Information and efficiency: goal arrival in soccer betting

An efficient market incorporates news into prices immediately and fully. Tests for efficiency in financial markets have been undermined by information leakage. We test for efficiency in sports betting markets – real-world markets where news breaks remarkably cleanly. Applying a novel identification to high-frequency data, we investigate the reaction of prices to goals scored on the ‘cusp’ of half-time. This strategy allows us to separate the market's response to major news (a goal), from its reaction to the continual flow of minor game-time news. On our evidence, prices update swiftly and fully.

A tradition with breaks

An introduction to the history of stencil typefaces, followed by a survey of recent stencil typefaces (1990s to the present day) arranged in eight thematic sections.

Half-remembered quotations from mostly forgotten speeches: the limits of Labour’s European policy discourse

This article uses discourse analysis to study the continuities in British foreign policy thinking within the Labour party from the 1960s to the present day. Using representative extracts from speeches by Hugh Gaitskell, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it identifies the ideational consis- tencies in the leaders’ attitudes to: Empire; federalism in the EEC/EU; and laying down conditions that have to be met before any constructive engagement with ‘Europe’ can be countenanced. We argue that these consistencies, spanning a 50-year period, exemplify a certain stagnation both within Labour’s European discourses and within British foreign policy thinking more widely. We develop the idea that Labour party thinking has been crucially framed by both small ‘c’ conser- vative and upper-case Conservative ideology, popularised by Winston Churchill in his ‘three circles’ model of British foreign policy.

Evolution PDEs and augmented eigenfunctions. half line.

The solution of an initial-boundary value problem for a linear evolution partial differential equation posed on the half-line can be represented in terms of an integral in the complex (spectral) plane. This representation is obtained by the unified transform introduced by Fokas in the 90's. On the other hand, it is known that many initial-boundary value problems can be solved via a classical transform pair, constructed via the spectral analysis of the associated spatial operator. For example, the Dirichlet problem for the heat equation can be solved by applying the Fourier sine transform pair. However, for many other initial-boundary value problems there is no suitable transform pair in the classical literature. Here we pose and answer two related questions: Given any well-posed initial-boundary value problem, does there exist a (non-classical) transform pair suitable for solving that problem? If so, can this transform pair be constructed via the spectral analysis of a differential operator? The answer to both of these questions is positive and given in terms of augmented eigenfunctions, a novel class of spectral functionals. These are eigenfunctions of a suitable differential operator in a certain generalised sense, they provide an effective spectral representation of the operator, and are associated with a transform pair suitable to solve the given initial-boundary value problem.

Sex and STEM occupation predict Autism-spectrum Quotient (AQ) scores in half a million people

This study assesses Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ) scores in a ‘big data’ sample collected through the UK Channel 4 television website, following the broadcasting of a medical education program. We examine correlations between the AQ and age, sex, occupation, and UK geographic region in 450,394 individuals. We predicted that age and geography would not be correlated with AQ, whilst sex and occupation would have a correlation. Mean AQ for the total sample score was m = 19.83 (SD = 8.71), slightly higher than a previous systematic review of 6,900 individuals in a non-clinical sample (mean of means = 16.94) This likely reflects that this big-data sample includes individuals with autism who in the systematic review score much higher (mean of means = 35.19). As predicted, sex and occupation differences were observed: on average, males (m = 21.55, SD = 8.82) scored higher than females (m = 18.95; SD = 8.52), and individuals working in a STEM career (m = 21.92, SD = 8.92) scored higher than individuals non-STEM careers (m = 18.92, SD = 8.48). Also as predicted, age and geographic region were not meaningfully correlated with AQ. These results support previous findings relating to sex and STEM careers in the largest set of individuals for which AQ scores have been reported and suggest the AQ is a useful self-report measure of autistic traits

Estrogen regulation of chicken riboflavin carrier protein gene is mediated by ERE half sites without direct binding of estrogen receptor

Estrogen is an important steroid hormone that mediates most of its effects on regulation of gene expression by binding to intracellular receptors. The consensus estrogen response element (ERE) is a 13 bp palindromic inverted repeat with a three nucleotide spacer. However, several reports suggest that many estrogen target genes are regulated by diverse elements, such as imperfect EREs and ERE half sites (ERE 1/2), which are either the proximal or the distal half of the palindrome. To gain more insight into ERE half site-mediated gene regulation, we used a region from the estrogen-regulated chicken riboflavin carrier protein (RCP) gene promoter that contains ERE half sites. Using moxestrol, an analogue of estrogen and transient transfection of deletion and mutation containing RCP promoter/reporter constructs in chicken hepatoma (LMH2A) cells, we identified an estrogen response unit (ERU) composed of two consensus ERE 1/2 sites and one non-consensus ERE 1/2 site. Mutation of any of these sites within this ERU abolishes moxestrol response. Further, the ERU is able to confer moxestrol responsiveness to a heterologous promoter. Interestingly, RCP promoter is regulated by moxestrol in estrogen responsive human MCF-7 cells, but not in other cell lines such as NIH3T3 and HepG2 despite estrogen receptor-alpha (ER-�) co transfection. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSAs) with promoter regions encompassing the half sites and nuclear extracts from LMH2A cells show the presence of a moxestrol-induced complex that is abolished by a polyclonal anti-ER� antibody. Surprisingly, estrogen receptor cannot bind to these promoter elements in isolation. Thus, there appears to be a definite requirement for some other factor(s) in addition to estrogen receptor, for the generation of a suitable response of this promoter to estrogen. Our studies therefore suggest a novel mechanism of gene regulation by estrogen, involving ERE half sites without direct binding of ER to the cognate elements.

Breaks in the radial oxygen abundance and corotation radius of three spiral galaxies

The correlation between the breaks in the metallicity distribution and the corotation radius of spiral galaxies has been already advocated in the past and is predicted by a chemodynamical model of our Galaxy that effectively introduces the role of spiral arms in the star formation rate. In this work, we present photometric and spectroscopic observations made with the Gemini Telescope for three of the best candidates of spiral galaxies to have the corotation inside the optical disc: IC 0167, NGC 1042 and NGC 6907. We observed the most intense and well-distributed H ii regions of these galaxies, deriving reliable galactocentric distances and oxygen abundances by applying different statistical methods. From these results, we confirm the presence of variations in the gradients of metallicity of these galaxies that are possibly correlated with the corotation resonance.

Mobius Sequence in a Girl and Arthrogryposis in her Half-Brother: Distinct Phenotypes Caused By Prenatal Injuries

Mobius sequence is a congenital facial and abducens nerve palsy, frequently associated to abnormalities of extremities. Arthrogryposis multiplex congenital is defined as a congenital fixation of multiple joints seldom of neurogenic origin. Both sequences must have a genetic origin, but usually are sporadic cases related to environmental factors such as drugs exposition and maternal trauma. A 5-year-old girl and a 1-year-old boy were born with Mobius sequence and arthrogryposis multiplex congenital, respectively. During pregnancies, the mother had vaginal bleeding at 7 weeks and used crack (free-based cocaine) in the first trimester, respectively. The girl also has equinovarus talipes and autistic behavior. The boy has arthrogryposis with flexion contractures of the feet and knees. A vascular disruption, due to hemorrhage and cocaine exposure, causing a transient ischemic insult to embryos in a critical period of development may be responsible for distinct phenotypes in these cases.

BIRD FORAGING IN ANACARDIUM PATCHES IN CENTRAL BRAZILIAN FIRE BREAKS: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FLOCK SIZE AND PATCH SIZE

Fire management ran increase the biomass of some plant species at fire breaks in reserves of the Cerrado. For example, numerous and large patches of monkey-nuts (Anacardium humile, Anacardiaceae) provide abundant food resources for wildlife in the lower strata of savanna woodlands managed by fire. The objective of this study was to examine the exploitation of A. humile patches by birds in managed savanna woodlands (fire breaks) at Emas National Park, southwest Brazil. The relationship between flock size and the size of Anacardium patches were also investigated. Fire breaks were sampled in September and October 2006, when fruits and flowers were abundant. Ara ararauna was often recorded exploiting resources of Anacardium patches. This species and other psittacids (Amazona aestiva, Alipiopsittaca xanthops, and Diopsittaca nobilis) consumed seeds usually on the ground around fruiting patches. Members of Aratinga aurea flocks and Ramphastos toco consumed pseudo-fruits. Larger flocks detected were those of A. aurea and A. ararauna. Groups of A. ararauna that exploited larger patches tended to be larger than flocks that exploited smaller patches. This study suggests that intra- and interspecific interactions and characteristics of Anacardium patches and of the surrounding vegetation are involved in the feeding ecology of birds in the lower stratum of managed woodlands. Fruiting Anacardium patches attract numerous frugivorous birds to fire breaks at Emas National Park. Further research is needed to a better understanding of the influence of fire management on birds in the Cerrado. Accepted 31 July 2009.