Volatile and persistent real exchange rates with or without sticky prices

The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of persistent substance misuse on 1-year outcome in first-episode psychosis

Background: Substance misuse is a common comorbid problem in people presenting with first-episode psychosis and is associated with a poor short-term outcome.

Aims: The aim of this study is to examine differences in baseline characteristics and 1-year outcome between individuals with first-episode psychosis who have never misused substances, those who stop misusing substances after initial presentation and those who persistently misuse substances over the 1-year assessment period.

Method: Patients were recruited to the Northern Ireland First Episode Psychosis Study (n=272). Clinical assessments were performed at baseline and at 1 year (n=194) and data were collected from the case notes.

Results: Individuals with persistent substance misuse had more severe depression, more positive symptoms, poorer functional outcome and greater rates of relapse at 1 year than those who stopped and those who had never misused substances. There were no differences in outcome between people who had never misused substances and those who stopped misusing after presentation.

Conclusions: These results support assertive intervention targeted at comorbid substance misuse in individuals with first-episode psychosis.

Persistent measles virus infection of mouse neural cells lacking known human entry receptors

Aims: Infection of the mouse central nervous system with wild type (WT) and vaccine strains of measles virus (MV) results in lack of clinical signs and limited antigen detection. It is considered that cell entry receptors for these viruses are not present on murine neural cells and infection is restricted at cell entry.

Methods: To examine this hypothesis, virus antigen and caspase 3 expression (for apoptosis) was compared in primary mixed, neural cell cultures infected in vitro or prepared from mice infected intracerebrally with WT, vaccine or rodent neuroadapted viruses. Viral RNA levels were examined in mouse brain by nested and real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.

Results: WT and vaccine strains were demonstrated for the first time to infect murine oligodendrocytes in addition to neurones despite a lack of the known MV cell receptors. Unexpectedly, the percentage of cells positive for viral antigen was higher for WT MV than neuroadapted virus in both in vitro and ex vivo cultures. In the latter the percentage of positive cells increased with time after mouse infection. Viral RNA (total and mRNA) was detected in brain for up to 20 days, while cultures were negative for caspase 3 in WT and vaccine virus infections.

Conclusions: WT and vaccine MV strains can use an endogenous cell entry receptor(s) or alternative virus uptake mechanism in murine neural cells. However, viral replication occurs at a low level and is associated with limited apoptosis. WT MV mouse infection may provide a model for the initial stages of persistent MV human central nervous system infections.

Discretization of highly persistent correlated AR(1) shocks

The finite state Markov-chain approximation methods developed by Tauchen (1986) and Tauchen and Hussey (1991) are widely used in economics, finance and econometrics to solve functional equations in which state variables follow autoregressive processes. For highly persistent processes, the methods require a large number of discrete values for the state variables to produce close approximations which leads to an undesirable reduction in computational speed, especially in a multivariate case. This paper proposes an alternative method of discretizing multivariate autoregressive processes. This method can be treated as an extension of Rouwenhorst's (1995) method which, according to our finding, outperforms the existing methods in the scalar case for highly persistent processes. The new method works well as an approximation that is much more robust to the number of discrete values for a wide range of the parameter space.

Creation of persistent, straight, 2 mm long laser driven channels in underdense plasmas

The experimental study of the behavior of deuterium plasma with densities between 2 X 1018 and 2 x 10(20) cm(-3), subjected to a 6 TW, 30 ps, 3 X 10(18) W cm(-2) laser pulse, is presented Conclusive experimental proof that a single straight channel is generated when the laser pulse interacts with the lowest densities is provided This channel shows no small-scale longitudinal density modulations, extends up to 2 mm in length and persists for up to 150 ps after the peak of the interaction Bifurcation of the channel after 1 mm propagation distance is observed for the first time For higher density interactions, above the relativistic self-focusing threshold, bubblelike structures are observed to form at late times These observations have implications for both laser wakefield accelerators and fast ignition inertial fusion studies (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics [doi 10 1063/1 3505305]

Persistent Inflammation Subverts Thrombospondin-1–Induced Regulation of Retinal Angiogenesis and Is Driven by CCR2 Ligation

Neovascular retinal disease is a leading cause of blindness orchestrated by inflammatory responses. Although noninfectious uveoretinitis is mediated by CD4(+) T cells, in the persistent phase of disease, angiogenic responses are observed, along with degeneration of the retina. Full clinical manifestation relies on myeloid-derived cells, which are phenotypically distinct from, but potentially sharing common effector responses to age-related macular degeneration. To interrogate inflammation-mediated angiogenesis, we investigated experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis, an animal model for human uveitis. After the initial acute phase of severe inflammation, the retina sustains a persistent low-grade inflammation with tissue-infiltrating leukocytes for over 4 months. During this persistent phase, angiogenesis is observed as retinal neovascular membranes that arise from inflamed venules and postcapillary venules, increase in size as the disease progresses, and are associated with infiltrating arginase-1(+) macrophages. In the absence of thrombospondin-1, retinal neovascular membranes are markedly increased and are associated with arginase-1(-) CD68(+) macrophages, whereas deletion of the chemokine receptor CCR2 resulted in reduced retinal neovascular membranes in association with a predominant neutrophil infiltrate. CCR2 is important for macrophage recruitment to the retina in experimental autoimmune uveoretinitis and promotes chronicity in the form of a persistent angiogenesis response, which in turn is regulated by constitutive expression of angiogenic inhibitors like thrombospondin-1. This model offers a new platform to dissect the molecular and cellular pathology of inflammation-induced ocular angiogenesis.

Persistent negative effects of pesticides on biodiversity and biological control potential on European farmland

During the last 50 years, agricultural intensification has caused many wild plant and animal species to go extinct regionally or nationally and has profoundly changed the functioning of agro-ecosystems. Agricultural intensification has many components, such as loss of landscape elements, enlarged farm and field sizes and larger inputs of fertilizer and pesticides. However, very little is known about the relative contribution of these variables to the large-scale negative effects on biodiversity. In this study, we disentangled the impacts of various components of agricultural intensification on species diversity of wild plants, carabids and ground-nesting farmland birds and on the biological control of aphids.

The Respiratory Syncytial Virus G Protein Conserved Domain Induces a Persistent and Protective Antibody Response in Rodents

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of severe upper and lower respiratory disease in infants and in the elderly. There are 2 main RSV subtypes A and B. A recombinant vaccine was designed based on the central domain of the RSV-A attachment G protein which we had previously named G2Na (aa130–230). Here we evaluated immunogenicity, persistence of antibody (Ab) response and protective efficacy induced in rodents by: (i) G2Na fused to DT (Diphtheria toxin) fragments in cotton rats. DT fusion did not potentiate neutralizing Ab responses against RSV-A or cross-reactivity to RSV-B. (ii) G2Nb (aa130–230 of the RSV-B G protein) either fused to, or admixed with G2Na. G2Nb did not induce RSV-B-reactive Ab responses. (iii) G2Na at low doses. Two injections of 3 µg G2Na in Alum were sufficient to induce protective immune responses in mouse lungs, preventing RSV-A and greatly reducing RSV-B infections. In cotton rats, G2Na-induced RSV-reactive Ab and protective immunity against RSV-A challenge that persisted for at least 24 weeks. (iv) injecting RSV primed mice with a single dose of G2Na/Alum or G2Na/PLGA [poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide]. Despite the presence of pre-existing RSV-specific Abs, these formulations effectively boosted anti-RSV Ab titres and increased Ab titres persisted for at least 21 weeks. Affinity maturation of these Abs increased from day 28 to day 148. These data indicate that G2Na has potential as a component of an RSV vaccine formulation.

Modelling the cycling of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system: Fluxes, loading, seasonality, trends

The fate and cycling of two selected POPs is investigated for the North Sea system with an improved version of a fate and transport ocean model (FANTOM). The model uses atmospheric data from the EMEP MSC East POP model (Gusev et al., 2009), giving reasonable concentrations and seasonal distributions for the entire region, as opposed to the three observation stations that Ilyina et al. (2006) were limited to. Other model improvements include changes in the calculation of POP exchange between the water column and sediment.

We chose to simulate the fate of two POPs with very different properties, ?-HCH and PCB 153. Since the fate and cycling of POPs are strongly affected by hydrodynamic processes, a high resolution version of the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) was developed and utilised. Simulations were made for the period 1996–2005. Both models were validated by comparing results with available data, which showed that the simulations were of very satisfactory quality.

Model results show that the North Sea is a net sink for ?-HCH and a net source to the atmosphere of PCB 153. Total masses of ?-HCH and PCB 153 in 2005 are reduced to 30% and 50%, respectively, of 1996 values.

Storms resuspending bottom sediments into the water column mobilise POPs into the atmosphere and have the potential to deliver substantial loads of these POPs into Europe.

Persistent income poverty and deprivation in the European Union: An analysis of the first three waves of the European Community Household Panel

Poverty research has increasingly focused on persistent income poverty, both as a crucial social indicator and as a target for policy intervention. Such an approach can lead to an identification of a sub-set of poor individuals facing particularly adverse circumstances and/or distinctive problems in escaping from poverty. Here we seek to establish whether, in comparison with cross-sectional measures, persistent poverty measures also provide a better measure of exclusion from a minimally acceptable way of life and relate with other important variables in a logical fashion. Our analysis draws upon the first three waves of the ECHP and shows that a persistent poverty measure does constitute a significant improvement over its cross-sectional counterpart in the explanation of levels of deprivation. Persistent poverty is related to life-style deprivation in a manner that comes close to being uniform across countries. The measure of persistence also conforms to our expectations of how a poverty measure should behave in that, unlike relative income poverty lines, defining the threshold level more stringently enables us to identify progressively groups of increasingly deprived respondents. Overall the persistent poverty measure constitutes a significant advance on cross-sectional income measures. However, there is clearly a great deal relating to the process of accumulation and of erosion of resources, which is not fully captured in the persistent poverty measure. In the absence of such information, there is a great deal to be said for making use of both types of indictors in formulating and evaluating policies while we continue to improve our understanding of longer-term processes.

Multiple deprivation and persistent poverty in the European Union

The literature on Social exclusion has focused attention on the processes leading to exposure to multiple disadvantage. Despite the influence this perspective has had on both academic and policy discussions, conceptual analysis has remained imprecise and empirical evidence modest. We have made use of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) in order to examine the extent to which persistent income poverty results in multiple deprivation. Our analysis shows that only a modest proportion of the persistently poor can he characterized as being exposed to such deprivation. While persistent poverty and multiple deprivation combine to produce extremely high levels of economic strain, there is no evidence that they interact in a significant fashion. We argue that understanding deprivation is not facilitated by focusing on a cleavage between a multiply deprived minority and a comfortable majority, and we consider the policy implications of this argument.

Persistent and consistent poverty in the 1994 and 1995 waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey

This paper focuses on the mismatch between income and deprivation measures of poverty. Using the first two waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey, a measure of relative deprivation is constructed and the overlap between the relative income poor and relatively deprived is examined, There is very limited overlap with the lowest relative income threshold. The overlap increases as the income threshold is raised, but it remains true that less than half those below the 60 percent relative income line are among the most deprived. Relative deprivation is shown to be related to the persistence of income poverty, but also to a range of other resource and need factors. Income and deprivation measures each contain information that can profitably be employed to enhance our understanding of poverty and a range of other social phenomena. This is illustrated by the manner in which both income poverty and relative deprivation are associated with self-reported difficulty making ends meet.

Demarcation laser therapy in the management of macular-sparing persistent subretinal fluid after scleral buckling procedures

Background: Persistent or recurrent macular-sparing subretinal fluid (SRF) can sometimes occur following scleral buckling procedures. Observation and reoperation have been used in the management of such cases. Demarcation laser therapy (DLT) has been used to treat macular-sparing retinal detachments in the context of cytomegalovirus retinitis and as primary treatment for selected rhegmatogenous retinal detachments. There are, however, scarce data in the literature regarding its use following primary scleral buckling procedures. The current study explores the use of DLT under the latter circumstances. Methods: The medical records of all consecutive patients with persistent SRF sparing the macula following primary rhegmatogenous retinal detachment repair using a scleral buckling procedure were retrospectively reviewed. Only those patients in whom the breaks were localised to the area of indentation and, thus, seemed to be well supported by the buckle were included. Demographics, clinical characteristics of the retinal detachment prior to scleral buckling, extension of the residual SRF observed postoperatively, details of the laser procedure, anatomical and functional outcomes and complications were evaluated. Results: Seven patients, all females, with a mean age of 47.9 years (range: 20-81) were included in the study. The retinal detachments were superior (n=3), inferior (n=3) and subtotal, affecting both superior and inferior retina (n=1). Scleral buckling procedures were used to treat the retinal detachments in all cases. Following demarcation laser therapy, the area of SRF remained stable in two patients, and flattened in four. In one patient, extension of SRF occurred requiring further surgery. Conclusions: Demarcation laser therapy appears to be a reasonable option in the management of patients with persistent or recurrent SRF sparing the macula following scleral buckling surgery. © Springer-Verlag 2006.

The effects of global climate change on the cycling and processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and gamma-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models
(HAMSOM and FANTOM, respectively). To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10-year periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in
situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. This slice mode under a moderate scenario (A1B) is sufficient to provide a basis for further analysis. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilized, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model.
Dry gas deposition and volatilization of gamma-HCH increase in the future relative to the present by up to 20% (in the spring and summer months for deposition and in summer for volatilization). In the water column, total mass of
gamma-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment,
gamma-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, due to the increased number of storms, increased duration of gale wind conditions and increased water and air temperatures, all of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.
Overall, the model results indicate that the climate change scenarios considered here generally have a negligible influence on the simulated fate and transport of the two POPs in the North Sea, although the increased number and magnitude of storms in the 21st century will result in POP resuspension and ensuing revolatilization events. Trends in emissions from primary and secondary sources will remain the key driver of levels of these contaminants over time.