Europe’s reactive and protective muddling through: the results of a summit in fire fighting mode. EPC Post-Summit Analysis, 19 October 2015

The EU’s October summit was dominated by one issue; the migration and refugee crisis, with EU leaders intent on putting on a public display of unity after weeks of bitter arguments, and concentrating on fire-fighting and immediate measures to tackle the most pressing reasons for, and impacts of, the crisis. Longer-term measures to address some of the root causes of increased migratory flows, support for the integration of newly arrived refugees or the introduction of new channels of legal migration, were not discussed. The Summit also spent little time on two issues that had originally been expected to be a key part of the agenda: the forthcoming British referendum on EU membership, where irritation with the slow pace of talks and British vagueness about its demands were in evidence; and the governance of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), where EU leaders missed another opportunity for a thorough debate about future perspectives on the basis of the ‘Five Presidents’ Report’.

Hoyle's improved edition of the rules for playing fashionable games, containing copious directions for whist, quadrille, piquet, draughts, hazard, chess, together with an analysis of the game of chess.

Mode of access: Internet.

FIRES : Fire Information Retrieval and Evaluation System : a program for fire danger rating analysis /

"August 1997."

Analysis of reinforced concrete beams subjected to fire /

Includes bibliographical references (p. 41).

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

Multiple paradigms and organisational research: an analysis of work behaviour in the fire service

The thesis examines Kuhn's (1962, 1970) concept of paradigm, assesses how it is employed for mapping intellectual terrain in the social sciences, and evaluates it's use in research based on multiple theory positions. In so doing it rejects both the theses of total paradigm 'incommensurability' (Kuhn, 1962), and also of liberal 'translation' (Popper, 1970), in favour of a middle ground through the 'language-game of everyday life' (Wittgenstein, 1953). The thesis ultimately argues for the possibility of being 'trained-into' new paradigms, given the premise that 'unorganised experience cannot order perception' (Phillips, 1977). In conducting multiple paradigm research the analysis uses the Burrell and Morgan (1979) model for examining the work organisation of a large provincial fire Service. This analysis accounts for firstly, a 'functionalist' assessment of work design, demonstrating inter alia the decrease in reported motivation with length of service; secondly, an 'interpretive' portrayal of the daily accomplishment of task routines, highlighting the discretionary and negotiated nature of the day's events; thirdly, a 'radical humanist' analysis of workplace ideology, demonstrating the hegemonic role of officer training practices; and finally, a 'radical structuralist' description of the labour process, focusing on the establishment of a 'normal working day'. Although the argument is made for the possibility of conducting multiple paradigm research, the conclusion stresses the many institutional pressures serving to offset development.

Use of colour image analysis for assessment of fire damaged concrete

The aim of this project was to carry out a fundamental study to assess the potential of colour image analysis for use in investigations of fire damaged concrete. This involved:(a) Quantification (rather than purely visual assessment) of colour change as an indicator of the thermal history of concrete.(b) Quantification of the nature and intensity of crack development as an indication of the thermal history of concrete, supporting and in addition to, colour change observations.(c) Further understanding of changes in the physical and chemical properties of aggregate and mortar matrix after heating.(d) An indication of the relationship between cracking and non-destructive methods of testing e.g. UPV or Schmidt hammer. Results showed that colour image analysis could be used to quantify the colour changes found when concrete is heated. Development of red colour coincided with significant reduction in compressive strength. Such measurements may be used to determine the thermal history of concrete by providing information regarding the temperature distribution that existed at the height of a fire. The actual colours observed depended on the types of cement and aggregate that were used to make the concrete. With some aggregates it may be more appropriate to only analyse the mortar matrix. Petrographic techniques may also be used to determine the nature and density of cracks developing at elevated temperatures and values of crack density correlate well with measurements of residual compressive strength. Small differences in crack density were observed with different cements and aggregates, although good correlations were always found with the residual compressive strength. Taken together these two techniques can provide further useful information for the evaluation of fire damaged concrete. This is especially so since petrographic analysis can also provide information on the quality of the original concrete such as cement content and water / cement ratio. Concretes made with blended cements tended to produce small differences in physical and chemical properties compared to those made with unblended cements. There is some evidence to suggest that a coarsening of pore structure in blended cements may lead to onset of cracking at lower temperatures. The use of DTA/TGA was of little use in assessing the thermal history of concrete made with blended cements. Corner spalling and sloughing off, as observed in columns, was effectively reproduced in tests on small scale specimens and the crack distributions measured. Relationships between compressive strength/cracking and non-destructive methods of testing are discussed and an outline procedure for site investigations of fire damaged concrete is described.

Design and analysis of micro-channel heat-exchanger embedded in Low Temperature Co-fire Ceramic (LTCC)

Increased device density, switching speeds of integrated circuits and decrease in package size is placing new demands for high power thermal-management. The convectional method of forced air cooling with passive heat sink can handle heat fluxes up-to 3-5W/cm2; however current microprocessors are operating at levels of 100W/cm2, This demands the usage of novel thermal-management systems. In this work, water-cooling systems with active heat sink are embedded in the substrate. The research involved fabricating LTCC substrates of various configurations - an open-duct substrate, the second with thermal vias and the third with thermal vias and free-standing metal columns and metal foil. Thermal testing was performed experimentally and these results are compared with CFD results. An overall thermal resistance for the base substrate is demonstrated to be 3.4oC/W-cm2. Addition of thermal vias reduces the effective resistance of the system by 7times and further addition of free standing columns reduced it by 20times.

Numerical analysis of wooden slabs with perforations under fire conditions

Wood is considered an ideal solution for floors and roofs building construction, due the mechanical and thermal properties, associated with acoustic conditions. These constructions have good sound absorption, heat insulation and relevant architectonic characteristics. They are used in many civil applications: concert and conference halls, auditoriums, ceilings, walls… However, the high vulnerability of wooden elements submitted to fire conditions requires the evaluation of its structural behaviour with accuracy. The main objective of this work is to present a numerical model to assess the fire resistance of wooden cellular slabs with different perforations. Also the thermal behaviour of the wooden slabs will be compared considering different material insulation, with different sizes, inside the cavities. A transient thermal analysis with nonlinear material behaviour will be solved using ANSYS© program. This study allows to verify the fire resistance, the temperature evolution and the char-layer, throughout a wooden cellular slab with perforations and considering the insulation effect inside the cavities.

Fire analysis of car park building structures

The thermal loading of an open car park building structure is going to be analysed, based on different fire scenarios that depend on the type of vehicle (different heat release rate). The compartment is going to be fixed and the thermal effect on beams is going to be analysed, depending on the vehicle position. The result of simple calculation method will be used to determine several temperature-time curves. The simple calculation method (Hasemi method) is also to be compared with the calculations of the Elefir-EN calculation program to analyse the thermal effect of the localized fire on beams.

STABILITY ANALYSIS AND HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF SAN VICENTE VOLCANO IN CENTRAL EL SALVADOR

Geologic hazards affect the lives of millions of people worldwide every year. El Salvador is a country that is regularly affected by natural disasters, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tropical storms. Additionally, rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows are a major threat to the livelihood of thousands. The San Vicente Volcano in central El Salvador has a recurring and destructive pattern of landslides and debris flows occurring on the northern slopes of the volcano. In recent memory there have been at least seven major destructive debris flows on San Vicente volcano. Despite this problem, there has been no known attempt to study the inherent stability of these volcanic slopes and to determine the thresholds of rainfall that might lead to slope instability. This thesis explores this issue and outlines a suggested method for predicting the likelihood of slope instability during intense rainfall events. The material properties obtained from a field campaign and laboratory testing were used for a 2-D slope stability analysis on a recent landslide on San Vicente volcano. This analysis confirmed that the surface materials of the volcano are highly permeable and have very low shear strength and provided insight into the groundwater table behavior during a rainstorm. The biggest factors on the stability of the slopes were found to be slope geometry, rainfall totals and initial groundwater table location. Using the results from this analysis a stability chart was created that took into account these main factors and provided an estimate of the stability of a slope in various rainfall scenarios. This chart could be used by local authorities in the event of a known extreme rainfall event to help make decisions regarding possible evacuation. Recommendations are given to improve the methodology for future application in other areas as well as in central El Salvador.

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk. In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from a large storm. We account for the lifecycle costs of the project, which include those for the upfront construction of the berm, ongoing maintenance, land acquisition, and wetland and recreation zone construction. Benefits of the project include avoided fatalities, avoided residential and commercial damages, avoided utility and municipal damages, recreational and health benefits, avoided debris removal expenses, and avoided loss of function of key transportation and commercial infrastructure located in the area. Our estimate of the beneficial effects of the berm includes ecosystem services from wetlands and health benefits to the surrounding community from a park and nature system constructed along the berm. To account for the effects of climate change and verify that the project will maintain its effectiveness over the long term, we allow the risk of flooding to increase over time. Over our 50-year time horizon, we double the risk of 100- and 500-year flood events to account for the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding. Based on the economic analysis, the project is highly cost beneficial over its 50-year timeframe. This analysis demonstrates that climate change adaptation investments can be cost beneficial even though they mitigate the impacts of low-probability, high-consequence events.

Biomarker analysis in soils of the Amazon rainforest after vegetation fire.

The objective of this study was to determine the origin of organic matter incorporated in Amazon forest soils subjected to vegetation fire by analyzing the aliphatic biomarkers (n-alkanes) present in lipid extracts of soil samples.

Mainstreaming of Nature-Based Solutions for the mitigation of hydro-meteorological hazard: governance analysis of a socio- technical change

The Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) concept and approach were developed to simultaneously face challenges such as risk mitigation and biodiversity conservation and restoration. NBSs have been endorsed by major International Organizations such as the EU, the FAO and World Bank that are pushing to enable a mainstreaming process. However, a shift from traditional engineering “grey” solutions to wider and standard adoption of NBS encounters technical, social, cultural, and normative barriers that have been identified with a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, reports and expert interviews. The case of the region Emilia-Romagna was studied by developing an analytical framework that brought together the social-ecological context, the governance system and the characteristics of specific NBSs.