992 resultados para optimal stopping rule


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A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

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When communicating emotion in music, composers and performers encode their expressive intentions through the control of basic musical features such as: pitch, loudness, timbre, mode, and articulation. The extent to which emotion can be controlled through the systematic manipulation of these features has not been fully examined. In this paper we present CMERS, a Computational Music Emotion Rule System for the control of perceived musical emotion that modifies features at the levels of score and performance in real-time. CMERS performance was evaluated in two rounds of perceptual testing. In experiment I, 20 participants continuously rated the perceived emotion of 15 music samples generated by CMERS. Three music works, each with five emotional variations were used (normal, happy, sad, angry, and tender). The intended emotion by CMERS was correctly identified 78% of the time, with significant shifts in valence and arousal also recorded, regardless of the works’ original emotion.

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This paper presents a retrospective view of a game design practice that recently switched from the development of complex learning games to the development of simple authoring tools for students to design their own learning games for each other. We introduce how our ‘10% Rule’, a premise that only 10% of what is learnt during a game design process is ultimately appreciated by the player, became a major contributor to the evolving practice. We use this rule primarily as an analytical and illustrative tool to discuss the learning involved in designing and playing learning games rather than as a scientifically and empirically proven rule. The 10% rule was promoted by our experience as designers and allows us to explore the often overlooked and valuable learning processes involved in designing learning games and mobile games in particular. This discussion highlights that in designing mobile learning games, students are not only reflecting on their own learning processes through setting up structures for others to enquire and investigate, they are also engaging in high-levels of independent inquiry and critical analysis in authentic learning settings. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the importance of these types of learning processes and skills of enquiry in 21st Century learning.

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This research quantitatively examines the determinants of board size and the consequence it has on the performance of large companies in Australia. In line with international and the prevalent United States research the results suggest that there is no significant relationship between board size and their subsequent performance. In examining whether more complex operations require larger boards it was found that larger firms or firms with more lines of business tended to have more directors. Data analysis from the research supports the proposition that blockholders could affect management practices and that they enhances performance as measured by shareholder return.

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Decisions made in the earliest stage of architectural design have the greatest impact on the construction, lifecycle cost and environmental footprint of buildings. Yet the building services, one of the largest contributors to cost, complexity, and environmental impact, are rarely considered as an influence on the design at this crucial stage. In order for efficient and environmentally sensitive built environment outcomes to be achieved, a closer collaboration between architects and services engineers is required at the outset of projects. However, in practice, there are a variety of obstacles impeding this transition towards an integrated design approach. This paper firstly presents a critical review of the existing barriers to multidisciplinary design. It then examines current examples of best practice in the building industry to highlight the collaborative strategies being employed and their benefits to the design process. Finally, it discusses a case study project to identify directions for further research.

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This paper presents advanced optimization techniques for Mission Path Planning (MPP) of a UAS fitted with a spore trap to detect and monitor spores and plant pathogens. The UAV MPP aims to optimise the mission path planning search and monitoring of spores and plant pathogens that may allow the agricultural sector to be more competitive and more reliable. The UAV will be fitted with an air sampling or spore trap to detect and monitor spores and plant pathogens in remote areas not accessible to current stationary monitor methods. The optimal paths are computed using a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs). Two types of multi-objective optimisers are compared; the MOEA Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms II (NSGA-II) and Hybrid Game are implemented to produce a set of optimal collision-free trajectories in three-dimensional environment. The trajectories on a three-dimension terrain, which are generated off-line, are collision-free and are represented by using Bézier spline curves from start position to target and then target to start position or different position with altitude constraints. The efficiency of the two optimization methods is compared in terms of computational cost and design quality. Numerical results show the benefits of coupling a Hybrid-Game strategy to a MOEA for MPP tasks. The reduction of numerical cost is an important point as the faster the algorithm converges the better the algorithms is for an off-line design and for future on-line decisions of the UAV.

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Web service composition is an important problem in web service based systems. It is about how to build a new value-added web service using existing web services. A web service may have many implementations, all of which have the same functionality, but may have different QoS values. Thus, a significant research problem in web service composition is how to select a web service implementation for each of the web services such that the composite web service gives the best overall performance. This is so-called optimal web service selection problem. There may be mutual constraints between some web service implementations. Sometimes when an implementation is selected for one web service, a particular implementation for another web service must be selected. This is so called dependency constraint. Sometimes when an implementation for one web service is selected, a set of implementations for another web service must be excluded in the web service composition. This is so called conflict constraint. Thus, the optimal web service selection is a typical constrained ombinatorial optimization problem from the computational point of view. This paper proposes a new hybrid genetic algorithm for the optimal web service selection problem. The hybrid genetic algorithm has been implemented and evaluated. The evaluation results have shown that the hybrid genetic algorithm outperforms other two existing genetic algorithms when the number of web services and the number of constraints are large.

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The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia.

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The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia

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Artificial neural network (ANN) learning methods provide a robust and non-linear approach to approximating the target function for many classification, regression and clustering problems. ANNs have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide variety of practical problems. However, there are strong arguments as to why ANNs are not sufficient for the general representation of knowledge. The arguments are the poor comprehensibility of the learned ANN, and the inability to represent explanation structures. The overall objective of this thesis is to address these issues by: (1) explanation of the decision process in ANNs in the form of symbolic rules (predicate rules with variables); and (2) provision of explanatory capability by mapping the general conceptual knowledge that is learned by the neural networks into a knowledge base to be used in a rule-based reasoning system. A multi-stage methodology GYAN is developed and evaluated for the task of extracting knowledge from the trained ANNs. The extracted knowledge is represented in the form of restricted first-order logic rules, and subsequently allows user interaction by interfacing with a knowledge based reasoner. The performance of GYAN is demonstrated using a number of real world and artificial data sets. The empirical results demonstrate that: (1) an equivalent symbolic interpretation is derived describing the overall behaviour of the ANN with high accuracy and fidelity, and (2) a concise explanation is given (in terms of rules, facts and predicates activated in a reasoning episode) as to why a particular instance is being classified into a certain category.

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This project proposes a new conceptual framework for the regulation of social networks and virtual communities. By applying a model based upon the rule of law, this thesis addresses the growing tensions that revolve around the public use of private networks. This research examines the shortcomings of traditional contractual governance models and cyberlaw theory and provides a reconstituted approach that will allow public constitutional-type interests to be recognised in the interpretation and enforcement of contractual doctrine.

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There is a severe tendency in cyberlaw theory to delegitimize state intervention in the governance of virtual communities. Much of the existing theory makes one of two fundamental flawed assumptions: that communities will always be best governed without the intervention of the state; or that the territorial state can best encourage the development of communities by creating enforceable property rights and allowing the market to resolve any disputes. These assumptions do not ascribe sufficient weight to the value-laden support that the territorial state always provides to private governance regimes, the inefficiencies that will tend to limit the development utopian communities, and the continued role of the territorial state in limiting autonomy in accordance with communal values. In order to overcome these deterministic assumptions, this article provides a framework based upon the values of the rule of law through which to conceptualise the legitimacy of the private exercise of power in virtual communities. The rule of law provides a constitutional discourse that assists in considering appropriate limits on the exercise of private power. I argue that the private contractual framework that is used to govern relations in virtual communities ought to be informed by the values of the rule of law in order to more appropriately address the governance tensions that permeate these spaces. These values suggest three main limits to the exercise of private power: that governance is limited by community rules and that the scope of autonomy is limited by the substantive values of the territorial state; that private contractual rules should be general, equal, and certain; and that, most importantly, internal norms be predicated upon the consent of participants.