828 resultados para expected value of information
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"July 1981."
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Photocopy of: 1975 ed. Santa Monica, Calif. : Rand.
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"July 1983"--Cover.
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Mode of access: Internet.
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BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.
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Penaeid prawns were sampled with a small seine net to test whether catches of postlarvae and juveniles in seagrass were affected by the distance of the seagrass (mainly Zostera capricorni) from mangroves and the density of the seagrass in a subtropical marine embayment. Sampling was replicated on the western and eastern sides of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Information on catches was combined with broad-scale spatial information on the distribution of habitats to estimate the contribution of four different categories of habitat (proximal dense seagrass, distal dense seagrass, proximal sparse seagrass, distal sparse seagrass) to the overall population of small prawns in these regions of Moreton Bay. The abundance of Penaeus plebejus and Metapenaeus bennettae was significantly and consistently greater in dense seagrass proximal to mangroves than in other types of habitat. Additionally, sparse seagrass close to mangroves supported more of these species than dense seagrass farther away, indicating that the role of spatial arrangement of habitats was more important than the effects of structural complexity alone. In contrast, the abundance of P. esculentus tended to be greatest in sparse seagrass distal from mangroves compared with the other habitats. The scaling up of the results from different seagrass types suggests that proximal seagrass beds on both sides of Moreton Bay provide by far the greatest contribution of juvenile M. bennettae and P. plebejus to the overall populations in the Bay.
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Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Professional English football combines publicly traded ownership shares with an active and observable wagering market. This article utilizes the information from these markets, presenting a model that may be used to estimate the impact of matches on club values. Such information is potentially useful as clubs assess the values of players and coaches based on their anticipated contributions to team performance. The article also illustrates the modelling of ‘binomial events,’ such as win/lose, hire/do not hire or approval/disapproval, and how market-determined price responses illuminate expectations.
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This thesis describes a project which has investigated the evaluation of information systems. The work took place in, and is related to, a specific organisational context, that of the National Health Service (NHS). It aims to increase understanding of the evaluation which takes place in the service and the way in which this is affected by the NHS environment. It also investigates the issues which surround some important types of evaluation and their use in this context. The first stage of the project was a postal survey in which respondents were asked to describe the evaluation which took place in their authorities and to give their opinions about it. This was used to give an overview of the practice of IS evaluation in the NHS and to identify its uses and the problems experienced. Three important types of evaluation were then examined in more detail by means of action research studies. One of these dealt with the selection and purchase of a large hospital information system. The study took the form of an evaluation of the procurement process, and examined the methods used and the influence of organisational factors. The other studies are concerned with post-implementation evaluation, and examine the choice of an evaluation approach as well as its application. One was an evaluation of a community health system which had been operational for some time but was of doubtful value, and suffered from a number of problems. The situation was explored by means of a study of the costs and benefits of the system. The remaining study was the initial review of a system which was used in the administration of a Breast Screening Service. The service itself was also newly operational and the relationship between the service and the system was of interest.
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There has been little research in health and safety management concernmg the application of information technology to the field. This thesis attempts to stimulate interest in this area by analysing the value of proprietary health and safety software to proactive health and safety management. The thesis is based upon the detailed software evaluation of seven pieces of proprietary health and safety software. It features a discussion concerning the development of information technology and health and safety management, a review of the key issues identified during the software evaluations, an analysis of the commercial market for this type of software, and a consideration of the broader issues which surround the use of this software. It also includes practical guidance for the evaluation, selection, implementation and maintenance of all health and safety management software. This includes a comprehensive software evaluation chart. The implications of the research are considered for proprietary health and safety software, the application of information technology to health and safety management, and for future research.
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The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.
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The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent on conservation interventions. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We explore this issue with a simulation study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for the conservation of multiple species using three scenarios comprising either divergent or partially overlapping objectives between the agents. The first scenario investigates the situation where both agents are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing 200 species, while a non-government organisation is focused on achieving additional protection for the ten rarest species. Simulated input data was generated using distributions taken from real data to model the cost of parcels, and the rarity and co-occurrence of species. We investigated three types of collaborative interactions between agents: acting in isolation, sharing information and pooling resources with the third option resulting in the agents combining their resources and effectively acting as a single entity. In each scenario we determine the cost savings when an agent moves from acting in isolation to either sharing information or pooling resources with the other agent. The model demonstrates how the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. Our model demonstrates a method for determining the range of costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.
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This paper presents the design and results of a task-based user study, based on Information Foraging Theory, on a novel user interaction framework - uInteract - for content-based image retrieval (CBIR). The framework includes a four-factor user interaction model and an interactive interface. The user study involves three focused evaluations, 12 simulated real life search tasks with different complexity levels, 12 comparative systems and 50 subjects. Information Foraging Theory is applied to the user study design and the quantitative data analysis. The systematic findings have not only shown how effective and easy to use the uInteract framework is, but also illustrate the value of Information Foraging Theory for interpreting user interaction with CBIR. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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To investigate if Magnetoencephalography (MEG) can add non-redundant information to guide implantation sites for intracranial recordings (IR). The contribution of MEG to intracranial recording planning was evaluated in 12 consecutive patients assessed pre-surgically with MEG followed by IR. Primary outcome measures were the identification of focal seizure onset in IR and favorable surgical outcome. Outcome measures were compared to those of 12 patients matched for implantation type in whom non-invasive pre-surgical assessment suggested clear hypotheses for implantation (non-MEG group). In the MEG group, non-invasive assessment without MEG was inconclusive, and MEG was then used to further help identify implantation sites. In all MEG patients, at least one virtual MEG electrode generated suitable hypotheses for the location of implantations. No differences in outcome measures were found between non-MEG and MEG groups. Although the MEG group included more complex patients, it showed similar percentage of successful implantations as the non-MEG group. This suggests that MEG can contribute to identify implantation sites where standard methods failed. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
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The value of knowing about data availability and system accessibility is analyzed through theoretical models of Information Economics. When a user places an inquiry for information, it is important for the user to learn whether the system is not accessible or the data is not available, rather than not have any response. In reality, various outcomes can be provided by the system: nothing will be displayed to the user (e.g., a traffic light that does not operate, a browser that keeps browsing, a telephone that does not answer); a random noise will be displayed (e.g., a traffic light that displays random signals, a browser that provides disorderly results, an automatic voice message that does not clarify the situation); a special signal indicating that the system is not operating (e.g., a blinking amber indicating that the traffic light is down, a browser responding that the site is unavailable, a voice message regretting to tell that the service is not available). This article develops a model to assess the value of the information for the user in such situations by employing the information structure model prevailing in Information Economics. Examples related to data accessibility in centralized and in distributed systems are provided for illustration.