Data modelling in the beginning school years

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling. Some of the core components of data modelling are addressed. A selection of results from the first data modelling activity implemented during the second year (2010; second grade) of a current longitudinal study are reported. Data modelling involves investigations of meaningful phenomena, deciding what is worthy of attention (identifying complex attributes), and then progressing to organising, structuring, visualising, and representing data. Reported here are children's abilities to identify diverse and complex attributes, sort and classify data in different ways, and create and interpret models to represent their data.

Data modeling in elementary and middle school classes : a shared experience

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the elementary school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modeling. Data modeling involves investigations of meaningful phenomena, deciding what is worthy of attention, and then progressing to organizing, structuring, visualizing, and representing data. Reported here are some findings from a two-part activity (Baxter Brown’s Picnic and Planning a Picnic) implemented at the end of the second year of a current three-year longitudinal study (grade levels 1-3). Planning a Picnic was also implemented in a grade 7 class to provide an opportunity for the different age groups to share their products. Addressed here are the grade 2 children’s predictions for missing data in Baxter Brown’s Picnic, the questions posed and representations created by both grade levels in Planning a Picnic, and the metarepresentational competence displayed in the grade levels’ sharing of their products for Planning a Picnic.

Data modelling with first-grade students

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling. Results are reported from the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study in which three classes of first-grade children (6-year-olds) and their teachers engaged in data modelling activities. The theme of Looking after our Environment, part of the children’s science curriculum, provided the task context. The goals for the two activities addressed here included engaging children in core components of data modelling, namely, selecting attributes, structuring and representing data, identifying variation in data, and making predictions from given data. Results include the various ways in which children represented and re represented collected data, including attribute selection, and the metarepresentational competence they displayed in doing so. The “data lenses” through which the children dealt with informal inference (variation and prediction) are also reported.

Four years on – are the Gazelles still running? A longitudinal study of firm performance after a period of rapid growth

Gazelles, or very rapidly growing firms, are important because they contribute disproportionately to economic growth. There is a concern that some of these firms pursue growth too aggressively resulting in lower subsequent performance. We investigate the relationship between growth and subsequent profitability for gazelle firms, and how this is moderated by firm strategy. Previous empirical research regarding the growth-profitability relationship for firms in general is rather inconclusive, with only one study specifically investigating gazelle firms. Likewise, there are theoretical arguments both for and against growth leading to profitability that equally apply to gazelle firms. Further, while contingency theory might suggest the relationship depends on the firm’s strategy, earlier studies have not investigated this relationship. We address these questions using longitudinal data (seven years) for a sample of 964 Danish Gazelle firms. Our study finds a clear positive relationship between growth and subsequent profitability among gazelle firms. Moreover, this relationship is stronger for firms pursuing a broad market strategy rather than a focus or niche strategy. An important managerial implication is that the growth strategy should be clearly integrated with the general strategic orientation of the firm.

Pregnancy losses in young Australian women : findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

INTRODUCTION: Little research has examined recognized pregnancy losses in a general population. Data from an Australian cohort study provide an opportunity to quantify this aspect of fecundity at a population level. METHOD: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 28-33 years in 2006 (n = 9,145) completed up to 4 mailed surveys over 10 years. Participants were categorized according to the recognized outcome of their pregnancies, including live birth, miscarriage/stillbirth, termination/ectopic, or no pregnancy. RESULTS: At age 18-23, more women reported terminations (7%) than miscarriages (4%). By 28-33 years, the cumulative frequency of miscarriage (15%) was as common as termination (16%). For women aged 28-33 years who had ever been pregnant (n = 5,343), pregnancy outcomes were as follows: birth only (50%); loss only (18%); and birth and loss (32%), of which half (16%) were birth and miscarriage. A comparison between first miscarriage and first birth (no miscarriage) showed that most first miscarriages occurred in women aged 18-23 years who also reported a first birth at the same survey (15%). Half (51%) of all first births and first miscarriages in women aged 18-19 ended in miscarriage. Early childbearers (<28 years) often had miscarriages around the same time period as their first live birth, suggesting proactive family formation. Delayed childbearers (32-33 years) had more first births than first miscarriages. CONCLUSION: Recognized pregnancy losses are an important measure of fecundity in the general population because they indicate successful conception and maintenance of pregnancy to varying reproductive endpoints.

Infertility, medical advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation: a population perspective from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

OBJECTIVE: To identify the factors associated with infertility, seeking advice and treatment with fertility hormones and/or in vitro fertilisation (IVF) among a general population of women. METHODS: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health aged 28-33 years in 2006 had completed up to four mailed surveys over 10 years (n=9,145). Parsimonious multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the socio-demographic, biological (including reproductive histories), and behavioural factors associated with infertility, advice and hormonal/IVF treatment. RESULTS: For women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant (n=5,936), 17% reported infertility. Among women with infertility (n=1031), 72% (n=728) sought advice but only 50% (n=356) used hormonal/IVF treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when: they had never been pregnant (OR=7.2, 95% CI 5.6-9.1) or had a history of miscarriage (OR range=1.5-4.0) than those who had given birth (and never had a miscarriage or termination). CONCLUSION: Only one-third of women with infertility used hormonal and/or IVF treatment. Women with PCOS or endometriosis were the most proactive in having sought advice and used hormonal/IVF treatment. IMPLICATIONS: Raised awareness of age-related declining fertility is important for partnered women aged approximately 30 years to encourage pregnancy during their prime reproductive years and reduce the risk of infertility.

Looking Yonder : Longitudinal Research and Evaluation of the Yonder Participative Arts-based Learning Model Report 2010-2012

Since 2007, KITE Arts Education Program @ QPAC has been engaged in a series of arts and drama-based experiences for students in selected primary schools on the edges of Brisbane and in regional Queensland. The in-school workshop experiences of the program have culminated in a performance by the children for their school community, parents and carers at the Queensland Performing Arts Centre or a regional cultural venue. In conducting an analysis of the Yonder project, the researcher aimed to provide evidence of outcomes brought about through participation by schools, school staff, students and their communities in the Yonder project. To develop longitudinal data project initiators, participants were interviewed at six-monthly intervals to establish patterns of engagement and participation. The report analyses arts-based workshops conducted by the teacher artist in edge-city Brisbane and a regional centre; interviews with teachers and school administrators from the participating schools; interviews with teacher artist and professional artists; interviews with community partners; teacher professional development workshops; community-based workshops; performance outcomes that were the culminating events of the workshop program; student work samples and student reflections on the program. This document covers data and project outputs from February 2010 to July 2012. There have been five iterations of the Yonder project since its commencement in mid-2009 — three in regional Queensland (February–April 2010; February–May 2011; February–May 2012) and two in edge-city1 Brisbane (July–September 2010; August–October 2011). This report is a result of a research partnership between Queensland Performing Arts Centre and Queensland University of Technology (QUT) Creative Industries Faculty(Drama).

Young children’s metarepresentational competence in data modelling

longitudinal study of data modelling across grades 1-3. The activity engaged children in designing, implementing, and analysing a survey about their new playground. Data modelling involves investigations of meaningful phenomena, deciding what is worthy of attention (identifying complex attributes), and then progressing to organising, structuring, visualising, and representing data. The core components of data modelling addressed here are children’s structuring and representing of data, with a focus on their display of metarepresentational competence (diSessa, 2004). Such competence includes students’ abilities to invent or design a variety of new representations, explain their creations, understand the role they play, and critique and compare the adequacy of representations. Reported here are the ways in which the children structured and represented their data, the metarepresentational competence displayed, and links between their metarepresentational competence and conceptual competence.

Curbing resource consumption using team-based feedback : paper printing in a longitudinal case study

This paper details a team-based feedback approach for reducing resource consumption. The approach uses paper printing within office environments as a case study. It communicates the print usage of each participant’s team rather than the participant’s individual print usage. Feedback is provided weekly via emails and contains normative information, along with eco-metrics and team-based comparative statistics. The approach was empirically evaluated to study the effectiveness of the feedback method. The experiment comprised of 16 people belonging to 4 teams with data on their print usage gathered over 58 weeks, using the first 30-35 weeks as a baseline. The study showed a significant reduction in individual printing with an average of 28%. The experiment confirms the underlying hypothesis that participants are persuaded to reduce their print usage in order to improve the overall printing behaviour of their teams. The research provides clear pathways for future research to qualitatively investigate our findings.

Reproductive health: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Chapter 5: fertility and infertility

Chapter 5: Fertility and infertility. p52-70. This section describes patterns of fertility across Surveys 1 to 4 among the cohort of women who were born in 1973-1978. This section includes the examination of pregnancy outcomes including both live births and pregnancy losses (stillbirths, miscarriages, terminations and ectopic pregnancies). This section also examines the prevalence of self-reported problems with fertility and whether these women sought advice and/or treatment. As women age they are more likely to experience infertility and, with little other data available, the ALSWH provides an important opportunity to examine this problem and the related use of health services. 1. Pregnancy losses are common. Half of the women who report a pregnancy outcome at Survey 4 have experienced a pregnancy loss. 2. More than one third (39%) of women who have experienced a live birth by Survey 4 have also experienced a pregnancy loss. 3. For every ten women aged 28-33 years in 2006: four women had not had been pregnant, five women had a live birth (with or without a recognised pregnancy loss), and one woman had a recognised pregnancy loss only. 4. Among women who had tried to conceive or had been pregnant, one-in-six had experienced infertility. (i.e. tried unsuccessfully to get pregnant for 12 months or more) 5. The most significant factors associated with having infertility, seeking advice and using treatment were: polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis and miscarriage. 6. Of the women who reported infertility, two-thirds sought advice but only half used treatment. 7. Most of the women who used fertility treatment had used low cost and non-invasive methods.

Using a pharmacokinetic model to interpret biomonitoring data of PBDEs in the Australian population

From human biomonitoring data that are increasingly collected in the United States, Australia, and in other countries from large-scale field studies, we obtain snap-shots of concentration levels of various persistent organic pollutants (POPs) within a cross section of the population at different times. Not only can we observe the trends within this population with time, but we can also gain information going beyond the obvious time trends. By combining the biomonitoring data with pharmacokinetic modeling, we can re-construct the time-variant exposure to individual POPs, determine their intrinsic elimination half-lives in the human body, and predict future levels of POPs in the population. Different approaches have been employed to extract information from human biomonitoring data. Pharmacokinetic (PK) models were combined with longitudinal data1, with single2 or multiple3 average concentrations of a cross-sectional data (CSD), or finally with multiple CSD with or without empirical exposure data4. In the latter study, for the first time, the authors based their modeling outputs on two sets of CSD and empirical exposure data, which made it possible that their model outputs were further constrained due to the extensive body of empirical measurements. Here we use a PK model to analyze recent levels of PBDE concentrations measured in the Australian population. In this study, we are able to base our model results on four sets5-7 of CSD; we focus on two PBDE congeners that have been shown3,5,8-9 to differ in intake rates and half-lives with BDE-47 being associated with high intake rates and a short half-life and BDE-153 with lower intake rates and a longer half-life. By fitting the model to PBDE levels measured in different age groups in different years, we determine the level of intake of BDE-47 and BDE-153, as well as the half-lives of these two chemicals in the Australian population.

Working for a better life : longitudinal evidence on the predictors of employment among recently arrived refugee migrant men living in Australia

Although a number of studies have investigated the predictors of employment among refugee migrants, there is a dearth of evidence from longitudinal data. This study investigated the cross-sectional and longitudinal predictors of employment among 233 adult refugee men living in South-East Queensland, Australia. Participants were interviewed four times at six-month intervals between 2008 and 2010. Using a conceptual model developed from the literature, Generalised Estimating Equations were used to model the predictors of employment. Over time, the employment rate increased from 44 percent to 56 percent. Region of birth, length of time in Australia, seeking employment through job service providers and informal networks, and owning a car were significant predictors of employment. Contrary to previous research, English language proficiency was not a significant predictor when other variables were controlled for. Recognition of overseas skills and qualifications decreased the chances of finding employment. The policy and program implications are discussed.

A longitudinal study of grieving in family caregivers of people with dementia

A longitudinal study of grieving in family caregivers of people with dementia Recent research into dementia has identified the long term impact that the role of care giving for a relative with dementia has on family members This is largely due to the cognitive decline that characterises dementia and the losses that can be directly attributed to this. These losses include loss of memories, relationships and intimacy, and are often ambiguous so that the grief that accompanies them is commonly not recognised or acknowledged. The role and impact of pre-death or anticipatory grief has not previously been widely considered as a factor influencing health and well-being of family caregivers. Studies of grief in caregivers of a relative with dementia have concluded that grief is one of the greatest barriers to care giving and is a primary determinant of caregiver well-being. The accumulation of losses, in conjunction with experiences unique to dementia care giving, place family caregivers at risk of complicated grief. This occurs when integration of the death does not take place following bereavement and has been associated with a range of negative health outcomes. The aim of this research was to determine the influence of grief, in addition to other factors representing both positive and negative aspects of the role, on the health related quality of life of family caregivers of people with dementia, prior to and following the death of their relative with dementia. An exploratory research project underpinned by a conceptual framework of caregivers’ adaptation in the context of subjective appraisal of the strains and gains in their role was undertaken. The research comprised three studies. Study 1 was a scoping study that involved a series of semi-structured interviews with thirteen participants who were family caregivers of people with severe dementia or whose relative with dementia had died in the previous twelve months. The results of this study in conjunction with factors identified in the literature informed data collection for the further studies. Study 2 was a cross sectional survey of fifty caregivers recruited when their relative was in the moderate to severe stage of dementia. This study provided the baseline data for Study 3, a prospective cohort follow up study. Study 3 consisted of seventeen participants followed up at two time points after the death of their relative with dementia: six weeks and then six months following the death of the relative with dementia. The scoping study indicated that differences in appraisal of the care giving role and encounters with health professionals were related to levels of grief of caregivers prior to and following the death of the relative with dementia. This was supported in the baseline and follow up studies. In the baseline study, after adjusting for all variables in multivariate regression models, subjective appraisal of burden was found to make a significant contribution (p<.05) to mental health related quality of life. The two dependent variables, anticipatory grief and mental health related quality of life, were significantly (p<.01) correlated at a bivariate level. In the follow up study, linear mixed modelling and multiple regression analysis of data found that subjective appraisal of burden and resilience were significantly associated (p<.05 and p<.01, respectively) with mental health related quality of life over time. In addition, bereavement and complicated grief were significantly associated (p<.05) with mental health following the death of the relative. In this study social support and satisfaction with end of life care were found to be statistically associated (p<.05) with physical health related quality of life over time. The strong relationship between grief of caregivers and their health related quality of life over the entire care giving trajectory and period following the death of their relative highlights the urgent need for further research and interventions in this area. Overall results indicate that addressing the risk and protective factors including subjective appraisal of their care giving role, resilience, social support and satisfaction with end of life care of their relative, has the potential to both ameliorate negative health outcomes and to promote improved health for these caregivers. This research provides important information for development of targeted and appropriate interventions that aim to promote resilience and reduce the personal burden on caregivers of people with dementia.

PP39 Mental health outcomes of abortion for young women aged 18-23 years, findings from an Australian longitudinal birth cohort study

Background: Few longitudinal studies have examined the mental health outcomes of women after abortion and the results are controversial. Despite falling birth rates, teenage pregnancies remain high and over half (53%) of teenage and a third (36%) of young adult (20_24 years) pregnancies are aborted. Recent findings from a NewZealand longitudinal birth cohort linked abortion and subsequent psychiatric disorders in young women. Limited Australian data is available examining this association. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater-University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP). Running since 1981, this is a prospective birth cohort study of 7223 mothers and children. At the 21-year follow-up 3775 (52.3% of the original cohort) participants were surveyed, of these 1132 young women had complete data on pregnancy outcomes and psychiatric diagnoses from a structured interview. Binary logistic regression examined the association between five lifetime psychiatric disorders (nicotine, alcohol, cannabis, affective and anxiety disorders) and ever having an abortion or birth. Analyses adjusted for age, concurrent and maternal sociodemographic factors, and factors related to adolescent behaviour, previous mental health and family functioning. Results: A quarter of the young women (n_261) reported at least one pregnancy and 32.6% had an abortion. Abortion was significantly associated with age-adjusted OR for all the lifetime disorders. After full adjustment abortion remained significantly associated with nicotine (OR_2.1, 1.2_3.6) and alcohol disorders (OR_2.0, 1.3_3.3). Conclusion: The findings suggest that abortion in young women is independently associated with an increased risk of nicotine and alcohol disorders.