Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/H s and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs > 12 m and Hmax > 16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs > 5.5 m or Hmax > 8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past 50 years - contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Can we trust simple marine DMS parameterisations within complex climate models?

Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.

Comparison of new and primary production models using SeaWiFS data in contrasting hydrographic zones of the northern North Atlantic.

The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.

Annual study of oxygenated volatile organic compounds in UK shelf waters

We performed an annual study of oxygenated volatile organic compound (OVOC) seawater concentrations at a site off Plymouth, UK in the Western English Channel over the period of February 2011–March 2012. Acetone concentrations ranged from 2–10 nM (nanomole/L) in surface waters with a maximum observed in summer. Concentrations correlated positively with net shortwave radiation and UV light, suggestive of photochemically linked acetone production. We observed a clear decline in acetone concentrations below the mixed layer. Acetaldehyde varied between 4–37 nM in surface waters with higher values observed in autumn and winter. Surface concentrations of methanol ranged from 16–78 nM, but no clear annual cycle was observed. Methanol concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. We estimate consistent deposition to the sea surface for acetone and methanol but that the direction of the acetaldehyde flux varies during the year.

Dynamics of air–sea CO2 fluxes in the northwestern European shelf based on voluntary observing ship and satellite observations

From January 2011 to December 2013, we constructed a comprehensive pCO2 data set based on voluntary observing ship (VOS) measurements in the western English Channel (WEC). We subsequently estimated surface pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes in northwestern European continental shelf waters using multiple linear regressions (MLRs) from remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a), wind speed (WND), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and modeled mixed layer depth (MLD). We developed specific MLRs for the seasonally stratified northern WEC (nWEC) and the permanently well-mixed southern WEC (sWEC) and calculated surface pCO2 with uncertainties of 17 and 16 μatm, respectively. We extrapolated the relationships obtained for the WEC based on the 2011–2013 data set (1) temporally over a decade and (2) spatially in the adjacent Celtic and Irish seas (CS and IS), two regions which exhibit hydrographical and biogeochemical characteristics similar to those of WEC waters. We validated these extrapolations with pCO2 data from the SOCAT and LDEO databases and obtained good agreement between modeled and observed data. On an annual scale, seasonally stratified systems acted as a sink of CO2 from the atmosphere of −0.6 ± 0.3, −0.9 ± 0.3 and −0.5 ± 0.3 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the northern Celtic Sea, southern Celtic sea and nWEC, respectively, whereas permanently well-mixed systems acted as source of CO2 to the atmosphere of 0.2 ± 0.2 and 0.3 ± 0.2 mol C m−2 yr−1 in the sWEC and IS, respectively. Air–sea CO2 fluxes showed important inter-annual variability resulting in significant differences in the intensity and/or direction of annual fluxes. We scaled the mean annual fluxes over these provinces for the last decade and obtained the first annual average uptake of −1.11 ± 0.32 Tg C yr−1 for this part of the northwestern European continental shelf. Our study showed that combining VOS data with satellite observations can be a powerful tool to estimate and extrapolate air–sea CO2 fluxes in sparsely sampled area.

How does Calanus helgolandicus maintain its population in a variable environment? Analysis of a 25-year time series from the English Channel

Calanus helgolandicus is a key copepod of the NE Atlantic and fringing shelves, with a distribution that is expanding northwards with oceanic warming. The Plymouth L4 site has warmed over the past 25-years, and experiences large variations in the timing and availability of food for C. helgolandicus. Here we examine the degree to which these changes translate into variation in reproductive output and subsequently C. helgolandicus population size. Egg production rates (eggs female−1 day−1) were maximal in the spring to early-summer period of diatom blooms and high ciliate abundance, rather than during the equally large autumn blooms of autotrophic dinoflagellates. Egg hatch success was lower in spring however, with a greater proportion of naupliar deformities then also. Both the timing and the mean summer abundance of C. helgolandicus (CI–CVI) reflected those of spring total reproductive output. However this relationship was driven by inter-annual variability in female abundance and not that of egg production per female, which ranged only two-fold. Winter abundance of C. helgolandicus at L4 was much more variable than abundance in other seasons, and reflected conditions from the previous growing season. However, these low winter abundances had no clear carry-over signal to the following season’s population size. Overall, the C. helgolandicus population appears to be surprisingly resilient at this dynamic, inshore site, showing no long-term phenology shift and only a four-fold variation in mean abundance between years. This dampening effect may reflect a series of mortality sources, associated with the timing of stratification in the early part of the season, likely affecting egg sinking and loss, plus intense, density-dependent mortality of early stages in mid-summer likely through predation.

Questioning the role of phenology shifts and trophic mismatching in a planktonic food web

In a warming climate, differential shifts in the seasonal timing of predators and prey have been suggested to lead to trophic ‘‘mismatches’’ that decouple primary, secondary and tertiary production. We tested this hypothesis using a 25-year time-series of weekly sampling at the Plymouth L4 site, comparing 57 plankton taxa spanning 4 trophic levels. During warm years, there was a weak tendency for earlier timings of spring taxa and later timings of autumn taxa. While this is in line with many previous findings, numerous exceptions existed and only a few taxa (e.g. Gyrodinium spp., Pseudocalanus elongatus, and Acartia clausi) showed consistent, strong evidence for temperature-related timing shifts, revealed by all 4 of the timing indices that we used. Also, the calculated offsets in timing i.e. ‘‘mismatches’’) between predator and prey were no greater in extreme warm or cold years than during more average years. Further, the magnitude of these offsets had no effect on the ‘‘success’’ of the predator, in terms of their annual mean abundance or egg production rates. Instead numerous other factors override, including: inter-annual variability in food quantity, high food baseline levels, turnover rates and prolonged seasonal availability, allowing extended periods of production. Furthermore many taxa, notably meroplankton, increased well before the spring bloom. While theoretically a chronic mismatch, this likely reflects trade-offs for example in predation avoidance. Various gelatinous taxa (Phaeocystis, Noctiluca, ctenophores, appendicularians, medusae) may have reduced these predation constraints, with variable, explosive population outbursts likely responding to improved conditions. The match–mismatch hypothesis may apply for highly seasonal, pulsed systems or specialist feeders, but we suggest that the concept is being over-extended to other marine systems where multiple factors compensate.

Design and physicochemical characterisation of a bioadhesive patch for dose-controlled topical delivery of imiquimod

Clinical use of the imidazoquinoline immunomodulator imiquimod for the topical treatment of dysplastic and neoplastic lesions has increased markedly in recent years. However, despite guidance from the manufacturer of the proprietary imiquimod cream, there seems to be little consensus between clinicians as to the topically applied dose. Given that patients often apply the cream themselves at home, further dosing variability is expected and, consequently, accurate comparison of the results of different published studies is dif?cult. This paper describes, for the ?rst time, the formulation and physicochemical characterisation of a bioadhesive patch for dose-controlled topical delivery of imiquimod as well as a new HPLC method for sensitive ?uorescence determination of imiquimod released from such systems. Patches containing imiquimod loadings of 4.75, 9.50 and 12.50 mg cm-2 all released signi?cantly more drug across a model membrane than the proprietary cream over a period of 6 h. Inclusion of imiquimod in patches did not adversely affect their physicochemical properties. Of major importance, patches contained de?ned drug loadings per unit area; therefore, their use could reduce inter-clinician variability. This would make critical comparison of clinical studies and determination of an appropriate imiquimod dose for successful treatment much simpler. Since bioadhesive formulations are capable of adhering to body tissues in moist environments, the use of a bioadhesive patch system may allow extension of the clinical uses of imiquimod to the treatment of neoplastic conditions of the oral cavity and cervix, as well as the vulva. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assisted Diagnosis of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN)

This paper introduces an automated computer- assisted system for the diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) using ultra-large cervical histological digital slides. The system contains two parts: the segmentation of squamous epithelium and the diagnosis of CIN. For the segmentation, to reduce processing time, a multiresolution method is developed. The squamous epithelium layer is first segmented at a low (2X) resolution. The boundaries are further fine tuned at a higher (20X) resolution. The block-based segmentation method uses robust texture feature vectors in combination with support vector machines (SVMs) to perform classification. Medical rules are finally applied. In testing, segmentation using 31 digital slides achieves 94.25% accuracy. For the diagnosis of CIN, changes in nuclei structure and morphology along lines perpendicular to the main axis of the squamous epithelium are quantified and classified. Using multi-category SVM, perpendicular lines are classified into Normal, CIN I, CIN II, and CIN III. The robustness of the system in term of regional diagnosis is measured against pathologists' diagnoses and inter-observer variability between two pathologists is considered. Initial results suggest that the system has potential as a tool both to assist in pathologists' diagnoses, and in training.

Sex differences in fetal habituation

There is some evidence for sex differences in habituation in the human fetus, but it is unknown whether this is due to differences in central processing (habituation) or in more peripheral processes, sensory or motor, involved in the response. This study examined whether the sex of the fetus influenced auditory habituation at 33weeks of gestation, and whether this was due to differences in habituation or in the sensory or motor components using a set of four experiments. The first experiment found that female fetuses required significantly fewer stimulus presentations to habituate than males. The second experiment revealed no difference in the spontaneous motor behaviour of male and female fetuses. The third experiment examined auditory intensity thresholds for the stimuli used to habituate the fetus. No differences in thresholds were found between males and females, although there was inter-individual variability in thresholds. A final experiment, using stimuli individualized for that particular fetus' auditory intensity threshold, found that female fetuses habituated faster than males. In combination, the studies reveal that habituation in the human fetus is affected by sex and this is due to a difference in central 'information processing' of the stimuli rather than peripheral aspects of the response. It is argued that male and female fetuses present different neurobehavioural developmental trajectories, with females more advanced at 33weeks than males. This study suggests that research examining prenatal behaviour should consider the factor of fetal sex. This may be particularly pertinent where there is an intention to use the results diagnostically. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Application of a mechanobiological simulation technique to stents used clinically

Many cardiovascular diseases are characterised by the restriction of blood flow through arteries. Stents can be expanded within arteries to remove such restrictions; however, tissue in-growth into the stent can lead to restenosis. In order to predict the long-term efficacy of stenting, a mechanobiological model of the arterial tissue reaction to stress is required. In this study, a computational model of arterial tissue response to stenting is applied to three clinically relevant stent designs. We ask the question whether such a mechanobiological model can differentiate between stents used clinically, and we compare these predictions to a purely mechanical analysis. In doing so, we are testing the hypothesis that a mechanobiological model of arterial tissue response to injury could predict the long-term outcomes of stent design. Finite element analysis of the expansion of three different stent types was performed in an idealised, 3D artery. Injury was calculated in the arterial tissue using a remaining-life damage mechanics approach. The inflammatory response to this initial injury was modelled using equations governing variables which represented tissue-degrading species and growth factors. Three levels of inflammation response were modelled to account for inter-patient variability. A lattice-based model of smooth muscle cell behaviour was implemented, treating cells as discrete agents governed by local rules. The simulations predicted differences between stent designs similar to those found in vivo. It showed that the volume of neointima produced could be quantified, providing a quantitative comparison of stents. In contrast, the differences between stents based on stress alone were highly dependent on the choice of comparison criteria. These results show that the choice of stress criteria for stent comparisons is critical. This study shows that mechanobiological modelling may provide a valuable tool in stent design, allowing predictions of their long-term efficacy. The level of inflammation was shown to affect the sensitivity of the model to stent design. If this finding was verified in patients, this could suggest that high-inflammation patients may require alternative treatments to stenting.

On sea level change in the North Sea influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation: local and remote steric effects

In this study, contributions of both local steric and remote baroclinic effects (i.e., steric variations external to the region of interest) to the inter-annual variability of winter sea level in the North Sea, with respect to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for the period of 1953–2010 are investigated. On inter-annual time scales in this period, the NAO is significantly correlated to sea level variations in the North Sea only in the winter months (December–March), while its correlation to sea temperature over much of the North Sea is only significant in January and February. The discrepancy in sea level between observations and barotropic tide and surge models forced by tides and local atmospheric forcing, i.e., local atmospheric pressure effects and winds, in the present study are found to be consistent with previous studies. In the North Sea, local thermosteric effects caused by thermal expansion play a minor role on winter-mean NAO related sea level variability compared with atmospheric forcing. This is particularly true in the southeastern North Sea where water depths are mostly less than 25 m. Our calculations demonstrate that the discrepancy can be mostly explained by remote baroclinic effects, which appear as water mass exchanges on the continental shelf and are therefore only apparent in ocean bottom pressure. In the North Sea, NAO related sea level variations seem to be a hybrid of barotropic and baroclinic processes. Hence, they can only be adequately modelled with three-dimensional baroclinic ocean models that include contributions of baroclinic effects and large-scale atmospheric forcing external to the region of interest.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic analysis of tacrolimus in paediatric liver transplant patients

Aims: To build a population pharmacokinetic model that describes the apparent clearance of tacrolimus and the potential demographic, clinical and genetically controlled factors that could lead to inter-patient pharmacokinetic variability within children following liver transplantation.

Methods: The present study retrospectively examined tacrolimus whole blood pre-dose concentrations (n = 628) of 43 children during their first year post-liver transplantation. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using the non-linear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance and influential covariates.

Results: The final model identified time post-transplantation and CYP3A5*1 allele as influential covariates on tacrolimus apparent clearance according to the following equation:

TVCL=12.9×(Weight /13.2)^0.75×EXP(-0.00158×TPT)×EXP(0.428×CYP3A5)

where TVCL is the typical value for apparent clearance, TPT is time post-transplantation in days and the CYP3A5 is 1 where*1 allele is present and 0 otherwise. The population estimate and inter-individual variability (%CV) of tacrolimus apparent clearance were found to be 0.977 l h kg (95% CI 0.958, 0.996) and 40.0%, respectively, while the residual variability between the observed and predicted concentrations was 35.4%.

Conclusion: Tacrolimus apparent clearance was influenced by time post-transplantation and CYP3A5 genotypes. The results of this study, once confirmed by a large scale prospective study, can be used in conjunction with therapeutic drug monitoring to recommend tacrolimus dose adjustments that take into account not only body weight but also genetic and time-related changes in tacrolimus clearance. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

Viability of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in cough aerosols generated by persons with cystic fibrosis

Background Person-to-person transmission of respiratory pathogens, including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, is a challenge facing many cystic fibrosis (CF) centres. Viable P aeruginosa are contained in aerosols produced during coughing, raising the possibility of airborne transmission.

Methods Using purpose-built equipment, we measured viable P aeruginosa in cough aerosols at 1, 2 and 4 m from the subject (distance) and after allowing aerosols to age for 5, 15 and 45 min in a slowly rotating drum to minimise gravitational settling and inertial impaction (duration). Aerosol particles were captured and sized employing an Anderson Impactor and cultured using conventional microbiology. Sputum was also cultured and lung function and respiratory muscle strength measured.

Results Nineteen patients with CF, mean age 25.8 (SD 9.2) years, chronically infected with P aeruginosa, and 10 healthy controls, 26.5 (8.7) years, participated. Viable P aeruginosa were detected in cough aerosols from all patients with CF, but not from controls; travelling 4 m in 17/18 (94%) and persisting for 45 min in 14/18 (78%) of the CF group. Marked inter-subject heterogeneity of P aeruginosa aerosol colony counts was seen and correlated strongly (r=0.73-0.90) with sputum bacterial loads. Modelling decay of viable P aeruginosa in a clinic room suggested that at the recommended ventilation rate of two air changes per hour almost 50 min were required for 90% to be removed after an infected patient left the room.

Conclusions: Viable P aeruginosa in cough aerosols travel further and last longer than recognised previously, providing additional evidence of airborne transmission between patients with CF.