Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Novel concepts for a planetary surface exploration rover

Purpose - This paper aims to address some of the needs of present and upcoming rover designs, and introduces novel concepts incorporated in a planetary surface exploration rover design that is currently under development. Design/methodology/approach - The Multitasking Rover (MTR) is a highly re-configurable system that aims to demonstrate functionality that will cover many of the current and future needs such as rough-terrain mobility, modularity and upgradeability. It comprises a surface mobility platform which is highly re-configurable, which offers centre of mass re-allocation and rough terrain stability, and also a set of science/tool packs - individual subsystems encapsulated in packs which the rover picks up, transports and deploys. Findings - Early testing of the suspension system suggests exceptional performance characteristics. Originality/value - Principles employed in the design of the MTR can be used in future rover systems to reduce associated mission costs and at the same time provide multiples the functionality.

Fireballs, flares, and flickering: A semianalytic, LTE, explosive model from accretion disks to supernovae

We derive simple analytic expressions for the continuum light curves and spectra of flaring and flickering events that occur over a wide range of astrophysical systems. We compare these results to data taken from the cataclysmic variable SS Cygni and also from SN 1987A, deriving physical parameters for the material involved. Fits to the data indicate a nearly time-independent photospheric temperature arising from the strong temperature dependence of opacity when hydrogen is partially ionized.

Examining the predictability of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems

The first multi-model study to estimate the predictability of a boreal Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is performed using five NWP systems. During the 2012-2013 boreal winter, anomalous upward propagating planetary wave activity was observed towards the end of December, which followed by a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation around 2 January 2013, and on 7 January 2013 the zonal mean zonal wind at 60°N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly. This stratospheric dynamical activity was followed by an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet stream and by a high pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic, which resulted in severe cold conditions in the UK and Northern Europe. In most of the five models, the SSW event was predicted 10 days in advance. However, only some ensemble members in most of the models predicted weakening of westerly wind when the models were initialized 15 days in advance of the SSW. Further dynamical analysis of the SSW shows that this event was characterized by the anomalous planetary wave-1 amplification followed by the anomalous wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere, which resulted in a split vortex occurring between 6 January 2013 and 8 January 2013. The models have some success in reproducing wave-1 activity when initialized 15 days in advance, they but generally failed to produce the wave-2 activity during the final days of the event. Detailed analysis shows that models have reasonably good skill in forecasting tropospheric blocking features that stimulate wave-2 amplification in the troposphere, but they have limited skill in reproducing wave-2 amplification in the stratosphere.

PLANETARY NEBULAE AND THE CHEMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE MAGELLANIC CLOUDS

The determination of accurate chemical abundances of planetary nebulae (PN) in different galaxies allows us to obtain important constraints on chemical evolution models for these systems. We have a long-term program to derive abundances in the galaxies of the Local Group, particularly the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds. In this work, we present our new results on these objects and discuss their implications in view of recent abundance determinations in the literature. In particular, we obtain distance-independent correlations involving He, N, O, Ne, S, and Ar, and compare the results with data from our own Galaxy and other galaxies in the Local Group. As a result of our observational program, we have a large database of PN in the Galaxy and the Magellanic Clouds, so that we can obtain reliable constraints on the nucleosynthesis processes in the progenitor stars in galaxies of different metallicities.

Transdentinal diffusion and cytotoxicity of self-etching adhesive systems

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

In Vitro Antibacterial Activity of Adhesive Systems on Streptococcus Mutans

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Surface roughness of packable composite resins polished with various systems

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the surface roughness of four packable composite resins, SureFil™ (Dentsply, Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Prodigy Condensable™ (Kerr Co., Orange, CA, USA), Filtek P60™ (3M do Brasil, São Paulo, Brazil), and ALERT® (Jeneric/Pentron, Inc., Wallingford, CT, USA) and one microhybrid composite resin (Filtek Z250™, 3M do Brasil) after polishing with four finishing systems. Materials and Methods: Twenty specimens were made of each material (5 mm in diameter and 4 mm high) and were analyzed with a profilometer (Perthometer® S8P, Perthen, Mahr, Germany) to measure the mean surface roughness (Ra). The specimens were then divided into four groups according to the polishing system: group 1 - Sof-Lex™ (3M do Brasil), group 2 - Enhance™ (Dentsply), group 3 - Composite Finishing Kit (KG Sorensen, Barueri, São Paulo, Brazil), and group 4 - Jiffy Polisher Cups® (Ultradent Products, Inc., South Jordan, UT, USA). The specimens were polished and then evaluated for Ra, and the data were subjected to analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, and Tukey's test (p = .05). Results: The mean Ra of SureFil polished with Sof-Lex was significantly lower than that of KG points. Prodigy Condensable polished with Enhance showed a significantly less rough surface than when polished with Sof-Lex. Filtek P60 did not exhibit a significant difference with the various polishing systems. For ALERT the lowest mean Ra was obtained with Sof-Lex and the highest mean Ra with KG points. Regarding Filtek Z250, polishing with KG and Jiffy points resulted in a significantly lower mean Ra than when polished with Enhance. Conclusions: Packable composite resins display variable roughness depending on the polishing system used; the Sof-Lex disks and Jiffy points resulted in the best Ra values for the majority of the materials tested.

Nebular gas drag and planetary accretion with eccentric high-mass planets

Aims.We investigate the dynamics of pebbles immersed in a gas disk interacting with a planet on an eccentric orbit. The model has a prescribed gap in the disk around the location of the planetary orbit, as is expected for a giant planet with a mass in the range of 0.1-1 Jupiter masses. The pebbles with sizes in the range of 1 cm to 3 m are placed in a ring outside of the giant planet orbit at distances between 10 and 30 planetary Hill radii. The process of the accumulation of pebbles closer to the gap edge, its possible implication for the planetary accretion, and the importance of the mass and the eccentricity of the planet in this process are the motivations behind the present contribution. Methods. We used the Bulirsch-Stoer numerical algorithm, which is computationally consistent for close approaches, to integrate the Newtonian equations of the planar (2D), elliptical restricted three-body problem. The angular velocity of the gas disk was determined by the appropriate balance between the gravity, centrifugal, and pressure forces, such that it is sub-Keplerian in regions with a negative radial pressure gradient and super-Keplerian where the radial pressure gradient is positive. Results. The results show that there are no trappings in the 1:1 resonance around the L 4 and L5 Lagrangian points for very low planetary eccentricities (e2 < 0.07). The trappings in exterior resonances, in the majority of cases, are because the angular velocity of the disk is super-Keplerian in the gap disk outside of the planetary orbit and because the inward drift is stopped. Furthermore, the semi-major axis location of such trappings depends on the gas pressure profile of the gap (depth) and is a = 1.2 for a planet of 1 MJ. A planet on an eccentric orbit interacts with the pebble layer formed by these resonances. Collisions occur and become important for planetary eccentricity near the present value of Jupiter (e 2 = 0.05). The maximum rate of the collisions onto a planet of 0.1 MJ occurs when the pebble size is 37.5 cm ≤ s < 75 cm; for a planet with the mass of Jupiter, it is15 cm ≤ s < 30 cm. The accretion stops when the pebble size is less than 2 cm and the gas drag dominates the motion. © 2013 ESO.

Records of migration in the exoplanet configurations

When compared to our Solar System, many exoplanet systems exhibit quite unusual planet configurations; some of these are hot Jupiters, which orbit their central stars with periods of a few days, others are resonant systems composed of two or more planets with commensurable orbital periods. It has been suggested that these configurations can be the result of a migration processes originated by tidal interactions of the planets with disks and central stars. The process known as planet migration occurs due to dissipative forces which affect the planetary semi-major axes and cause the planets to move towards to, or away from, the central star. In this talk, we present possible signatures of planet migration in the distribution of the hot Jupiters and resonant exoplanet pairs. For this task, we develop a semi-analytical model to describe the evolution of the migrating planetary pair, based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Our approach is based on an analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces needs to be invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the stationary solutions of the conservative problem (Birkhoff, Dynamical systems, 1966). The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the roper frequencies of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states, and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Irradiated disks and planet population synthesis

Recent planet population synthesis models (Alibert et al. 2010, submitted) have emphasized the key role played by the proto-planetary disk properties in determining the overall planet population characteristics. We present a disk model that takes into account viscous heating and irradiation by a central star. We consider the case of an equilibrium flaring angle. We illustrate the consequences of the resulting changes in the disk structure on the planet population by the synthetic populations corresponding to each of the different structures.

The Science of Exoplanets and Their Systems

A scientific forum on “The Future Science of Exoplanets and Their Systems,” sponsored by Europlanet* and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI)† and co-organized by the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH)‡ of the University of Bern, was held during December 5 and 6, 2012, in Bern, Switzerland. It gathered 24 well-known specialists in exoplanetary, Solar System, and stellar science to discuss the future of the fast-expanding field of exoplanetary research, which now has nearly 1000 objects to analyze and compare and will develop even more quickly over the coming years. The forum discussions included a review of current observational knowledge, efforts for exoplanetary atmosphere characterization and their formation, water formation, atmospheric evolution, habitability aspects, and our understanding of how exoplanets interact with their stellar and galactic environment throughout their history. Several important and timely research areas of focus for further research efforts in the field were identified by the forum participants. These scientific topics are related to the origin and formation of water and its delivery to planetary bodies and the role of the disk in relation to planet formation, including constraints from observations as well as star-planet interaction processes and their consequences for atmosphere-magnetosphere environments, evolution, and habitability. The relevance of these research areas is outlined in this report, and possible themes for future ISSI workshops are identified that may be proposed by the international research community over the coming 2–3 years.

Thermal neutron capture effects in radioactive and stable nuclide systems

Neutron capture effects in meteorites and lunar surface samples have been successfully used in the past to study exposure histories and shielding conditions. In recent years, however, it turned out that neutron capture effects produce a nuisance for some of the short-lived radionuclide systems. The most prominent example is the 182Hf-182W system in iron meteorites, for which neutron capture effects lower the 182W/184W ratio, thereby producing too old apparent ages. Here, we present a thorough study of neutron capture effects in iron meteorites, ordinary chondrites, and carbonaceous chondrites, whereas the focus is on iron meteorites. We study in detail the effects responsible for neutron production, neutron transport, and neutron slowing down and find that neutron capture in all studied meteorite types is not, as usually expected, exclusively via thermal neutrons. In contrast, most of the neutron capture in iron meteorites is in the epithermal energy range and there is a significant contribution from epithermal neutron capture even in stony meteorites. Using sophisticated particle spectra and evaluated cross section data files for neutron capture reactions we calculate the neutron capture effects for Sm, Gd, Cd, Pd, Pt, and Os isotopes, which all can serve as neutron-dose proxies, either in stony or in iron meteorites. In addition, we model neutron capture effects in W and Ag isotopes. For W isotopes, the GCR-induced shifts perfectly correlate with Os and Pt isotope shifts, which therefore can be used as neutron-dose proxies and permit a reliable correction. We also found that GCR-induced effects for the 107Pd-107Ag system can be significant and need to be corrected, a result that is in contrast to earlier studies.

Gas composition of the main volatile elements in protoplanetary discs and its implication for planet formation

Context. Direct observations of gaseous exoplanets reveal that their gas envelope has a higher C/O ratio than that of the host star (e.g., Wasp 12-b). This has been explained by considering that the gas phase of the disc could be inhomogeneous, exceeding the stellar C/O ratio in regions where these planets formed; but few studies have considered the drift of the gas and planet migration. Aims. We aim to derive the gas composition in planets through planet formation to evaluate if the formation of giant planets with an enriched C/O ratio is possible. The study focusses on the effects of different processes on the C/O ratio, such as the disc evolution, the drift of gas, and planet migration. Methods. We used our previous models for computing the chemical composition, together with a planet formation model, to which we added the composition and drift of the gas phase of the disc, which is composed of the main volatile species H2O, CO, CO2, NH3, N2, CH3OH, CH4, and H2S, H2 and He. The study focusses on the region where ice lines are present and influence the C/O ratio of the planets. Results. Modelling shows that the condensation of volatile species as a function of radial distance allows for C/O enrichment in specific parts of the protoplanetary disc of up to four times the solar value. This leads to the formation of planets that can be enriched in C/O in their envelope up to three times the solar value. Planet migration, gas phase evolution and disc irradiation enables the evolution of the initial C/O ratio that decreases in the outer part of the disc and increases in the inner part of the disc. The total C/O ratio of the planets is governed by the contribution of ices accreted, suggesting that high C/O ratios measured in planetary atmospheres are indicative of a lack of exchange of material between the core of a planet and its envelope or an observational bias. It also suggests that the observed C/O ratio is not representative of the total C/O ratio of the planet.

Theoretical models of planetary system formation II. Post-formation evolution

Aims. We extend the results of planetary formation synthesis by computing the long-term evolution of synthetic systems from the clearing of the gas disk into the dynamical evolution phase. Methods. We use the symplectic integrator SyMBA to numerically integrate the orbits of planets for 100 Myr, using populations from previous studies as initial conditions. Results. We show that within the populations studied, mass and semimajor axis distributions experience only minor changes from post-formation evolution. We also show that, depending upon their initial distribution, planetary eccentricities can statistically increase or decrease as a result of gravitational interactions. We find that planetary masses and orbital spacings provided by planet formation models do not result in eccentricity distributions comparable to observed exoplanet eccentricities, requiring other phenomena, such as stellar fly-bys, to account for observed eccentricities.