Structural macro factors and the affine term structure of interest rates

This work consists of three essays investigating the ability of structural macroeconomic models to price zero coupon U.S. government bonds. 1. A small scale 3 factor DSGE model implying constant term premium is able to provide reasonable a fit for the term structure only at the expense of the persistence parameters of the structural shocks. The test of the structural model against one that has constant but unrestricted prices of risk parameters shows that the exogenous prices of risk-model is only weakly preferred. We provide an MLE based variance-covariance matrix of the Metropolis Proposal Density that improves convergence speeds in MCMC chains. 2. Affine in observable macro-variables, prices of risk specification is excessively flexible and provides term-structure fit without significantly altering the structural parameters. The exogenous component of the SDF is separating the macro part of the model from the term structure and the good term structure fit has as a driving force an extremely volatile SDF and an implied average short rate that is inexplicable. We conclude that the no arbitrage restrictions do not suffice to temper the SDF, thus there is need for more restrictions. We introduce a penalty-function methodology that proves useful in showing that affine prices of risk specifications are able to reconcile stable macro-dynamics with good term structure fit and a plausible SDF. 3. The level factor is reproduced most importantly by the preference shock to which it is strongly and positively related but technology and monetary shocks, with negative loadings, are also contributing to its replication. The slope factor is only related to the monetary policy shocks and it is poorly explained. We find that there are gains in in- and out-of-sample forecast of consumption and inflation if term structure information is used in a time varying hybrid prices of risk setting. In-sample yield forecast are better in models with non-stationary shocks for the period 1982-1988. After this period, time varying market price of risk models provide better in-sample forecasts. For the period 2005-2008, out of sample forecast of consumption and inflation are better if term structure information is incorporated in the DSGE model but yields are better forecasted by a pure macro DSGE model.

Daily energy expenditure in free-living conditions in obese and non-obese children: comparison of doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method and heart-rate monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the heart-rate monitoring with the doubly labelled water (2H2(18)O) method to estimate total daily energy expenditure in obese and non-obese children. DESIGN: Cross sectional study of obese and normal weight children. SUBJECTS: 13 prepubertal children: six obese (4M, 2F, 9.1 +/- 1.5 years, 47.3 +/- 9.7 kg) and seven non-obese (3M, 4F, 9.3 +/- 0.6 years, 31.8 +/- 3.2 kg). MEASUREMENTS: Total daily energy expenditure was assessed by means of the doubly labelled water method (TEEDLW) and of heart-rate monitoring (TEEHR). RESULTS: TEEHR was significantly (P < 0.05) higher than TEEDLW in obese children (9.47 +/- 0.84 MJ/d vs 8.99 +/- 0.63 MJ/d) whereas it was not different in non-obese children (8.43 +/- 2.02 MJ/d vs 8.42 +/- 2.30 MJ/d, P = NS). The difference of TEE assessed by HR monitoring in the obese group averaged 6.2 +/- 4.7%. At the individual level, the degree of agreement (difference between TEEHR and TEEDLW +/- 2s.d.) was low both in obese (-0.36, 1.32 MJ/d) and in non-obese children (-1.30, 1.34 MJ/d). At the group level, the agreement between the two methods was good in nonobese children (95% c.i. for the bias:-0.59, 0.63 MJ/d) but not in obese children (0.04, 0.92 MJ/d). Duration of sleep and energy expenditure during resting and physical activity were not significantly different in the two groups. Patterns of heart-rate (or derived energy expenditure) during the day-time were similar in obese and non-obese children. CONCLUSION: The HR monitoring technique provides an estimation of TEE close to that assessed by the DLW method in non-obese prepubertal children. In comparison with DLW, the HR monitoring method yields a greater TEE value in obese children.

Differences in pharmaceutical consumption and expenses between immigrant and Spanish-born populations in Lleida, (Spain): a 6-months prospective observational study

Background: There are few studies comparing pharmaceutical costs and the use of medications between immigrants and the autochthonous population in Spain. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether there are differences in pharmaceutical consumption and expenses between immigrant and Spanish-born populations. Methods: Prospective observational study in 1,630 immigrants and 4,154 Spanish-born individuals visited by fifteen primary care physicians at five public Primary Care Clinics (PCC) during 2005 in the city of Lleida, Catalonia (Spain). Data on pharmaceutical consumption and expenses was obtained from a comprehensive computerized data-collection system. Multinomial regression models were used to estimate relative risks and confidence intervals of pharmaceutical expenditure, adjusting for age and sex. Results: The percentage of individuals that purchased medications during a six-month period was 53.7% in the immigrant group and 79.2% in the autochthonous group. Pharmaceutical expenses and consumption were lower in immigrants than in autochthonous patients in all age groups and both genders. The relative risks of being in the highest quartile of expenditure, for Spanish-born versus immigrants, were 6.9, 95% CI = (4.2, 11.5) in men and 5.3, 95% CI = (3.5, 8.0) in women, with the reference category being not having any pharmaceutical expenditure. Conclusion: Pharmaceutical expenses are much lower for immigrants with respect to autochthonous patients, both in the percentage of prescriptions filled at pharmacies and the number of containers of medication obtained, as well as the prices of the medications used. Future studies should explore which factors explain the observed differences in pharmaceutical expenses and if these disparities produce health inequalities.

Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador

This paper investigates the fiscal sustainability of an emerging, dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador. A cointegrated VAR approach is adopted in testing, first, if the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied in Ecuador and, second, in identifying the permanent and transitory shocks that affect a fiscal policy characterized by inertia and a heavy dependence on oil revenues. Following confirmation that the debt-GDP ratio does not place the Ecuadorian budget under any pressure, we reformulate the model and identify two forces that push the fiscal system out of equilibrium, namely, economic activity and oil revenues implemented in the government budget. We argue that Ecuador needs to recover control of its monetary policy and to promote the diversification of its economy in order that non-oil tax revenues can replace oil revenues as a pushing force. Finally, we calculate quarterly elasticities of tax revenues with respect to Ecuador’s GDP and that of eight Eurozone countries. We illustrate graphically how the Eurozone countries with low positive or high negative elasticities’ levels suffer debt problems after the crisis. This finding emphasizes the pressing need for Ecuador to strengthen the connection between its tax revenues and output, and also suggests that the convergence of these elasticities in the Eurozone might contribute to the success of an eventually future fiscal union.

Oxygen consumption of rats with broad intestinal resection

The study was performed to investigate possible alterations in oxygen consumption in an animal model with broad intestinal resection. Oxygen consumption and the thermal effect of a short meal were measured in rats subjected to short bowel syndrome. Four groups of rats were used. Group I was the control group, group II was sham operated, group III was submitted to 80% jejunum-ileum resection, and group IV was submitted to 80% jejunum-ileum resection with colon interposition. Ninety days after surgery, oxygen consumption was measured over a period of 6 h with the animals fasted overnight. The thermal effect of feeding was determined in another session of oxygen consumption measurement in animals fasted for 12 h. A 12-kcal meal was then introduced into the animal chamber and oxygen consumption was measured for a further 4 h. No differences in fasting oxygen consumption or in the thermal effect of the meal were detected among the groups studied. It is concluded that short bowel syndrome does not affect the overall energy expenditure of rats.

Evaluation of energy expenditure in forward and backward movements performed by soccer referees

The aim of this study was to measure the energy expenditure for locomotor activities usually performed by soccer referees during a match (walking, jogging, and running) under laboratory conditions, and to compare forward with backward movements. The sample was composed by 10 male soccer referees, age 29±7.8 years, body mass 77.5±6.2 kg, stature 1.78±0.07 m and professional experience of 7.33±4.92 years. Referees were evaluated on two separate occasions. On the first day, maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was determined by a maximal treadmill test, and on the second day, the oxygen consumption was determined in different speeds of forward and backward movements. The mean VO2max was 41.20±3.60 mL·kg-1·min-1 and the mean heart rate achieved in the last stage of the test was 190.5±7.9 bpm. When results of forward and backward movements were compared at 1.62 m/s (walking speed), we found significant differences in VO2, in metabolic equivalents, and in kcal. However, the same parameters in forward and backward movements at jogging velocities (2.46 m/s) were not significantly different, showing that these motor activities have similar intensity. Backward movements at velocities equivalent to walking and jogging are moderate-intensity activities, with energy expenditure less than 9 kcal. Energy expenditure was overestimated by at least 35% when calculated by mathematical equations. In summary, we observed that backward movements are not high-intensity activities as has been commonly reported, and when calculated using equations available in the literature, energy expenditure was overestimated compared to the values obtained by indirect calorimetry.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Recent empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) suggests that public spending shocks increase (crowd in) private consumption. Standard general equilibrium models predict the opposite. We show that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model in which public spending is chosen optimally can rationalize the crowding-in effect documented in the VAR literature. When such a model is used as a data-generating process, a VAR estimated using the artificial data yields a positive consumption response to an increase in public spending, consistent with the empirical findings. This result holds regardless of whether private and public purchases are complements or substitutes.

Essais sur les frictions financières dans les modèles d'équilibre général dynamique

Cette thèse examine les effets des imperfections des marchés financiers sur la macroéconomie. Plus particulièrement, elle se penche sur les conséquences de la faillite dans les contrats financiers dans une perspective d'équilibre général dynamique. Le premier papier construit un modèle qui utilise l'avantage comparatif des banques dans la gestion des situations de détresse financière pour expliquer le choix des firmes entre les prêts bancaires et les prêts du marché financier. Le modèle réussit à expliquer pourquoi les firmes plus petites préfèrent le financement bancaire et pourquoi les prêts bancaires sont plus répandus en Europe. Le premier fait est expliqué par le lien négatif entre la valeur nette de l'entreprise et la probabilité de faire faillite. Le deuxième fait s'explique par le coût fixe d'émission de bons plus élevé en Europe. Le deuxième papier examine l'interaction entre les contraintes de financement affectant les ménages et les firmes. Une interaction positive pourrait amplifier et augmenter la persistance de l'effet d'un choc agrégé sur l'économie. Je construis un nouveau modèle qui contient des primes de financement externes pour les firmes et les ménages. Dans le modèle de base avec prix et salaires flexibles, j'obtiens une faible interaction négative entre les coûts de financement des firmes et des ménages. Le facteur clé qui explique ce résultat est l'effet du changement contre cyclique du coût de financement des ménages sur leur offre de travail et leur demande de prêts. Dans une période d'expansion, cet effet augmente les taux d'intérêt, réduit l'investissement et augmente le coût de financement des entreprises. Le troisième papier ajoute les contraintes de financement des banques dans un modèle macroéconomiques avec des prêts hypothécaires et des fluctuations dans les prix de l'immobilier. Les banques dans le modèle ne peuvent pas complètement diversifier leurs prêts, ce qui génère un lien entre les risques de faillite des ménages et des banques. Il y a deux effets contraires des cycles économiques qui affectent la prime de financement externe de la banque. Premièrement, il y a un lien positif entre le risque de faillite des banques et des emprunteurs qui contribue à rendre le coût de financement externe des banques contre cyclique. Deuxiément, le lissage de la consommation par les ménages rend la proportion de financement externe des banques pro cyclique, ce qui tend à rendre le coût de financement bancaire pro cyclique. En combinant ces deux effets, le modèle peut reproduire des profits bancaires et des ratios d'endettement bancaires pro cycliques comme dans les données, mais pour des chocs non-financiers les frictions de financement bancaire dans le modèle n'ont pas un effet quantitativement significatif sur les principales variables agrégées comme la consommation ou l'investissement.

On the dynamic effects of fiscal policy

Dans le sillage de la récession mondiale de 2008-09, plusieurs questions ont été soulevées dans la littérature économique sur les effets à court et à long terme de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité économique par rapport à son signe, sa taille et sa durée. Ceux-ci ont des implications importantes pour mieux comprendre les canaux de transmission et l’efficacité des politiques budgétaires, avec la politique monétaire étant poursuivi, ainsi que pour leurs retombées économiques. Cette thèse fait partie de ce regain d’intérêt de la littérature d’examiner comment les changements dans la politique budgétaire affectent l’activité économique. Elle repose alors sur trois essais: les effets macroéconomiques des chocs de dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, les résultats macroéconomiques de l’interaction entre les politiques budgétaire et monétaire et le lien entre la politique budgétaire et la répartition des revenus. Le premier chapitre examine les effets des chocs de politique budgétaire (chocs de dépenses publiques et chocs de recettes fiscales) sur l’économie canadienne au cours de la période 1970-2010, en s’appuyant sur la méthode d’identification des restrictions de signe développée par Mountford et Uhlig [2009]. En réponse à la récession mondiale, les autorités fiscales dans les économies avancées, dont le Canada ont généralement mis en oeuvre une approche en deux phases pour la politique budgétaire. Tout d’abord, ils ont introduit des plans de relance sans précédent pour relancer leurs économies. Par exemple, les mesures de relance au Canada, introduites à travers le Plan d’action économique du Canada, ont été projetées à 3.2 pour cent du PIB dans le budget fédéral de 2009 tandis que l’ "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"(ARRA) a été estimé à 7 pour cent du PIB. Par la suite, ils ont mis en place des plans d’ajustement en vue de réduire la dette publique et en assurer la soutenabilité à long terme. Dans ce contexte, évaluer les effets multiplicateurs de la politique budgétaire est important en vue d’informer sur l'efficacité de telles mesures dans la relance ou non de l'activité économique. Les résultats montrent que les multiplicateurs d'impôt varient entre 0.2 et 0.5, tandis que les multiplicateurs de dépenses varient entre 0.2 et 1.1. Les multiplicateurs des dépenses ont tendance à être plus grand que les multiplicateurs des recettes fiscales au cours des deux dernières décennies. Comme implications de politique économique, ces résultats tendent à suggérer que les ajustements budgétaires par le biais de grandes réductions de dépenses publiques pourraient être plus dommageable pour l'économie que des ajustements budgétaires par la hausse des impôts. Le deuxième chapitre, co-écrit avec Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, estime les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses publiques aux Etats-Unis en fonction du cycle de la politique monétaire. Les chocs de dépenses publiques sont identifiés comme étant des erreurs de prévision du taux de croissance des dépenses publiques à partir des données d'Enquêtes des prévisionnistes professionnels et des informations contenues dans le "Greenbook". L'état de la politique monétaire est déduite à partir de la déviation du taux des fonds fédéraux du taux cible de la Réserve Fédérale, en faisant recours à une fonction lisse de transition. L'application de la méthode des «projections locales» aux données trimestrielles américaines au cours de la période 1965-2012 suggère que les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses fédérales sont sensiblement plus élevées quand la politique monétaire est accommodante que lorsqu'elle ne l'est pas. Les résultats suggèrent aussi que les dépenses fédérales peuvent stimuler ou non la consommation privée, dépendamment du degré d’accommodation de la politique monétaire. Ce dernier résultat réconcilie ainsi, sur la base d’un cadre unifié des résultats autrement contradictoires à première vue dans la littérature. Ces résultats ont d'importantes implications de politique économique. Ils suggèrent globalement que la politique budgétaire est plus efficace lorsqu'on en a le plus besoin (par exemple, lorsque le taux de chômage est élevé), si elle est soutenue par la politique monétaire. Ils ont également des implications pour la normalisation des conditions monétaires dans les pays avancés: la sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles conduirait à des multiplicateurs de dépenses fédérales beaucoup plus faibles qu'autrement, même si le niveau de chômage restait élevé. Ceci renforce la nécessité d'une calibration prudente du calendrier de sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles. Le troisième chapitre examine l'impact des mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sur la distribution des revenus dans un panel de 18 pays d'Amérique latine au cours de la période 1990-2010, avec un accent sur les deniers 40 pour cent. Il explore alors comment ces mesures fiscales ainsi que leur composition affectent la croissance des revenus des dernier 40 pour cent, la croissance de leur part de revenu ainsi que la croissance économique. Les mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sont identifiées par des périodes au cours desquels il existe une variation significative du déficit primaire corrigé des variations conjoncturelles en pourcentage du PIB. Les résultats montrent qu'en moyenne l'expansion budgétaire par la hausse des dépenses publiques est plus favorable à la croissance des revenus des moins bien-nantis que celle par la baisse des impôts. Ce résultat est principalement soutenu par la hausse des dépenses gouvernementales de consommation courante, les transferts et subventions. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. Cependant, l'expansion budgétaire pourrait soit n'avoir aucun effet sur la croissance économique ou entraver cette dernière à travers la hausse des dépenses en capital. Les résultats relatifs à la contraction budgétaire sont quelque peu mitigés. Parfois, les mesures de contraction budgétaire sont associées à une baisse de la croissance des revenus des moins bien nantis et à une hausse des inégalités, parfois l'impact de ces mesures est non significatif. Par ailleurs, aucune des mesures n’affecte de manière significative la croissance du PIB. Comme implications de politique économique, les pays avec une certaine marge de manœuvre budgétaire pourraient entamer ou continuer à mettre en œuvre des programmes de "filets de sauvetage"--par exemple les programmes de transfert monétaire conditionnel--permettant aux segments vulnérables de la population de faire face à des chocs négatifs et aussi d'améliorer leur conditions de vie. Avec un potentiel de stimuler l'emploi peu qualifié, une relance budgétaire sage par les dépenses publique courantes pourrait également jouer un rôle important pour la réduction des inégalités. Aussi, pour éviter que les dépenses en capital freinent la croissance économique, les projets d'investissements publics efficients devraient être prioritaires dans le processus d'élaboration des politiques. Ce qui passe par la mise en œuvre des projets d'investissement avec une productivité plus élevée capable de générer la croissance économique nécessaire pour réduire les inégalités.

Implications of Government Sponsored Social Security and Welfare Schemes on Socioeconomic Status of Small Scale Marine Fisherfolk in Kerala

A socio-economic research is required as an attempt to address the socio-economic issues facing small-scale fisheries. A study of the socio economic conditions of small-scale fishermen is a prerequisite for good design and successful implementation of effective assistance Programmes. It will provide an overall pidure of the structure, activities and standards of living of small-scale fisherfolk The study is confined to the coastal districts of Ernakulam, Thrissur and Malappuram districts. It also gives a picture of socio-economic conditions of the fisher folk in the study area. The variables that may depict the standard of living of the small-scale fisherfolk are occupational structure, family size, age structure, income, expenditure, education, housing and other social amenities. It attempts to see the asset creation of the fisherfolk with the help of government agencies, and the nature of savings and expenditure pattern of the fisherfolk. It also provides a picture of the indebtedness of the fisherfolk in the study area. The study analyses the schemes implemented by the government through its agencies, like Fisheries Department, Matsyaboard, and Matsyafed; and the awareness of fisherfolk regarding these schemes, their attitude and reactions, the extent of accessibility, and the viability of the schemes.

Targeted Public Distribution System in Food Grains:Extent of Utlization by the Tribal Population in Kerala

In India, Food Security meant supply of food grains and the medium was Public Distribution System. Public Distribution System (PDS) is a rationing mechanism that entitles households to specified quantities of selected commodities at subsidized prices. The Objectives of PDS are maintaining Price Stability, rationing during times of scarcity, welfare of the poor, and keeping a check on private trade. Kerala has registered remarkable improvement in poverty reduction in general over the years among all social sections, including scheduled caste and scheduled tribe population. As part of the structural adjustment intended to reduce public expenditure, PDS has been modified as Revamped PDS (RPDS) during 1992 and later on as Targeted PDS (TPDS) in 1997, intended to target households on the basis of income criterion, classifying people as Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL). TPDS provides 25Kg. of food gra.ins through the Fair Price Shops per month @ Rs.3/- per Kg. of rice/ wheat to the BPL category and @Rs.8.90 and Rs.6.7O for rice and wheat respectively to the APL category of people. Since TPDS is intended to target the poor people, the subsidy spent by the government for the scheme should be beneficial to the poor people and naturally they should utilize the benefits by purchasing the food grains allotted under the scheme. Several studies have shown that there is underutilization of the allotments under TPDS. Therefore, the extent of utilization of TPDS in food grains, how and why remains as a major hurdle, in improving the structure and system of PDS. Livelihood of the tribal population being under threat due to increasing degradation of the resources, the targeting system ought to be effective among the tribal population. Therefore, performance of the TPDS in food grains, in terms of the utilization by the tribal population in Kerala, impact thereof and the factors, if any, affecting proper utilization were considered as the research problem in this study. The study concentrated on the pattern of consumption of food grains by the tribal people, whether their hunger needs are met by distribution of food grains through the TPDS, extent to which TPDS in food grains reduce their share of expenditure on food in the total household expenditure, and the factors affecting the utilization of the TPDS in food grains by the tribal population. Going through the literature, it has been noted that only few studies concentrated on the utilization of TPDS in food grains among the tribal population in Kerala.The Research Design used in this study is descriptive in nature, but exploratory in some aspects. Idukki, Palakkad and Wayanad have more than 60% of the population of the tribals in the state. Within the three districts mentioned above, 14 villages with scheduled tribe concentration were selected for the study. 95 tribal colonies were selected from among the various tribal settlements. Collection of primary data was made from 1231 households with in the above tribal colonies. Analysis of data on the socio-economic factors of the tribal people, pattern of food consumption, extent of reduction in the share of expenditure on food among the household expenditure of the tribal people and the impact of TPDS on the tribal families etc. and testing of hypotheses to find out the relation/association of each of the six variables, using the data on BPL and APL categories of households separately have resulted in findings such as six percent of the tribal families do not have Ration Cards, average per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people utilizing TPDS meets 62% of their minimum requirement, whereas the per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people is higher than the national average per capita consumption, 63% deficiency in food grains may be felt by tribal people in general, if TPDS is withdrawn, and the deficit for BPL tribal people may be 82%, TPDS facilitates a reduction of 9.71% in the food expenditure among the total household expenditure of the tribal people in general, share of food to non-food among BPL category of tribals is 55:45 and 40:60 among the APL, Variables, viz. household income, number of members in the family and distance of FPS from tribal settlements etc. have influence on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the Fair Price Shops, and there is influence of household income and distance of FPS from tribal settlements on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the open market. Rationing with differential pricing on phased allotments, rectification of errors in targeting, anomalies in norms and procedures for classifying tribal people as BPL/APL, exclusive Income Generation for tribal population, paddy cultivation in the landholdings possessed by the tribal people, special drive for allotment of Ration Cards to the tribal people, especially those belonging to the BPL category, Mobile Fair Price Shops in tribal settlements, ensure quality of the food grains distributed through the TPDS, distribution of wheat flour in packed condition instead of wheat through the Fair Price Shops are recommended to address the shortcomings and weaknesses of the TPDS vis-avis the tribal population in Kerala.

Household Energy consumption pattern in rural Kerala

The present thesis critically analyzes the micro level issues that influence the rural household energy behavior in Kerala. The aim of the study is to examine the energy consumption pattern at the household level in rural Kerala and to assess the variations in rural household energy consumption pattern across geo-climatic and socio-economic clusters. The researcher assess the attitudes of the rural households towards energy sources, uses and devices. The study tries to identify the factors influencing the adoption of energy conservation practices and shift to the improved energy

Una aproximación al financiamiento de un sistema de protección social en Colombia

El documento hace una revisión de las principales fuentes de protección social que hay en Colombia y las características de los sistemas de protección de otros países. Se encuentra que gran parte de lo que se conoce como gasto social se destina al tema pensional y que los resultados de los fondos de solidaridad son muy pequeños frente a la autoprotección de los hogares. Se propone tener en cuenta los esfuerzos individuales y privados que hay en Colombia al diseñar un sistema de protección social, pues de lo contrario se estarían desincentivando estos esfuerzos.

Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.