Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Performance Analysis and Improvements for the Future Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS)

This thesis deals with the development of the upcoming aeronautical mobile airport communications system (AeroMACS) system. We analyzed the performance of AeroMACS and we investigated potential solutions for enhancing its performance. Since the most critical results correspond to the channel scenario having less diversity1, we tackled this problem investigating potential solutions for increasing the diversity of the system and therefore improving its performance. We accounted different forms of diversity as space diversity and time diversity. More specifically, space (antenna and cooperative) diversity and time diversity are analyzed as countermeasures for the harsh fading conditions that are typical of airport environments. Among the analyzed techniques, two novel concepts are introduced, namely unequal diversity coding and flexible packet level codes. The proposed techniques have been analyzed on a novel airport channel model, derived from a measurement campaign at the airport of Munich (Germany). The introduced techniques largely improve the performance of the conventional AeroMACS link; representing thus appealing solutions for the long term evolution of the system.

A communication and information technology infrastructure for real time monitoring and management of type 1 diabetes patients

This paper is focused on the integration of state-of-the-art technologies in the fields of telecommunications, simulation algorithms, and data mining in order to develop a Type 1 diabetes patient's semi to fully-automated monitoring and management system. The main components of the system are a glucose measurement device, an insulin delivery system (insulin injection or insulin pumps), a mobile phone for the GPRS network, and a PDA or laptop for the Internet. In the medical environment, appropriate infrastructure for storage, analysis and visualizing of patients' data has been implemented to facilitate treatment design by health care experts.

Comparison of performance measurement-systems used for order-picking

In consequence of rapidly changing market demands companies are permanently encouraged to review their own processes and structures and to modify them. Being one of these developments, order-picking is involved as part of an intra-logistics system. But to take appropriate actions, system performance and system costs have to be measured permanently. Concerning this the use of performance measurement-systems as further development of traditional systems of key figures is suitable. In this paper various performance measurement-systems are compared and their suitability for an implementation in order-picking systems is estimated. On the basis of the result of the evaluation a first concept of a performance measurement-system for order-picking will be developed by using typical key figures that are mentioned in academic literature. Finally, hints for a necessary detailed implementation and evaluation in practice will be given.

Performance Availability and Anticipatory Change Planning of Intralogistics Systems: A Simulation-Based Approach

In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.

Performance measurement integrated information framework in e-Manufacturing

The implementation of Internet technologies has led to e-Manufacturing technologies becoming more widely used and to the development of tools for compiling, transforming and synchronising manufacturing data through the Web. In this context, a potential area for development is the extension of virtual manufacturing to performance measurement (PM) processes, a critical area for decision making and implementing improvement actions in manufacturing. This paper proposes a PM information framework to integrate decision support systems in e-Manufacturing. Specifically, the proposed framework offers a homogeneous PM information exchange model that can be applied through decision support in e-Manufacturing environment. Its application improves the necessary interoperability in decision-making data processing tasks. It comprises three sub-systems: a data model, a PM information platform and PM-Web services architecture. A practical example of data exchange for measurement processes in the area of equipment maintenance is shown to demonstrate the utility of the model.

Planning and Management of Mobility in Natural Protected Areas

The paper describes some relevant results of an on-going research aiming to elaborate a methodology to help the mobility management in natural parks, compatible with their protection missions: it has been developed a procedure to reproduce the mobility-environment relationships in various operational conditions. The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The work is articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (air pollution and noise only); 6) identification of mitigation measures to be potentially applied. The whole methodology has been tested and validated on Italian case studies: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model the flows have been distributed and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions was calculated, the criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios, including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between projects and reference scenario allowed the quantification of effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

Planning and management of mobility in natural protected areas

The final purpose is the identification of: a) the effects of various choices in transport planning, both at long term and strategic level; b) the most effective policies of mobility management. The preliminary work was articulated in the following steps: 1) definition of protected area on the basis of ecological and socio-economic criteria and legislative constraints; 2) analysis of mobility needs in the protected areas; 3) reconstruction of the state of the art of mobility management in natural parks at European level; 4) analysis of used traffic flows measurement methods; 5) analysis of environmental impacts due to transport systems modelling (limited to air pollution and noise); 6) identification of mitigation measures to the potentially applied. The whole methodology has been firstly tested on the case study of the National Park of ?Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga? and further validated on the National Park of ?Gargano?, both located Italy: i) the concerned area has been zoned according to the land-use peculiarities; ii) the local situations of transport infrastructure (roads and parking), services (public transport systems) and rules (traffic regulations) have been mapped with references to physical and functional attributes; iii) the mobility, both systematic and touristic, has been synthetically represented in an origin-destination matrix. By means of an assignment model it has been determined the distribution of flows and the corresponding average speeds to quantify gaseous and noise emissions. On this basis the environmental criticalities in the reference scenario have been highlighted, as well as some alternative scenarios including both operational and infrastructural measures have been identified. The comparison between the projects and the reference scenario allowed the quantification of the effects (variation of emissions) for each scenario and a selection of the most effective management actions to be taken.

A Dynamically Adaptable Bus Architecture for Trading-Off Among Performance, Consumption and Dependability in Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-Physical Systems need to handle increasingly complex tasks, which additionally, may have variable operating conditions over time. Therefore, dynamic resource management to adapt the system to different needs is required. In this paper, a new bus-based architecture, called ARTICo3, which by means of Dynamic Partial Reconfiguration, allows the replication of hardware tasks to support module redundancy, multi-thread operation or dual-rail solutions for enhanced side-channel attack protection is presented. A configuration-aware data transaction unit permits data dispatching to more than one module in parallel, or provide coalesced data dispatching among different units to maximize the advantages of burst transactions. The selection of a given configuration is application independent but context-aware, which may be achieved by the combination of a multi-thread model similar to the CUDA kernel model specification, combined with a dynamic thread/task/kernel scheduler. A multi-kernel application for face recognition is used as an application example to show one scenario of the ARTICo3 architecture.

Diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage: European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline

This Guideline is an official statement of the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE). It addresses the diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). Main Recommendations MR1. ESGE recommends immediate assessment of hemodynamic status in patients who present with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), with prompt intravascular volume replacement initially using crystalloid fluids if hemodynamic instability exists (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR2. ESGE recommends a restrictive red blood cell transfusion strategy that aims for a target hemoglobin between 7 g/dL and 9 g/dL. A higher target hemoglobin should be considered in patients with significant co-morbidity (e. g., ischemic cardiovascular disease) (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR3. ESGE recommends the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) for pre-endoscopy risk stratification. Outpatients determined to be at very low risk, based upon a GBS score of 0 - 1, do not require early endoscopy nor hospital admission. Discharged patients should be informed of the risk of recurrent bleeding and be advised to maintain contact with the discharging hospital (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR4. ESGE recommends initiating high dose intravenous proton pump inhibitors (PPI), intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (80 mg then 8 mg/hour), in patients presenting with acute UGIH awaiting upper endoscopy. However, PPI infusion should not delay the performance of early endoscopy (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR5. ESGE does not recommend the routine use of nasogastric or orogastric aspiration/lavage in patients presenting with acute UGIH (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR6. ESGE recommends intravenous erythromycin (single dose, 250 mg given 30 - 120 minutes prior to upper gastrointestinal [GI] endoscopy) in patients with clinically severe or ongoing active UGIH. In selected patients, pre-endoscopic infusion of erythromycin significantly improves endoscopic visualization, reduces the need for second-look endoscopy, decreases the number of units of blood transfused, and reduces duration of hospital stay (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR7. Following hemodynamic resuscitation, ESGE recommends early (≤ 24 hours) upper GI endoscopy. Very early (< 12 hours) upper GI endoscopy may be considered in patients with high risk clinical features, namely: hemodynamic instability (tachycardia, hypotension) that persists despite ongoing attempts at volume resuscitation; in-hospital bloody emesis/nasogastric aspirate; or contraindication to the interruption of anticoagulation (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR8. ESGE recommends that peptic ulcers with spurting or oozing bleeding (Forrest classification Ia and Ib, respectively) or with a nonbleeding visible vessel (Forrest classification IIa) receive endoscopic hemostasis because these lesions are at high risk for persistent bleeding or rebleeding (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR9. ESGE recommends that peptic ulcers with an adherent clot (Forrest classification IIb) be considered for endoscopic clot removal. Once the clot is removed, any identified underlying active bleeding (Forrest classification Ia or Ib) or nonbleeding visible vessel (Forrest classification IIa) should receive endoscopic hemostasis (weak recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR10. In patients with peptic ulcers having a flat pigmented spot (Forrest classification IIc) or clean base (Forrest classification III), ESGE does not recommend endoscopic hemostasis as these stigmata present a low risk of recurrent bleeding. In selected clinical settings, these patients may be discharged to home on standard PPI therapy, e. g., oral PPI once-daily (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence). MR11. ESGE recommends that epinephrine injection therapy not be used as endoscopic monotherapy. If used, it should be combined with a second endoscopic hemostasis modality (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR12. ESGE recommends PPI therapy for patients who receive endoscopic hemostasis and for patients with adherent clot not receiving endoscopic hemostasis. PPI therapy should be high dose and administered as an intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (80 mg then 8 mg/hour) for 72 hours post endoscopy (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR13. ESGE does not recommend routine second-look endoscopy as part of the management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH). However, in patients with clinical evidence of rebleeding following successful initial endoscopic hemostasis, ESGE recommends repeat upper endoscopy with hemostasis if indicated. In the case of failure of this second attempt at hemostasis, transcatheter angiographic embolization (TAE) or surgery should be considered (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR14. In patients with NVUGIH secondary to peptic ulcer, ESGE recommends investigating for the presence of Helicobacter pylori in the acute setting with initiation of appropriate antibiotic therapy when H. pylori is detected. Re-testing for H. pylori should be performed in those patients with a negative test in the acute setting. Documentation of successful H. pylori eradication is recommended (strong recommendation, high quality evidence). MR15. In patients receiving low dose aspirin for secondary cardiovascular prophylaxis who develop peptic ulcer bleeding, ESGE recommends aspirin be resumed immediately following index endoscopy if the risk of rebleeding is low (e. g., FIIc, FIII). In patients with high risk peptic ulcer (FIa, FIb, FIIa, FIIb), early reintroduction of aspirin by day 3 after index endoscopy is recommended, provided that adequate hemostasis has been established (strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence).