Microevolutionary responses in experimental populations of plants to CO2-enriched environments: parallel results from two model systems.

Despite the critical role that terrestrial vegetation plays in the Earth's carbon cycle, very little is known about the potential evolutionary responses of plants to anthropogenically induced increases in concentrations of atmospheric CO2. We present experimental evidence that rising CO2 concentration may have a direct impact on the genetic composition and diversity of plant populations but is unlikely to result in selection favoring genotypes that exhibit increased productivity in a CO2-enriched atmosphere. Experimental populations of an annual plant (Abutilon theophrasti, velvetleaf) and a temperate forest tree (Betula alleghaniensis, yellow birch) displayed responses to increased CO2 that were both strongly density-dependent and genotype-specific. In competitive stands, a higher concentration of CO2 resulted in pronounced shifts in genetic composition, even though overall CO2-induced productivity enhancements were small. For the annual species, quantitative estimates of response to selection under competition were 3 times higher at the elevated CO2 level. However, genotypes that displayed the highest growth responses to CO2 when grown in the absence of competition did not have the highest fitness in competitive stands. We suggest that increased CO2 intensified interplant competition and that selection favored genotypes with a greater ability to compete for resources other than CO2. Thus, while increased CO2 may enhance rates of selection in populations of competing plants, it is unlikely to result in the evolution of increased CO2 responsiveness or to operate as an important feedback in the global carbon cycle. However, the increased intensity of selection and drift driven by rising CO2 levels may have an impact on the genetic diversity in plant populations.

(Table 2) Protein and fibre content of important food plants of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in Adventdalen

Goose grazing on arctic tundra vegetation has shown both positive and negative effects on subsequent foraging conditions. To understand the potential of a density-dependent feedback on herbivore population size, the relation between grazing pressure and future foraging conditions is essential. We studied the effect of increasing grazing pressure of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on Spitsbergen. During the establishment of a breeding colony in the period 1992-2004, the proportion of graminoids decreased in the diet of wild geese, while the percentage of mosses increased. Grazing trials with captive geese in an unexploited area showed a similar shift in diet composition. High-quality food plants were depleted within years and over years. Intake rate declined too and as consequence, metabolisable energy intake rate (MEIR) decreased rapidly with increasing grazing pressure. During three successive years of experimental grazing, MEIR decreased at all levels of grazing pressure and declined below minimal energetic requirements when grazing exceeded natural levels of grazing pressure. This suggests that foraging conditions rapidly decline with increasing grazing pressure in these low-productive habitats. The potential for density-dependent feedbacks on local population increase is discussed.

Role of Diadegma semiclausum (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) in controlling Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Cage exclusion experiments and direct observation

We evaluated the role of the larval parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum Hellen (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), in controlling Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) by cage exclusion experiments and direct field observation during the winter season in southern Queensland, Australia. The cage exclusion experiment involved uncaged, open cage and closed cage treatments. A higher percentage (54-83%) of P. xylostella larvae on sentinel plants were lost in the uncaged treatment than the closed (4-9%) or open cage treatments (11-29%). Of the larvae that remained in the uncaged treatment, 72-94% were parasitized by D. semiclausum , much higher than that in the open cage treatment (8-37% in first trial, and 38-63% in second trial). Direct observations showed a significant aggregation response of the field D. semiclausum populations to high host density plants in an experimental plot and to high host density plots that were artificially set-up near to the parasitoid source fields. The degree of aggregation varied in response to habitat quality of the parasitoid source field and scales of the manipulated host patches. As a result, density-dependence in the pattern of parasitism may depend on the relative degree of aggregation of the parasitoid population at a particular scale. A high degree of aggregation seems to be necessary to generate density-dependent parasitism by D. semiclausum . Integration of the cage exclusion experiment and direct observation demonstrated the active and dominant role of this parasitoid in controlling P. xylostella in the winter season. A biologically based IPM strategy, which incorporates the use of D. semiclausum with Bt, is suggested for the management of P. xylostella in seasons or regions with a mild temperature.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Potential interactions between humans and non-breeding shorebirds on a subtropical intertidal flat

The primary aim of this study was to investigate whether bait harvesting, with all its inherent effects, occurring in the intertidal zone of a subtropical estuary, had an impact on a migratory shorebird, the eastern curlew Numenius madagascariensis. In a large-scale manipulative study (units of experiment were 1 ha plots), callianassid shrimp Trypaea australiensis populations were harvested simulating the technique (manual pumping) and the levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (347 shrimp per hectare per harvesting event) exhibited by bait-collectors in SE Australia and South Africa. It was found that at present levels of harvesting intensity per unit area (approximately 1% of standing stock removed per harvesting event) there is no threat to the stocks of Trypaea exploited by the curlews in Moreton Bay, Australia. However, the results show that the curlews themselves apply a considerable predation pressure on Trypaea. Based on the birds' foraging rates and densities, it was estimated that they would consume up to 100% of the initial Trypaea stock over the course of a non-breeding season (October to March). However, the stable seasonal trend in the density of the size-cohort of Trypaea preyed upon by the curlews indicates that the existing rates of predation are easily counterbalanced, e.g. through continuous density-dependent recruitment of these crustaceans. We suggest that this mechanism will provide for a stable foraging environment for both the shorebirds and bait collectors.

Modeling molecular transport in slit pores

We examine the transport of methane in microporous carbon by performing equilibrium and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations over a range of pore sizes, densities, and temperatures. We interpret these simulation results using two models of the transport process. At low densities, we consider a molecular flow model, in which intermolecular interactions are neglected, and find excellent agreement between transport diffusion coefficients determined from simulation, and those predicted by the model. Simulation results indicate that the model can be applied up to fluid densities of the order to 0.1-1 nm(-3). Above these densities, we consider a slip flow model, combining hydrodynamic theory with a slip condition at the solid-fluid interface. As the diffusion coefficient at low densities can be accurately determined by the molecular flow model, we also consider a model where the slip condition is supplied by the molecular flow model. We find that both density-dependent models provide a useful means of estimating the transport coefficient that compares well with simulation. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Similarity solution of axisymmetric flow in porous media

Applications of the axisymmetric Boussinesq equation to groundwater hydrology and reservoir engineering have long been recognised. An archetypal example is invasion by drilling fluid into a permeable bed where there is initially no such fluid present, a circumstance of some importance in the oil industry. It is well known that the governing Boussinesq model can be reduced to a nonlinear ordinary differential equation using a similarity variable, a transformation that is valid for a certain time-dependent flux at the origin. Here, a new analytical approximation is obtained for this case. The new solution,, which has a simple form, is demonstrated to be highly accurate. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

Unidirectional inversion of ibuprofen in Caco-2 cells: Developing a suitable model for presystemic chiral inversion study

Intestinal chiral inversion of ibuprofen is still lacking direct evidence. In a preliminary experiment, ibuprofen was found to undergo inversion in Caco-2 cells. This investigation was thus conducted to determine the characteristics and influence of some biochemical factors on the chiral inversion of ibuprofen in Caco-2 cells. The effects of substrate concentration (2.5-40 mu g/ml), cell density (0.5-2 x 10(6) cells/ well), content of serum (0-20%), coexistence of S ibuprofen (corresponding doses), sodium azide (10mm), exogenous Coenzyme A (CoA) (0.1 - 0.4 mm),. and palmitic acid (5-25 mu m) on inversion were examined. A stereoselective HPLC method based on the Chromasil-CHI-TBB column was developed for quantitative analysis of the drug in cell culture medium. The inversion ratio (F-i) and elimination rate constant were calculated as the indexes of inversion extent. Inversion of ibuprofen in Caeo-2 cells was found to be both dose and cell density dependent, indicating saturable characteristics. Addition of serum significantly inhibited the inversion, to an extent of 2.7 fold decrease at 20% content. Preexistence of S enantiomer exerted a significant inhibitory effect (p < 0.01 for all tests). Sodium azide decreased the inversion ratio from 0.43 to 0.32 (p < 0.01). Exogenous CoA and palmitic acid significantly promoted the inversion at all tested doses (p < 0.01 for all tests). This research provided strong evidence to the capacity and capability of intestinal chiral inversion. Although long incubation times up to 120 h were required, Caco-2 cells should be a suitable model for chiral inversion research of 2-APAs considering the human-resourced and well-defined characteristics from the present study.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tidal impacts on riparian salinities near estuaries

Groundwater-dependent riparian biota is known to be sensitive to changes in soil and groundwater salinity in estuarine systems. The groundwater flow and salinity behaviour in a phreatic aquifer adjoining a partially penetrating, tidal. estuary is investigated through two-dimensional numerical experiments for a lateral cross-section, which explore the influence of factors, such as aquifer and soil materials, tidal amptitudes, and regional groundwater hydraulic gradients. The density contrast between estuarine water and the fresh groundwater drives saltwater penetration of the aquifer even in the case of a marked groundwater hydraulic gradient towards the estuary. We show that tidal fluctuations in estuaries can significantly affect the groundwater salinity distribution in adjacent density-stratified phreatic aquifers. This has consequences for the expected distribution of salinity-sensitive biota in the hyporheic zone as well as vegetation and fauna dependent on water in the riparian soil and aquifer. The shape of the dense saltwater wedge propagating into the adjacent groundwater system is also modified by the estuarine tidal signal, although this effect appears to have only minor influence on the maximum distance penetrated into the aquifer (i.e., location of the 'toe' of the wedge). Tide-induced changes to riparian groundwater salinity are advection-driven, as evidenced by the modified time-averaged groundwater flow dynamics. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of spatial inhomogeneity of charge carrier mobility on current-voltage characteristics in organic field-effect transistors

A semi-quantitative model is put forward elucidating the role of spatial inhomogeneity of charge carrier mobility in organic field-effect transistors. The model, based on electrostatic arguments, allows estimating the effective thickness of the conducting channel and its changes in function of source-drain and gate voltages. Local mobility gradients in the direction perpendicular to the insulator/semiconductor interface translate into voltage dependences of the average carrier mobility in the channel, resulting in positive or negative deviations of current-voltage characteristics from their expected shapes. The proposed effect supplements those described in the literature, i.e., density-dependent mobility of charge carriers, short-channel effects, and contribution of contact resistance.

Evaluating Effects of Everglades Restoration on American Crocodile Populations in South Florida Using a Spatially-Explicit, Stage-Based Population Model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.