Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

Factors contributing to the differences in peritonitis rates between centers and regions

Despite improvements in connectology, peritoneal dialysis (PD) - associated peritonitis contributes significantly to morbidity and modality failure in patients maintained on PD therapy. A broad spectrum of organisms -gram-positive, gram-negative, fungal, anaerobic - are involved in this complication. In addition, a significant percentage of episodes involve polymicrobial and culture-negative infection. Technological advances are being developed to minimize the incidence of access-related complications such as peritonitis. Many traditional factors such as exit-site infection and poor technique have been already identified. In the present review, we discuss the geographic, patient selection, and clinical issues that can affect peritonitis rates in different areas of the world and in different centers in the same area.

Chronic renal failure in male and female rats

Gender influences the progression of chronic renal failure (CRF). We studied male (M) and female (F) Wistar rats for 90 days: castrated (CMc, n=7; CFc, n=6) and non castrated controls (CM, n=9; CF, n=6); castrated (CRFMc, n=8; CRFFc, n=6) and non castrated animals submitted to 5/6 nephrectomy (CRFM, n=13; CRFF, n=6). Data are expressed as mean ± SEM. Proteinuria (PTN) was higher in CRFM (554 ± 69mg/24h) compared to CRFMc (277 ± 85 mg/24h), but not in females (CRFF=193 ± 20mg/24h, CRFFc=164 ± 71mg/24h). Mesangial fractional volume increased in all CRF animals. CRF animals showed an increase of glomerular sclerosis index (GSI) and tubulointerstitial damage (TID) but in a smaller proportion in male castrated animals; the opposite occurred with females: castration induced an increase of these parameters. CRF animals showed increased cortical and glomerular fibronectin (FN) rates. Castration decreased glomerular and cortical FN rates in CRFM but not in females. In conclusion, proteinuria was higher in CRFM and probably led to glomerular and interstitial damage, as well as to FN accumulation, castration seems to protect against development of PTN, TID and FN accumulation in males. Castrated female rats presented mesangial expansion, with no changes in PTN, TID and FN rates. It seems that female sex hormones do not protect against renal disease progression, instead, we suggest that male sex hormones lead to acceleration of CRF.

Comparison between noninvasive mechanical ventilation and standard oxygen therapy in children up to 3 years old with respiratory failure after extubation: a pilot prospective randomized clinical study

Objectives: The effectiveness of noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation in preventing reintubation due to respiratory failure in children remains uncertain. A pilot study was designed to evaluate the frequency of extubation failure, develop a randomization approach, and analyze the feasibility of a powered randomized trial to compare noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation and standard oxygen therapy post extubation for preventing reintubation within 48 hours in children with respiratory failure.Design: Prospective pilot study.Setting: PICU at a university-affiliated hospital.Patients: Children aged between 28 days and 3 years undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation for greater than or equal to 48 hours with respiratory failure after programmed extubation.Interventions: Patients were prospectively enrolled and randomly assigned into noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation group and inhaled oxygen group after programmed extubation from May 2012 to May 2013.Measurements and Main Results: Length of stay in PICU and hospital, oxygenation index, blood gas before and after tracheal extubation, failure and reason for tracheal extubation, complications, mechanical ventilation variables before tracheal extubation, arterial blood gas, and respiratory and heart rates before and 1 hour after tracheal extubation were analyzed. One hundred eight patients were included (noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation group, n = 55 and inhaled oxygen group, n = 53), with 66 exclusions. Groups did not significantly differ for gender, age, disease severity, Pediatric Risk of Mortality at admission, tracheal intubation, and mechanical ventilation indications. There was no statistically significant difference in reintubation rate (noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation group, 9.1%; inhaled oxygen group, 11.3%; p > 0.05) and length of stay (days) in PICU (noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation group, 3 [116]; inhaled oxygen group, 2 [1-25]; p > 0.05) or hospital (noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation group, 19 [7-141]; inhaled oxygen group, 17 [8-80]).Conclusions: The study indicates that a larger randomized trial comparing noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation and standard oxygen therapy in children with respiratory failure is feasible, providing a basis for a future trial in this setting. No differences were seen between groups. The number of excluded patients was high.

Automated peritoneal dialysis is associated with better survival rates compared to continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis: a propensity score matching analysis

The impact of peritoneal dialysis modality on patient survival and peritonitis rates is not fully understood, and no large-scale randomized clinical trial (RCT) is available. In the absence of a RCT, the use of an advanced matching procedure to reduce selection bias in large cohort studies may be the best approach. The aim of this study is to compare automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) according to peritonitis risk, technique failure and patient survival in a large nation-wide PD cohort. This is a prospective cohort study that included all incident PD patients with at least 90 days of PD recruited in the BRAZPD study. All patients who were treated exclusively with either APD or CAPD were matched for 15 different covariates using a propensity score calculated with the nearest neighbor method. Clinical outcomes analyzed were overall mortality, technique failure and time to first peritonitis. For all analysis we also adjusted the curves for the presence of competing risks with the Fine and Gray analysis. After the matching procedure, 2,890 patients were included in the analysis (1,445 in each group). Baseline characteristics were similar for all covariates including: age, diabetes, BMI, Center-experience, coronary artery disease, cancer, literacy, hypertension, race, previous HD, gender, pre-dialysis care, family income, peripheral artery disease and year of starting PD. Mortality rate was higher in CAPD patients (SHR1.44 CI95%1.21-1.71) compared to APD, but no difference was observed for technique failure (SHR0.83 CI95%0.69-1.02) nor for time till the first peritonitis episode (SHR0.96 CI95%0.93-1.11). In the first large PD cohort study with groups balanced for several covariates using propensity score matching, PD modality was not associated with differences in neither time to first peritonitis nor in technique failure. Nevertheless, patient survival was significantly better in APD patients.

Low mechanical ventilation times and reintubation rates associated with a specific weaning protocol in an intensive care unit setting: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVES: A number of complications exist with invasive mechanical ventilation and with the use of and withdrawal from prolonged ventilator support. The use of protocols that enable the systematic identification of patients eligible for an interruption in mechanical ventilation can significantly reduce the number of complications. This study describes the application of a weaning protocol and its results. METHODS: Patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation for more than 24 hours were included and assessed daily to identify individuals who were ready to begin the weaning process. RESULTS: We studied 252 patients with a median mechanical ventilation time of 3.7 days (interquartile range of 1 to 23 days), a rapid shallow breathing index value of 48 (median), a maximum inspiratory pressure of 40 cmH2O, and a maximum expiratory pressure of 40 cm H2O (median). Of these 252 patients, 32 (12.7%) had to be reintubated, which represented weaning failure. Noninvasive ventilation was used postextubation in 170 (73%) patients, and 15% of these patients were reintubated, which also represented weaning failure. The mortality rate of the 252 patients studied was 8.73% (22), and there was no significant difference in the age, gender, mechanical ventilation time, and maximum inspiratory pressure between the survivors and nonsurvivors. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a specific weaning protocol resulted in a lower mechanical ventilation time and an acceptable reintubation rate. This protocol can be used as a comparative index in hospitals to improve the weaning system, its monitoring and the informative reporting of patient outcomes and may represent a future tool and source of quality markers for patient care.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of resin-bonded bridges after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the 5-year survival of resin-bonded bridges (RBBs) and to describe the incidence of technical and biological complications. METHODS: An electronic Medline search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on RBBs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Patients had to have been examined clinically at the follow-up visit. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poissons regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 6110 titles and 214 abstracts. Full-text analysis was performed for 93 articles, resulting in 17 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated survival of RBBs of 87.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.6-91.9%) after 5 years. The most frequent complication was debonding (loss of retention), which occurred in 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8-26.3%) of RBBs over an observation period of 5 years. The annual debonding rate for RBBs placed on posterior teeth (5.03%) tended to be higher than that for anterior-placed RBBs (3.05%). This difference, however, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.157). Biological complications, like caries on abutments and RBBs lost due to periodontitis, occurred in 1.5% of abutments and 2.1% of RBBs, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the high survival rate of RBBs, technical complications like debonding are frequent. This in turn means that a substantial amount of extra chair time may be needed following the incorporation of RBBs. There is thus an urgent need for studies with a follow-up time of 10 years or more, to evaluate the long-term outcomes.

A systematic review of the 5-year survival and complication rates of implant-supported single crowns

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this systematic review was to assess the 5-year survival of implant-supported single crowns (SCs) and to describe the incidence of biological and technical complications. METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on SCs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poisson's regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies from an initial yield of 3601 titles were finally selected and data were extracted. In a meta-analysis of these studies, survival of implants supporting SCs was 96.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 95.9-97.6%] after 5 years. The survival rate of SCs supported by implants was 94.5% (95% CI: 92.5-95.9%) after 5 years of function. The survival rate of metal-ceramic crowns, 95.4% (95% CI: 93.6-96.7%), was significantly (P=0.005) higher than the survival rate, 91.2% (95% CI: 86.8-94.2%), of all-ceramic crowns. Peri-implantitis and soft tissue complications occurred adjacent to 9.7% of the SCs and 6.3% of the implants had bone loss exceeding 2 mm over the 5-year observation period. The cumulative incidence of implant fractures after 5 years was 0.14%. After 5 years, the cumulative incidence of screw or abutment loosening was 12.7% and 0.35% for screw or abutment fracture. For supra-structure-related complications, the cumulative incidence of ceramic or veneer fractures was 4.5%. CONCLUSION: It can be concluded that after an observation period of 5 years, high survival rates for implants and implant-supported SCs can be expected. However, biological and particularly technical complications are frequent.

Heart failure events, and case fatalities in Switzerland based on hospital statistics and cause of death statistics

In Switzerland there is a shortage of population-based information on heart failure (HF) incidence and case fatalities (CF). The aim of this study was to estimate HF event rates and both in- and out-of-hospital CF rates.

Implant Failure Predictors in the Posterior Maxilla: A Retrospective Study of 273 Consecutive Implants

Background: The goal of this study was to retrospectively analyze a cohort of 136 patients who underwent dental implant placement in the posterior maxilla at the University of Connecticut Health Center to assess and identify predictors for implant failure in the posterior maxilla. Methods: Data were retrieved from patient charts to identify subjects older than 21 years of age who received dental implant(s) in the posterior maxilla. Patients without a postoperative baseline radiograph were excluded. A recall radiograph was taken 3 to 6 months after implant placement. If there was no recall radiograph, the subject was contacted for a recall visit that included a clinical evaluation and radiographs to determine the implant status. Based on a univariate screening, variables considered potential implant failure predictors included gender, diabetes, smoking, implant length, implant diameter, membrane use, sinus-elevation technique, and surgical complications. These parameters were further assessed, and a multivariable logistic regression was performed with implant failure as a dependant variable. All tests of significance were evaluated at the 0.05 error level. Results: Two hundred seventy-three implants were placed in the posterior maxilla. Fourteen implants failed (early and late failures combined), resulting in a 94.9% overall survival rate. The survival rates for the sinus-elevation group and native bone group were 92.2% and 96.7%, respectively (P = 0.090). Based on the multivariable analysis, sinus floor-elevation procedures were not associated with increased risk for implant failure (P = 0.702). In contrast, smoking and surgical complications had a statistically significant effect on implant failure; the odds ratios for implant failure were 6.4 (P = 0.025) and 8.2 (P = 0.004), respectively. Conclusion: Sinus-elevation procedures with simultaneous or staged implant placement do not increase the risk for implant failure, whereas smoking and surgical complications markedly increase the risk for implant failure.

BNP-guided vs symptom-guided heart failure therapy: the Trial of Intensified vs Standard Medical Therapy in Elderly Patients With Congestive Heart Failure (TIME-CHF) randomized trial

CONTEXT: It is uncertain whether intensified heart failure therapy guided by N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is superior to symptom-guided therapy. OBJECTIVE: To compare 18-month outcomes of N-terminal BNP-guided vs symptom-guided heart failure therapy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Randomized controlled multicenter Trial of Intensified vs Standard Medical Therapy in Elderly Patients With Congestive Heart Failure (TIME-CHF) of 499 patients aged 60 years or older with systolic heart failure (ejection fraction < or = 45%), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class of II or greater, prior hospitalization for heart failure within 1 year, and N-terminal BNP level of 2 or more times the upper limit of normal. The study had an 18-month follow-up and it was conducted at 15 outpatient centers in Switzerland and Germany between January 2003 and June 2008. INTERVENTION: Uptitration of guideline-based treatments to reduce symptoms to NYHA class of II or less (symptom-guided therapy) and BNP level of 2 times or less the upper limit of normal and symptoms to NYHA class of II or less (BNP-guided therapy). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were 18-month survival free of all-cause hospitalizations and quality of life as assessed by structured validated questionnaires. RESULTS: Heart failure therapy guided by N-terminal BNP and symptom-guided therapy resulted in similar rates of survival free of all-cause hospitalizations (41% vs 40%, respectively; hazard ratio [HR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.72-1.14]; P = .39). Patients' quality-of-life metrics improved over 18 months of follow-up but these improvements were similar in both the N-terminal BNP-guided and symptom-guided strategies. Compared with the symptom-guided group, survival free of hospitalization for heart failure, a secondary end point, was higher among those in the N-terminal BNP-guided group (72% vs 62%, respectively; HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.50-0.92]; P = .01). Heart failure therapy guided by N-terminal BNP improved outcomes in patients aged 60 to 75 years but not in those aged 75 years or older (P < .02 for interaction) CONCLUSION: Heart failure therapy guided by N-terminal BNP did not improve overall clinical outcomes or quality of life compared with symptom-guided treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN43596477.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of implant supported fixed dental prostheses with cantilever extensions after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review was to assess the survival rates of short-span implant-supported cantilever fixed dental prostheses (ICFDPs) and the incidence of technical and biological complications after an observation period of at least 5 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search supplemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective or retrospective cohort studies reporting data of at least 5 years on ICFDPs. Five- and 10-year estimates for failure and complication rates were calculated using standard or random-effect Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: The five studies eligible for the meta-analysis yielded an estimated 5- and 10-year ICFDP cumulative survival rate of 94.3% [95 percent confidence interval (95% CI): 84.1-98%] and 88.9% (95% CI: 70.8-96.1%), respectively. Five-year estimates for peri-implantitis were 5.4% (95% CI: 2-14.2%) and 9.4% (95% CI: 3.3-25.4%) at implant and prosthesis levels, respectively. Veneer fracture (5-year estimate: 10.3%; 95% CI: 3.9-26.6%) and screw loosening (5-year estimate: 8.2%; 95% CI: 3.9-17%) represented the most common complications, followed by loss of retention (5-year estimate: 5.7%; 95% CI: 1.9-16.5%) and abutment/screw fracture (5-year estimate: 2.1%; 95% CI: 0.9-5.1%). Implant fracture was rare (5-year estimate: 1.3%; 95% CI: 0.2-8.3%); no framework fracture was reported. Radiographic bone level changes did not yield statistically significant differences either at the prosthesis or at the implant levels when comparing ICFDPs with short-span implant-supported end-abutment fixed dental prostheses. CONCLUSIONS: ICFDPs represent a valid treatment modality; no detrimental effects can be expected on bone levels due to the presence of a cantilever extension per se.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

Definitive intensity modulated radiotherapy in locally advanced hypopharygeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma: mature treatment results and patterns of locoregional failure.

PurposeTo assess clinical outcomes and patterns of loco-regional failure (LRF) in relation to clinical target volumes (CTV) in patients with locally advanced hypopharyngeal and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HL-SCC) treated with definitive intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and concurrent systemic therapy.MethodsData from HL-SCC patients treated from 2007 to 2010 were retrospectively evaluated. Primary endpoint was loco-regional control (LRC). Secondary endpoints included local (LC) and regional (RC) controls, distant metastasis free survival (DMFS), laryngectomy free survival (LFS), overall survival (OS), and acute and late toxicities. Time-to-event endpoints were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models. Recurrent gross tumor volume (RTV) on post-treatment diagnostic imaging was analyzed in relation to corresponding CTV (in-volume, > 95% of RTV inside CTV; marginal, 20¿95% inside CTV; out-volume, < 20% inside CTV).ResultsFifty patients (stage III: 14, IVa: 33, IVb: 3) completed treatment and were included in the analysis (median follow-up of 4.2 years). Three-year LRC, DMFS and overall survival (OS) were 77%, 96% and 63%, respectively. Grade 2 and 3 acute toxicity were 38% and 62%, respectively; grade 2 and 3 late toxicity were 23% and 15%, respectively. We identified 10 patients with LRF (8 local, 1 regional, 1 local¿+¿regional). Six out of 10 RTVs were fully included in both elective and high-dose CTVs, and 4 RTVs were marginal to the high-dose CTVs.ConclusionThe treatment of locally advanced HL-SCC with definitive IMRT and concurrent systemic therapy provides good LRC rates with acceptable toxicity profile. Nevertheless, the analysis of LRFs in relation to CTVs showed in-volume relapses to be the major mode of recurrence indicating that novel strategies to overcome radioresistance are required.

Effects of dialysis modality on blood loss, bleeding complications and transfusion requirements in critically ill patients with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure.

Blood loss and bleeding complications may often be observed in critically ill patients on renal replacement therapies (RRT). Here we investigate procedural (i.e. RRT-related) and non-procedural blood loss as well as transfusion requirements in regard to the chosen mode of dialysis (i.e. intermittent haemodialysis [IHD] versus continuous veno-venous haemofiltration [CVVH]). Two hundred and fifty-two patients (122 CVVH, 159 male; aged 61.5±13.9 years) with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure were analysed in a sub-analysis of the prospective randomised controlled clinical trial-CONVINT-comparing IHD and CVVH. Bleeding complications including severity of bleeding and RRT-related blood loss were assessed. We observed that 3.6% of patients died related to severe bleeding episodes (between group P=0.94). Major all-cause bleeding complications were observed in 23% IHD versus 26% of CVVH group patients (P=0.95). Under CVVH, the rate of RRT-related blood loss events (57.4% versus 30.4%, P=0.01) and mean total blood volume lost was increased (222.3±291.9 versus 112.5±222.7 ml per patient, P <0.001). Overall, transfusion rates did not differ between the study groups. In patients with sepsis, transfusion rates of all blood products were significantly higher when compared to cardiogenic shock (all P <0.01) or other conditions. In conclusion, procedural and non-procedural blood loss may often be observed in critically ill patients on RRT. In CVVH-treated patients, procedural blood loss was increased but overall transfusion rates remained unchanged. Our data show that IHD and CVVH may be regarded as equivalent approaches in critically ill patients with dialysis-dependent acute renal failure in this regard.