Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of historic masonry buildings

Seismic risk evaluation of built-up areas involves analysis of the level of earthquake hazard of the region, building vulnerability and exposure. Within this approach that defines seismic risk, building vulnerability assessment assumes great importance, not only because of the obvious physical consequences in the eventual occurrence of a seismic event, but also because it is the one of the few potential aspects in which engineering research can intervene. In fact, rigorous vulnerability assessment of existing buildings and the implementation of appropriate retrofitting solutions can help to reduce the levels of physical damage, loss of life and the economic impact of future seismic events. Vulnerability studies of urban centresshould be developed with the aim of identifying building fragilities and reducing seismic risk. As part of the rehabilitation of the historic city centre of Coimbra, a complete identification and inspection survey of old masonry buildings has been carried out. The main purpose of this research is to discuss vulnerability assessment methodologies, particularly those of the first level, through the proposal and development of a method previously used to determine the level of vulnerability, in the assessment of physical damage and its relationship with seismic intensity.

Development of open models and tools for seismic risk assessment: application to Portugal

The exponential growth of the world population has led to an increase of settlements often located in areas prone to natural disasters, including earthquakes. Consequently, despite the important advances in the field of natural catastrophes modelling and risk mitigation actions, the overall human losses have continued to increase and unprecedented economic losses have been registered. In the research work presented herein, various areas of earthquake engineering and seismology are thoroughly investigated, and a case study application for mainland Portugal is performed. Seismic risk assessment is a critical link in the reduction of casualties and damages due to earthquakes. Recognition of this relation has led to a rapid rise in demand for accurate, reliable and flexible numerical tools and software. In the present work, an open-source platform for seismic hazard and risk assessment is developed. This software is capable of computing the distribution of losses or damage for an earthquake scenario (deterministic event-based) or earthquake losses due to all the possible seismic events that might occur within a region for a given interval of time (probabilistic event-based). This effort has been developed following an open and transparent philosophy and therefore, it is available to any individual or institution. The estimation of the seismic risk depends mainly on three components: seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The latter component assumes special importance, as by intervening with appropriate retrofitting solutions, it may be possible to decrease directly the seismic risk. The employment of analytical methodologies is fundamental in the assessment of structural vulnerability, particularly in regions where post-earthquake building damage might not be available. Several common methodologies are investigated, and conclusions are yielded regarding the method that can provide an optimal balance between accuracy and computational effort. In addition, a simplified approach based on the displacement-based earthquake loss assessment (DBELA) is proposed, which allows for the rapid estimation of fragility curves, considering a wide spectrum of uncertainties. A novel vulnerability model for the reinforced concrete building stock in Portugal is proposed in this work, using statistical information collected from hundreds of real buildings. An analytical approach based on nonlinear time history analysis is adopted and the impact of a set of key parameters investigated, including the damage state criteria and the chosen intensity measure type. A comprehensive review of previous studies that contributed to the understanding of the seismic hazard and risk for Portugal is presented. An existing seismic source model was employed with recently proposed attenuation models to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard throughout the territory. The latter results are combined with information from the 2011 Building Census and the aforementioned vulnerability model to estimate economic loss maps for a return period of 475 years. These losses are disaggregated across the different building typologies and conclusions are yielded regarding the type of construction more vulnerable to seismic activity.

Ecological quality assessment in transitional systems

Estuaries are poles of attraction for human settlement which is a source of pressures to surface water bodies. The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WDF, 2000/60/EC) has increased the investigation in order to develop methodologies to assess the Ecological Quality Status (EQS) of aquatic ecosystems. Transitional systems are naturally stressed and characterized by highly dynamic physical, chemical and hydro-morphologic conditions and by species with a higher level of tolerance to change, being more difficult to develop suitable quality indicators for these systems. The general purpose of this study is to test the ability of synthesis descriptors, including primary (S, taxa richness) and derived biological variable (H’, Shannon-Wiener diversity), biotic indices (AMBI and M-AMBI), body size properties (abundance distribution by body size classes, length, weight and length-weight relationships) and non-taxonomic indices (ISS), as well as functional indicators related to the decomposition rates of various experimental substrates, a macrophyte (Phragmites australis) and an alga (Fucus vesiculosus), to evaluate the environmental quality in transitional systems. This study was carried out in one of the most pristine channels of the Ria the Aveiro, Mira Channel, along a full salinity gradient and in a metals and metalloid sediment contamination area, the Estarreja Channel, and two reference channels (Canelas and Salreu). In this study were used different sampling techniques, the leaf-bag technique and a hand-held corer. In Mira Channel, the alga and the macrophyte presented an opposite trend in the decomposition rate along the salinity gradient, with the decomposition rates of the alga always higher than those of the macrophyte. The decomposition rates of the macrophyte and the alga were higher in the mid estuary and in higher salinity areas, respectively, corresponding to the preferencial distribution areas of each species. The macrobenthic fauna associated with the decaying and an artificial substrate (control) showed equally well the benthic succession from the marine to the freshwater areas and, despite the strong differences in the decay rates, no significant differences were found between the benthic communities associated with the alga and the macrophyte. The body size properties of the macrobenthic fauna associated with the P. australis leaf-bag (1mm and 5mm) and corer samples were studied along the full salinity gradient. The dominant species of the sub-set of measured specimens were not the same of the original macrobenthic fauna sampled but, despite that, the sub-set of measured specimens was also able to show the benthic succession from the marine to the freshwater areas. The body size abundance distribution of the benthic macroinvertebrates according to the ISS size classes did not show a particular trend in any sampler along the salinity gradient. Significant differences were found in the length, weight and length-weight relationships of Annelids, , Molluscs and even some species along the salinity gradient. No significant differences were found in the AMBI, M-AMBI and ISS values along the salinity gradient for all the samplers. The EQS of the corer samples obtained using the M-AMBI was lower than that of the leaf-bags. The EQS obtained with the ISS was higher than that obtained with the M-AMBI in the leaf-bags but not in the corer samples. The ecological effects of contaminated sediments associated with the industrial chemical effluents discharged in the Estarreja Channel were studied a decade after ceasing the emissions, using the Sediment Quality Triad approach and two reference channels. The results showed that despite the emissions ceased in 2004, the sediment remains polluted with high levels of metals and metalloid, available to bioaccumulation and with severe consequences at the community level. The sediment contamination problem was also studied using the leaf-bag technique with a macrophyte, an alga and a control substrate. The results showed that the decay rates, the associated macrofauna and the application of the AMBI, M-AMBI and ISS indices to the mesh-bag samples were not able to identify the sediment contamination. Contrarily to the AMBI, the M-AMBI and the ISS showed significant differences between the contaminated and the reference channels for the corer samples. Although such statistical significance, the interest of using these complex biotic indices could be questioned, when much simple ones, like the S and H’ allow to reach the same conclusions.

Population dynamics and fisheries assessment of the bigeye thresher (Alopias superciliosus) in the Atlantic: a comparison between North Atlantic and South Atlantic stocks

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Biologia Pesqueira), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

A Benefit-Risk Assessment Framework for Development of Clinical Guidelines in Diagnostic Radiology

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12

Autonomous bathymetry for risk assessment with ROAZ robotic surface vehicle

The use of unmanned marine robotic vehicles in bathymetric surveys is discussed. This paper presents recent results in autonomous bathymetric missions with the ROAZ autonomous surface vehicle. In particular, robotic surface vehicles such as ROAZ provide an efficient tool in risk assessment for shallow water environments and water land interface zones as the near surf zone in marine coast. ROAZ is an ocean capable catamaran for distinct oceanographic missions, and with the goal to fill the gap were other hydrographic surveys vehicles/systems are not compiled to operate, like very shallow water rivers and marine coastline surf zones. Therefore, the use of robotic systems for risk assessment is validated through several missions performed either in river scenario (in a very shallow water conditions) and in marine coastlines.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2008 Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to January 2009), and EMBASE (1980 to January 2009). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included eleven trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that CO measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other seven trials. One trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62). One trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77; 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers. Five trials failed to detect evidence of a significant effect. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO + genetic susceptibility as two different intervention; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. Three others used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings, and one tested for a genetic marker. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analysis.

Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

Evaluation of organ-specific peripheral doses after 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer based on Monte Carlo and convolution/superposition algorithms: implications for secondary cancer risk assessment.

To make a comprehensive evaluation of organ-specific out-of-field doses using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for different breast cancer irradiation techniques and to compare results with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS). Three breast radiotherapy techniques using 6MV tangential photon beams were compared: (a) 2DRT (open rectangular fields), (b) 3DCRT (conformal wedged fields), and (c) hybrid IMRT (open conformal+modulated fields). Over 35 organs were contoured in a whole-body CT scan and organ-specific dose distributions were determined with MC and the TPS. Large differences in out-of-field doses were observed between MC and TPS calculations, even for organs close to the target volume such as the heart, the lungs and the contralateral breast (up to 70% difference). MC simulations showed that a large fraction of the out-of-field dose comes from the out-of-field head scatter fluence (>40%) which is not adequately modeled by the TPS. Based on MC simulations, the 3DCRT technique using external wedges yielded significantly higher doses (up to a factor 4-5 in the pelvis) than the 2DRT and the hybrid IMRT techniques which yielded similar out-of-field doses. In sharp contrast to popular belief, the IMRT technique investigated here does not increase the out-of-field dose compared to conventional techniques and may offer the most optimal plan. The 3DCRT technique with external wedges yields the largest out-of-field doses. For accurate out-of-field dose assessment, a commercial TPS should not be used, even for organs near the target volume (contralateral breast, lungs, heart).

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. We reviewed systematically data on smoking cessation rates from controlled trials that used biomedical risk assessment and feedback. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched he Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (1966 to 2004), and EMBASE (1980 to 2004). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. MAIN RESULTS: From 4049 retrieved references, we selected 170 for full text assessment. We retained eight trials for data extraction and analysis. One of the eight used CO alone and CO + Genetic Susceptibility as two different intervention groups, giving rise to three possible comparisons. Three of the trials isolated the effect of exhaled CO on smoking cessation rates resulting in the following odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.73 (0.38 to 1.39), 0.93 (0.62 to 1.41), and 1.18 (0.84 to 1.64). Combining CO measurement with genetic susceptibility gave an OR of 0.58 (0.29 to 1.19). Exhaled CO measurement and spirometry were used together in three trials, resulting in the following ORs (95% CI): 0.6 (0.25 to 1.46), 2.45 (0.73 to 8.25), and 3.50 (0.88 to 13.92). Spirometry results alone were used in one other trial with an OR of 1.21 (0.60 to 2.42).Two trials used other motivational feedback measures, with an OR of 0.80 (0.39 to 1.65) for genetic susceptibility to lung cancer alone, and 3.15 (1.06 to 9.31) for ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries performed in light smokers (average 10 to 12 cigarettes a day). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Due to the scarcity of evidence of sufficient quality, we can make no definitive statements about the effectiveness of biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation. Current evidence of lower quality does not however support the hypothesis that biomedical risk assessment increases smoking cessation in comparison with standard treatment. Only two studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow pooling of data and meta-analysis.

Risk Assessment of Rooftop- Collected Rainwater for Individual Household and Community Use in Central Kerala, India

Water quality of rooftop-collected rainwater is an issue of increased interest particularly in developing countries where the collected water is used as a source of drinking water. Bacteriological and chemical parameters of 25 samples of rooftop-harvested rainwater stored in ferrocement tanks were analyzed in the study described in this article. Except for the pH and lower dissolved oxygen levels, all other physicochemical parameters were within World Health Organization guidelines. Bacteriological results revealed that the rooftop-harvested rainwater stored in tanks does not often meet the bacteriological quality standards prescribed for drinking water. Fifty percent of samples of harvested rainwater for rural and urban community use and 20% of the samples for individual household use showed the presence of E. coli. Fecal coliform/fecal streptococci ratios revealed nonhuman animal sources of fecal pollution. Risk assessment of bacterial isolates from the harvested rainwater showed high resistance to ampicillin, erythromycin, penicillin, and vancomycin. Multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) indexing of the isolates and elucidation of the resistance patterns revealed that 73% of the isolates exhibited MAR

Animal Biosafety Risk Assessment and Management Training Video

This training video is intended to familiarise researchers and technicians working in animal containment facilities with appropriate risk assessment and risk management systems. It is in Windows Media Video format which will require a free media player such as Windows Media Player or VLC Media Player (http://www.videolan.org/vlc/) to watch.

Risk Assessment for blackboard 2011

This resource is for Health Scientists

Envisioning (starting the project)2: User Stories, Sprint Planning, Risk Assessment

Second in a two part set of lectures on Agile Envisioning. The lectures describe the process of starting up a project. 1) creating a shared understanding amongst the team and customers using Stakeholder Analysis, Personas and User stories 2) Sprint planning and using a burndown chart 3) Risk assessment