Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Topographical, structural and geophysical characterization of fracture zones: implications for groundwater flow and vulnerability

The main objective of this study is to evaluate selected geophysical, structural and topographic methods on regional, local, and tunnel and borehole scales, as indicators of the properties of fracture zones or fractures relevant to groundwater flow. Such information serves, for example, groundwater exploration and prediction of the risk of groundwater inflow in underground construction. This study aims to address how the features detected by these methods link to groundwater flow in qualitative and semi-quantitative terms and how well the methods reveal properties of fracturing affecting groundwater flow in the studied sites. The investigated areas are: (1) the Päijänne Tunnel for water-conveyance whose study serves as a verification of structures identified on regional and local scales; (2) the Oitti fuel spill site, to telescope across scales and compare geometries of structural assessment; and (3) Leppävirta, where fracturing and hydrogeological environment have been studied on the scale of a drilled well. The methods applied in this study include: the interpretation of lineaments from topographic data and their comparison with aeromagnetic data; the analysis of geological structures mapped in the Päijänne Tunnel; borehole video surveying; groundwater inflow measurements; groundwater level observations; and information on the tunnel s deterioration as demonstrated by block falls. The study combined geological and geotechnical information on relevant factors governing groundwater inflow into a tunnel and indicators of fracturing, as well as environmental datasets as overlays for spatial analysis using GIS. Geophysical borehole logging and fluid logging were used in Leppävirta to compare the responses of different methods to fracturing and other geological features on the scale of a drilled well. Results from some of the geophysical measurements of boreholes were affected by the large diameter (gamma radiation) or uneven surface (caliper) of these structures. However, different anomalies indicating more fractured upper part of the bedrock traversed by well HN4 in Leppävirta suggest that several methods can be used for detecting fracturing. Fracture trends appear to align similarly on different scales in the zone of the Päijänne Tunnel. For example, similarities of patterns were found between the regional magnetic trends, correlating with orientations of topographic lineaments interpreted as expressions of fracture zones. The same structural orientations as those of the larger structures on local or regional scales were observed in the tunnel, even though a match could not be made in every case. The size and orientation of the observation space (patch of terrain at the surface, tunnel section, or borehole), the characterization method, with its typical sensitivity, and the characteristics of the location, influence the identification of the fracture pattern. Through due consideration of the influence of the sampling geometry and by utilizing complementary fracture characterization methods in tandem, some of the complexities of the relationship between fracturing and groundwater flow can be addressed. The flow connections demonstrated by the response of the groundwater level in monitoring wells to pressure decrease in the tunnel and the transport of MTBE through fractures in bedrock in Oitti, highlight the importance of protecting the tunnel water from a risk of contamination. In general, the largest values of drawdown occurred in monitoring wells closest to the tunnel and/or close to the topographically interpreted fracture zones. It seems that, to some degree, the rate of inflow shows a positive correlation with the level of reinforcement, as both are connected with the fracturing in the bedrock. The following geological features increased the vulnerability of tunnel sections to pollution, especially when several factors affected the same locations: (1) fractured bedrock, particularly with associated groundwater inflow; (2) thin or permeable overburden above fractured rock; (3) a hydraulically conductive layer underneath the surface soil; and (4) a relatively thin bedrock roof above the tunnel. The observed anisotropy of the geological media should ideally be taken into account in the assessment of vulnerability of tunnel sections and eventually for directing protective measures.

Meadow plant growth and competition under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide

The main aim of my thesis project was to assess the impact of elevated ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) on the growth, competition and community of meadow plants in northern Europe. The thesis project consisted of three separate O3 and CO2 exposure experiments that were conducted as open-top-chamber (OTC) studies at Jokioinen, SW Finland, and a smaller-scale experiment with different availabilities of resources in greenhouses in Helsinki. The OTC experiments included a competition experiment with two- and three-wise interactions, a mesocosm-scale meadow community with a large number of species, and a pot experiment that assessed intraspecific differences of Centaurea jacea ecotypes. The studied lowland hay meadow proved to be an O3-sensitive biotope, as the O3 concentrations used (40-50 ppb) were moderate, and yet, six out of nine species (Campanula rotundifolia, Centaurea jacea, Fragaria vesca, Ranunculus acris, Trifolium medium, Vicia cracca) showed either significant reductions in biomass or reproductive development, visible O3 injury or any two as a response to elevated O3. The plant species and ecotypes exhibited large intra- and interspecific variation in their response to O3, but O3 and CO2 concentrations did not cause changes in their interspecific competition or in community composition. However, the largest O3-induced growth reductions were seen in the least abundant species (C. rotundifolia and F. vesca), which may indicate O3-induced suppression of weak competitors. The overall effects of CO2 were relatively small and mainly restricted to individual species and several measured variables. Based on the present studies, most of the deleterious effects of tropospheric O3 are not diminished by a moderate increase in CO2 under low N availability, and variation exists between different species and variables. The present study indicates that the growth of several herb species decreases with increasing atmospheric O3 concentrations, and that these changes may pose a threat to the biodiversity of meadows. Ozone-induced reductions in the total community biomass production and N pool are likely to have important consequences for the nutrient cycling of the ecosystem.

A new Fuzzy-LOGIC based Model for Chlorophyll-a in Pulicat Lagoon, India

Coastal lagoons are complex ecosystems exhibiting a high degree of non-linearity in the distribution and exchange of nutrients dissolved in the water column due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. This factor has a direct influence on the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, an indicator of the primary productivity in the water bodies as lakes and lagoons. Moreover the seasonal variability in the characteristics of large-scale basins further contributes to the uncertainties in the data on the physico-chemical and biological characteristics of the lagoons. Considering the above, modelling the distributions of the nutrients with respect to the chlorophyll-concentrations, hence requires an effective approach which will appropriately account for the non-linearity of the ecosystem as well as the uncertainties in the available data. In the present investigation, fuzzy logic was used to develop a new model of the primary production for Pulicat lagoon, Southeast coast of India. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the concentrations of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon was highly influenced by the dissolved concentrations of nitrate, nitrites and phosphorous to different extents over different seasons and years. A high degree of agreement was obtained between the actual field values and those predicted by the new fuzzy model (d = 0.881 to 0.788) for the years 2005 and 2006, illustrating the efficiency of the model in predicting the values of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon.

Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat

Land use and land cover changes affect the partitioning of latent and sensible heat, which impacts the broader climate system. Increased latent heat flux to the atmosphere has a local cooling influence known as `evaporative cooling', but this energy will be released back to the atmosphere wherever the water condenses. However, the extent to which local evaporative cooling provides a global cooling influence has not been well characterized. Here, we perform a highly idealized set of climate model simulations aimed at understanding the effects that changes in the balance between surface sensible and latent heating have on the global climate system. We find that globally adding a uniform 1 W m(-2) source of latent heat flux along with a uniform 1 W m(-2) sink of sensible heat leads to a decrease in global mean surface air temperature of 0.54 +/- 0.04 K. This occurs largely as a consequence of planetary albedo increases associated with an increase in low elevation cloudiness caused by increased evaporation. Thus, our model results indicate that, on average, when latent heating replaces sensible heating, global, and not merely local, surface temperatures decrease.

Sensitivity of terrestrial water and energy budgets to CO(2)-physiological forcing: an investigation using an offline land model

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) influence climate by suppressing canopy transpiration in addition to its well- known greenhouse gas effect. The decrease in plant transpiration is due to changes in plant physiology (reduced opening of plant stomata). Here, we quantify such changes in water flux for various levels of CO(2) concentrations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Community Land Model. We find that photosynthesis saturates after 800 ppmv (parts per million, by volume) in this model. However, unlike photosynthesis, canopy transpiration continues to decline at about 5.1% per 100 ppmv increase in CO(2) levels. We also find that the associated reduction in latent heat flux is primarily compensated by increased sensible heat flux. The continued decline in canopy transpiration and subsequent increase in sensible heat flux at elevated CO(2) levels implies that incremental warming associated with the physiological effect of CO(2) will not abate at higher CO(2) concentrations, indicating important consequences for the global water and carbon cycles from anthropogenic CO(2) emissions.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

Comparative Studies on the Bioremediation of Hexavalent and Trivalent Chromium using Citrobacter freundii: Part I-Effect of parameters controlling Biosorption

The potential of Citrobacter freundii, a Gram negative bacteria for the remediation of hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) and trivalent chromium (Cr(III))) from aqueous solutions was investigated. Bioremediation of Cr(VI) involved both biosorption and bioreduction processes, as compared to only biosorption process observed with respect to Cr(III) bioremediation. In the case of Cr(VI) bioremediation studies, about 59 % biosorption was achieved at an equilibrium time of 2 h, initial Cr(VI) concentration of 4 mg/L, pH 1 and a biomass loading of 5x10(11) cells/mL. The remainder, 41 %, was found to be in the form of Cr(111) ions owing to bioreduction of Cr(VI) by the bacteria resulting in the absence of Cr(VI) ions in the residue, there by meeting the USEPA specifications. Similar studies were carried out using Cr(III) solution for an equilibrium time of 2 h, Cr(III) concentration of 4 mg/L, pH 3 and a biomass loading of 6.3x10(11) cells/mL., wherein a maximum biosorption of about 30 % was achieved.

Cytotoxicity of TiO2 nanoparticles towards freshwater sediment microorganisms at low exposure concentrations

There is a persistent need to assess the effects of TiO2 nanoparticles on the aquatic ecosystem owing to their increasing usage in consumer products and risk of environmental release. The current study is focused on TiO2 nanoparticle-induced acute toxicity at sub-ppm level (<= 1 ppm) on the three different freshwater sediment bacterial isolates and their consortium under two different irradiation (visible light and dark) conditions. The consortium of the bacterial isolates was found to be less affected by the exposure to the nanoparticles compared to the individual cells. The oxidative stress contributed considerably towards the cytotoxicity under both light and dark conditions. A statistically significant increase in membrane permeability was noted under the dark conditions as compared to the light conditions. The optical and fluorescence microscopic images showed aggregation and chain formation of the bacterial cells, when exposed to the nanoparticles. The electron microscopic (SEM, TEM) observations suggested considerable damage of cells and bio-uptake of nanoparticles. The exopolysaccrides (EPS) production and biofilm formation were noted to increase in the presence of the nanoparticles, and expression of the key genes involved in biofilm formation was studied by RT-PCR. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Impact of river runoff into the ocean on Indian summer monsoon

Rivers of the world discharge about 36000 km 3 of freshwater into the ocean every year. To investigate the impact of river discharge on climate, we have carried out two 100 year simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), one including the river runoff into the ocean and the other excluding it. When the river discharge is shut off, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rises by about 0.5 degrees C and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) increases by about 10% of the seasonal total with large increase in the eastern Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of India. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of La Nina-like cooling events in the equatorial Pacific increases and the correlation between ISMR and Pacific SST anomalies become stronger. The teleconnection between the SST anomalies in the Pacific and monsoon is effected via upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and the North African-Asian Jet axis.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.