Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR)models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It iswell-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend uponwhether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, thelimiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. Inthe discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannotbe estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by theuse of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extendedto situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In thiscase, also the inference for the regression parameters of the modelbecomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there aswell. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity ofthe SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Estimates of patient costs related with population morbidity: Can indirect costs affect the results?

A number of health economics works require patient cost estimates as a basic information input.However the accuracy of cost estimates remains in general unspecified. We propose to investigate howthe allocation of indirect costs or overheads can affect the estimation of patient costs in order to allow forimprovements in the analysis of patient costs estimates. Instead of focusing on the costing method, thispaper proposes to highlight changes in variance explained observed when a methodology is chosen. Wecompare three overhead allocation methods for a specific Spanish population adjusted using the ClinicalRisk Groups (CRG), and we obtain different series of full-cost group estimates. As a result, there aresignificant gains in the proportion of the variance explained, depending upon the methodology used.Furthermore, we find that the global amount of variation explained by risk adjustment models dependsmainly on direct costs and is independent of the level of aggregation used in the classification system.

Indirect hydrogen monitoring by chemi-ionisation following an associative ionisation pathway after metastable helium atoms production by electron impact ionisation: Protonation and deuteration of carrier gas

Gas chromatography (GC) is an analytical tool very useful to investigate the composition of gaseous mixtures. However, hydrogen (H2) detection after a GC separation is only possible with a Thermal Conductivity Detector (TCD), a Helium Ionisation Detector (HID) or expensive Atomic Emission Detector (AED). Recently, indirect H2 detection by GC coupled to mass spectrometry (MS) was demonstrated but the mechanism of carrier gas protonation remained unclear. With electron impact as ionisation source of MS and helium (He) as GC carrier gas, H2 is not ionised according the expected Penning ionisation neither according to the Associative ionisation. Rearrangement ionisation (RI) was found to be the main channel for H2 and D2 ionisation under GC-MS conditions used in most of laboratories using GC-MS, leading to the formation of [He−H]+ and [He−D]+ ions.

Incremental Validity and Indirect effect of Ethical Development on Work Performance

We modeled work performance as outcomes of individual-differences mediated by technical performance. Beyond the "usual suspects" (e.g., general mental ability, and personality), we also measured the ethical development of participants (n = 460). We surmised that ethical development - which has not been extensively studied as a predictor of work performance while controlling for established predictors - captures unique variance in both technical and work performance. Results demonstrated incremental validity for ethical development in predicting technical performance, which in turn predicted work performance. The indirect effect of ethical development was significant too. Our results highlight the importance of process models of performance, which include proximal as well as distal individual differences.

Evaluating Direct and Indirect Economic Outcomes of the 2008 Iowa Weather‐Related Disasters

This research seeks to fill some of the gaps in understanding the local, regional, and statewide economic consequences of the disasters of 2008. This report evaluates sets of population, unemployment, employment, business firms, and trade patterns over time in an attempt to discern the household consumption and business productivity disruptions caused by the weather disasters of 2008.

A tailored approach for the treatment of indirect inguinal hernia in adults--an old problem revisited.

A patent processus vaginalis peritonei (PPV) presents typically as an indirect hernia with an intact inguinal canal floor during childhood. Little is known however about PPV in adults and its best treatment. A cohort study included all consecutive patients admitted for ambulatory open hernia repair. In patients with a PPV, demographics, hernia characteristics, and outcome were prospectively assessed. Annulorrhaphy was the treatment of choice in patients with an internal inguinal ring diameter of < 30 mm. Between 1998 and 2006, 92 PPVs (two bilateral) were diagnosed in 676 open hernia repairs (incidence of 14%). Eighty nine of the 90 patients were males, the median age was 34 years (range: 17-85). A PPV was right-sided in 67% and partially obliterated in 66%. Forty-one patients had an annulorrhaphy and 51 patients had a tension-free mesh repair. The median operation time was significantly shorter in the annulorrhaphy group (38 vs. 48 min, P <.0001). In a median follow-up period of 56 months (27-128), both groups did not differ concerning recurrence (1/41 vs. 2/51), chronic pain (3/41 vs. 4/51), and hypoesthesia (5/41 vs. 9/51). There was however a clear trend to less neuropathic symptoms in favor of annulorrhaphy (0/41 vs. 5/51, P < 0.066). PPV occurs in 14% of adults undergoing hernia repair. In selected patients, annulorrhaphy takes less time and is associated with equally low recurrence but less potential for neuropathic symptoms.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Inference of chromosomal inversion dynamics from Pool-Seq data in natural and laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster.

Sequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) represents a reliable and cost-effective approach for estimating genome-wide SNP and transposable element insertion frequencies. However, Pool-Seq does not provide direct information on haplotypes so that, for example, obtaining inversion frequencies has not been possible until now. Here, we have developed a new set of diagnostic marker SNPs for seven cosmopolitan inversions in Drosophila melanogaster that can be used to infer inversion frequencies from Pool-Seq data. We applied our novel marker set to Pool-Seq data from an experimental evolution study and from North American and Australian latitudinal clines. In the experimental evolution data, we find evidence that positive selection has driven the frequencies of In(3R)C and In(3R)Mo to increase over time. In the clinal data, we confirm the existence of frequency clines for In(2L)t, In(3L)P and In(3R)Payne in both North America and Australia and detect a previously unknown latitudinal cline for In(3R)Mo in North America. The inversion markers developed here provide a versatile and robust tool for characterizing inversion frequencies and their dynamics in Pool-Seq data from diverse D. melanogaster populations.

Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.