Shaken, not stirred: the impact of disasters on international trade

This paper examines the impact of major disasters on import and export flows using a gravity model (170 countries, 1962–2004). As a conservative estimate, an additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. Despite the apparent persistence of bilateral trade volumes, we find that the driving forces determining the impact of disastrous events are the level of democracy and the geographical size of the affected country. The less democratic and the smaller a country the greater is its loss due to a catastrophe. In autocracies, exports and imports are significantly reduced. Had Togo been struck by a major disaster in 2000, it would have lost 6.2% of its imports and 3.7% of its exports. While democratic countries' exports suffer identical decreases, imports increase.

On the environmental valuation of catastrophe: revisiting mining disasters in the United Kingdom, 1851-1962

In the context of environmental valuation of natural disasters, an important component of the evaluation procedure lies in determining the periodicity of events. This paper explores alternative methodologies for determining such periodicity, illustrating the advantages and the disadvantages of the separate methods and their comparative predictions. The procedures employ Bayesian inference and explore recent advances in computational aspects of mixtures methodology. The procedures are applied to the classic data set of Maguire et al (Biometrika, 1952) which was subsequently updated by Jarrett (Biometrika, 1979) and which comprise the seminal investigations examining the periodicity of mining disasters within the United Kingdom, 1851-1962.

Urban integrated meteorological observations: practice and experience in Shanghai, China

Observations of atmospheric conditions and processes in citiesare fundamental to understanding the interactions between the urban surface and weather/climate, improving the performance of urban weather, air quality and climate models, and providing key information for city end-users (e.g. decision-makers, stakeholders, public). In this paper, Shanghai's urban integrated meteorological observation network (SUIMON) and some examples of intended applications are introduced. Its characteristics include being: multi- purpose (e.g. forecast, research, service), multi-function (high impact weather, city climate, special end-users), multi-scale (e.g. macro/meso-, urban-, neighborhood, street canyon), multi-variable (e.g. thermal, dynamic, chemical, bio-meteorological, ecological), and multi- platform (e.g. radar, wind profiler, ground-based, satellite based, in-situ observation/ sampling). Underlying SUIMON is a data management system to facilitate exchange of data and information. The overall aim of the network is to improve coordination strategies and instruments; to identify data gaps based on science and user driven requirements; and to intelligently combine observations from a variety of platforms by using a data assimilation system that is tuned to produce the best estimate of the current state of the urban atmosphere.

Meteorological factors controlling low-level continental pollutant outflow across a coast

Coastal outflow describes the horizontal advection of pollutants from the continental boundary layer across a coastline into a layer above the marine boundary layer. This process can ventilate polluted continental boundary layers and thus regulate air quality in highly populated coastal regions. This paper investigates the factors controlling coastal outflow and quantifies its importance as a ventilation mechanism. Tracers in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are used to examine the magnitude and variability of coastal outflow over the eastern United States for a 4 week period during summer 2004. Over the 4 week period, ventilation of tracer from the continental boundary layer via coastal outflow occurs with the same magnitude as vertical ventilation via convection and advection. The relative importance of tracer decay rate, cross-coastal advection rate, and a parameter based on the relative continental and marine boundary layer heights, on coastal outflow is assessed by reducing the problem to a time-dependent box-model. The ratio of the advection rate and decay rate is a dimensionless parameter which determines whether tracers are long-lived or short-lived. Long- and short-lived tracers exhibit different behaviours with respect to coastal outflow. For short-lived tracers, increasing the advection rate increases the diurnally averaged magnitude of coastal outflow, but has the opposite effect for very long-lived tracers. Short-lived tracers exhibit large diurnal variability in coastal outflow but long-lived tracers do not. By combining the MetUM and box-model simulations a landwidth is determined which represents the distance inland over which emissions contribute significantly to coastal outflow. A landwidth of between 100 and 400 km is found to be representative for a tracer with a lifetime of 24 h.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd - highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data

The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set has been generated using the same methodology as the widely used WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) by making use of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We discuss the specifics of how changes in the reanalysis and processing have led to improvement over the WFD. We attribute improvements in precipitation and wind speed to the latest reanalysis basis data and improved downward shortwave fluxes to the changes in the aerosol corrections. Covering 1979–2012, the WFDEI will allow more thorough comparisons of hydrological and Earth System model outputs with hydrologically and phenologically relevant satellite products than using the WFD.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

Location and characteristics of the reconnection X line deduced from low-altitude satellite and ground-based observations: 2. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and European Incoherent Scatter data

We present an analysis of a cusp ion step, observed by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F10 spacecraft, between two poleward moving events of enhanced ionospheric electron temperature, observed by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar. From the ions detected by the satellite, the variation of the reconnection rate is computed for assumed distances along the open-closed field line separatrix from the satellite to the X line, do. Comparison with the onset times of the associated ionospheric events allows this distance to be estimated, but with an uncertainty due to the determination of the low-energy cutoff of the ion velocity distribution function, ƒ(ν). Nevertheless, the reconnection site is shown to be on the dayside magnetopause, consistent with the reconnection model of the cusp during southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Analysis of the time series of distribution function at constant energies, ƒ(ts), shows that the best estimate of the distance do is 14.5±2 RE. This is consistent with various magnetopause observations of the signatures of reconnection for southward IMF. The ion precipitation is used to reconstruct the field-parallel part of the Cowley D ion distribution function injected into the open low-latitude boundary layer in the vicinity of the X line. From this reconstruction, the field-aligned component of the magnetosheath flow is found to be only −55±65 km s−1 near the X line, which means either that the reconnection X line is near the stagnation region at the nose of the magnetosphere, or that it is closely aligned with the magnetosheath flow streamline which is orthogonal to the magnetosheath field, or both. In addition, the sheath Alfvén speed at the X line is found to be 220±45 km s−1, and the speed with which newly opened field lines are ejected from the X line is 165±30 km s−1. We show that the inferred magnetic field, plasma density, and temperature of the sheath near the X line are consistent with a near-subsolar reconnection site and confirm that the magnetosheath field makes a large angle (>58°) with the X line.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

Detection of recent changes in climate using meteorological data from south-eastern Bangladesh

Analysis of meteorological records from four stations (Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati, Sitakunda) in south-eastern Bangladesh show coherent changes in climate over the past three decades. Mean maximum daily temperatures have increased between 1980 and 2013 by ca. 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade, with changes of comparable magnitude in individual seasons. The increase in mean maximum daily temperature is associated with decreased cloud cover and wind speed, particularly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. During these two seasons, the correlation between changes in maximum temperature and clouds is between -0.5 and -0.7; the correlation with wind speed is weaker although similar values are obtained in some seasons. Changes in mean daily minimum (and hence mean) temperature differ between the northern and southern part of the basin: northern stations show a decrease in mean daily minimum temperature during the post-monsoon season of between 0.2 and 0.5°C per decade while southern stations show an increase of ca. 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. In contrast to the significant changes in temperature, there is no trend in mean or total precipitation at any station. However, there is a significant increase in the number of rain days at the northern sites during the monsoon season, with an increase per decade of 3 days in Sitakunda and 7 days at Rangamati. These climate changes could have a significant impact on the hydrology of the Halda Basin, which supplies water to Chittagong and is the major pisciculture centre in Bangladesh.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not exist. As numerical weather prediction models continue to improve, operational centres are increasingly using the meteorological output from these to drive hydrological models, creating hydrometeorological systems capable of forecasting river flow and flood events at much longer lead times than has previously been possible. Furthermore, developments in, for example, modelling capabilities, data and resources in recent years have made it possible to produce global scale flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the current state of operational large scale flood forecasting is discussed, including probabilistic forecasting of floods using ensemble prediction systems. Six state-of-the-art operational large scale flood forecasting systems are reviewed, describing similarities and differences in their approaches to forecasting floods at the global and continental scale. Currently, operational systems have the capability to produce coarse-scale discharge forecasts in the medium-range and disseminate forecasts and, in some cases, early warning products, in real time across the globe, in support of national forecasting capabilities. With improvements in seasonal weather forecasting, future advances may include more seamless hydrological forecasting at the global scale, alongside a move towards multi-model forecasts and grand ensemble techniques, responding to the requirement of developing multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction.

LOFZY 2005 - Field experiment on Cyclones over the Norwegian Sea: meteorological measurements of the research aircraft Falcon, 23 autonomous water buoys and radiosoundings at the research vessel Celtic Explorer

The field campaign LOFZY 2005 (LOFoten ZYklonen, engl.: Cyclones) was carried out in the frame of Collaborative Research Centre 512, which deals with low-pressure systems (cyclones) and the climate system of the North Atlantic. Cyclones are of special interest due to their influence on the interaction between atmosphere and ocean. Cyclone activity in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean is notably high and is of particular importance for the entire Atlantic Ocean. An area of maximum precipitation exists in front of the Norwegian Lofoten islands. One aim of the LOFZY field campaign was to clarify the role cyclones play in the interaction of ocean and atmosphere. In order to obtain a comprehensive dataset of cyclone activity and ocean-atmosphere interaction a field experiment was carried out in the Lofoten region during March and April 2005. Employed platforms were the Irish research vessel RV Celtic Explorer which conducted a meteorological (radiosondes, standard parameters, observations) and an oceanographic (CTD) program. The German research aircraft Falcon accomplished eight flight missions (between 4-21 March) to observe synoptic conditions with high spatial and temporal resolution. In addition 23 autonomous marine buoys were deployed in advance of the campaign in the observed area to measure drift, air-temperature and -pressure and water-temperature. In addition to the published datasets several other measurements were performed during the experiment. Corresonding datasets will be published in the near future and are available on request. Details about all used platforms and sensors and all performed measurements are listed in the fieldreport. The following datasets are available on request: ground data at RV Celtic Explorer