The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inferring population connectivity across the range of distribution of the stiletto shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda, Penaeidae) from DNA barcoding: implications for fishery management

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population Growth of Antarctic Fur Seals: Limitation by a Top Predator, The Leopard Seal?

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) in the South Shetland Islands are recovering from 19th-century exploitation more slowly than the main population at South Georgia. To document demographic changes associated with the recovery in the South Shetlands, we monitored fur seal abundance and reproduction in the vicinity of Elephant Island during austral summers from 1986/1987 through 1994/1995. Total births, mean and variance of birth dates, and average daily mortality rates were estimated from daily live pup counts at North Cove (NC) and North Annex (NA) colonies on Seal Island. Sightings of leopard seals (Hydrurga leptonyx) and incidents of leopard seal predation on fur seal pups were recorded opportunistically during daily fur seal research at both sites. High mortality of fur seal pups, attributed to predation by leopard seals frequently observed at NC, caused pup numbers to decline rapidly between January and March (i.e., prior to weaning) each year and probably caused a long-term decline in the size of that colony. The NA colony, where leopard seals were never observed, increased in size during the study. Pup mortality from causes other than leopard seal predation appeared to be similar at the two sites. The number of pups counted at four locations in the Elephant Island vicinity increased slowly, at an annual rate of 3.8%, compared to rates as high as 11% at other locations in the South Shetland Islands. Several lines of circumstantial evidence are consistent with the hypothesis that leopard seal predators limit the growth of the fur seal population in the Elephant Island area and perhaps in the broader population in the South Shetland Islands. The sustained growth of this fur seal population over many decades rules out certain predator–prey models, allowing inference about the interaction between leopard seals and fur seals even though it is less thoroughly studied than predator–prey systems of terrestrial vertebrates of the northern hemisphere. Top-down forces should be included in hypotheses for future research on the factors shaping the recovery of the fur seal population in the South Shetland Islands.

Killer Whale Predation on Belugas in Cook Inlet, Alaska: Implications for a Depleted Population

Killer whale predation on belugas in Cook Inlet, Alaska, has become a concern since the decline of these belugas was documented during the 1990s. Accordingly, killer whale sightings were compiled from systematic surveys, observer databases, and anecdotal accounts. Killer whales have been relatively common in lower Cook Inlet (at least 100 sightings from 1975 to 2002), but in the upper Inlet, north of Kalgin Island, sightings were infrequent (18 in 27 yr), especially prior to the 1990s. Beach cast beluga carcasses with teeth marks and missing flesh also provided evidence of killer whale predation. Most observed killer whale/beluga interactions were in the upper Inlet. During 11 of 15 observed interactions, belugas were obviously injured or killed, either through direct attacks or indirectly as a result of stranding. Assuming at least one beluga mortality occurred during the other four encounters, we can account for 21 belugas killed between 1985 and 2002. This would suggest a minimum estimate of roughly l/yr and does not include at least three instances where beluga calves accompanied an adult that was attacked.

Observations on a Cyclic Decline of Lemmings (Lemmus) on the Arctic Coast of Alaska during the Spring of 1949

The importance to the biotic community of various species of lemmings in arctic and subarctic regions has long been recognized, but there is little known about the ecology of these mammals. of the two species that occur on the Arctic Slope of Alaska, namely, the collared lemming, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus rubricatus (Richardson), and the brown lemming, Lemmus trimucronatus alascensis Merriam, during the spring of 1949 the writer had the good fortune to observe a cyclic decline in the population of the brown lemming on the Arctic Coast of Alaska. Observations were made during the peak density preceding this decline and were continued for more than a year subsequent to it. It is the purpose of this paper to present the results of these studies.

Decline in dental caries among 12-year-old children in Brazil, 1980-2005

Objectives This study was conducted to determine changes in values on the decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) index in 12-year-old children in Brazil between 1980 and 2005, and to correlate DMFT values with human development index (HDI) values, time, population size of municipality and fluoridation of the water supply. Methods The present study represents a retrospective ecological study using secondary data from epidemiological surveys published in indexed journals, as well as data obtained from epidemiological official surveys carried out in Brazil in 1986, 1996 and 2003, and in the State of Sao Paulo in 1998 and 2002. Units of study were represented by Brazilian municipalities holding average DMFT index values for 12-year-old children. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the correlations among DMFT and HDI values, and time, population size and fluoridation of the water supply. Results The final database included 550 records of DMFT values in 428 different towns. Regression analysis showed statistically significant correlations between DMFT index values and time (P < 0.001), fluoridation of the water supply (P < 0.001) and size of municipality (P < 0.001). Estimated mean DMFT index values were 8.36 in 1980, 6.08 in 1985, 4.45 in 1990, 3.29 in 1995, 2.46 in 2000 and 1.86 in 2005. Conclusions Data showed a significant decrease in dental caries across the entire country, with an average reduction of 25% occurring every 5 years. General trends indicated that a reduction in DMFT index values occurred over time, that a further reduction in DMFT index values occurred when a municipality fluoridated its water supply, and mean DMFT index values were lower in larger than in smaller municipalities.

Assessment of the population structure and temporal changes in spatial dynamics and genetic characteristics of the Atlantic bluefin tuna under a fishery independent framework.

As a large and long-lived species with high economic value, restricted spawning areas and short spawning periods, the Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is particularly susceptible to over-exploitation. Although BFT have been targeted by fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea for thousands of years, it has only been in these last decades that the exploitation rate has reached far beyond sustainable levels. An understanding of the population structure, spatial dynamics, exploitation rates and the environmental variables that affect BFT is crucial for the conservation of the species. The aims of this PhD project were 1) to assess the accuracy of larval identification methods, 2) determine the genetic structure of modern BFT populations, 3) assess the self-recruitment rate in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean spawning areas, 4) estimate the immigration rate of BFT to feeding aggregations from the various spawning areas, and 5) develop tools capable of investigating the temporal stability of population structuring in the Mediterranean Sea. Several weaknesses in modern morphology-based taxonomy including demographic decline of expert taxonomists, flawed identification keys, reluctance of the taxonomic community to embrace advances in digital communications and a general scarcity of modern user-friendly materials are reviewed. Barcoding of scombrid larvae revealed important differences in the accuracy of the taxonomic identifications carried out by different ichthyoplanktologists following morphology-based methods. Using a Genotyping-by-Sequencing a panel of 95 SNPs was developed and used to characterize the population structuring of BFT and composition of adult feeding aggregations. Using novel molecular techniques, DNA was extracted from bluefin tuna vertebrae excavated from late iron age, ancient roman settlements Byzantine-era Constantinople and a 20th century collection. A second panel of 96 SNPs was developed to genotype historical and modern samples in order to elucidate changes in population structuring and allele frequencies of loci associated with selective traits.

Population doublings and percentage of S100-positive cells as predictors of in vitro chondrogenicity of expanded human articular chondrocytes

The aim of this study was to investigate the interconnection between the processes of proliferation, dedifferentiation, and intrinsic redifferentiation (chondrogenic) capacities of human articular chondrocyte (HAC), and to identify markers linking HAC dedifferentiation status with their chondrogenic potential. Cumulative population doublings (PD) of HAC expanded in monolayer culture were determined, and a threshold range of 3.57-4.19 PD was identified as indicative of HAC loss of intrinsic chondrogenic capacity in pellets incubated without added chondrogenic factors. While several specific gene and surface markers defined early HAC dedifferentiation process, no clear correlation with the loss of intrinsic chondrogenic potential could be established. CD90 expression during HAC monolayer culture revealed two subpopulations, with sorted CD90-negative cells showing lower proliferative capacity and higher chondrogenic potential compared to CD90-positive cells. Although these data further validated PD as critical for in vitro chondrogenesis, due to the early shift in expression, CD90 could not be considered for predicting chondrogenic potential of HAC expanded for several weeks. In contrast, an excellent mathematically modeled correlation was established between PD and the decline of HAC expressing the intracellular marker S100, providing a direct link between the number of cell divisions and dedifferentiation/loss of intrinsic chondrogenic capacity. Based on the dynamics of S100-positive HAC during expansion, we propose asymmetric cell division as a potential mechanism of HAC dedifferentiation, and S100 as a marker to assess chondrogenicity of HAC during expansion, of potential value for cell-based cartilage repair treatments.

The precipitous decline of the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana: time to build on scientific evidence to inform conservation management

In recent decades there has been a marked decline in most ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana populations in temperate Europe, with many regional populations now extinct or on the brink of extinction. In contrast, Mediterranean and, as far as we know, eastern European popula-tions seem to have remained relatively stable. The causes of decline remain unclear but include: habitat loss and degradation, and related reduction in prey availability; climate change on the breeding grounds; altered population dynamics; illegal captures during migration; and environmental change in wintering areas. We review the current knowledge of the biology of the ortolan bunting and discuss the proposed causes of decline in relation to the different population trends in temperate and Mediterranean Europe. We suggest new avenues of research to identify the factors limiting ortolan bunting populations. The main evidence-based conservation measure that is likely to enhance habitat quality is the creation of patches of bare ground to produce sparsely vegetated foraging grounds in invertebrate-rich grassy habitats close to breeding areas.

Collagen response and glycoprotein VI function decline progressively as canine platelets age in vivo

Clinical and experimental observations suggest that platelet function deteriorates quickly with cell age. However, efforts to define age-dependent alterations have detected only modest biochemical changes occurring late in the cell life span. In this report, we demonstrate two significant alterations of the collagen response occurring during in vivo aging of canine platelets: a progressive increase in the EC50 for collagen types I, III and V and the emergence of a population of aged platelets which are refractory to collagen. Experiments with convulxin, a specific agonist for the collagen receptor glycoprotein VI (GPVI), also demonstrate an age-dependent decline in activation and the appearance of a non-reactive, aged population as observed with native collagens. Our studies indicate that canine platelets have two distinct binding levels for FITC-labeled convulxin and that the higher binding level disappears upon cell aging. During these studies one dog (#428) was identified whose platelets not only failed to demonstrate an age-dependent decrease in convulxin reactivity but also maintained a high convulxin-binding ability throughout their otherwise normal life span. Transfusion of biotinylated platelets from control dogs into dog #428 showed that the expected changes in collagen response and GPVI function did not occur in the transfused platelets. These observations demonstrate that the canine platelet response towards collagen is strongly dependent upon cell-age and suggest that this functional decline is at least partly due to an extrinsic-mediated alteration, possibly proteolytic, of GPVI.

A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation.

Serotype epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in Swiss adults: A nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND In Switzerland, the heptavalent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) were recommended for all infants aged <2 years in 2007 and 2011, respectively. Due to herd effects, a protective impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates in adults had been expected. METHODS Within this study, data from the nationwide mandatory surveillance was analyzed for all adult patients ≥16 years with IPD of known serotype/serogroup during 2003-2012. Trend (for IPD cases from 2003 to 2012) and logistic regression analyses (2007-2010) were performed to identify changes in serotype distribution and to identify the association of serotypes with age, clinical manifestations, comorbidities and case fatality, respectively. FINDINGS The proportion of PCV7 serotypes among all IPD cases (n=7678) significantly declined in adults from 44.7% (2003) before to 16.7% (2012) after the recommendation of PCV7 (P<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of non-PCV7 serogroup/serotypes increased for non-PCV13 but also PCV13 serotypes (not included in PCV7) at the same time. Serotype distribution varied significantly across ages, clinical manifestations and comorbidities. Serotype was furthermore associated with case fatality (P=0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, analyzing single serotypes showed that case-fatality was increased for the serotypes 3 (P=0.008), 19A (P=0.03) and 19F (P=0.005), compared to serotype 1 and 7F. CONCLUSION There was a significant decline in PCV7 serotypes among adults with IPD in Switzerland after introduction of childhood vaccination with PCV7. Pneumococcal serotypes were associated with case fatality, age, clinical manifestation and comorbidities of IPD in adults. These results may prove useful for future vaccine recommendations for adults in Switzerland.

The First Density Estimation of an Isolated Eurasian Lynx Population in Southwest Asia

During November 2010–February 2011, we used camera traps to estimate the population density of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in Ciglikara Nature Reserve, Turkey, an isolated population in southwest Asia. Lynx density was calculated through spatial capture—recapture models. In a sampling eff ort of 1093 camera trap days, we identifi ed 15 independent individuals and estimated a density of 4.20 independent lynx per 100 km2, an unreported high density for this species. Camera trap results also indicated that the lynx is likely to be preying on brown hare Lepus europaeus, which accounted for 63% of the non-target species pictured. As lagomorph populations tend to fl uctuate, the high lynx density recorded in Ciglikara may be temporary and may decline with prey fl uctuation. Therefore we recommend to survey other protected areas in southwestern Turkey where lynx is known or assumed to exist, and continuously monitor the lynx populations with reliable methods in order to understand the populations structure and dynamics, defi ne sensible measures and management plans to conserve this important species.

Hypertension and cognitive decline among patients of Alzheimer's disease

Objective. The main aim of our study is to assess the effect of hypertension on the decline in cognitive impairment among Alzheimer’s patients. Methods. We analyzed the data of AD patients enrolled in Baylor ADMDC in a prospective study design. We divided AD patients into two groups based on the definition of hypertension. We described a decline in cognitive impairment as a change of 5 points in mini-mental state examination score (MMSE) from the baseline visit. Results. Independent of covariates, AD patients with hypertension did not exhibit a significant decline in cognitive impairment after adjustment of covariates, age, race and education (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.07, p value 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.84-1.39) than AD patients without hypertension. In addition, AD patients with hypertension did not experience decline in cognitive impairment sooner than AD patients without hypertension. (P value 0.83). Conclusions . Hypertension is not associated with cognitive impairment over time among patients with Alzheimer’s disease enrolled in Baylor ADMDC after other potential confounders were taken into account. These findings should not be interpreted as a basis for discouraging appropriate medical treatment of hypertension in AD patients. Greater efforts should be made to improve the recognition of hypertension as a modifiable risk factor for decline in cognitive impairment in AD population. ^

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States

The 1982–1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors for chronic diseases show improvements, many linked to education, from 1910 to the present. Projections indicate the proportion of persons aged 85–89 with less than 8 years of education will decline from 65% in 1980 to 15% in 2015. Health and socioeconomic status trends are not directly represented in Medicare Trust Fund and Social Security Administration beneficiary projections. Thus, they may have different economic implications from projections directly accounting for health trends. A 1.5% annual disability decline keeps the support ratio (ratio of economically active persons aged 20–64 to the number of chronically disabled persons aged 65+) above its 1994 value, 22:1, when the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund was in fiscal balance, to 2070. With no changes in disability, projections indicate a support ratio in 2070 of 8:1—63% below a cash flow balance.