The more the merrier: Multi-species experiments in ecology

A major objective in ecology is to find general patterns, and to establish the rules and underlying mechanisms that generate those patterns. Nevertheless, most of our current insights in ecology are based on case studies of a single or few species, whereas multi-species experimental studies remain rare. We underline the power of the multi-species experimental approach for addressing general ecological questions, e. g. on species environmental responses or on patterns of among-and within-species variation. We present simulations that show that the accuracy of estimates of between-group differences is increased by maximizing the number of species rather than the number of populations or individuals per species. Thus, the more species a multi-species experiment includes, the more powerful it is. In addition, we discuss some inevitable methodological challenges of multi-species experiments. While we acknowledge the value of single-or few-species experiments, we strongly advocate the use of multi-species experiments for addressing ecological questions at a more general level.

Anisotropic diffusion at the field scale in a 4-year multi-tracer diffusion and retention experiment – I: Insights from the experimental data

Abstract Claystones are considered worldwide as barrier materials for nuclear waste repositories. In the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (URL), a nearly 4-year diffusion and retention (DR) experiment has been performed in Opalinus Clay. It aimed at (1) obtaining data at larger space and time scales than in laboratory experiments and (2) under relevant in situ conditions with respect to pore water chemistry and mechanical stress, (3) quantifying the anisotropy of in situ diffusion, and (4) exploring possible effects of a borehole-disturbed zone. The experiment included two tracer injection intervals in a borehole perpendicular to bedding, through which traced artificial pore water (APW) was circulated, and a pressure monitoring interval. The APW was spiked with neutral tracers (HTO, HDO, H2O-18), anions (Br, I, SeO4), and cations (Na-22, Ba-133, Sr-85, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152, stable Cs, and stable Eu). Most tracers were added at the beginning, some were added at a later stage. The hydraulic pressure in the injection intervals was adjusted according to the measured value in the pressure monitoring interval to ensure transport by diffusion only. Concentration time-series in the APW within the borehole intervals were obtained, as well as 2D concentration distributions in the rock at the end of the experiment after overcoring and subsampling which resulted in �250 samples and �1300 analyses. As expected, HTO diffused the furthest into the rock, followed by the anions (Br, I, SeO4) and by the cationic sorbing tracers (Na-22, Ba-133, Cs, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152). The diffusion of SeO4 was slower than that of Br or I, approximately proportional to the ratio of their diffusion coefficients in water. Ba-133 diffused only into �0.1 m during the �4 a. Stable Cs, added at a higher concentration than Cs-137, diffused further into the rock than Cs-137, consistent with a non-linear sorption behavior. The rock properties (e.g., water contents) were rather homogeneous at the centimeter scale, with no evidence of a borehole-disturbed zone. In situ anisotropy ratios for diffusion, derived for the first time directly from field data, are larger for HTO and Na-22 (�5) than for anions (�3�4 for Br and I). The lower ionic strength of the pore water at this location (�0.22 M) as compared to locations of earlier experiments in the Mont Terri URL (�0.39 M) had no notable effect on the anion accessible pore fraction for Cl, Br, and I: the value of 0.55 is within the range of earlier data. Detailed transport simulations involving different codes will be presented in a companion paper.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Prognostic factors for advanced-stage human immunodeficiency virus-associated classical Hodgkin lymphoma treated with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine plus combined antiretroviral therapy: A multi-institutional retrospective study.

BACKGROUND The treatment and outcomes of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) continue to evolve. The International Prognostic Score (IPS) is used to predict the survival of patients with advanced-stage HL, but it has not been validated in patients with HIV infection. METHODS This was a multi-institutional, retrospective study of 229 patients with HIV-associated, advanced-stage, classical HL who received doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) plus combination antiretroviral therapy. Their clinical characteristics were presented descriptively, and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors that were predictive of response and prognostic of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS The overall and complete response rates to ABVD in patients with HIV-associated HL were 91% and 83%, respectively. After a median follow-up of 5 years, the 5-year PFS and OS rates were 69% and 78%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, there was a trend toward an IPS score >3 as an adverse factor for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; P=.15) and OS (HR, 1.84; P=.06). A cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4)-positive (T-helper) cell count <200 cells/μL was associated independently with both PFS (HR, 2.60; P=.002) and OS (HR, 2.04; P=.04). The CD4-positive cell count was associated with an increased incidence of death from other causes (HR, 2.64; P=.04) but not with death from HL-related causes (HR, 1.55; P=.32). CONCLUSIONS The current results indicate excellent response and survival rates in patients with HIV-associated, advanced-stage, classical HL who receive ABVD and combination antiretroviral therapy as well as the prognostic value of the CD4-positive cell count at the time of lymphoma diagnosis for PFS and OS. Cancer 2014. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Predicting prostate cancer-specific outcome after radical prostatectomy among men with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa: a multi-institutional outcome study of 266 patients

BACKGROUND The value of radical prostatectomy (RP) as an approach for very high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) patients is controversial. To examine the risk of 10-year cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other-cause mortality (OCM) according to clinical and pathological characteristics of very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa patients treated with RP as the primary treatment option. METHODS In a multi-institutional cohort, 266 patients with very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa treated with RP were identified. All patients underwent RP and pelvic lymph-node dissection. Competing-risk analyses assessed 10-year CSM and OCM before and after stratification for age and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). RESULTS Overall, 34 (13%) patients died from PCa and 73 (28%) from OCM. Ten-year CSM and OCM rates ranged from 5.6% to 12.9% and from 10% to 38%, respectively. OCM was the leading cause of death in all subgroups. Age and comorbidities were the main determinants of OCM. In healthy men, CSM rate did not differ among age groups (10-year CSM rate for ⩽64, 65-69 and ⩾70 years: 16.2%, 11.5% and 17.1%, respectively). Men with a CCI ⩾1 showed a very low risk of CSM irrespective of age (10-year CSM: 5.6-6.1%), whereas the 10-year OCM rates increased with age up to 38% in men ⩾70 years. CONCLUSION Very high-risk cT3b/4 PCa represents a heterogeneous group. We revealed overall low CSM rates despite the highly unfavorable clinical disease. For healthy men, CSM was independent of age, supporting RP even for older men. Conversely, less healthy patients had the highest risk of dying from OCM while sharing very low risk of CSM, indicating that this group might not benefit from an aggressive surgical treatment. Outcome after RP as the primary treatment option in cT3b/4 PCa patients is related to age and comorbidity status.

Multi-colour FISH in oesophageal adenocarcinoma-predictors of prognosis independent of stage and grade.

BACKGROUND Oesophageal adenocarcinoma or Barrett's adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing in incidence and stratification of prognosis might improve disease management. Multi-colour fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) investigating ERBB2, MYC, CDKN2A and ZNF217 has recently shown promising results for the diagnosis of dysplasia and cancer using cytological samples. METHODS To identify markers of prognosis we targeted four selected gene loci using multi-colour FISH applied to a tissue microarray containing 130 EAC samples. Prognostic predictors (P1, P2, P3) based on genomic copy numbers of the four loci were statistically assessed to stratify patients according to overall survival in combination with clinical data. RESULTS The best stratification into favourable and unfavourable prognoses was shown by P1, percentage of cells with less than two ZNF217 signals; P2, percentage of cells with fewer ERBB2- than ZNF217 signals; and P3, overall ratio of ERBB2-/ZNF217 signals. Median survival times for P1 were 32 vs 73 months, 28 vs 73 months for P2; and 27 vs 65 months for P3. Regarding each tumour grade P2 subdivided patients into distinct prognostic groups independently within each grade, with different median survival times of at least 35 months. CONCLUSIONS Cell signal number of the ERBB2 and ZNF217 loci showed independence from tumour stage and differentiation grade. The prognostic value of multi-colour FISH-assays is applicable to EAC and is superior to single markers.

Information Technology Outsourcing: Towards Sustainable Business Value

This book attempts to synthesize research that contributes to a better understanding of how to reach sustainable business value through information systems (IS) outsourcing. Important topics in this realm are how IS outsourcing can contribute to innovation, how it can be dynamically governed, how to cope with its increasing complexity through multi-vendor arrangements, how service quality standards can be met, how corporate social responsibility can be upheld, and how to cope with increasing demands of internationalization and new sourcing models, such as crowdsourcing and platform-based cooperation. These issues are viewed from either the client or vendor perspective, or both. The book should be of interest to all academics and students in the fields of Information Systems, Management, and Organization as well as corporate executives and professionals who seek a more profound analysis and understanding of the underlying factors and mechanisms of outsourcing.

Information Systems Outsourcing: Towards Sustainable Business Value

This book attempts to synthesize research that contributes to a better understanding of how to reach sustainable business value through information systems (IS) outsourcing. Important topics in this realm are how IS outsourcing can contribute to innovation, how it can be dynamically governed, how to cope with its increasing complexity through multi-vendor arrangements, how service quality standards can be met, how corporate social responsibility can be upheld and how to cope with increasing demands of internationalization and new sourcing models, such as crowdsourcing and platform-based cooperation. These issues are viewed from either the client or vendor perspective, or both. The book should be of interest to all academics and students in the fields of Information Systems, Management and Organization as well as corporate executives and professionals who seek a more profound analysis and understanding of the underlying factors and mechanisms of outsourcing.

Prognostic and diagnostic value of EEG signal coupling measures in coma.

OBJECTIVE Our aim was to assess the diagnostic and predictive value of several quantitative EEG (qEEG) analysis methods in comatose patients. METHODS In 79 patients, coupling between EEG signals on the left-right (inter-hemispheric) axis and on the anterior-posterior (intra-hemispheric) axis was measured with four synchronization measures: relative delta power asymmetry, cross-correlation, symbolic mutual information and transfer entropy directionality. Results were compared with etiology of coma and clinical outcome. Using cross-validation, the predictive value of measure combinations was assessed with a Bayes classifier with mixture of Gaussians. RESULTS Five of eight measures showed a statistically significant difference between patients grouped according to outcome; one measure revealed differences in patients grouped according to the etiology. Interestingly, a high level of synchrony between the left and right hemisphere was associated with mortality on intensive care unit, whereas higher synchrony between anterior and posterior brain regions was associated with survival. The combination with the best predictive value reached an area-under the curve of 0.875 (for patients with post anoxic encephalopathy: 0.946). CONCLUSIONS EEG synchronization measures can contribute to clinical assessment, and provide new approaches for understanding the pathophysiology of coma. SIGNIFICANCE Prognostication in coma remains a challenging task. qEEG could improve current multi-modal approaches.

Accelerated magnetic resonance diffusion tensor imaging of the median nerve using simultaneous multi-slice echo planar imaging with blipped CAIPIRINHA.

PURPOSE To investigate the feasibility of MR diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of the median nerve using simultaneous multi-slice echo planar imaging (EPI) with blipped CAIPIRINHA. MATERIALS AND METHODS After federal ethics board approval, MR imaging of the median nerves of eight healthy volunteers (mean age, 29.4 years; range, 25-32) was performed at 3 T using a 16-channel hand/wrist coil. An EPI sequence (b-value, 1,000 s/mm(2); 20 gradient directions) was acquired without acceleration as well as with twofold and threefold slice acceleration. Fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD) and quality of nerve tractography (number of tracks, average track length, track homogeneity, anatomical accuracy) were compared between the acquisitions using multivariate ANOVA and the Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS Acquisition time was 6:08 min for standard DTI, 3:38 min for twofold and 2:31 min for threefold acceleration. No differences were found regarding FA (standard DTI: 0.620 ± 0.058; twofold acceleration: 0.642 ± 0.058; threefold acceleration: 0.644 ± 0.061; p ≥ 0.217) and MD (standard DTI: 1.076 ± 0.080 mm(2)/s; twofold acceleration: 1.016 ± 0.123 mm(2)/s; threefold acceleration: 0.979 ± 0.153 mm(2)/s; p ≥ 0.074). Twofold acceleration yielded similar tractography quality compared to standard DTI (p > 0.05). With threefold acceleration, however, average track length and track homogeneity decreased (p = 0.004-0.021). CONCLUSION Accelerated DTI of the median nerve is feasible. Twofold acceleration yields similar results to standard DTI. KEY POINTS • Standard DTI of the median nerve is limited by its long acquisition time. • Simultaneous multi-slice acquisition is a new technique for accelerated DTI. • Accelerated DTI of the median nerve yields similar results to standard DTI.

Adjustment methods of national input-output tables for harmonized and consistent multi-regional input-output databases

Despite the fact that input–output (IO) tables form a central part of the System of National Accounts, each individual country's national IO table exhibits more or less different features and characteristics, reflecting the country's socioeconomic idiosyncrasies. Consequently, the compilers of a multi-regional input–output table (MRIOT) are advised to thoroughly examine the conceptual as well as methodological differences among countries in the estimation of basic statistics for national IO tables and, if necessary, to carry out pre-adjustment of these tables into a common format prior to the MRIOT compilation. The objective of this study is to provide a practical guide for harmonizing national IO tables to construct a consistent MRIOT, referring to the adjustment practices used by the Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO) in compiling the Asian International Input–Output Table.

Multi-fluid Eulerian model of an electrospray in a host gas.

An Eulerian multifluid model is used to describe the evolution of an electrospray plume and the flow induced in the surrounding gas by the drag of the electrically charged spray droplets in the space between an injection electrode containing the electrospray source and a collector electrode. The spray is driven by the voltage applied between the two electrodes. Numerical computations and order-of-magnitude estimates for a quiescent gas show that the droplets begin to fly back toward the injection electrode at a certain critical value of the flux of droplets in the spray, which depends very much on the electrical conditions at the injection electrode. As the flux is increased toward its critical value, the electric field induced by the charge of the droplets partially balances the field due to the applied voltage in the vicinity of the injection electrode, leading to a spray that rapidly broadens at a distance from its origin of the order of the stopping distance at which the droplets lose their initial momentum and the effect of their inertia becomes negligible. The axial component of the electric field first changes sign in this region, causing the fly back. The flow induced in the gas significantly changes this picture in the conditions of typical experiments. A gas plume is induced by the drag of the droplets whose entrainment makes the radius of the spray away from the injection electrode smaller than in a quiescent gas, and convects the droplets across the region of negative axial electric field that appears around the origin of the spray when the flux of droplets is increased. This suppresses fly back and allows much higher fluxes to be reached than are possible in a quiescent gas. The limit of large droplet-to-gas mass ratio is discussed. Migration of satellite droplets to the shroud of the spray is reproduced by the Eulerian model, but this process is also affected by the motion of the gas. The gas flow preferentially pushes satellite droplets from the shroud to the core of the spray when the effect of the inertia of the droplets becomes negligible, and thus opposes the well-established electrostatic/inertial mechanism of segregation and may end up concentrating satellite droplets in an intermediate radial region of the spray.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

State space models for multi-setup operational modal analysis

Operational Modal Analysis consists on estimate the modal parameters of a structure (natural frequencies, damping ratios and modal vectors) from output-only vibration measurements. The modal vectors can be only estimated where a sensor is placed, so when the number of available sensors is lower than the number of tested points, it is usual to perform several tests changing the position of the sensors from one test to the following (multiple setups of sensors): some sensors stay at the same position from setup to setup, and the other sensors change the position until all the tested points are covered. The permanent sensors are then used to merge the mode shape estimated at each setup (or partial modal vectors) into global modal vectors. Traditionally, the partial modal vectors are estimated independently setup by setup, and the global modal vectors are obtained in a postprocess phase. In this work we present two state space models that can be used to process all the recorded setups at the same time, and we also present how these models can be estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The result is that the global mode shape of each mode is obtained automatically, and subsequently, a single value for the natural frequency and damping ratio of the mode is computed. Finally, both models are compared using real measured data.

Efficient taxation of multi-national enterprises in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 5/2003

Current arrangements for multi-national company taxation in EU are plagued by severe conceptual and administrative problems, leading to high compliance costs, considerable uncertainty and ample room for abuse. Integration is amplifying these difficulties. There are two possible approaches in designing an efficient trans-border corporate tax system for the European Union. The first is to consolidate the EU-wide operations of MNEs, using an agreed common base as the reference variable, and then to apportion this total tax base using some presumptive indicators of activity in each tax jurisdiction – hence, implicitly, of the likely benefits stemming from each location. The apportionment formula should respect requisites of neutrality between productive factors and forms of corporate financing. A radically different approach is also available that offers considerable advantages in terms of efficiency, simplicity and decentralisation, including full administrative autonomy of national tax authorities. It entails abandoning corporate income as the relevant tax base and taxing at a moderate rate some agreed measure of business activity such as company value added, sales or employment. These are the variables usually considered in formula apportionment, but they would apply directly without having first to go through the complications of EU-wide consolidation based on a common-base definition. Reference to a broad base, with no exemptions or deductions, would allow to set low statutory rates.