in August and then one or more distinct peaks of abundance in spring and summer. Mean monthly fly abundance was significantly different across sites, but was not correlated with altitudinal, latitudinal or longitudinal gradients. There were very few significant correlations between monthly fly population size and weather variables for eight of the nine sites. For the southern site of Gatton fly population abundance was correlated with temperature. Results suggest that while climate factors may be influencing B. tryoni populations in southern subtropical Queensland, they appear to be having only minor or no influence in northern sub-tropical and tropical Queensland. In the discussion we focus on the role of other factors, particularly larval host plant availability, as likely drivers of B. tryoni abundance in tropical and subtropical parts of its range.

Positive correlation of male and female Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) catches in orange-ammonia traps

Populations of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, are routinely monitored using cue-lure, a male-only attractant. Such monitoring provides no information about females and there is little information available to show if male and female B. tryoni numbers are correlated in the field. Using a data set of 1 148 weekly clearances of orange-ammonia baited traps, which catch both males and females, the correlation between male and female numbers was tested for 48 weeks of the year (four weeks each month) and for the combined data set. Weekly male and female trap catches were almost entirely highly correlated, regardless of mean population size or time of year. For the whole year, the correlation between male and female numbers was r = 0.722, significant at p<0.001. Results suggest that changes in the number if male B. tryoni, as detected through cue-lure sampling, will reflect changes in numbers of female B. tryoni.

Mapping Australia's philanthropic investment in women and girls

The Australian Women Donors Network (Women Donors) partnered the Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (ACPNS) at QUT to conduct this research. No studies exist on the size or sources of philanthropic giving in Australia directed intentionally towards the needs of women and girls. The survey aims to fill this knowledge gap and create a baseline for understanding trends and views in this area. Because the survey treads some new ground, its findings raise questions as well as giving answers. Encouragingly, 100 people from across the philanthropy spectrum completed the survey, embracing 41 individual donors and other respondents from various foundation types. Given the population difference, this response compares well with the 145 respondents to the USA-based Foundation Center’s 2009 European study (reported in 2011). The survey was designed for givers generally, not just those involved in giving to women and girls specifically. It is possible, though, that people with an interest in funding this area were more likely to participate. This potential oversampling may inflate the figures on funding women and girls to some degree. Also, because the population size of Australian philanthropists is unknown, no claims can be made that this information is generalizable to all Australian funders. Nonetheless, some patterns and themes emerge from the 100 responses.

Development and characterisation of tri- and tetra-nucleotide polymorphic microsatellite markers for skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis)

Skipjack tuna (katsuwonus pelamis) (SJT) is the largest tuna fishery in all the major oceans around the world, and the largest marine fishery in Sri Lanka. Knowledge of genetic population structure and effective population size of SJT in the Indian Ocean and other major oceans, however, is still lacking for better management practices and conservation strategies. We developed microsatellite genetic markers using SJT around Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, and characterise one tri- and seven tetra-nucleotide microsatellite loci isolated from enriched genomic libraries from SJT, to provide tools for addressing both conservation and fisheries management questions. An analysis of these eight microsatellite markers in two populations of SJT from eastern Sri Lanka (n = 44) and the Maldives Islands (n = 53) showed that all eight microsatellites were polymorphic with an average number of alleles per locus of 11.80 (range 5-27). Expected heterozygosities at marker loci ranged from 0.450 to 0.961. These markers are being used currently to characterise population structure and extent of natural gene flow in SJT populations from the eastern and western Indian Ocean. No significant linkage disequilibrium was detected among any loci pairs.

Adaptive sizing of populations and number of islands in distributed genetic algorithms

Deciding the appropriate population size and number of is- lands for distributed island-model genetic algorithms is often critical to the algorithm’s success. This paper outlines a method that automatically searches for good combinations of island population sizes and the number of islands. The method is based on a race between competing parameter sets, and collaborative seeding of new parameter sets. This method is applicable to any problem, and makes distributed genetic algorithms easier to use by reducing the number of user-set parameters. The experimental results show that the proposed method robustly and reliably finds population and islands settings that are comparable to those found with traditional trial-and-error approaches.

Prediction of multilocus identity-by-descent

Previous studies have enabled exact prediction of probabilities of identity-by-descent (IBD) in randommating populations for a few loci (up to four or so), with extension to more using approximate regression methods. Here we present a precise predictor of multiple-locus IBD using simple formulas based on exact results for two loci. In particular, the probability of non-IBD X ABC at each of ordered loci A, B, and C can be well approximated by XABC = XABXBC/XB and generalizes to X123. . .k = X12X23. . .Xk-1,k/ Xk-2, where X is the probability of non-IBD at each locus. Predictions from this chain rule are very precise with population bottlenecks and migration, but are rather poorer in the presence of mutation. From these coefficients, the probabilities of multilocus IBD and non-IBD can also be computed for genomic regions as functions of population size, time, and map distances. An approximate but simple recurrence formula is also developed, which generally is less accurate than the chain rule but is more robust with mutation. Used together with the chain rule it leads to explicit equations for non-IBD in a region. The results can be applied to detection of quantitative trait loci (QTL) by computing the probability of IBD at candidate loci in terms of identity-by-state at neighboring markers.

On the prediction of simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at multiple loci

A new deterministic method for predicting simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at three and four loci is presented. The method involves calculating the conditional probability of IBD (identical by descent) at one locus given IBD at other loci, and multiplying this probability by the prior probability of the latter loci being simultaneously IBD. The conditional probability is obtained applying a novel regression model, and the prior probability from the theory of digenic measures of Weir and Cockerham. The model was validated for a finite monoecious population mating at random, with a constant effective population size, and with or without selfing, and also for an infinite population with a constant intermediate proportion of selfing. We assumed discrete generations. Deterministic predictions were very accurate when compared with simulation results, and robust to alternative forms of implementation. These simultaneous inbreeding coefficients were more sensitive to changes in effective population size than in marker spacing. Extensions to predict simultaneous inbreeding coefficients at more than four loci are now possible.

Imported Dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous Dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.