Three Essays on the Economics of International Migration [electronic resource].

requirements for Filipino performing artists, effectively closing this migration channel. I employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy using the share of performing artists at baseline in each Philippine province as a continuous policy variable. International migration falls in response to the policy change by 1.2%. The effect on international migration is larger than the policy change itself would suggest, indicating the importance of spillovers across migrant occupations. Domestically, more children are employed, and adults are more likely to be unemployed or engaged in short-term work.

Essays on Environmental and Health Economics

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Employment effects of privatisation and foreign acquisition of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This paper investigates the effects of domestic privatisation or foreign acquisition of Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) on employment growth, using firm level data for China and a combination of propensity score matching and difference-in-differences in order to identify the causal effect. Our results suggest that, controlling for output growth there is some evidence that domestic privatisation leads to contemporaneous reductions in employment growth compared to firms that did not undergo an ownership change. By contrast, there is some evidence that foreign acquisitions show higher employment growth in the post acquisition period than non-acquired SOEs.

Grant support and exporting activity

This paper investigates whether government support can act to increase exporting activity. We use a uniquely rich data set on Irish manufacturing plants and employ an empirical strategy that combines a nonparametric matching procedure with a difference-in-differences estimator in order to deal with the potential selection problem inherent in the analysis. Our results suggest that if grants are large enough, they can encourage already exporting firms to compete more effectively on the international market. However, there is little evidence that grants encourage nonexporters to start exporting.

Three essays on the economics of defense contracting, output and income inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. ^ The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. ^ The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. ^ Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.^

A Decentralized Iron Cage: Do Chinese Local Officials Comply with the Central Government?

This paper contributes to the literature in nancial aid and authoritarian institutions.

For a long time, scholars are debating whether nancial aid is able to facilitate

development and governance. Though abundant evidence is provided, the answer is

still inconclusive. On the other hand, scholars investigating China argue that the

leadership uses various institutions to ensure local ocials' compliance. In this paper,

we nd that the nancial aid does not bring a positive impact and the central

government in China does not have enough monitoring capacity to force local o-

cials to comply. We study a redevelopment program established by Chinese central

government after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. By adopting a geographic regression

discontinuity combining with a dierence-in-dierences design, we show that

the redevelopment program does not signicantly develop the disaster area. On the

contrary, the evidence implies that the economy in the disaster area is worse after

receiving the aid. The results imply that local ocials do not follow the central government's

regulations and misuse the aid money for other purposes. In the future, we

expect to further investigate through which mechanism do local ocials undermine

the existing institutions.

iii

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Economic Evaluations of State Policies

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment

Seriously, less taxes? Tax reform's effects over labor supply

Using a matching and a difference in differences approach we analyzed the impact of a payroll costs reduction implemented through a tax reform in Colombia on worked hours and hourly income -- Existing studies have found mixed results, while increases in wages are commonly found, the results for employment and worked hours effects are a source of debate with no consensus on sight -- However, in line with earlier revisions of literature, we concluded that the effect of payroll costs reductions is positive and significant on both, worked hours and income -- In this paper, using socioeconomic data from Colombia we found that those individuals a effected by a payroll cost reduction between 2012-2014 exhibited significant increases in both hours and income compared to similar individuals una effected by this framework

Effects of subsidizing the first employee – Empirical evidence from Finland

Small businesses form a significant share of all businesses and employ a large share of all employees. Therefore, governments are often interested in subsidizing them and especially employment in smaller firms. Nonemployer firms have received special interest, especially in Finland, due to their large share of all businesses. It has been argued that the government should encourage them to hire by subsidizing employment. However, there is no evidence on the effectiveness of such policies. In general, there is surprisingly little evidence on how small firms react to employment subsidies or of employment subsidies targeted according to firm characteristics. The subject of this thesis is the effects of subsidizing the first employee. While theoretical background suggests the subsidy might have efficiency gains, because there might be market inefficiencies that lead to too little employment in small firms. The focus of this research, however, is on the empirical evidence. There was a regional subsidy for hiring the first employee in Finland between 2007 and 2011. Nonemployer firms in the subsidy area were eligible for a wage subsidy for two years when they hired the first employee. The design of the subsidy enables studying the effects in a natural experiment framework that are nowadays popular in public economics. It can be shown that the area without the subsidy provides a good counterfactual to the area where the subsidy was available. Therefore, the effects of the subsidy can be estimated with difference-in-differences method. This method compares the change in the subsidy area to the change in the area without the subsidy. The data used is firm level data spanning from 2000 to 2013. The data is provided by the Finnish Tax Administration including tax declarations by all Finland based companies. The effects for hiring decisions are estimated by examining the effects for alternative variables such as employment, wage expenditure and turnover. According to the results, the subsidy did not have statistically significant effect on any of the variables of interest. Therefore, it can be concluded that the subsidy did not increase hires in nonemployer firms. This implies that the labour demand elasticity of nonemployer firms is very small. The results are in line with previous literature on the effectiveness of general employment subsidies in Scandinavia that suggest that labour demand elasticity is rather small resulting in small or no effects of employment subsidies. However, my research provides new evidence on labour demand of nonemployer firms especially that has not been studied before. The results are in line with the observation that most nonemployer firms are self-employed persons who are not interested in growing their business to employ others as well, but only provide for themselves. Because of this employment subsidies to the self-employed are not particularly well targeted. The theoretical grounds for the subsidy actually hold for other small firms as well, so it can be argued the subsidy would be more effective if it was extended for hiring the first few employees.

Essays on the Effects of Social Insurance for Disability

This dissertation examines how social insurance, family support and work capacity enhance individuals' economic well-being following significant health and income shocks. I first examine the extent to which the liquidity-enhancing effects of Worker's Compensation (WC) benefits outweigh the moral hazard costs. Analyzing administrative data from Oregon, I estimate a hazard model exploiting variation in the timing and size of a retroactive lump-sum WC payment to decompose the elasticity of claim duration with respect to benefits into the elasticity with respect to an increase in cash on hand, and a decrease in the opportunity cost of missing work. I find that the liquidity effect accounts for 60 to 65 percent of the increase in claim duration among lower-wage workers, but less than half of the increase for higher earners. Using the framework from Chetty (2008), I conclude that the insurance value of WC exceeds the distortionary cost, and increasing the benefit level could increase social welfare. Next, I investigate how government-provided disability insurance (DI) interacts with private transfers to disabled individuals from their grown children. Using the Health and Retirement Study, I estimate a fixed effects, difference in differences regression to compare transfers between DI recipients and two control groups: rejected applicants and a reweighted sample of disabled non-applicants. I find that DI reduces the probability of receiving a transfer by no more than 3 percentage points, or 10 percent. Additional analysis reveals that DI could increase the probability of receiving a transfer in cases where children had limited prior information about the disability, suggesting that DI could send a welfare-improving information signal. Finally, Zachary Morris and I examine how a functional assessment could complement medical evaluations in determining eligibility for disability benefits and in targeting return to work interventions. We analyze claimants' self-reported functional capacity in a survey of current DI beneficiaries to estimate the share of disability claimants able to do work-related activity. We estimate that 13 percent of current DI beneficiaries are capable of work-related activity. Furthermore, other characteristics of these higher-functioning beneficiaries are positively correlated with employment, making them an appropriate target for return to work interventions.

Eleição nas escolas: uma análise do impacto do diretor eleito sobre o desempenho educacional no Estado da Bahia

In Brazil, the selection of school principals is set in a decentralized manner by each state and city, such that processes may vary with time for a specific locality. In the state of Bahia, school principals were appointed by a higher political hierarchy until 2008, when schools under state administration started selecting principals by elections. The main goal of this work is to evaluate whether changing this specific rule affected students proficiency levels. This is achieved by using a panel data and difference-in-differences approachs that compares state schools (treatment group) to city schools (control group) that did not face a selection rule change and thus kept having their principals politically appointed. The databases used are Prova Brasil 2007, 2009 and 2011, the first one prior and the other two former to the policy change. Our results suggest that students attending schools with principals that are selected and elected have slightly lower mean proficiency levels both in mathematics and in portuguese exams than those attending schools with appointed principals. This result, according to the literature, could be related to perverse effects of selecting school administrators by vote, such as corporatism, clientelism and politicization of the school environment

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.

Effets des variations dans l’implantation d’un programme sur le risque cardiométabolique dans six CSSS de Montréal sur les résultats chez les patients

En 2011, l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal (ASSSM), en partenariat avec les Centres de santé et services sociaux (CSSS) de la région, a coordonné la mise en œuvre d’un programme de prévention et de prise en charge intégré sur le risque cardiométabolique. Ce programme, s’inspirant du Chronic Care Model et s’adressant aux patients atteints de diabète et d’hypertension artérielle, est d’une durée de deux ans et comporte une séquence de suivis individuels avec l’infirmière et la nutritionniste, de cours de groupe et de séances d’activité physique. L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’évaluer, à l’aide d’un devis quasi-expérimental, l’impact de la variation dans l’implantation de certains aspects du programme dans les six CSSS participant à l’étude sur les résultats de santé des patients. Cinq aspects du programme ont été retenus : les ressources, la conformité au processus clinique prévu dans le programme régional, la maturité du programme, la coordination interne au sein de l’équipe de soins et la coordination externe avec les médecins de 1re ligne. Des analyses de différence de différences, incluant des scores de propension afin de rendre les groupes comparables, ont été effectuées dans le but d’évaluer l’influence de ces aspects sur quatre indicateurs de santé : l’hémoglobine glyquée, l’atteinte de la cible de tension artérielle et l’atteinte de deux cibles d’habitudes de vie concernant la répartition des glucides alimentaires et la pratique d’activité physique. Les résultats indiquent que les indicateurs de santé sélectionnés se sont améliorés chez les patients participant au programme et ce, indépendamment des variations dans son implantation entre les CSSS participant à l’étude. Très peu d’analyses de différence de différences ont en effet relevé un impact significatif des variables d’implantation étudiées sur ces indicateurs. Les résultats suggèrent que les effets bénéfiques d’un tel programme sont davantage tributaires de la prestation des interventions auprès des patients que d’aspects organisationnels liés à son implantation.