The Export Base Model with a Supply-Side Stimulus to the Export Sector

Paper delivered at the Western Regional Science Association Annual Conference, Sedona, Arizona, February, 2010.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

The evolution of inbred social systems in spiders and other organisms: from short-term gains to long-term evolutionary dead-ends?

The question of why some social systems have evolved close inbreeding is particularly intriguing given expected short- and long-term negative effects of this breeding system. Using social spiders as a case study, we quantitatively show that the potential costs of avoiding inbreeding through dispersal and solitary living could have outweighed the costs of inbreeding depression in the origin of inbred spider sociality. We further review the evidence that despite being favored in the short term, inbred spider sociality may constitute in the long run an evolutionary dead end. We also review other cases, such as the naked mole rats and some bark and ambrosia beetles, mites, psocids, thrips, parasitic ants, and termites, in which inbreeding and sociality are associated and the evidence for and against this breeding system being, in general, an evolutionary dead end.

Non-Quasi-Competitiveness and Stability in Cournot's Model

This paper retakes previous work of the authors, about the relationship between non-quasi-competitiveness (the increase in price caused by an increase in the number of oligopolists) and stability of the equilibrium in the classical Cournot oligopoly model. Though it has been widely accepted in the literature that the loss of quasi-competitiveness is linked, in the long run as new firms entered the market, to instability of the model, the authors in their previous work put forward a model in which a situation of monopoly changed to duopoly losing quasi-competitiveness but maintaining the stability of the equilibrium. That model could not, at the time, be extended to any number of oligopolists. The present paper exhibits such an extension. An oligopoly model is shown in which the loss of quasi-competitiveness resists the presence in the market of as many firms as one wishes and where the successive Cournot's equilibrium points are unique and asymptotically stable. In this way, for the first time, the conjecture that non-quasi- competitiveness and instability were equivalent in the long run, is proved false.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic discount factors. In particular, the volatility of recursive utility-based stochastic discount factor with contemporaneous growth explains between 9 and 34 percent of future changes in industrial production at short and long horizons respectively. They also explain ex-ante uncertainty and risk aversion. However, future stock market cycles are better explained by a similar stochastic discount factor with long-run consumption growth. This specification of the stochastic discount factor presents higher volatility and lower pricing errors than the specification with contemporaneous consumption growth.

Will EMU increase eurosclerosis?

In this paper we study the relationship between labor market institutions and monetary policy. We use a simple macroeconomic framework to show how optimal monetary policy rules depend on labor institutions (labor adjustment costs, and nominal and real wage rigitidy) and social preferences regarding inflation, employment, and real wages. We also calibrate our model tocompute how the change in social welfare brought about by giving up monetary policy as a result of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) depends on institutions and preferences. We then use the calibrated model to analyze how EMU affects the incentives for labor market reform, both for reformsthat increase the economy's adjustment potential and for those that affect the long-run unemployment rate.

Pollution stress on aquatic microbial communities

Thousands of chemical compounds enter the natural environment but many have unknown effects and consequences, in particular at low concentrations. This thesis work contributes to our understanding of pollution effects by using bacteria as test organisms. Bacteria are important for this question because some of them degrade and transform pollutants into less harmful compounds, but secondly because they themselves can be inhibited in their reproduction by exposure to toxic compounds. When inhibitory effects occur this may change the composition of the microbial com¬munity in the long run, leading to altered or diminished ecosystem services by those communities. As a result chemicals of anthropogenic origin may accumulate and per¬sist in the environment, and finally, affect higher organisms as well. In addition to acquiring basic understanding of pollutant effects at low concentrations on bacterial communities an applied goal of this thesis work was to develop bacteria-based tests to screen new organic chemicals for toxicity and biodégradation. In the first part of this work we developed a flow cytometry-based assay on SYT09 plus ethidium-bromide or propidium-iodide stained cells of Pseudomonas ûuorescens exposed or not to a variety of pollutants under oligotrophic growth conditions. Flow cytometry (FC) allows fast and accurate counting of bacterial cells under simul¬taneous assessment of their physiological state, in particular in combination with different fluorescent dyes. Here we employed FC and fluorescent dyes to monitor the effect that pollutants may exert on Pseudomonas ûuorescens SV3. First we designed an oligotrophic growth test, which enabled us to follow population growth at low densities (104 - 10 7 cells per ml) using 0.1 mM sodium acetate as carbon source. Cells in the oligotrophic milieu were then exposed or not to a variety of common pollutants, such as 2-chlorobiphenyl (2CBP), naphthalene (NAH), 4-chlorophenol (4CP), tetradecane (TD), mercury chloride (HgCl2) or benzene, in different dosages. Exposed culture samples were stained with SYT09 (green fluorescent dye binding nucleic acids, generally staining all cells) in combination with propidium iodide (PI) or ethidium bromide (EB), both dyes being membrane integrity indicators. We ob- served that most of the tested compounds decreased population growth in a dosage- dependent manner. SYT09/PI or SYT09/EB staining then revealed that chemical exposure led to arisal of subpopulations of live and injured or dead cells. By modeling population growth on the total cell numbers in population or only the subpopulation of live cells we inferred that even in stressed populations live cells multiply at rates no different to unexposed controls. The net decrease in population growth would thus be a consequence of more and more cells being not able to multiply at all, rather than all cells multiplying at slower rates. In addition, the proportion of injured cells correlated to the compound dosage. We concluded that the oligotrophic test may be useful to asses toxicity of unknown chemicals on a variety of model bacteria. Mul¬tiple tests can be run in parallel and effects are rapidly measured within a period of 8 hours. Interestingly, in the same exposure tests with P. fluorescens SV3 we observed that some chemicals which did not lead to a reduction of net population growth rates did cause measurable effects on live cells. This was mainly observed in cells within the live subpopulation as an increase of the EB fluorescence signal. We showed that SYT09/EB is a more useful combination of dyes than SYT09/PI because PI fluorescence tend to increase only when cells are effectively dead, but not so much in live cells (less then twofold). In contrast, EB geometric mean fluorescence in live cells increased up to eightfold after exposure to toxic compounds. All compounds even at the lowest concentration caused a measurable increase in EB geometric mean fluorescence especially after 2 h incubation time. This effect was found to be transient for cells exposed to 2CBP and 4CP, but chronic for cells incubated with TD and NAH (ultimately leading to cell death). In order to understand the mechanism underlying the observed effects we used known membrane or energy uncouplers. The pattern of EB signal increase in chemical-exposed populations resembled mostly that of EDTA, although EB fluorescence in EDTA-treated or pasteurized cells was even higher than after exposure to the four test chemicals. We conclude that the ability of cells to efflux EB under equilibrium conditions is an appropriate measure for the potential of a chemical to exert toxicity. Since most bacterial species possess efflux systems for EB that all require cellular energy, our test should be more widely relevant to infer toxicity effects of chemical exposure on the physiological status of the bacterial cell. To better understand the effect of toxicant exposure on efflux defense systems, we studied 2-hydroxybiphenyl toxicity to Pseudomonas azeiaica HBP1. We showed that 2-HBP exerts toxicity even to P. azelaica HBP1, but only at concentrations higher than 0.5 mM. Above this concentration transient loss of membrane polarization and integrity occurred, which we conclude from staining of growing cells with fluorescent dyes. Cells finally recover and resume growth on 2HBP. The high resistance of P. azelaica HBP1 to 2-HBP was found to be the result of an efficient MexABOprM- type efflux pump system counteracting passive influx of this compound into the membrane and cellular interior. Mutants with disrupted mexA, mexB and oprM genes did no longer grow on 2-HBP at concentrations above 100 μΜ, whereas below this concentration we found 2-HBP-concentration dependent decrease of growth rate. The MexAB-OprM system in P. azeiaica HBP1 is indeed an efflux pump for ethidium bromide as well. By introducing gfp reporter fusions responsive to intracellular 2- HBP concentrations into HBP1 wild-type or the mutants we demonstrated that 2HBP enters into the cells in a similar way. In contrast, the reporter system in the wild-type cells does not react to 2-HBP at an outside concentration of 2.4 μΜ, whereas in mutant cells it does. This suggests that wild-type cells pump 2-HBP to the outside very effectively preventing accumulation of 2-HBP. 2HBP metabolism, therefore, is not efficient enough to lower the intracellular concentration and prevent toxicity. We conclude that P. azelaica HBP1 resistance to 2-HBP is mainly due to an efficient efflux system and that 2HBP in high concentrations exerts narcotic effects on the bacterial membrane. In the part of this thesis, we investigated the possibilities of bacteria to degrade pollutants at low concentrations (1 mg per L and below). As test components we used 2-hydroxybiphenyl, antibiotics and a variety of fragrances, many of which are known to be difficult to biodegrade. By using accurate counting of low numbers of bacterial cells we could demonstrate that specific growth on these compounds is possible. We demonstrated the accuracy of FC counting at low cell numbers (down to 103 bacterial cells per ml). Then we tested whether bacterial population growth could be specifically monitored at the expense of low substrate concentrations, us¬ing P. azelaica HBP1. A perfect relationship was found between growth rate, yield and 2-HBP concentrations in the range of 0.1 up to 5 mg per L. Mixing P. azelaica within sludge, however, suggested that growth yields in a mixed community can be much lower than in pure culture, perhaps because of loss of metabolic intermediates. We then isolated new strains from activated sludge using 2-HBP or antibiotics (Nal, AMP, SMX) at low concentrations (0.1-1 mg per L) as sole carbon and energy sub¬strate and PAO microdishes. The purified strains were then examined for growth on their respective substrate, which interestingly, showed that all strains can not with¬stand higher than 1 or 10 mg per L concentrations of target substrate. Thus, bacteria must exist that contribute to compound degradation at low pollutant concentrations but are inhibited at higher concentrations. Finally we tested whether specific biomass growth (in number of cells) at the expense of pollutants can also be detected with communities as starting material. Hereto, we focused on a number of fragrance chemicals and measured community biomass increase by flow cytometry cell counting on two distinct starter communities: (i) diluted Lake Geneva water, and dilute activated sludge from a wastewater treatment plant. We observed that most of the test compounds indeed resulted in significant biomass increase in the starter community compared to a no-carbon added control, but activated sludge and lake Geneva water strongly differed (almost mutually ex¬clusive) in their capacity to degrade the test chemicals. In two cases for activated sludge the same type of microbial community developed upon compound exposure, as concluded from transcription fragment length polymorphism analysis on community purified and PCR amplified 16S rRNA gene fragments. To properly test compound biodegradability it is thus important to use starter communities of different origin. We conclude that FC counting can be a valuable tool to screen chemicals for their biodegradability and toxicity. - Des milliers de produits chimiques sont libérés dans l'environnement mais beaucoup ont des effets inconnus, en particulier à basses concentrations. Ce travail de thèse contribue à notre comprehension des effets de la pollution en utilisant des bacteries comme des organismes-tests. Les bacteries sont importantes pour etudier cette ques¬tion car certaines d'entre elles peuvent degrader ou transformer les polluants, mais également parce qu'elles-mmes peuvent tre inhibees dans leur reproduction après avoit ete exposees à ces composes toxiques. Quand des effets inhibiteurs ont lieu, la composition de la communauté microbienne peut tre changee à long terme, ce qui mène à une reduction du service d'ecosystème offert par ces communautés. En consequence, après leur liberation dans l'environnement, les produits chimiques d'origine anthropogenique peuvent soit s'y accumuler et per¬sister, exerant ainsi des effets encore inconnus sur les organismes vivants. En plus d'acquérir des connaissances de base sur les effets des polluants à basses concentra¬tions sur les communautés microbiennes, un but applique de cette thèse était de développer des tests bases sur les bacteries afin d'identifier de nouveau composes pour leur toxicité ou leur biodégradation. Dans la première partie de ce travail, nous avons developpe un test base sur la cytometrie de flux (FC) sur des cellules de Pseudomonas fluorescens colorees par du bromure d'ethidium ou de l'iodure de propidium et exposees ou non à une palette de polluants sous des conditions de croissance oligotrophique. La cytometrie de flux est une technique qui connaît de nombreuses applications dans la microbiologie environ¬nementale. Cela est principalement du au fait qu'elle permet un comptage rapide et precis ainsi que l'évaluation de l'état physiologique, en particulier lorsqu'elle est combinée h des colorations fluorescentes. Ici, nous avons utilise la technique FC et des colorants fluorescents afin de mesurer l'effet que peuvent exercer certains pollu¬ants sur Pseudomonas ûuorescens SV3 . D'abord nous avons conu des tests oligo- trophiques qui nous permettent de suivre la croissance complète de cellules en culture h des densites faibles (104 -10 7 cellules par ml), sur de l'acetate de sodium à 0.1 mM, en presence ou absence de produits chimiques (2-chlorobiphenyl (2CBP), naphthalène (NAH), 4-chlorophenol (4CP), tetradecane (TD), chlorure de mercure(II) (HgCl2)) à différentes concentrations. Afin de montrer le devenir des bacteries tant au niveau de la cellule individuelle que celui de la population globale, après exposition à des series de composes chimiques, nous avons compte les cellules colorees avec du SYT09 (col¬orant fluorescent vert des acides nucléiques pour la discrimination des cellules par rapport au bruit de fond) en combinaison avec l'iodure de propidium (PI) ou le bromure d'ethidium (EB), indicateurs de l'intégrité de la membrane cellulaire avec FC. Nous avons observe que de nombreux composes testes avaient un effet sur la croissance bacterienne, resultant en une baisse du taux de reproduction de la pop¬ulation. En outre, la double coloration que nous avons utilisee dans cette etude SYT09/PI ou SYT09/EB a montre que les produits chimiques testes induisaient une reponse heterogène des cellules dans la population, divisant celle-ci en sous- populations "saine", "endommagee" ou "morte". Les nombres de cellules à partir du comptage et de la proportion de celles "saines" et "endommagees/mortes" ont ensuite ete utilises pour modeliser la croissance de P. ûuorescens SV3 exposee aux produits chimiques. La reduction nette dans la croissance de population est une consequence du fait que de plus en plus de cellules sont incapables de se reproduire, plutt que du fait d'une croissance plus lente de l'ensemble de la population. De plus, la proportion de cellules endommagees est correllee au dosage du compose chimique. Les résultats obtenus nous ont permis de conclure que le test oligotrophique que nous avons developpe peut tre utilise pour l'évaluation de la toxicité de produits chimiques sur différents modèles bacteriens. Des tests multiples peuvent tre lances en parallèle et les effets sont mesures en l'espace de huit heures. Par ailleurs, nous en déduisons que les produits chimiques exercént un effet sur la croissance des cellules de P. ûuorescens SV3, qui est heterogène parmi les cellules dans la population et depend du produit chimique. Il est intéressant de noter que dans les mmes tests d'exposition avec P. ûuorescens SV3, nous avons observe que certains composes qui n'ont pas conduit à une reduction du taux de la croissance nette de la population, ont cause des effets mesurables sur les cellule saines. Ceci a ete essentiellement observe dans la portion "saine" des cellules en tant qu'augmentation du signal de la fluorescence de 1ΈΒ. D'abord nous avons montre que SYT09/EB était une com¬binaison de colorants plus utile que celle de SYT09/PI parce que la fluorescence du PI a tendance à augmenter uniquement lorsque les cellules sont effectivement mortes, et non pas dans les cellules saines (moins de deux fois plus). Par opposi¬tion, la fluorescence moyenne de l'EB dans les cellules saines augmente jusqu'à huit fois plus après exposition aux composes toxiques. Tous les composes, mme aux plus basses concentrations, induisent une augmentation mesurable de la fluorescence moy¬enne de 1ΈΒ, plus particulièrement après deux heures d'incubation. Cet effet s'est revele tre transitoire pour les cellules exposees aux 2CNP et 4CP, mais est chro¬nique pour les cellules incubees avec le TD et le NAH (entranant la mort cellulaire). Afin de comprendre les mécanismes qui sous-tendent les effets observes, nous avons utilise des decoupleurs d'energie ou de membrane. L'augmentation du signal EB dans les populations causee par des produits chimiques ressemblait à celle exerce par le chelateur des ions divalents EDTA. Cependant, les intensités du signal EB des cellules exposees aux produits chimiques testees n'ont jamais atteint les valeurs des cellules traitees avec l'EDTA ou pasteurises. Nous en concluons que le test oli- gotrophique utilisant la coloration (SYT09/)EB des cellules exposees ou non à un produit chimique est utile afin d'evaluer l'effet toxique exerce par les polluants sur la physiologie bacterienne. Afin de mieux comprendre la reaction d'un système de defense par pompe à efflux après exposition à une toxine, nous avons étudié la toxicité du 2-hydroxybiphenyl (2-HBP) sur Pseudomonas azeiaica HBP1. Nous avons montre que le 2-HBP exerce une toxicité mme sur HBP1, mais uniquement à des concentrations supérieures à 0.5 mM. Au-dessus de cette concentration, des pertes transitoires d'intégrité et de polarization membranaire ont lieu, comme cela nous a ete montre par coloration des cellules en croissance. Les cellules sont finalement capables de se rétablir et de reprendre leur croissance sur 2-HBP. La forte resistance de P. azeiaica HBP1 h 2-HBP physiologie bacterienne s'est revele tre le résultat d'un système de pompe h efflux de type MexABOprM qui contre-balance l'influx passif de ce compose h travers la membrane. Nous avons montre, en construisant des mutants avec des insertions dans les gènes mexA, mexB and oprM et des fusions avec le gène rapporteur gfp, que l'altération de n'importe quelle partie du système d'efflux conduisait à accroître l'accumulation de 2-HBP dans la cellule, en comparaison avec la souche sauvage HBP1, provoquant une diminution de la resistance au 2-HBP ainsi qu'une baisse du taux de reproduction des cellules. Des systèmes d'efflux similaires sont répandus chez de nombreuses espèces bactériennes. Ils seraient responsables de la resistance aux produits chimiques tels que les colorants fluorescents (bromure d'ethidium) et des antibiotiques. Nous concluons que la resistance de P. azelaica HBP1 à 2-HBP est principalement due à un système d'efflux efficace et que 2-HBP, à des concentrations elevees, exerce un effet deletère sur la membrane bacterienne. En se basant sur le comptage des cellules avec la FC, nous avons developpe ensuite une methode pour evaluer la biodegradabilite de polluants tels que le 2-HBP ainsi que les antibiotiques (acide nalidixique (Nal), ampicilline (AMP) ou sulfamethoxazole (SMX)) à de faibles concentrations lmg par L et moins), par le suivi de la croissance spécifique sur le compose de cultures microbiennes pures et mixtes. En utilisant un comptage precis de faibles quantités de cellules nous avons pu demontrer que la croissance spécifique sur ces composes est possible. Nous avons pu illustrer la precision du comptage par cytometrie de flux à faible quantité de cellules (jusqu'à 10 3 cellules par ml). Ensuite, nous avons teste s'il était possible de suivre dynamiquement la croissance de la population de cellules sur faibles concentrations de substrats, en utilisant P. azelaica HBP1. Une relation parfaite a ete trouvee entre le taux de croissance, le rendement et les concentrations de 2-HBP (entre 0.1 et 5 mg par L). En mélangeant HBP1 à de la boue active, nous avons pu montrer que le rendement en communauté mixtes pouvait tre bien inférieur qu'en culture pure. Ceci étant peut tre le résultat d'une perte d'intermédiaires métaboliques. Nous avons ensuite isole de nouvelles souches à partir de la boue active en utilisant le 2-HBP ou des antibiotiques (Nal, AMP, SMX) h basses concentrations (0.1-1 mg par L) comme seules sources de carbone et d'energie. En combinaison avec ceci, nous avons également utilise des microplaques PAO. Les souches purifiees ont ensuite ete examinees pour leurs croissances sur leurs substrats respectifs. De faon intéressante, toutes ces souches ont montre qu'elles ne pouvaient pas survivre à des concentrations de substrats supérieures à 1 ou 10 mg par L. Ainsi, il existe des bacteries qui contribuent à la degradation de composes à basses concentrations de polluant mais sont inhibes lorsque ces concentrations deviennent plus hautes. Finalement, nous avons cherche à savoir s'il est possible de detecter une croissance spécifique à une biomasse au depend d'un polluant, en partant d'une communauté microbienne. Ainsi, nous nous sommes concentre sur certains composes et avons mesure l'augmentation de la biomasse d'une communauté grce à la cytometrie de flux. Nous avons compte deux communautés de depart distinctes: (i) une dilution d'eau du Lac Léman, et une dilution de boue active d'une station d'épuration. Nous avons observe que la plupart des composes testes ont entrane une augmentation de la biomasse de depart par rapport au control sans addition de source de carbone. Néanmoins, les échantillons du lac Léman et de la station d'épuration différaient largement (s'excluant mutuellement l'un l'autre) dans leur capacité à degrader les composes chimiques. Dans deux cas provenant de la station d'épuration, le mme type de communauté microbienne s'est developpe après exposition aux composes, comme l'a démontré l'analyse TRFLP sur les fragments d'ARN 16S purifie de la communauté et amplifie par PCR. Afin de tester correctement la biodegradabilite d'un compose, il est donc important d'utiliser des communautés de depart de différentes origines Nous en concluons que le comptage par cytometrie de flux peut tre un outil de grande utilité pour mettre en valeur la biodegradabillite et la toxicité des composes chimiques.

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Deficit, human capital and economic growth dynamics

Long-run economic growth arouses a great interest since it can shed light on the income-path of an economy and try to explain the large differences in income we observe across countries and over time. The neoclassical model has been followed by several endogenous growth models which, contrarily to the former, seem to predict that economies with similar preferences and technological level, do not necessarily tend to converge to similar per capita income levels. This paper attempts to show a possible mechanismthrough which macroeconomic disequilibria and inefficiencies, represented by budget deficits, may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Using a mixed education system, deficit is characterized as a bug agent which may end up sharply reducing the resources devoted to education and training. The paper goes a step further from the literature on deficit by introducing a rich dynamic analysis of the effects of a deficit reduction on different economic aspects.Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, we reach a point where deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. Empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions in the model: (1) evidence on an inverse relationship betweendeficit and human capital accumulation, (2) presence of a strongly negative associationbetween the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. They may prove a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Alleged Tax Competition: The Mysterious Death of Inheritance Taxes in Switzerland

Interjurisdictional competition over mobile tax bases is an easily understood mechanism, but actual tax-base elasticities are difficult to estimate. Political pressure for reducing tax rates could therefore be based on erroneous estimates of the mobility of tax bases. We show that tax competition provided the overwhelmingly dominant argument in the policy debates leading to a succession of reforms of bequest taxation by Swiss cantons. Yet, we find only very weak statistical evidence of a relationship between tax burdens on bequests and the concerned tax base of wealthy elderly individuals. Moreover, inheritance tax revenues are found to increase in inheritance tax rates even in the long run, and actual tax rates lie well below the revenue-maximising levels throughout. The alleged pressures of tax competition did not seem in reality to exist.

On the dynamics of exports and FDI: The Spanish Internationalization Process

This paper provides further insights into the dynamics of exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in Spain from a time-series approach. The contribution of the paper is twofold: 1) the existence of either substitution or a complementary relationship between Spanish outward investments and exports is empirically tested using a multivariate cointegrated model (VECM). The evolution in exchange flows (1993-2008) and country-specific variables (such as world demand - including Spain’s main recently growing foreign markets - for trade flows and the relative price of exports in order to proxy new global competitors) are taken into account for the first time. And 2) the growth in the trade of services in recent decades leads us to test a specific causality relationship by disaggregating between goods and services flows. Our results provide evidence of a positive (Granger) causality relationship running from FDI to exports of goods (stronger) and to exports of services (weaker) in the long run, the complementarity relation of which is consistent with vertical FDI strategies. In the short run, however, only exports of goods are affected (positively) by FDIs.

Estudio multidisciplinario del ecosistema manglar en la comunidad tradicional de Curral Velho : Estudio sobre la pesca artesanal y análisis de sus diferencias con la acuicultura del camarón

Curral Velho es una comunitat tradicional, situada al nord-est de Brasil, que manté una relació directa amb els ecosistemes que la envolten. La comunitat depèn del estat de conservació del medi natura, ja que obtenen diferents serveis ecositemics. En aquest territori es desenvolupen dos tipus d’economies amb unes bases molt diferents. Una economia tradicional, desenvolupada per la pròpia comunitat, que es basa en la propietat col·lectiva del territori i en optimitzar a llarg termini els beneficis que s’obtenen del medi; y un altre com la camaronicultura, la base de la qual es la obtenció de beneficis a curt termini i amb un territori de propietat privada. Aquesta superposició de models de producció genera impactes ambientals, i un conflicte socio-ambiental entre la comunitat i els que desenvolupen la camaronicultura. L’objectiu es realitzar un estudi econòmic de la pesca artesanal de Curral Velho caracteritzant manera de viure, creant una base de dades sobre pesca artesanal i elaborant indicador de beneficis econòmics generats per la pesca artesanal. Per contextualitzar els resultats es va fer un anàlisis de les dos economies existents a la comunitat. Els resultats obtinguts en primer lloc són que l’economia d’explotació intensiva aporta més guanys per les persones de la comunitat que tenen un relació directa que les que es dediquen a la pesca artesanal, però es important no aturar-se aquí: s’ha de realitzar un anàlisis més profund. Com a conclusió, la activitat pesquera es més rentable a llarg termini ja que els recursos extrets de manera sostenible i així són il·limitats y accessibles a tota la comunitat. A diferència de la camaronicultura, la pesca artesanal no genera desigualtats socials ni vulneracions dels drets humans. Tot el contrari, genera forts vincles entre els individus de la comunitat basats en el treball en equip i l’aprenentatge vivencial e intergeneracional.