Gas emissions on rice culture and its importance on air quality

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente Perfil Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

An intertemporal pricing model for CO2 allowances: The impact of the clean development mechanism

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The main leachate emissions of uncontrolled landfills

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Engenharia Sanitária

Enhancing and implementing a pairs trading strategy

This paper designs a pairs trading model with the intent to identify existing profitable market opportunities to invest, i.e. traditionally strong correlated stocks that have diverged from its historical norm. It comprises a broad literature review on this strategy whose relevant findings (strategy improvements) are contemplated in the model. The authors combine the statistical results of the model with a backtesting analysis in order to provide guidance on the best investment opportunities.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

How does household energy consumption contribute to PM10 emissions?

Particle Pollution (PM) is a major problem in urban environments. There is serious health risks associated with exposure to PM. In addition, particulate matter also contributes to greenhouse effects and global warming. PM originates mainly from fuel combustion. In this paper, we attempt to study household energy use contributions to experienced levels of PM concentrations. We find that there is a strong positive association between household gasoline consumption and urban air pollution. Residential natural gas use is also associated with poor air quality.

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Development of foam one-part geopolymers with enhanced thermal insulation performance and low carbon dioxide emissions

Buildings are responsible for more than 40% of the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, increasing building energy efficiency is one the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. The use of thermal insulation materials could constitute the most effective way of reducing heat losses in buildings by minimising heat energy needs. These materials have a thermal conductivity factor, k (W/m.K) lower than 0.065 while other insulation materials such as aerated concrete can go up to 0.11. Current insulation materials are associated with negative impacts in terms of toxicity. Polystyrene, for example contains anti-oxidant additives and ignition retardants. In addition, its production involves the generation of benzene and chlorofluorocarbons. Polyurethane is obtained from isocyanates, which are widely known for their tragic association with the Bhopal disaster. Besides current insulation materials releases toxic fumes when subjected to fire. This paper presents experimental results on one-part geopolymers. It also includes global warming potential assessment and cost analysis. The results show that only the use of aluminium powder allows the production mixtures with a high compressive strength however its high cost means they are commercially useless when facing the competition of commercial cellular concrete. The results also show that one-part geopolymer mixtures based on 26%OPC +58.3%FA +8%CS +7.7%CH and 3.5% hydrogen peroxide constitute a promising cost efficient (67 euro/m3), thermal insulation solution for floor heating systems with low global warming potential of 443 KgCO2eq/m3.

Assessing the production of jet mix columns using alkali activated waste based on mechanical and financial performance and CO2 (eq) emissions

Recent research has proved the potential of alkaline activated fly-ash for soil stabilisation. However, such studies have not focused on the link between financial, mechanical and environmental aspects of this solution, but only on their absolute mechanical properties. The present paper characterises the mechanical behaviour of a large spectrum of activator-ash-soil combinations used to build jet mixing columns, analysing also the cost and CO2 (eq) emissions. The concern with these two vectors forced a decrease in the quantity of stabilising agent added to the soil, relatively to previous research, and the effects of such low quantities have not yet been published. However, the results clearly showed a significant improve in strength, still well above the average values expected when improving the stressstrain behaviour of a weak soil. Uniaxial compressive strength tests were used to assess the effects of the fly-ash percentage, the alkalieash ratio and the water content. The carbon calculator recently developed by the European Federation of Foundation Contractors and the Deep Foundations Institute was used to quantify the CO2 (eq) emissions associated with this technique. The financial cost was estimated based on the experience of a major Portuguese contractor. For comparison purposes, soil cement mixtures were also analysed, using similar conditions and tools used for the soil-ash analysis. Results showed that the cement and ash solutions are very similar in terms of overall performance, with some advantage of the former regarding financial cost, and a significant advantage of the latter regarding the CO2 (eq) emissions. This new grout, although it is in an embryonic stage, it has the potential for broader developments in the field.

Cost optimal strategies for the renovation of residential neighbourhoods towards energy and emissions neutrality – Rainha Dona Leonor case study

Buildings are one of the major consumers of energy in Europe. This makes them an important target when aiming to reduce the energy consumptions and carbon emissions. The majority of the European building stock has already some decades and so it needs renovation in order to keep its functionality. Taking advantage of these interventions, the energy performance of the buildings may also be improved. In Portugal the renovation techniques, both regarding energy efficiency measures as well as measures for the use of renewable energy sources, are normally planned at the building scale. It is important to explore the possibility of having large scale interventions, has it has been done in other countries, namely at neighbourhood scale with district energy system in order to optimize the results in terms of costs and environmental impact.