Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Empirical derivation and validation of a wandering typology

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a wandering typology. ---------- DESIGN: Cross-sectional, correlational descriptive design. ---------- SETTING:: Twenty-two nursing homes and six assisted living facilities. ---------- PARTICIPANTS: One hundred forty-two residents with dementia who spoke English, met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for dementia, scored less than 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), were ambulatory (with or without assistive device), and maintained a stable regime of psychotropic medications were studied. ---------- MEASUREMENTS: Data on wandering were collected using direct observations, plotted serially according to rate and duration to yield 21 parameters, and reduced through factor analysis to four components: high rate, high duration, low to moderate rate and duration, and time of day. Other measures included the MMSE, Minimum Data Set 2.0 mobility items, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale—Geriatric, and tympanic body temperature readings. ---------- RESULTS: Three groups of wanderers were identified through cluster analysis: classic, moderate, and subclinical. MMSE, mobility, and cardiac and upper and lower gastrointestinal problems differed between groups of wanderers and in comparison with nonwanderers. ---------- CONCLUSION: Results have implications for improving identification of wanderers and treatment of possible contributing factors.

Customer-oriented deviance (COD) : a conceptualisation, development and validation of a behavioural measure

Frontline employee behaviours are recognised as vital for achieving a competitive advantage for service organisations. The services marketing literature has comprehensively examined ways to improve frontline employee behaviours in service delivery and recovery. However, limited attention has been paid to frontline employee behaviours that favour customers in ways that go against organisational norms or rules. This study examines these behaviours by introducing a behavioural concept of Customer-Oriented Deviance (COD). COD is defined as, “frontline employees exhibiting extra-role behaviours that they perceive to defy existing expectations or prescribed rules of higher authority through service adaptation, communication and use of resources to benefit customers during interpersonal service encounters.” This thesis develops a COD measure and examines the key determinants of these behaviours from a frontline employee perspective. Existing research on similar behaviours that has originated in the positive deviance and pro-social behaviour domains has limitations and is considered inadequate to examine COD in the services context. The absence of a well-developed body of knowledge on non-conforming service behaviours has implications for both theory and practice. The provision of ‘special favours’ increases customer satisfaction but the over-servicing of customers is also counterproductive for the service delivery and costly for the organisation. Despite these implications of non-conforming service behaviours, there is little understanding about the nature of these behaviours and its key drivers. This research builds on inadequacies in prior research on positive deviance, pro-social and pro-customer literature to develop the theoretical foundation of COD. The concept of positive deviance which has predominantly been used to study organisational behaviours is applied within a services marketing setting. Further, it addresses previous limitations in pro-social and pro-customer behavioural literature that has examined limited forms of behaviours with no clear understanding on the nature of these behaviours. Building upon these literature streams, this research adopts a holistic approach towards the conceptualisation of COD. It addresses previous shortcomings in the literature by providing a well bounded definition, developing a psychometrically sound measure of COD and a conceptually well-founded model of COD. The concept of COD was examined across three separate studies and based on the theoretical foundations of role theory and social identity theory. Study 1 was exploratory and based on in-depth interviews using the Critical Incident Technique (CIT). The aim of Study 1 was to understand the nature of COD and qualitatively identify its key drivers. Thematic analysis was conducted to analyse the data and the two potential dimensions of COD behaviours of Deviant Service Adaptation (DSA) and Deviant Service Communication (DSC) were revealed in the analysis. In addition, themes representing the potential influences of COD were broadly classified as individual factors, situational factors, and organisational factors. Study 2 was a scale development procedure that involved the generation and purification of items for the measure based on two student samples working in customer service roles (Pilot sample, N=278; Initial validation sample, N=231). The results for the reliability and Exploratory Factor Analyses (EFA) on the pilot sample suggested the scale had poor psychometric properties. As a result, major revisions were made in terms of item wordings and new items were developed based on the literature to reflect a new dimension, Deviant Use of Resources (DUR). The revised items were tested on the initial validation sample with the EFA analysis suggesting a four-factor structure of COD. The aim of Study 3 was to further purify the COD measure and test for nomological validity based on its theoretical relationships with key antecedents and similar constructs (key correlates). The theoretical model of COD consisting of nine hypotheses was tested on a retail and hospitality sample of frontline employees (Retail N=311; Hospitality N=305) of a market research panel using an online survey. The data was analysed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results provided support for a re-specified second-order three-factor model of COD which consists of 11 items. Overall, the COD measure was found to be reliable and valid, demonstrating convergent validity, discriminant validity and marginal partial invariance for the factor loadings. The results showed support for nomological validity, although the antecedents had differing impact on COD across samples. Specifically, empathy and perspective-taking, role conflict, and job autonomy significantly influenced COD in the retail sample, whereas empathy and perspective-taking, risk-taking propensity and role conflict were significant predictors in the hospitality sample. In addition, customer orientation-selling orientation, the altruistic dimension of organisational citizenship behaviours, workplace deviance, and social desirability responding were found to correlate with COD. This research makes several contributions to theory. First, the findings of this thesis extend the literature on positive deviance, pro-social and pro-customer behaviours. Second, the research provides an empirically tested model which describes the antecedents of COD. Third, this research contributes by providing a reliable and valid measure of COD. Finally, the research investigates the differential effects of the key antecedents in different service sectors on COD. The research findings also contribute to services marketing practice. Based on the research findings, service practitioners can better understand the phenomenon of COD and utilise the measurement tool to calibrate COD levels within their organisations. Knowledge on the key determinants of COD will help improve recruitment and training programs and drive internal initiatives within the firm.

Public asset management framework for local governments : opportunities and challenges for public asset managers

The aim of the study is to identify the opportunities and challenges a local government public asset manager is most likely to deal with when adopting the appropriate Public Asset Management Framework especially in developing countries. In order to achieve its aim, this study employs a Case Study in Indonesia for collecting all data i.e. interviews, document analysis and observations at South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. The study concludes that there are significant opportunities and challenges that local governments in developing countries, especially Indonesia, might be required to manage if apply public asset management framework appropriately. The opportunities are more effective and efficient local government, accountable and auditable local government organization, increase local government portfolio, reflect up to date information for decision makers in local government, and improve the quality of public services. On the other hand, there are also challenges. Those challenges are local governments has no clear legal and institutional framework to support the asset management application, non-profit principle of public assets, cross jurisdictions and applications in public asset management, the complexity of public organization objectives, and data availability required for managing public property. The study only covers the condition of developing countries where Indonesia as an example, which could not represent exactly the whole local governments’ condition in the world. Further study to develop an asset management system applicable for all local governments in developing countries is urgently needed. Findings from this study will provide useful input for the policy maker, scholars and asset management practitioners to develop an asset management framework for more efficient and effective local governments.

The significant of public asset management framework application for Indonesian local governments : Opportunities and challenges

The purpose of this paper is to emphasis the significance of public asset management in Indonesia that is by identifying opportunities and challenges of Indonesian local governments in adopting current practice of Public Asset Management System. A Case Study, in South Sulawesi Provincial government was used as the approach to achieve the research objective. The case study involved two data collection techniques i.e. interviews followed by study on documents. The result of the study indicates there are some significant opportunities and challenges that Indonesian local government might deal with in adopting current practice of public asset management. There are opportunities that can lead to more effective and efficient local government, accountable and auditable local government organization, increase local government portfolio, and improve the quality of public services. The challenges include no clear institutional and legal framework to support the asset management application, non-profit principle of public assets, cross jurisdictions in public asset management, complexity of local government objectives, and unavailability of data for managing public property. The study only covers condition of South Sulawesi Province, which could not represent exactly the whole local governments’ condition in Indonesia. Findings from this study provide useful input for the policy makers, scholars and asset management practitioners in Indonesia to establish a public asset management framework that suitable for Indonesia.

Measuring performance of municipal real estate : softening the impact of financial crisis to local governments

Asset management in local government is an emerging discipline and over a decade has become a crucial aspect towards a more efficient and effective organisation. One crucial feature in the public asset management is performance measurement toward the public real estates. This measurement critically at the important component of public wealth and seeks to apply a standard of economic efficiency and effective organisational management especially in such global financial crisis condition. This paper aims to identify global economic crisis effect and proposes alternative solution for local governments to softening the impact of the crisis to the local governments organisation. This study found that the most suitable solution for local government to solve the global economic crisis in Indonesia is application of performance measurement in its asset management. Thus, it is important to develop performance measurement system in local government asset management process. This study provides suggestions from published documents and literatures. The paper also discusses the elements of public real estate performance measurement. The measurement of performance has become an essential component of the strategic thinking of assets owners and managers. Without having a formal measurement system for performance, it is difficult to plan, control and improve local government real estate management system. A close look at best practices in public sectors reveals that in most cases these practices were transferred from private sector reals estate management under the direction of real estate experts retained by government. One of the most significant advances in government property performance measurement resulted from recognition that the methodology used by private sector, non real estate corporations for managing their real property offered a valuable prototype for local governments. In general, there are two approaches most frequently used to measure performance of public organisations. Those are subjective and objective measures. Finally, findings from this study provides useful input for the local government policy makers, scholars and asset management practitioners to establish a public real estate performance measurement system toward more efficient and effective local governments in managing their assets as well as increasing public services quality in order to soften the impact of global financial crisis.

Validation of an Australian sign language instrument of outcome measurement for adults in mental health settings

Objective: There are currently no adult mental health outcome measures that have been translated into Australian sign language (Auslan). Without a valid and reliable Auslan outcome measure, empirical research into the efficacy of mental health interventions for sign language users is unattainable. To address this research problem the Outcome Rating Scale (ORS), a measure of general functioning, was translated into Auslan and recorded on to digital video disk for use in clinical settings. The purpose of the present study was therefore to examine the reliability, validity and acceptability of an Auslan version of the ORS (ORS-Auslan). Method: The ORS-Auslan was administered to 44 deaf people who use Auslan as their first language and who identify as members of a deaf community (termed ‘Deaf’ people) on their first presentation to a mental health or counselling facility and to 55 Deaf people in the general community. The community sample also completed an Auslan version of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21). Results: t-Tests indicated significant differences between the mean scores for the clinical and community sample. Internal consistency was acceptable given the low number of items in the ORS-Auslan. Construct validity was established by significant correlations between total scores on the DASS-21-Auslan and ORS-Auslan. Acceptability of ORS-Auslan was evident in the completion rate of 93% compared with 63% for DASS-21-Auslan. Conclusions: This is the only Auslan outcome measure available that can be used across a wide variety of mental health and clinical settings. The ORS-Auslan provides mental health clinicians with a reliable and valid, brief measure of general functioning that can significantly distinguish between clinical and non-clinical presentations for members of the Deaf community.

Structural behaviour and design of cold-formed steel beams at elevated temperatures

Cold-formed steel members are extensively used in the building construction industry, especially in residential, commercial and industrial buildings. In recent times, fire safety has become important in structural design due to increased fire damage to properties and loss of lives. However, past research into the fire performance of cold-formed steel members has been limited, and was confined to compression members. Therefore a research project was undertaken to investigate the structural behaviour of compact cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subject to inelastic local buckling and yielding, and lateral-torsional buckling effects under simulated fire conditions and associated section and member moment capacities. In the first phase of this research, an experimental study based on tensile coupon tests was undertaken to obtain the mechanical properties of elastic modulus and yield strength and the stress-strain relationship of cold-formed steels at uniform ambient and elevated temperatures up to 700oC. The mechanical properties deteriorated with increasing temperature and are likely to reduce the strength of cold-formed beams under fire conditions. Predictive equations were developed for yield strength and elastic modulus reduction factors while a modification was proposed for the stressstrain model at elevated temperatures. These results were used in the numerical modelling phases investigating the section and member moment capacities. The second phase of this research involved the development and validation of two finite element models to simulate the behaviour of compact cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subject to local buckling and yielding, and lateral-torsional buckling effects. Both models were first validated for elastic buckling. Lateral-torsional buckling tests of compact lipped channel beams were conducted at ambient temperature in order to validate the finite element model in predicting the non-linear ultimate strength behaviour. The results from this experimental study did not agree well with those from the developed experimental finite element model due to some unavoidable problems with testing. However, it highlighted the importance of magnitude and direction of initial geometric imperfection as well as the failure direction, and thus led to further enhancement of the finite element model. The finite element model for lateral-torsional buckling was then validated using the available experimental and numerical ultimate moment capacity results from past research. The third phase based on the validated finite element models included detailed parametric studies of section and member moment capacities of compact lipped channel beams at ambient temperature, and provided the basis for similar studies at elevated temperatures. The results showed the existence of inelastic reserve capacity for compact cold-formed steel beams at ambient temperature. However, full plastic capacity was not achieved by the mono-symmetric cold-formed steel beams. Suitable recommendations were made in relation to the accuracy and suitability of current design rules for section moment capacity. Comparison of member capacity results from finite element analyses with current design rules showed that they do not give accurate predictions of lateral-torsional buckling capacities at ambient temperature and hence new design rules were developed. The fourth phase of this research investigated the section and member moment capacities of compact lipped channel beams at uniform elevated temperatures based on detailed parametric studies using the validated finite element models. The results showed the existence of inelastic reserve capacity at elevated temperatures. Suitable recommendations were made in relation to the accuracy and suitability of current design rules for section moment capacity in fire design codes, ambient temperature design codes as well as those proposed by other researchers. The results showed that lateral-torsional buckling capacities are dependent on the ratio of yield strength and elasticity modulus reduction factors and the level of non-linearity in the stress-strain curves at elevated temperatures in addition to the temperature. Current design rules do not include the effects of non-linear stress-strain relationship and therefore their predictions were found to be inaccurate. Therefore a new design rule that uses a nonlinearity factor, which is defined as the ratio of the limit of proportionality to the yield stress at a given temperature, was developed for cold-formed steel beams subject to lateral-torsional buckling at elevated temperatures. This thesis presents the details and results of the experimental and numerical studies conducted in this research including a comparison of results with predictions using available design rules. It also presents the recommendations made regarding the accuracy of current design rules as well as the new developed design rules for coldformed steel beams both at ambient and elevated temperatures.

Validation of the Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire - Revised in an Adolescent Sample (DRSEQ-RA)

Adolescent drinking is a significant issue yet valid psychometric tools designed for this group are scarce. The Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire—Revised Adolescent Version (DRSEQ-RA) is designed to assess an individual's belief in their ability to resist drinking alcohol. The original DRSEQ-R consists of three factors reflecting social pressure refusal self-efficacy, opportunistic refusal self-efficacy and emotional relief refusal self-efficacy. A large sample of 2020 adolescents aged between 12 and 19 years completed the DRSEQ and measures of alcohol consumption in small groups. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the three factor structure was confirmed. All three factors were negatively correlated with both frequency and volume of alcohol consumption. Drinkers reported lower drinking refusal self-efficacy than non-drinkers. Taken together, these results suggest that the adolescent version of the Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (DRSEQ-RA) is a reliable and valid measure of drinking refusal self-efficacy.

An adaptive local meshfree updated Lagrangian approach for large deformation analysis of metal forming

The large deformation analysis is one of major challenges in numerical modelling and simulation of metal forming. Because no mesh is used, the meshfree methods show good potential for the large deformation analysis. In this paper, a local meshfree formulation, based on the local weak-forms and the updated Lagrangian (UL) approach, is developed for the large deformation analysis. To fully employ the advantages of meshfree methods, a simple and effective adaptive technique is proposed, and this procedure is much easier than the re-meshing in FEM. Numerical examples of large deformation analysis are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the newly developed nonlinear meshfree approach. It has been found that the developed meshfree technique provides a superior performance to the conventional FEM in dealing with large deformation problems for metal forming.

Validation of the WHOQOL-BREF among women following childbirth

Background: There is an increasing interest in measuring quality of life (QOL) in clinical settings and in clinical trials. None of the commonly used QOL instrument have been validated for use postnatally. Aim: To assess the psychometric properties of the 26-item WHOQOL-BREF among women following childbirth. Methods: Using a prospective cohort design we recruited 320 women within the first few days of childbirth. At six weeks postpartum, participants were asked to complete the WHOQOL-BREF, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Index and the Australian Unity Wellbeing Index. Validation of the WHOQOL-BREF included an analysis of internal consistency, discriminate validity, convergent validity and an examination of the domain structure. Results: 221 (69.1%) women returned their six-week questionnaire. All domains of the WHOQOL-BREF met reliability standards (alpha coefficient exceeding 0.70). The questionnaire discriminated well between known groups (depressed and non-depressed women. P = <0.000) and demonstrated satisfactory correlations with the Australian Unity Wellbeing index (r = >0.45). The domain structure of the WHOQOL-BREF was also valid in this population of new mothers, with moderate to high correlation between individual items and the domain structure to which the items were originally assigned. Conclusion: The WHOQOL-BRF is well-accepted and valid instrument in this population and may be used in postnatal clinical settings or for assessing intervention effects in research studies.

Crowd counting using group tracking and local features

In public venues, crowd size is a key indicator of crowd safety and stability. In this paper we propose a crowd counting algorithm that uses tracking and local features to count the number of people in each group as represented by a foreground blob segment, so that the total crowd estimate is the sum of the group sizes. Tracking is employed to improve the robustness of the estimate, by analysing the history of each group, including splitting and merging events. A simplified ground truth annotation strategy results in an approach with minimal setup requirements that is highly accurate.