Investigation of discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

Rainfall estimation by rain gauge-radar combination: a concurrent multiplicative-additive approach

A procedure (concurrent multiplicative-additive objective analysis scheme [CMA-OAS]) is proposed for operational rainfall estimation using rain gauges and radar data. On the basis of a concurrent multiplicative-additive (CMA) decomposition of the spatially nonuniform radar bias, within-storm variability of rainfall and fractional coverage of rainfall are taken into account. Thus both spatially nonuniform radar bias, given that rainfall is detected, and bias in radar detection of rainfall are handled. The interpolation procedure of CMA-OAS is built on Barnes' objective analysis scheme (OAS), whose purpose is to estimate a filtered spatial field of the variable of interest through a successive correction of residuals resulting from a Gaussian kernel smoother applied on spatial samples. The CMA-OAS, first, poses an optimization problem at each gauge-radar support point to obtain both a local multiplicative-additive radar bias decomposition and a regionalization parameter. Second, local biases and regionalization parameters are integrated into an OAS to estimate the multisensor rainfall at the ground level. The procedure is suited to relatively sparse rain gauge networks. To show the procedure, six storms are analyzed at hourly steps over 10,663 km2. Results generally indicated an improved quality with respect to other methods evaluated: a standard mean-field bias adjustment, a spatially variable adjustment with multiplicative factors, and ordinary cokriging.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Sjuksköterskestudenters skattade upplevelser av lärandemiljön före och efter inrättandet av Kompetenscentrum

Bakgrund: Under senare år har allt fler kliniska träningscentra för färdighetsträning etablerats för att möjliggöra en trygg och säker lärandemiljö med simuleringsmöjligheter för studerande och personal. Klinisk färdighetsträning är en viktig del i sjuksköterskeutbildningen vid Högskolan Dalarna (HDa) där lärandemiljön på Kompetenscentrum (KC) kan bidra till en förbättring av lärandemiljön i den kliniska färdighetsutbildningen. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka sjuksköterskestudenters upplevelser via skattning av lärandemiljön för klinisk färdighetsutbildning före och efter inrättandet av Kompetenscentrum. Metod: Studien genomfördes som en enkätundersökning med kvasiexperimentell design. Enkätens baserades på Saarikoski och Leino-Kilpis mätinstrument CLES där frågeställningar om lärandemiljön modifierades med hjälp av Delphimetoden utifrån de tre olika dimensionerna: utbildningsmiljö, relation och lärarens roll. Mätningen före inrättandet genomfördes under hösten 2010 och mätningen efter inrättandet genomfördes hösten 2011. Totalt ingick 266 sjuksköterskestudenter i studien varav 198 (74 %) besvarade enkäten. Resultat: Sjuksköterskestudenter skattade upplevelsen av lärandemiljön mer positiv efter inrättandet av Kompetenscentrum där resultatet visar en signifikant högre skattning i 8 de av de 16 frågorna. Sjuksköterskestudenterna skattade att de upplever att utbildningsmiljön är mer verklighetstrogen, de är mer nöjda med färdighetsträningen samt att den inspirerar dem till att arbeta som sjuksköterska. Att relationen mellan dem och läraren bygger på respekt och att det är en mer positiv atmosfären under färdighetsträningen. Däremot påvisades ingen signifikant skillnad i studenternas upplevelse av den kliniska lärarens roll. Slutsats: Det är uppenbart att lärandemiljö har betydelse för sjuksköterskestudentens integration av såväl teoretiska som praktiska kunskaper vilket medför att färdigheterna förbättras och ger en bra grund för arbetet som sjuksköterska. Strategier bör vidtas för att vidmakthålla och utveckla lärandemiljön på KC samt fokusera ytterligare på integrering av teori och praktik.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting Systems In Flanders

As a highly urbanized and flood prone region, Flanders has experienced multiple floods causing significant damage in the past. In response to the floods of 1998 and 2002 the Flemish Environment Agency, responsible for managing 1 400 km of unnavigable rivers, started setting up a real time flood forecasting system in 2003. Currently the system covers almost 2 000 km of unnavigable rivers, for which flood forecasts are accessible online (www.waterinfo.be). The forecasting system comprises more than 1 000 hydrologic and 50 hydrodynamic models which are supplied with radar rainfall, rainfall forecasts and on-site observations. Forecasts for the next 2 days are generated hourly, while 10 day forecasts are generated twice a day. Additionally, twice daily simulations based on percentile rainfall forecasts (from EPS predictions) result in uncertainty bands for the latter. Subsequent flood forecasts use the most recent rainfall predictions and observed parameters at any time while uncertainty on the longer-term is taken into account. The flood forecasting system produces high resolution dynamic flood maps and graphs at about 200 river gauges and more than 3 000 forecast points. A customized emergency response system generates phone calls and text messages to a team of hydrologists initiating a pro-active response to prevent upcoming flood damage. The flood forecasting system of the Flemish Environment Agency is constantly evolving and has proven to be an indispensable tool in flood crisis management. This was clearly the case during the November 2010 floods, when the agency issued a press release 2 days in advance allowing water managers, emergency services and civilians to take measures.

Decent work and the informal sector in Brazil

Brazil has a substantial share – about 60% by some measures - of its employees working without labor registry and 62% of its private sector workers not contributing to social security. Informality is important because its job precaurioness, social desprotection consequences, and it is also very correlated with poverty and other social welfare concepts measured at a family level. 58% of the country population that is found below the indigent line live in families headed by informal workers. The complexity of the informal sector is derived from the multiple relevant dimensions of jobs quality. The basis used for guiding policy interventions depends on which effect of informality one is interested such: as lowering job precaurioness, increasing occupational risks, increasing the degree of protection against adverse shocks, allowing that good oportunities to be taken by the credit provision, improving informal workers families living conditions, implementing afirmative actions, reducing tax evasion etc. This report gauges various aspects of the informal sector activities in Brazil over the last decades. Our artistic constraint are the available sources of information. The final purpose is to help the design of policies aimed to assist those that hold “indecent” jobs

Avaliação da vida em fadiga de uniões parafusadas : estudo de caso

Parafusos utilizados para fixação de partes submetidos a carregamentos cíclicos, inerentemente estão sujeitos à falhas por fadiga. O presente trabalho está apoiado no estudo do conjunto carcaça/corrediça de um compressor fixado por parafusos prisioneiros - ISO M24x3. Os prisioneiros que fixam o flange da corrediça falham prematuramente por fadiga. Assim, este trabalho tem como objetivos desenvolver uma metodologia para otimizar o desempenho em fadiga do conjunto parafusado. Numa primeira fase foram realizados ensaios em parafusos de mesmas dimensões, porém de classes e processos de fabricação diferentes, para poder-se avaliar o melhor processo de fabricação no desempenho em fadiga. Observou-se que o processo de laminação da rosca seguido de tratamento térmico é o mais adequado para o caso em estudo. Em uma etapa seguinte, instrumentaram-se os prisioneiros utilizando strain gauges com os componentes em condições de serviço, para avaliar a deformação dos parafusos desde a aplicação do torque de aperto durante a montagem e acionamento do compressor até a operação em sua carga máxima. Observou-se que, apesar dos parafusos estarem submetidos à cargas dentro do regime de segurança, apresentam dispersão da pré-carga e baixa protensão de aperto. Posteriormente, foram realizados outros ensaios em laboratório com dispositivos projetados especialmente para reconstruir o flange do compressor em estudo. O dispositivo procurou traçar as características dimensionais e materiais semelhantes do conjunto carcaça/corrediça. Tem-se como conclusão principal deste trabalho, que na configuração atual de união do flange com a carcaça, resulta num baixo índice de aperto que é verificado através das cargas máximas que são transferidas diretamente ao parafuso. Por fim, verificou-se que aumentando o comprimento do parafuso através da inserção de uma bucha extensora, aumenta a vida em fadiga dos componentes de união.

Brazil's middle classes

This paper discusses the Brazilian middle class, its definition, evolution, profile, attitudes and durability. It describes the methodology that uses per capita household income derived from household surveys to determine economic classes. It gauges their respective aggregate trends and gauges individual income risks using longitudinal data. An income-based approach is only the beginning. This initial approach is integrated with subjective data to measure expectations and attitudes of different economic classes combined with a structural approach that takes into account the roles played by human, physical and social capital in the production factors, in terms of income generation and temporal allocation of resources. In all cases, income is the chosen numeraire by which all dimensions analyzed are projected. In the end of the article, all forms of measurement proposed – current income, consumption smoothing (permanent income), productive assets and subjective aspects – are combined to discuss the design of public policies aimed at the Brazilian middle classes.

Profundidade de mercado na BM&FBovespa: um modelo de alta frequência para estimação da profundidade de mercado da BM&FBovespa

O objetivo desse trabalho é encontrar uma medida dinâmica de liquidez de ações brasileiras, chamada VNET. Foram utilizados dados de alta frequência para criar um modelo capaz de medir o excesso de compras e vendas associadas a um movimento de preços. Ao variar no tempo, o VNET pode ser entendido como a variação da proporção de agentes informados em um modelo de informação assimétrica. Uma vez estimado, ele pode ser utilizado para prever mudanças na liquidez de uma ação. O VNET tem implicações práticas importantes, podendo ser utilizado por operadores como uma medida estocástica para identificar quais seriam os melhores momentos para operar. Gerentes de risco também podem estimar a deterioração de preço esperada ao se liquidar uma posição, sendo possível analisar suas diversas opções, servindo de base para otimização da execução. Na construção do trabalho encontramos as durações de preço de cada ação e as diversas medidas associadas a elas. Com base nos dados observa-se que a profundidade varia com ágio de compra e venda, com o volume negociado, com o numero de negócios, com a duração de preços condicional e com o seu erro de previsão. Os resíduos da regressão de VNET se mostraram bem comportados o que corrobora a hipótese de que o modelo foi bem especificado. Para estimar a curva de reação do mercado, variamos os intervalos de preço usados na definição das durações.

Processamento Inteligente de Sinais de Pressão e Temperatura Adquiridos Através de Sensores Permanentes em Poços de Petróleo

Originally aimed at operational objectives, the continuous measurement of well bottomhole pressure and temperature, recorded by permanent downhole gauges (PDG), finds vast applicability in reservoir management. It contributes for the monitoring of well performance and makes it possible to estimate reservoir parameters on the long term. However, notwithstanding its unquestionable value, data from PDG is characterized by a large noise content. Moreover, the presence of outliers within valid signal measurements seems to be a major problem as well. In this work, the initial treatment of PDG signals is addressed, based on curve smoothing, self-organizing maps and the discrete wavelet transform. Additionally, a system based on the coupling of fuzzy clustering with feed-forward neural networks is proposed for transient detection. The obtained results were considered quite satisfactory for offshore wells and matched real requisites for utilization

Evaporação cutânea e respiratória em ovinos sob altas temperaturas ambientes

Dez ovinos da raça Corriedale foram avaliados para as taxas de evaporação respiratória (E R) e cutânea (E C). Cada animal foi observado até 10 vezes, sob diferentes condições de temperatura (21,1 a 41,9ºC) e pressão parcial de vapor do ar (1,53 a 3,01 kPa), usando um método gravimétrico para determinar a perda de água. As médias totais foram 0,7599±0,0094 g.h-1.kg-1 para E R e 1,3029±0,0591 g.h-1.kg-1 para E C. A evaporação cutânea foi considerada como um fator importante de termólise para ovinos em ambientes quentes. São discutidos os efeitos do sexo, da espessura do velo e da temperatura e umidade do ar.

Impacto do abastecimento irregular de água nos altos índices de dengue

Dengue fever is an infectious disease that causes thousands of deaths each year in Brazil and other tropical countries. This work demonstrates that the irregularity in the supply of water by public water supply systems is a major factor that contributes to the proliferation of breeding sites of the mosquito that transmits dengue, due to the impossibility of removing water storage tanks. 31 points in the water supply network in thirteen districts of Natal, Brazil, were monitored by the installation of pressure gauges type Datalogger. The data about pressure showed deficiency in water supplies in many neighborhoods, forcing residents to accumulate water in tanks at ground level. In addition, It was observed that in neighborhoods with regular water supply, Infestation Index per type of container (ITR) of type A2 (Deposit ground level) was 0.00% and where there were failures in the supply of water , the ITR was high (above 50%). We believe that policies to combat dengue in Brazil should be reassessed so that more resources can be directed to the improvement of water supply systems and supply companies should be blamed for the problem too

Effect of abutment's height and framework alloy on the load distribution of mandibular cantilevered implant-supported prosthesis

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of cantilever length and framework alloy on the stress distribution of mandibular-cantilevered implant-supported prostheses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)