The relationship between parents’ self-efficacy beliefs, outcome expectations, child behaviour, and management of atopic dermatitis

Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin condition, characterized by intense pruritis, with a complex aetiology comprising multiple genetic and environmental factors. It is a common chronic health problem among children, and along with other allergic conditions, is increasing in prevalence within Australia and in many countries worldwide. Successful management of childhood AD poses a significant and ongoing challenge to parents of affected children. Episodic and unpredictable, AD can have profound effects on children’s physical and psychosocial wellbeing and quality of life, and that of their caregivers and families. Where concurrent child behavioural problems and parenting difficulties exist, parents may have particular difficulty achieving adequate and consistent performance of the routine management tasks that promote the child’s health and wellbeing. Despite frequent reports of behaviour problems in children with AD, past research has neglected the importance of child behaviour to parenting confidence and competence with treatment. Parents of children with AD are also at risk of experiencing depression, anxiety, parenting stress, and parenting difficulties. Although these factors have been associated with difficulty in managing other childhood chronic health conditions, the nature of these relationships in the context of child AD management has not been reported. This study therefore examined relationships between child, parent, and family variables, and parents’ management of child AD and difficult child behaviour, using social cognitive and self-efficacy theory as a guiding framework. The study was conducted in three phases. It employed a quantitative, cross-sectional study design, accessing a community sample of 120 parents of children with AD, and a sample of 64 child-parent dyads recruited from a metropolitan paediatric tertiary referral centre. In Phase One, instruments designed to measure parents’ self-reported performance of AD management tasks (Parents’ Eczema Management Scale – PEMS) and parents’ outcome expectations of task performance (Parents’ Outcome Expectations of Eczema Management Scale – POEEMS) were adapted from the Parental Self-Efficacy with Eczema Care Index (PASECI). In Phase Two, these instruments were used to examine relationships between child, parent, and family variables, and parents’ self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported performance of AD management tasks. Relationships between child, parent, and family variables, parents’ self-efficacy for managing problem behaviours, and reported parenting practices, were also examined. This latter focus was explored further in Phase Three, in which relationships between observed child and parent behaviour, and parent-reported self-efficacy for managing both child AD and problem behaviours, were explored. Phase One demonstrated the reliability of both PEMS and POEEMS, and confirmed that PASECI was reliable and valid with modification as detailed. Factor analyses revealed two-factor structures for PEMS and PASECI alike, with both scales containing factors related to performing routine management tasks, and managing the child’s symptoms and behaviour. Factor analysis was also applied to POEEMS resulting in a three-factor structure. Factors relating to independent management of AD by the parent, involving healthcare professionals in management, and involving the child in management of AD were found. Parents’ self-efficacy and outcome expectations had a significant influence on self-reported task performance. In Phase Two, relationships emerged between parents’ self-efficacy and self-reported performance of AD management tasks, and AD severity, child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, conflict over parenting issues, and parents’ relationship satisfaction. Using multiple linear regressions, significant proportions of variation in parents’ self-efficacy and self-reported performance of AD management tasks were explained by child behaviour difficulties and parents’ formal education, and self-efficacy emerged as a likely mediator for the relationships between both child behaviour and parents’ education, and performance of AD management tasks. Relationships were also found between parents’ self-efficacy for managing difficult child behaviour and use of dysfunctional parenting strategies, and child behaviour difficulties, parents’ depression and stress, conflict over parenting issues, and relationship satisfaction. While significant proportions of variation in self-efficacy for managing child behaviour were explained by both child behaviour and family income, family income was the only variable to explain a significant proportion of variation in parent-reported use of dysfunctional parenting strategies. Greater use of dysfunctional parenting strategies (both lax and authoritarian parenting) was associated with more severe AD. Parents reporting lower self-efficacy for managing AD also reported lower self-efficacy for managing difficult child behaviour; likewise, less successful self-reported performance of AD management tasks was associated with greater use of dysfunctional parenting strategies. When child and parent behaviour was directly observed in Phase Three, more aversive child behaviour was associated with lower self-efficacy, less positive outcome expectations, and poorer self-reported performance of AD management tasks by parents. Importantly, there were strong positive relationships between these variables (self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance) and parents’ observed competence when providing treatment to their child. Less competent performance was also associated with greater parent-reported child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship dissatisfaction. Overall, this study revealed the importance of child behaviour to parents’ confidence and practices in the contexts of child AD and child behaviour management. Parents of children with concurrent AD and behavioural problems are at particular risk of having low self-efficacy for managing their child’s AD and difficult behaviour. Children with more severe AD are also at higher risk of behaviour problems, and thus represent a high-risk group of children whose parents may struggle to manage the disease successfully. As one of the first studies to examine the role and correlates of parents’ self-efficacy in child AD management, this study identified a number of potentially modifiable factors that can be targeted to enhance parents’ self-efficacy, and improve parent management of child AD. In particular, interventions should focus on child behaviour and parenting issues to support parents caring for children with AD and improve child health outcomes. In future, findings from this research will assist healthcare teams to identify parents most in need of support and intervention, and inform the development and testing of targeted multidisciplinary strategies to support parents caring for children with AD.

The 'obesity paradox' in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Poor nutritional status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality independently of disease-severity (Collins et al).1 Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective role of obesity against mortality in COPD (Vestbo et al)2 which is contrary to data from the general population where obesity is associated with decreased life expectancy. This relationship has been referred to as the ‘obesity paradox’ and has been demonstrated in a number of chronic wasting conditions (Kalantar-Zadeh et al).3 This study investigated the existence of the obesity paradox in outpatients with COPD by examining the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year healthcare use and clinical outcome in terms of hospital admission rates, length of hospital stay, outpatient appointments and mortality. BMI was assessed in 424 outpatients with COPD, with measurements performed by specialist respiratory nurses during outpatient clinics. 1-year healthcare use was retrospectively collected from the date of BMI measurement. Abstract S163 Table 1 Patients classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (>30 kg/m2) experienced significantly fewer emergency hospital admissions, as well as a reduced length of hospital stay, in comparison to normal weight (20.0–24.9 kg/m2) or underweight (<20 kg/m2) outpatients. There was a significant negative trend between BMI classification and mortality. This study supports the existence of the ‘obesity paradox’ in COPD, not only in relation to reduced 1 year mortality rates but also in terms of reduced emergency hospital admissions and reduced length of hospital stay.

FGFR2 point mutations in 466 Endometrioid Endometrial Tumors : relationship with MSI, KRAS, PIK3CA, CTNNB1 mutations and Clinicopathological features

Mutations in multiple oncogenes including KRAS, CTNNB1, PIK3CA and FGFR2 have been identified in endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to provide insight into the clinicopathological features associated with patterns of mutation in these genes, a necessary step in planning targeted therapies for endometrial cancer. 466 endometrioid endometrial tumors were tested for mutations in FGFR2, KRAS, CTNNB1, and PIK3CA. The relationships between mutation status, tumor microsatellite instability (MSI) and clinicopathological features including overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Mutations were identified in FGFR2 (48/466); KRAS (87/464); CTNNB1 (88/454) and PIK3CA (104/464). KRAS and FGFR2 mutations were significantly more common, and CTNNB1 mutations less common, in MSI positive tumors. KRAS and FGFR2 occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.05) and, surprisingly, mutations in KRAS and CTNNB1 also occurred in a near mutually exclusive pattern (p = 0.0002). Multivariate analysis revealed that mutation in KRAS and FGFR2 showed a trend (p = 0.06) towards longer and shorter DFS, respectively. In the 386 patients with early stage disease (stage I and II), FGFR2 mutation was significantly associated with shorter DFS (HR = 3.24; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.35-7.77; p = 0.008) and OS (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.65; p = 0.025) and KRAS was associated with longer DFS (HR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.05-0.97; p = 0.045). In conclusion, although KRAS and FGFR2 mutations share similar activation of the MAPK pathway, our data suggest very different roles in tumor biology. This has implications for the implementation of anti-FGFR or anti-MEK biologic therapies.

Deprivation is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation is linked to increased incidence in a number of chronic diseases but its relationship to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is uncertain despite suggestions that the socioeconomic gradient seen in COPD is as great, if not greater, than any other disease (Prescott and Vestbo).1 There is also a need to take into account the confounding effects of malnutrition which have been shown to be independently linked to increased mortality (Collins et al).2 The current study investigated the influence of social deprivation on 1-year survival rates in COPD outpatients, independently of malnutrition. 424 outpatients with COPD were routinely screened for malnutrition risk using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’; ‘MUST’ (Elia),3 between July and May 2009; 222 males and 202 females; mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2. Each individual's deprivation was calculated using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) which was established according to the geographical location of each patient's address (postcode). IMD includes a number of indicators covering economic, housing and social issues (eg, health, education and employment) into a single deprivation score (Nobel et al).4 The lower the IMD score, the lower an individual's deprivation. The IMD was assigned to each outpatient at the time of screening and related to1-year mortality from the date screened. Outpatients who died within 1-year of screening were significantly more likely to reside within a deprived postcode (IMD 19.7±SD 13.1 vs 15.4±SD 10.7; p=0.023, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) than those that did not die. Deprivation remained a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality even when adjusted for malnutrition as well as age, gender and disease severity (binary logistic regression; p=0.008, OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07). Deprivation was not associated with disease-severity (p=0.906) or body mass index, kg/m2 (p=0.921) using ANOVA. This is the first study to show that deprivation, assessed using IMD, is associated with increased 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD independently of malnutrition, age and disease severity. Deprivation should be considered in the targeted management of these patients.

The influence of deprivation domains on malnutrition risk in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation assessed using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) has been shown to be an independent risk factor for both malnutrition and mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (Collins et al., 2010a, b). IMD consists of a range of different deprivation domains, although it is unclear which ones are most closely linked to malnutrition. The aim of the current study was to investigate whether the relationship between malnutrition and deprivation was a general one, affecting all domains in a consistent manner, or specific, affecting only certain domains.

The Impact of gender identity-conscious HR structures on performance : mediating effects of gender diversity

Gender identity-conscious HR structures signal an organization’s perspective on gender diversity. The signal produces perceptions that the organization values gender diversity leading to a gender diverse workforce. In turn, a gender diverse workforce provides a firm with a competitive advantage which should result in higher performance. This paper tests the mediating effects of gender diversity (at non-management and management levels) in the relationship between gender identity-conscious HR structures and performance. The findings indicate that non-management gender diversity partially mediates the relationship between HR structures and productivity, and management gender diversity partially mediates the relationship between HR structures and perceived market performance.

Novel molecular markers of Chlamydia pecorum genetic diversity in the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Background Chlamydia pecorum is an obligate intracellular bacterium and the causative agent of reproductive and ocular disease in several animal hosts including koalas, sheep, cattle and goats. C. pecorum strains detected in koalas are genetically diverse, raising interesting questions about the origin and transmission of this species within koala hosts. While the ompA gene remains the most widely-used target in C. pecorum typing studies, it is generally recognised that surface protein encoding genes are not suited for phylogenetic analysis and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the ompA gene locus is not congruent with the phylogeny of the C. pecorum genome. Using the recently sequenced C. pecorum genome sequence (E58), we analysed 10 genes, including ompA, to evaluate the use of ompA as a molecular marker in the study of koala C. pecorum genetic diversity. Results Three genes (incA, ORF663, tarP) were found to contain sufficient nucleotide diversity and discriminatory power for detailed analysis and were used, with ompA, to genotype 24 C. pecorum PCR-positive koala samples from four populations. The most robust representation of the phylogeny of these samples was achieved through concatenation of all four gene sequences, enabling the recreation of a "true" phylogenetic signal. OmpA and incA were of limited value as fine-detailed genetic markers as they were unable to confer accurate phylogenetic distinctions between samples. On the other hand, the tarP and ORF663 genes were identified as useful "neutral" and "contingency" markers respectively, to represent the broad evolutionary history and intra-species genetic diversity of koala C. pecorum. Furthermore, the concatenation of ompA, incA and ORF663 sequences highlighted the monophyletic nature of koala C. pecorum infections by demonstrating a single evolutionary trajectory for koala hosts that is distinct from that seen in non-koala hosts. Conclusions While the continued use of ompA as a fine-detailed molecular marker for epidemiological analysis appears justified, the tarP and ORF663 genes also appear to be valuable markers of phylogenetic or biogeographic divisions at the C. pecorum intra-species level. This research has significant implications for future typing studies to understand the phylogeny, genetic diversity, and epidemiology of C. pecorum infections in the koala and other animal species.

Molecular characterisation of environmental enterococci derived from water samples and assessment of associated public health hazards

Enterococci are versatile Gram-positive bacteria that can survive under extreme conditions. Most enterococci are non-virulent and found in the gastrointestinal tract of humans and animals. Other strains are opportunistic pathogens that contribute to a large number of nosocomial infections globally. Epidemiological studies demonstrated a direct relationship between the density of enterococci in surface waters and the risk of swimmer-associated gastroenteritis. The distribution of infectious enterococcal strains from the hospital environment or other sources to environmental water bodies through sewage discharge or other means, could increase the prevalence of these strains in the human population. Environmental water quality studies may benefit from focusing on a subset of Enterococcus spp. that are consistently associated with sources of faecal pollution such as domestic sewage, rather than testing for the entire genus. E. faecalis and E. faecium are potentially good focal species for such studies, as they have been consistently identified as the dominant Enterococcus spp. in human faeces and sewage. On the other hand enterococcal infections are predominantly caused by E. faecalis and E. faecium. The characterisation of E. faecalis and E. faecium is important in studying their population structures, particularly in environmental samples. In developing and implementing rapid, robust molecular genotyping techniques, it is possible to more accurately establish the relationship between human and environmental enterococci. Of particular importance, is to determine the distribution of high risk enterococcal clonal complexes, such as E. faecium clonal complex 17 and E. faecalis clonal complexes 2 and 9 in recreational waters. These clonal complexes are recognized as particularly pathogenic enterococcal genotypes that cause severe disease in humans globally. The Pimpama-Coomera watershed is located in South East Queensland, Australia and was investigated in this study mainly because it is used intensively for agriculture and recreational purposes and has a strong anthropogenic impact. The primary aim of this study was to develop novel, universally applicable, robust, rapid and cost effective genotyping methods which are likely to yield more definitive results for the routine monitoring of E. faecalis and E. faecium, particularly in environmental water sources. To fullfill this aim, new genotyping methods were developed based on the interrogation of highly informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in housekeeping genes of both E. faecalis and E. faecium. SNP genotyping was successfully applied in field investigations of the Coomera watershed, South-East Queensland, Australia. E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates were grouped into 29 and 23 SNP profiles respectively. This study showed the high longitudinal diversity of E. faecalis and E. faecium over a period of two years, and both human-related and human-specific SNP profiles were identified. Furthermore, 4.25% of E. faecium strains isolated from water was found to correspond to the important clonal complex-17 (CC17). Strains that belong to CC17 cause the majority of hospital outbreaks and clinical infections globally. Of the six sampling sites of the Coomera River, Paradise Point had the highest number of human-related and human-specific E. faecalis and E. faecium SNP profiles. The secondary aim of this study was to determine the antibiotic-resistance profiles and virulence traits associated with environmental E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates compared to human pathogenic E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates. This was performed to predict the potential health risks associated with coming into contact with these strains in the Coomera watershed. In general, clinical isolates were found to be more resistant to all the antibiotics tested compared to water isolates and they harbored more virulence traits. Multi-drug resistance was more prevalent in clinical isolates (71.18% of E. faecalis and 70.3 % of E. faecium) compared to water isolates (only 5.66 % E. faecium). However, tetracycline, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin and ampicillin resistance was observed in water isolates. The virulence gene esp was the most prevalent virulence determinant observed in clinical isolates (67.79% of E. faecalis and 70.37 % of E. faecium), and this gene has been described as a human-specific marker used for microbial source tracking (MST). The presence of esp in water isolates (16.36% of E. faecalis and 19.14% of E. faecium) could be indicative of human faecal contamination in these waterways. Finally, in order to compare overall gene expression between environmental and clinical strains of E. faecalis, a comparative gene hybridization study was performed. The results of this investigation clearly demonstrated the up-regulation of genes associated with pathogenicity in E. faecalis isolated from water. The expression study was performed at physiological temperatures relative to ambient temperatures. The up-regulation of virulence genes demonstrates that environmental strains of E. faecalis can pose an increased health risk which can lead to serious disease, particularly if these strains belong to the virulent CC17 group. The genotyping techniques developed in this study not only provide a rapid, robust and highly discriminatory tool to characterize E. faecalis and E. faecium, but also enables the efficient identification of virulent enterococci that are distributed in environmental water sources.

Defining food literacy, its components, development and relationship to food intake : A case study of young people and disadvantage

This report documents the results of a qualitative study of young people experiencing disadvantage who are responsible for feeding themselves. The purpose of the study was to explore the knowledge, skills and behaviours they use in their day to day eating. The results of this study were considered alongside those of an earlier study of Australian food experts in order to develop a definition of food literacy, identify its components and propose a model for its relationship with diet quality and chronic disease. This young people's study also examined how young people's relationship with food developed and its relationship with the social determinants of health. This report will help practitioners working in food literacy better target their practice and investment.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

β-glucan triggers spondylarthritis and Crohn's disease-like ileitis in SKG mice

Objective The spondylarthritides (SpA), including ankylosing spondylitis (AS), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), reactive arthritis, and arthritis associated with inflammatory bowel disease, cause chronic inflammation of the large peripheral and axial joints, eyes, skin, ileum, and colon. Genetic studies reveal common candidate genes for AS, PsA, and Crohn's disease, including IL23R, IL12B, STAT3, and CARD9, all of which are associated with interleukin-23 (IL-23) signaling downstream of the dectin 1 β-glucan receptor. In autoimmune-prone SKG mice with mutated ZAP-70, which attenuates T cell receptor signaling and increases the autoreactivity of T cells in the peripheral repertoire, IL-17–dependent inflammatory arthritis developed after dectin 1–mediated fungal infection. This study was undertaken to determine whether SKG mice injected with 1,3-β-glucan (curdlan) develop evidence of SpA, and the relationship of innate and adaptive autoimmunity to this process. Methods SKG mice and control BALB/c mice were injected once with curdlan or mannan. Arthritis was scored weekly, and organs were assessed for pathologic features. Anti–IL-23 monoclonal antibodies were injected into curdlan-treated SKG mice. CD4+ T cells were transferred from curdlan-treated mice to SCID mice, and sera were analyzed for autoantibodies. Results After systemic injection of curdlan, SKG mice developed enthesitis, wrist, ankle, and sacroiliac joint arthritis, dactylitis, plantar fasciitis, vertebral inflammation, ileitis resembling Crohn's disease, and unilateral uveitis. Mannan triggered spondylitis and arthritis. Arthritis and spondylitis were T cell– and IL-23–dependent and were transferable to SCID recipients with CD4+ T cells. SpA was associated with collagen- and proteoglycan-specific autoantibodies. Conclusion Our findings indicate that the SKG ZAP-70W163C mutation predisposes BALB/c mice to SpA, resulting from innate and adaptive autoimmunity, after systemic β-glucan or mannan exposure.

Whole-body substrate metabolism is associated with disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Objectives In non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), hepatic steatosis is intricately linked with a number of metabolic alterations. We studied substrate utilisation in NAFLD during basal, insulin-stimulated and exercise conditions, and correlated these outcomes with disease severity. Methods 20 patients with NAFLD (mean±SD body mass index (BMI) 34.1±6.7 kg/m2) and 15 healthy controls (BMI 23.4±2.7 kg/m2) were assessed. Respiratory quotient (RQ), whole-body fat (Fatox) and carbohydrate (CHOox) oxidation rates were determined by indirect calorimetry in three conditions: basal (resting and fasted), insulin-stimulated (hyperinsulinaemic–euglycaemic clamp) and exercise (cycling at an intensity to elicit maximal Fatox). Severity of disease and steatosis were determined by liver histology, hepatic Fatox from plasma β-hydroxybutyrate concentrations, aerobic fitness expressed as , and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) measured by computed tomography. Results Within the overweight/obese NAFLD cohort, basal RQ correlated positively with steatosis (r=0.57, p=0.01) and was higher (indicating smaller contribution of Fatox to energy expenditure) in patients with NAFLD activity score (NAS) ≥5 vs <5 (p=0.008). Both results were independent of VAT, % body fat and BMI. Compared with the lean control group, patients with NAFLD had lower basal whole-body Fatox (1.2±0.3 vs 1.5±0.4 mg/kgFFM/min, p=0.024) and lower basal hepatic Fatox (ie, β-hydroxybutyrate, p=0.004). During exercise, they achieved lower maximal Fatox (2.5±1.4 vs. 5.8±3.7 mg/kgFFM/min, p=0.002) and lower (p<0.001) than controls. Fatox during exercise was not associated with disease severity (p=0.79). Conclusions Overweight/obese patients with NAFLD had reduced hepatic Fatox and reduced whole-body Fatox under basal and exercise conditions. There was an inverse relationship between ability to oxidise fat in basal conditions and histological features of NAFLD including severity of steatosis and NAS

Evidence of unique genotypes of Beak and feather disease virus in Southern Africa

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD), caused by Beak and feather disease virus (BFDV), is the most significant infectious disease in psittacines. PBFD is thought to have originated in Australia but is now found worldwide; in Africa, it threatens the survival of the indigenous endangered Cape parrot and the vulnerable black-cheeked lovebird. We investigated the genetic diversity of putative BFDVs from southern Africa. Feathers and heparinized blood samples were collected from 27 birds representing 9 psittacine species, all showing clinical signs of PBFD. DNA extracted from these samples was used for PCR amplification of the putative BFDV coat protein (CP) gene. The nucleotide sequences of the CP genes of 19 unique BFDV isolates were determined and compared with the 24 previously described sequences of BFDV isolates from Australasia and America. Phylogenetic analysis revealed eight BFDV lineages, with the southern African isolates representing at least three distinctly unique genotypes; 10 complete genome sequences were determined, representing at least one of every distinct lineage. The nucleotide diversity of the southern African isolates was calculated to be 6.4% and is comparable to that found in Australia and New Zealand. BFDVs in southern Africa have, however, diverged substantially from viruses found in other parts of the world, as the average distance between the southern African isolates and BFDV isolates from Australia ranged from 8.3 to 10.8%. In addition to point mutations, recombination was found to contribute substantially to the level of genetic variation among BFDVs, with evidence of recombination in all but one of the genomes analyzed.

Comparative analysis of panicum streak virus and maize streak virus diversity, recombination patterns and phylogeography

Background: Panicum streak virus (PanSV; Family Geminiviridae; Genus Mastrevirus) is a close relative of Maize streak virus (MSV), the most serious viral threat to maize production in Africa. PanSV and MSV have the same leafhopper vector species, largely overlapping natural host ranges and similar geographical distributions across Africa and its associated Indian Ocean Islands. Unlike MSV, however, PanSV has no known economic relevance. Results: Here we report on 16 new PanSV full genome sequences sampled throughout Africa and use these together with others in public databases to reveal that PanSV and MSV populations in general share very similar patterns of genetic exchange and geographically structured diversity. A potentially important difference between the species, however, is that the movement of MSV strains throughout Africa is apparently less constrained than that of PanSV strains. Interestingly the MSV-A strain which causes maize streak disease is apparently the most mobile of all the PanSV and MSV strains investigated. Conclusion: We therefore hypothesize that the generally increased mobility of MSV relative to other closely related species such as PanSV, may have been an important evolutionary step in the eventual emergence of MSV-A as a serious agricultural pathogen. The GenBank accession numbers for the sequences reported in this paper are GQ415386-GQ415401. © 2009 Varsani et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.