Elections and stock market volatility: evidence in OECD countries and developing countries

Este trabalho estuda se existe impacto na volatilidade dos mercados de ações em torno das eleições nacionais nos países da OCDE e nos países em Desenvolvimento. Ao mesmo tempo, pretende, através de variáveis explicativas, descobrir os fatores responsáveis por esse impacto. Foi descoberta evidência que o impacto das eleições na volatilidade dos mercados de ações é maior nos países em Desenvolvimento. Enquanto as eleições antecipadas, a mudança na orientação política e o tamanho da população foram os factores que explicaram o aumento da volatilidade nos países da OCDE, o nível democrático, número de partidos da coligação governamental e a idade dos mercados foram os factores explicativos para os países em Desenvolvimento.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

Brazil’s 2014 presidential elections: the interconnection between election news and stock market behavior

This study researches whether there has been abnormal stock market behaviour in Brazil as a consequence of election news (observed via opinion polls), regarding the last Brazilian presidential election, held in October 2014. Via applying event study methodology, the research on the Ibovespa and Petrobras suggests that events in which Rousseff was gaining in share have been subject to negative abnormal returns, and events where Rousseff was loosing in share have led to positive abnormal returns. Moreover, volatility has been significantly elevated during the election period and volume has been found to have slightly increased.

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Funding was obtained from a Capes Fellowship to NM, grants CNPq Universal 481351/ 2011-6, CNPq PQ 306604/2012-4, FAPERN/CNPq Pronem 003/2011, Capes SticAmSud, and FAPESP/CEPID/Neuromat to S.R. CNPq Universal 473554/2011-9 and 480053/ 2013-8, CNPq PQ 308558/2011-1, FACEPE/CNPq-PRONEX APQ- 0203-1.05/08, FACEPE/CNPq-PRONEM APQ-1415-1.05/10, and CNAIPS to M.C

Funding was obtained from a Capes Fellowship to NM, grants CNPq Universal 481351/ 2011-6, CNPq PQ 306604/2012-4, FAPERN/CNPq Pronem 003/2011, Capes SticAmSud, and FAPESP/CEPID/Neuromat to S.R. CNPq Universal 473554/2011-9 and 480053/ 2013-8, CNPq PQ 308558/2011-1, FACEPE/CNPq-PRONEX APQ- 0203-1.05/08, FACEPE/CNPq-PRONEM APQ-1415-1.05/10, and CNAIPS to M.C

Trends in Funding, Internationalization, and Types of Study for Original Articles Published in Five Implant-Related Journals Between 2005 and 2009

Purpose: The aims of this study were to evaluate the trends in funding, geographic origin, and study types of original articles in the dental implant literature and to investigate the relationships among these factors. Materials and Methods: Articles published in Clinical Oral Implants Research, The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Implant Dentistry, and Journal of Oral Implantology from 2005 to 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each article included, extramural funding source, geographic origin, and study type were recorded. Descriptive and analytic analyses (alpha = .05), including a logistic regression analysis, and chi-square test were used where appropriate. Results: of a total of 2,085 articles published, 1,503 met the inclusion criteria. The most common source of funding was from industry (32.4%). The proportion of studies that reported funding increased significantly over time. Europe represented the highest percentage (55.8%) of published articles. Most of the articles reported on clinical studies (49.9%), followed by animal studies (25.9%). Articles from Asia and South America and animal and in vitro studies were significantly more likely to be funded. Conclusion: Almost half of the original dental implant articles were funded. The trend toward internationalization of authorship was evident. A strong association was observed between funding and geographic origin and between funding and study type. Most studies in North America and Europe were clinical studies and supported by industry, whereas a greater proportion of studies in Asia and South America were in vitro or animal studies funded through government resources. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2012;27:69-76

Authorship, Collaboration, and Funding Trends in Implantology Literature: Analysis of Five Journals From 2005 to 2009

Purpose: To identify the trend of authorship in dental implant by exploring the prevalence of coauthored articles and to investigate the collaboration efforts, trends in funding involved in original articles, and their relationships. Materials: Articles published in the Clinical Oral Implants Research, International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Implant Dentistry, and Journal of Oral Implantology from 2005 to 2009 were reviewed. Nonoriginal articles were excluded. For each included articles, number of authors, collaboration efforts, and extramural funding were recorded. Descriptive and analytical statistics (alpha = 0.05), including logistic regression analysis and chi(2) test, were used. Results: From a total of 2085 articles, 1503 met the inclusion criteria. Publications with 5 or more authors increased over time (P = 0.813). The amount of collaboration among different disciplines, institutions, and countries all increased. The greatest increase of collaboration was seen among institutions (P = 0.09). Non-funding studies decreased over time (P = 0.031). There was a strong association between collaboration and funding for the manuscripts during the years studied (OR, 1.5). Conclusion: The number of authors per articles and collaborative studies increased over time in implant-related journals. Collaborative studies were more likely to be funded. (Implant Dent 2011;20:68-75)

Funding of activities of the Caribbean Council for Science and Technology

Includes bibliography

Report of the Workshop on Investment Funding for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Projects in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: fourth quarter 2002

Includes bibliography

Elections and Democracy in Brazil: Victor Nunes Leal and the 1945 Transition

This article discusses the necessary conditions for a democratic government to prevail, with the study Coronelismo: the Municipality and Representative Government in Brazil as the point of departure. The article seeks to identify the book's causal explanations for the emergence of democracy, and more precisely for regimes in which governments lose elections. Why were elections not truly competitive over the course of the Empire and the First Republic? Why did they change after the fall of the Estado Novo? Nunes Leal was one of the few Brazilian authors to explicitly tackle this challenge.

Reputation, VC funding, and innovation: Evidence from the UK Micro and Nanotechnology sector

Startups’ contributions on economic growth have been widely realized. However, the funding gap is often a problem limiting startups’ development. To some extent, VC can be a means to solve this problem. VC is one of the optimal financial intermediaries for startups. Two streams of VC studies are focused in this dissertation: the criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate startups and the effect of VC on innovation. First, although many criteria have been analyzed, the empirical assessment of the effect of startup reputation on VC funding has not been investigated. However, reputation is usually positively related with firm performance, which may affect VC funding. By analyzing reputation from the generalized visibility dimension and the generalized favorability dimension using a sample of 200 startups founded from 1995 operating in the UK MNT sector, we show that both the two dimensions of reputation have positive influence on the likelihood of receiving VC funding. We also find that management team heterogeneity positively influence the likelihood of receiving VC funding. Second, studies investigating the effect of venture capital on innovation have frequently resorted to patent data. However, innovation is a process leading from invention to successful commercialization, and while patents capture the upstream side of innovative performance, they poorly describe its downstream one. By reflecting the introduction of new products or services trademarks can complete the picture, but empirical studies on trademarking in startups are rare. Analyzing a sample of 192 startups founded from 1996 operating in the UK MNT sector, we find that VC funding has positive effect on the propensity to register trademarks, as well as on the number and breadth of trademarks.