Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Common variants in UMOD associate with urinary uromodulin levels: a meta-analysis.

Uromodulin is expressed exclusively in the thick ascending limb and is the most abundant protein excreted in normal urine. Variants in UMOD, which encodes uromodulin, are associated with renal function, and urinary uromodulin levels may be a biomarker for kidney disease. However, the genetic factors regulating uromodulin excretion are unknown. We conducted a meta-analysis of urinary uromodulin levels to identify associated common genetic variants in the general population. We included 10,884 individuals of European descent from three genetic isolates and three urban cohorts. Each study measured uromodulin indexed to creatinine and conducted linear regression analysis of approximately 2.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms using an additive model. We also tested whether variants in genes expressed in the thick ascending limb associate with uromodulin levels. rs12917707, located near UMOD and previously associated with renal function and CKD, had the strongest association with urinary uromodulin levels (P<0.001). In all cohorts, carriers of a G allele of this variant had higher uromodulin levels than noncarriers did (geometric means 10.24, 14.05, and 17.67 μg/g creatinine for zero, one, or two copies of the G allele). rs12446492 in the adjacent gene PDILT (protein disulfide isomerase-like, testis expressed) also reached genome-wide significance (P<0.001). Regarding genes expressed in the thick ascending limb, variants in KCNJ1, SORL1, and CAB39 associated with urinary uromodulin levels. These data indicate that common variants in the UMOD promoter region may influence urinary uromodulin levels. They also provide insights into uromodulin biology and the association of UMOD variants with renal function.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

Evaluation of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for cardiovascular risk factors-correcting for the regression towards the mean effect.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.

Reference values and factors associated with renal resistive index in a family-based population study.

Increased renal resistive index (RRI) has been recently associated with target organ damage and cardiovascular or renal outcomes in patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus. However, reference values in the general population and information on familial aggregation are largely lacking. We determined the distribution of RRI, associated factors, and heritability in a population-based study. Families of European ancestry were randomly selected in 3 Swiss cities. Anthropometric parameters and cardiovascular risk factors were assessed. A renal Doppler ultrasound was performed, and RRI was measured in 3 segmental arteries of both kidneys. We used multilevel linear regression analysis to explore the factors associated with RRI, adjusting for center and family relationships. Sex-specific reference values for RRI were generated according to age. Heritability was estimated by variance components using the ASSOC program (SAGE software). Four hundred women (mean age±SD, 44.9±16.7 years) and 326 men (42.1±16.8 years) with normal renal ultrasound had mean RRI of 0.64±0.05 and 0.62±0.05, respectively (P<0.001). In multivariable analyses, RRI was positively associated with female sex, age, systolic blood pressure, and body mass index. We observed an inverse correlation with diastolic blood pressure and heart rate. Age had a nonlinear association with RRI. We found no independent association of RRI with diabetes mellitus, hypertension treatment, smoking, cholesterol levels, or estimated glomerular filtration rate. The adjusted heritability estimate was 42±8% (P<0.001). In a population-based sample with normal renal ultrasound, RRI normal values depend on sex, age, blood pressure, heart rate, and body mass index. The significant heritability of RRI suggests that genes influence this phenotype.

Social inequalities of functioning and perceived health in Switzerland: a representative cross-sectional analysis.

Many people worldwide live with a disability, i.e. limitations in functioning. The prevalence is expected to increase due to demographic change and the growing importance of non-communicable disease and injury. To date, many epidemiological studies have used simple dichotomous measures of disability, even though the WHO's International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) provides a multi-dimensional framework of functioning. We aimed to examine associations of socio-economic status (SES) and social integration in 3 core domains of functioning (impairment, pain, limitations in activity and participation) and perceived health. We conducted a secondary analysis of representative cross-sectional data of the Swiss Health Survey 2007 including 10,336 female and 8,424 male Swiss residents aged 15 or more. Guided by a theoretical ICF-based model, 4 mixed effects Poisson regressions were fitted in order to explain functioning and perceived health by indicators of SES and social integration. Analyses were stratified by age groups (15-30, 31-54, ≥55 years). In all age groups, SES and social integration were significantly associated with functional and perceived health. Among the functional domains, impairment and pain were closely related, and both were associated with limitations in activity and participation. SES, social integration and functioning were related to perceived health. We found pronounced social inequalities in functioning and perceived health, supporting our theoretical model. Social factors play a significant role in the experience of health, even in a wealthy country such as Switzerland. These findings await confirmation in other, particularly lower resourced settings.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Reexamination of the relationship of resting metabolic rate to fat-free mass and to the metabolically active components of fat-free mass in humans.

The ratio of resting metabolic rate (RMR) to fat-free mass (FFM) is often used to compare individuals of different body sizes. Because RMR has not been well described over the full range of FFM, a literature review was conducted among groups with a wide range of FFM. It included 31 data sets comprising a total of 1111 subjects: 118 infants and preschoolers, 323 adolescents, and 670 adults; FFM ranged from 2.8 to 106 kg. The relationship of RMR to FFM was found to be nonlinear and average slopes of the regression equations of the three groups differed significantly (P less than 0.0001). For only the youngest group did the intercept approach zero. The lower slopes of RMR on FFM, at higher measures of FFM, corresponded to relatively greater proportions of less metabolically active muscle mass and to lesser proportions of more metabolically active nonmuscle organ mass. Because the contribution of FFM to RMR is not constant, an arithmetic error is introduced when the ratio of RMR to FFM is used. Hence, alternative methods should be used to compare individuals with markedly different FFM.

Genetic Variation in the TP53 Pathway and Bladder Cancer Risk. A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction: Germline variants in TP63 have been consistently associated with several tumors, including bladder cancer, indicating the importance of TP53 pathway in cancer genetic susceptibility. However, variants in other related genes, including TP53 rs1042522 (Arg72Pro), still present controversial results. We carried out an in depth assessment of associations between common germline variants in the TP53 pathway and bladder cancer risk. Material and Methods: We investigated 184 tagSNPs from 18 genes in 1,058 cases and 1,138 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO Study. Cases were newly-diagnosed bladder cancer patients during 1998–2001. Hospital controls were age-gender, and area matched to cases. SNPs were genotyped in blood DNA using Illumina Golden Gate and TaqMan assays. Cases were subphenotyped according to stage/grade and tumor p53 expression. We applied classical tests to assess individual SNP associations and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-penalized logistic regression analysis to assess multiple SNPs simultaneously. Results: Based on classical analyses, SNPs in BAK1 (1), IGF1R (5), P53AIP1 (1), PMAIP1 (2), SERINPB5 (3), TP63 (3), and TP73 (1) showed significant associations at p-value#0.05. However, no evidence of association, either with overall risk or with specific disease subtypes, was observed after correction for multiple testing (p-value$0.8). LASSO selected the SNP rs6567355 in SERPINB5 with 83% of reproducibility. This SNP provided an OR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.05–1.38, p-value = 0.006, and a corrected p-value = 0.5 when controlling for over-estimation. Discussion: We found no strong evidence that common variants in the TP53 pathway are associated with bladder cancer susceptibility. Our study suggests that it is unlikely that TP53 Arg72Pro is implicated in the UCB in white Europeans. SERPINB5 and TP63 variation deserve further exploration in extended studies.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

An outcome and cost analysis of anal fistula plug insertion vs endorectal advancement flap for complex anal fistulae.

AIM: The study aimed to compare the rate of success and cost of anal fistula plug (AFP) insertion and endorectal advancement flap (ERAF) for anal fistula. METHOD: Patients receiving an AFP or ERAF for a complex single fistula tract, defined as involving more than a third of the longitudinal length of of the anal sphincter, were registered in a prospective database. A regression analysis was performed of factors predicting recurrence and contributing to cost. RESULTS: Seventy-one patients (AFP 31, ERAF 40) were analysed. Twelve (39%) recurrences occurred in the AFP and 17 (43%) in the ERAF group (P = 1.00). The median length of stay was 1.23 and 2.0 days (P < 0.001), respectively, and the mean cost of treatment was euro5439 ± euro2629 and euro7957 ± euro5905 (P = 0.021), respectively. On multivariable analysis, postoperative complications, underlying inflammatory bowel disease and fistula recurring after previous treatment were independent predictors of de novo recurrence. It also showed that length of hospital stay ≤ 1 day to be the most significant independent contributor to lower cost (P = 0.023). CONCLUSION: Anal fistula plug and ERAF were equally effective in treating fistula-in-ano, but AFP has a mean cost saving of euro2518 per procedure compared with ERAF. The higher cost for ERAF is due to a longer median length of stay.

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A meta-analysis approach

The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most studied in the energy economics literature. Nevertheless, the great variability of results makes it very difficult to extract conclusive results on the existence or not of asymmetries. This paper shows through a meta-analysis approach how the industry segment analysed, the quality and quantity of data, the estimator and the model used may explain this heterogeneity of results.

Regional Science trends through the analysis of the main facts of the 51st ERSA Conference

The 51st ERSA Conference held in Barcelona in 2011 was one of the largest ever. By examining the characteristics of the conference, this paper identifies the main trends in Regional Science and draws on a broad array of sources of information: the delegates" demographic details, the conference program itself, a satisfaction survey conducted among delegates, a quality survey addressed to those chairing the sessions and, finally, a bibliometric database including each author signing a paper presented at the conference. We finally run a regression analysis from which we show that for ERSA delegates what matters most is quality, and this must be the direction that future conferences should move toward. Ultimately, ERSA conferences are comprehensive, all-embracing occasions, representing an ideal opportunity for regional scientists to present their work to each other and to network.