Modelo de alta capacidade de inovação para PMEs

Sob as condições presentes de competitividade global, rápido avanço tecnológico e escassez de recursos, a inovação tornou-se uma das abordagens estratégicas mais importantes que uma organização pode explorar. Nesse contexto, a capacidade de inovação da empresa enquanto capacidade de engajar-se na introdução de novos processos, produtos ou ideias na empresa, é reconhecida como uma das principais fontes de crescimento sustentável, efetividade e até mesmo sobrevivência para as organizações. No entanto, apenas algumas empresas compreenderam na prática o que é necessário para inovar com sucesso e a maioria enxerga a inovação como um grande desafio. A realidade não é diferente no caso das empresas brasileiras e em particular das Pequenas e Médias Empresas (PMEs). Estudos indicam que o grupo das PMEs particularmente demonstra em geral um déficit ainda maior na capacidade de inovação. Em resposta ao desafio de inovar, uma ampla literatura emergiu sobre vários aspectos da inovação. Porém, ainda considere-se que há poucos resultados conclusivos ou modelos compreensíveis na pesquisa sobre inovação haja vista a complexidade do tema que trata de um fenômeno multifacetado impulsionado por inúmeros fatores. Além disso, identifica-se um hiato entre o que é conhecido pela literatura geral sobre inovação e a literatura sobre inovação nas PMEs. Tendo em vista a relevância da capacidade de inovação e o lento avanço do seu entendimento no contexto das empresas de pequeno e médio porte cujas dificuldades para inovar ainda podem ser observadas, o presente estudo se propôs identificar os determinantes da capacidade de inovação das PMEs a fim de construir um modelo de alta capacidade de inovação para esse grupo de empresas. O objetivo estabelecido foi abordado por meio de método quantitativo o qual envolveu a aplicação da análise de regressão logística binária para analisar, sob a perspectiva das PMEs, os 15 determinantes da capacidade de inovação identificados na revisão da literatura. Para adotar a técnica de análise de regressão logística, foi realizada a transformação da variável dependente categórica em binária, sendo grupo 0 denominado capacidade de inovação sem destaque e grupo 1 definido como capacidade de inovação alta. Em seguida procedeu-se com a divisão da amostra total em duas subamostras sendo uma para análise contendo 60% das empresas e a outra para validação (holdout) com os 40% dos casos restantes. A adequação geral do modelo foi avaliada por meio das medidas pseudo R2 (McFadden), chi-quadrado (Hosmer e Lemeshow) e da taxa de sucesso (matriz de classificação). Feita essa avaliação e confirmada a adequação do fit geral do modelo, foram analisados os coeficientes das variáveis incluídas no modelo final quanto ao nível de significância, direção e magnitude. Por fim, prosseguiu-se com a validação do modelo logístico final por meio da análise da taxa de sucesso da amostra de validação. Por meio da técnica de análise de regressão logística, verificou-se que 4 variáveis apresentaram correlação positiva e significativa com a capacidade de inovação das PMEs e que, portanto diferenciam as empresas com capacidade de inovação alta das empresas com capacidade de inovação sem destaque. Com base nessa descoberta, foi criado o modelo final de alta capacidade de inovação para as PMEs composto pelos 4 determinantes: base de conhecimento externo (externo), capacidade de gestão de projetos (interno), base de conhecimento interno (interno) e estratégia (interno).

Development of a novel pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry method for the analysis of poly(lactic acid) thermal degradation products

Thermal degradation of PLA is a complex process since it comprises many simultaneous reactions. The use of analytical techniques, such as differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TGA), yields useful information but a more sensitive analytical technique would be necessary to identify and quantify the PLA degradation products. In this work the thermal degradation of PLA at high temperatures was studied by using a pyrolyzer coupled to a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometry detection (Py-GC/MS). Pyrolysis conditions (temperature and time) were optimized in order to obtain an adequate chromatographic separation of the compounds formed during heating. The best resolution of chromatographic peaks was obtained by pyrolyzing the material from room temperature to 600 °C during 0.5 s. These conditions allowed identifying and quantifying the major compounds produced during the PLA thermal degradation in inert atmosphere. The strategy followed to select these operation parameters was by using sequential pyrolysis based on the adaptation of mathematical models. By application of this strategy it was demonstrated that PLA is degraded at high temperatures by following a non-linear behaviour. The application of logistic and Boltzmann models leads to good fittings to the experimental results, despite the Boltzmann model provided the best approach to calculate the time at which 50% of PLA was degraded. In conclusion, the Boltzmann method can be applied as a tool for simulating the PLA thermal degradation.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

As relações da tríplice hélice nas fundações de apoio brasileiras: uma avaliação da dinâmica de captação de recursos para projetos de inovação

Foundations support constitute one of the types of legal entities of private law forged with the purpose of supporting research projects, education and extension and institutional, scientific and technological development of Brazil. Observed as links of the relationship between company, university, and government, foundations supporting emerge in the Brazilian scene from the principle to establish an economic platform of development based on three pillars: science, technology and innovation – ST&I. In applied terms, these ones operate as tools of debureaucratisation making the management between public entities more agile, especially in the academic management in accordance with the approach of Triple Helix. From the exposed, the present study has as purpose understanding how the relation of Triple Helix intervenes in the fund-raising process of Brazilian foundations support. To understand the relations submitted, it was used the interaction models University-Company-Government recommended by Sábato and Botana (1968), the approach of the Triple Helix proposed by Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff (2000), as well as the perspective of the national innovation systems discussed by Freeman (1987, 1995), Nelson (1990, 1993) and Lundvall (1992). The research object of this study consists of 26 state foundations that support research associated with the National Council of the State Foundations of Supporting Research - CONFAP, as well as the 102 foundations in support of IES associated with the National Council of Foundations of Support for Institutions of Higher Education and Scientific and Technological Research – CONFIES, totaling 128 entities. As a research strategy, this study is considered as an applied research with a quantitative approach. Primary research data were collected using the e-mail Survey procedure. Seventy-five observations were collected, which corresponds to 58.59% of the research universe. It is considering the use of the bootstrap method in order to validate the use of the sample in the analysis of results. For data analysis, it was used descriptive statistics and multivariate data analysis techniques: the cluster analysis; the canonical correlation and the binary logistic regression. From the obtained canonical roots, the results indicated that the dependency relationship between the variables of relations (with the actors of the Triple Helix) and the financial resources invested in innovation projects is low, assuming the null hypothesis of this study, that the relations of the Triple Helix do not have interfered positively or negatively in raising funds for investments in innovation projects. On the other hand, the results obtained with the cluster analysis indicate that entities which have greater quantitative and financial amounts of projects are mostly large foundations (over 100 employees), which support up to five IES, publish management reports and use in their capital structure, greater financing of the public department. Finally, it is pertinent to note that the power of the classification of the logistic model obtained in this study showed high predictive capacity (80.0%) providing to the academic community replication in environments of similar analysis.

Modeling Hospital Readmissions in Dalarna County, Sweden

Unplanned hospital readmissions increase health and medical care costs and indicate lower the lower quality of the healthcare services. Hence, predicting patients at risk to be readmitted is of interest. Using administrative data of patients being treated in the medical centers and hospitals in the Dalarna County, Sweden, during 2008 – 2016 two risk prediction models of hospital readmission are built. The first model relies on the logistic regression (LR) approach, predicts correctly 2,648 out of 3,392 observed readmission in the test dataset, reaching a c-statistics of 0.69. The second model is built using random forests (RF) algorithm; correctly predicts 2,183 readmission (out of 3,366) and 13,198 non-readmission events (out of 18,982). The discriminating ability of the best performing RF model (c-statistic 0.60) is comparable to that of the logistic model. Although the discriminating ability of both LR and RF risk prediction models is relatively modest, still these models are capable to identify patients running high risk of hospital readmission. These patients can then be targeted with specific interventions, in order to prevent the readmission, improve patients’ quality of life and reduce health and medical care costs.

Valoração do efluente da indústria processadora de pescado por incorporação de nutrientes em aphanothece microscopica nägeli

Nesta tese procurou-se demonstrar a valoração do efluente do processamento de pescado por incorporação dos nutrientes em Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli a diferentes temperaturas. Para tanto o trabalho é composto de cinco artigos que objetivaram avaliar sob o ponto de vista do tratamento do efluente pela cianobactéria Aphanothece e a separação e avaliação da biomassa gerada. O primeiro artigo intitula-se “Influência da temperatura na remoção de nutrientes do efluente da indústria de pescado por Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli”, e teve por objetivo avaliar a influência da temperatura (10, 20 e 30ºC) em um sistema de tratamento pela cianobactéria Aphanothece na remoção de matéria orgânica, nitrogênio e fósforo do efluente oriundo do processamento de pescado. A análise dos resultados mostrou que a temperatura influenciou significativamente na remoção de DQO, NTK, N-NH4 + e P-PO4 -3 . Para os experimentos a 20 e 30ºC todos os limites estabelecidos para os parâmetros avaliados foram atingidos. O segundo artigo intitulado “Efeito de coagulantes no efluente da indústria da pesca visando à separação de biomassa quando tratado por cianobactéria” avaliou o efeito da concentração e pH de dois tipos de coagulantes, cloreto férrico (FeCl3) e sulfato de alumínio (Al2(SO4)3), na separação da biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli cultivada em efluente da indústria da pesca, assim como a remoção de matéria orgânica e nutrientes do efluente. Os resultados indicaram que o coagulante FeCl3 foi mais eficaz na remoção de todos os parâmetros testados. No que concerne à separação da biomassa, com um número de seis lavagens foi removido cerca de 97,6% da concentração de FeCl3 adicionado inicialmente. O terceiro artigo com o título “Caracterização da biomassa de Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli gerada no efluente da indústria da pesca em diferentes temperaturas de cultivo” avaliou a composição química da biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli quando desenvolvida em meio de cultivo padrão BG11 e no efluente do processamento de pescado. O quarto artigo teve como título “Influência do meio de cultivo e temperatura em compostos nitrogenados na cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli” objetivou avaliar o teor de compostos nitrogenados presentes na biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli quando cultivada em meio padrão e no efluente da indústria da pesca nas diferentes fases de crescimento. Para o estudo da composição química e nitrogenados no efluente foram realizados experimentos nas temperaturas de 10, 20 e 30ºC. As concentrações de proteína, cinzas e pigmentos aumentaram com o aumento da temperatura. Por outro lado, foi observada uma redução do teor de lipídios e carboidratos com o aumento da temperatura. O íon amônio juntamente com os ácidos nucléicos representa uma importante fração do nitrogênio não protéico presente na biomassa da cianobactéria Aphanothece. Ficou demonstrada a influência do meio de cultivo na concentração de nitrogênio, bem como a determinação de proteína pelo método de Kjeldahl superestima a concentração protéica em cianobactérias. O quinto artigo intitulado “Produção de proteína unicelular a partir do efluente do processamento do pescado: modelagem preditiva e simulação” avaliou a produção de proteína unicelular através do cultivo da cianobactéria Aphanothece microscopica Nägeli no efluente da indústria da pesca. Os dados cinéticos de crescimento celular foram ajustados a quatro modelos matemáticos (Logístico, Gompertz, Gompertz Modificado e Baranyi). Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo Logístico foi considerado o mais adequado para descrever a formação de biomassa. A análise preditiva mostrou a possibilidade da obtenção de 1,66, 18,96 e 57,36 kg.m-3.d-1 de biomassa por volume do reator em 1000 h de processo contínuo, para as temperaturas de 10, 20 e 30ºC, respectivamente.

L’automédication en République Démocratique du Congo : choix ou contrainte ?

Fondé sur l’analyse des données produites par l’enquête « 1-2-3 » de 2012 en République Démocratique du Congo, cet article propose une approche quantitative de l’automédication. Il fait apparaître, le caractère relativement circonscrit de cette pratique dans les déclarations des individus confrontés à un épisode de maladie et tente de rendre compte des choix qui les guident : consulter un professionnel de santé, affirmer recourir à l’automédication, s’abstenir de se soigner ou recourir à l’automédication par défaut. La construction d’un modèle logistique multinomial non-ordonné permet à cet égard de comparer les déterminants de ces décisions, considérées sous la forme d’une double alternative : consulter ou recourir à l’automédication, et, pour ceux qui ne sollicitent pas un professionnel de santé, s’automédiquer ou s’abstenir de toute démarche thérapeutique. L’article pointe ainsi les contraintes (économiques, géographiques, sociales et culturelles) qui pèsent sur ces choix tout en soulignant comment les individus cherchent à s’en affranchir.

El ser y el tener de los habitantes de la ciudad de Medellín como determinantes de la satisfacción con la vida

El presente estudio tiene como objetivo encontrar y analizar los efectos causales de diversos factores socioeconómicos y demográficos en la satisfacción con la vida de los hogares de Medellín. Para ello, se estima un modelo logístico, categorizando en dos grupos las variables explicativas: los aspectos inherentes al ser y las características relacionadas al tener. Los principales resultados sugieren que estar soltero en relación con otro estado civil tiene un efecto negativo en el bienestar subjetivo, así como el hecho de ser afrodescendiente con respecto a otro grupo étnico. Por el lado del tener, cabe resaltar que mayores niveles de educación y estratos socioeconómicos más altos incrementan el bienestar subjetivo. Se concluye que tanto las características del ser como las del tener son fundamentales para explicar la satisfacción con la vida, y por tanto, para la toma de decisiones de política pública.

Factores asociados al perfil de lípidos sanguíneos en los pacientes del área de salud de Montes de Oca, Costa Rica

En este estudio se analiza la asociación entre la exposición a diversos factores —de biotipo, socioeconómicos y patológicos— y la alteración del perfil de lípidos sanguíneos (dislipidemia) en pacientes adscritos al Área de Salud de Montes de Oca. Se realizó un estudio de caso-control, con un total de 135 casos e igual cantidad de controles, entre 20 y 65 años, a los que se les hizo un perfil de lípidos sanguíneos durante el año 2006. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, sexo, índice de masa corporal, tipo de aseguramiento, estado de portador de hipertensión arterial, de diabetes mellitus o de ambas patologías crónicas a la vez. Se realizó un análisis univariado, seguido de un análisis multivariado, mediante un modelo logístico múltiple. La única variable asociada con la dislipidemia fue el índice de masa corporal, tanto en el análisis univariado como en el multivariado; las variables restantes no mostraron asociación estadística. Aquellos pacientes con mayor índice de masa corporal presentan un mayor riesgo de tener un perfil alterado de lípidos sanguíneos.

Comparative fixed gear studies in the Cyclades (Aegean Sea): size selectivity of small-hook longlines and monofilament gill nets

Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out at the same fishing grounds in Cyclades (Aegean Sea) over 1 year. Four sizes of MUSTAD brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 22, 24, 26 and 28 turn nominal bar length monofilament gill nets were used. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for four out of five of the most important species caught by both the gears (Diplodus annularis, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus erythrinus, Scorpaena porcus and Serranus cabrilla), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than gill nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection, with larger mesh sizes catching larger fish. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net data, with the lognormal providing the best fit in most cases. A maximum likelihood method was also used to estimate the parameters of the logistic model for the longline data. Because of the highly overlapped longline catch size frequency distributions parameters could only be estimated for two species. This study shows that the two static gears have different impacts in terms of size selection. This information will be useful for the more effective management of these small-scale, multi-species and multi-gear fisheries. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the roles of competing static gears: comparative selectivity of longlines and monofilament gill nets in a multi-species fishery of the Algarve (southern Portugal)

Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out in Algarve waters (southern Portugal) over a one-year period. Four hook sizes of "Mustad" brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 25, 30, 35 and 40 mm (bar length) monofilament gill nets were used. Commercially valuable sea breams dominated the longline catches while small pelagics were relatively more important in the gill nets. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for all the most important species caught by both gears (Boops boops, Diplodus bellottii, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, Spondyiosoma cantharus, Scomber japonicus and Scorpaena notata), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net and hook data using the SELECT method, while the parameters of the logistic model were estimated by maximum likelihood for the longline data. The bi-normal model gave the best fits for most of the species caught with gill nets, while the logistic model adequately described hook selectivity. The results of this study show that the two static gears compete for many of the same species and have different impacts in terms of catch composition and size selectivity. This information will I;e useful for the improved management of these small-scale fisheries in which many different gears compete for scarce resources.

Size selectivity of trammel nets in southern European small-scale fisheries

Trammel net size selectivity was studied for the most important metiers in four southern European areas: the Cantabrian Sea (Atlantic, Basque Country, Spain), the Algarve (Atlantic, southern Portugal), the Gulf of Cadiz (Atlantic, Spain) and the Cyclades Islands (Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Greece). These metiers were: cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) and soles (Solea senegalensis, Microchirus azevia, Synaptura lusitanica) in the Algarve and the Gulf of Cadiz, sole (Solea solea) in the Cantabrian Sea and mixed fin-fish in the Cyclades. In each area, experimental trammel nets of six different types (combinations of two large outer panel mesh sizes and three small inner panel meshes) were constructed. Fishing trials were carried out on a seasonal basis (four seasons in the Cantabrian Sea, Algarve and Cyclades and two seasons in the Gulf of Cadiz) with chartered commercial fishing vessels. Overall, size selectivity was estimated for 17 out of 28 species for which sufficient data were available. Trammel nets generally caught a wide size range of the most important species, with length frequency distributions that were skewed to the right and/or bi-modal. In many cases the length frequency distributions of the different nets were highly overlapped. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test also showed that the large outer panel meshes generally had no effect in terms of size selectivity, while the opposite was true for the small inner panel ones. Six different selectivity models (normal scale, normal location, gamma, log-normal, bi-modal and gamma semi-Wileman) were fitted to data for the most abundant species in the four areas. For fish, the bi-modal model provided the best fits for the majority of the data sets, with the uni-modal models giving poor fits in most cases. For Sepia officinalis, where trammelling or pocketing was the method of capture in 100% of the cases, the logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood was judged to be more appropriate for describing the size selective properties of the trammel nets. Our results, which are among the first ones on trammel net selectivity in European waters, will be useful for evaluating the impacts of competing gear for the socio-economically important small-scale static gear fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Species and size selectivity in a 'red' sea bream longline 'metier' in the Algarve (southern Portugal)

A longline 'metier' using small hooks for 'red' sea breams (Pagellus acarne and Pagellus erythrinus) in the Algarve (south of Portugal) was studied. Experimental longlining was carried out with three sizes of "Mustad" round bend, flatted, spade end Quality 2316 DT hooks (numbers 11, 13 and 15) and two types of bait: razor shell (Ensis siliqua) and mud shrimp (Upogebia pusilla). A total of 3 328 fish and at least 36 species were caught with 33 600 hooks fished in 28 longline sets. Five species of sea breams (Sparidae) accounted for 79% of the catch: Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, Diplodus vulgaris, Spondyliosoma cantharus, and Boops boops. High catch rates of 20-30 fish per 100 hooks were made in a number of 1 200 hook longline sets, with total catch weights of 40 to more than 60 kg per set. In general, the smallest hook (number 15) had the highest catch rate. Bait type did not significantly affect the catch size distributions. Although more fish were caught with the razor shell bait, higher catch rates of 'red' sea breams were obtained with mud shrimp. Catch rates were also affected by the location of the fishing grounds and the time of the set, with the highest catch rates obtained when the longline was set within two hours before sunrise. A wide size range was caught for each species, with highly overlapped catch size frequency distributions for the three hook sizes used. Except for Spondyliosoma cantharus, few illegal-sized fish were caught, even with the smallest hook. The logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood was used to describe hook selectivity for Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, and Spondyliosoma cantharus. (C) Ifremer-Elsevier, Paris.

Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula

We used the results of the Spanish Otter Survey of 1994–1996, a Geographic Information System and stepwise multiple logistic regression to model otter presence/absence data in the continental Spanish UTM 10 10-km squares. Geographic situation, indicators of human activity such as highways and major urban centers, and environmental variables related with productivity, water availability, altitude, and environmental energy were included in a logistic model that correctly classified about 73% of otter presences and absences. We extrapolated the model to the adjacent territory of Portugal, and increased the model’s spatial resolution by extrapolating it to 1 1-km squares in the whole Iberian Peninsula. The model turned out to be rather flexible, predicting, for instance, the species to be very restricted to the courses of rivers in some areas, and more widespread in others. This allowed us to determine areas where otter populations may be more vulnerable to habitat changes or harmful human interventions. # 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined effects of soil biotic and abiotic factors, influenced by sewage sludge incorporation, on the incidence of corn stalk rot.

Abstract: The objectives of this study were to evaluate the combined effects of soil bioticand abiotic factors on the incidence of Fusarium corn stalk rot, during four annual incorporations of two typesofsewagesludge intosoil ina 5-years field assay under tropical conditions and topredict the effectsof these variables on the disease. For each type of sewage sludge, the following treatments were included: control with mineral fertilization recommended for corn; control without fertilization; sewage sludge based on the nitrogen concentration that provided the same amount of nitrogen as in the mineral fertilizer treatment; and sewage sludge that provided two, four and eight times the nitrogen concentration recommended for corn. Increasing dosages of both types of sewage sludge incorporated into soil resulted in increased corn stalk rot incidence, being negatively correlated with corn yield. A global analysis highlighted the effect of the year of the experiment, followed by the sewage sludge dosages. The type of sewage sludge did not affect the disease incidence. Amultiple logistic model using a stepwise procedure was fitted based on the selection of a model that included the three explanatory parameters for disease incidence: electrical conductivity, magnesium and Fusarium population. In the selected model, the probability of higher disease incidence increased with an increase of these three explanatory parameters. When the explanatory parameters were compared, electrical conductivity presented a dominant effect and was the main variable to predict the probability distribution curves of Fusarium corn stalk rot, after sewage sludge application into the soil.