Portuguese Citizens’ Support for Democracy: 40 Years after the Carnation Revolution

Forty years after the Carnation Revolution, the relatively young Portuguese democracy is experiencing dramatically low levels of public specific support for democracy. This article tests the leverage of demand-side and supply-side accounts to explain differentials in public satisfaction with democracy. Through ordinary least squares regression analyses that draw on the unique data of the ‘Barometer 40 Years of Democracy in Portugal (2014)’, this articles shows that age cohort, identification with extreme parties, evaluation of the country’s political past, and economic performance are strong correlates of citizens’ specific support for democracy

Impact of energy-using product policies

Energy-using products (EuPs), such as domestic appliances, audio-visual and ICT equipment contribute significantly to CO2 emissions, both in the domestic and non-domestic sectors. Policies that encourage the use of more energy efficient products can therefore generate significant reductions in overall energy consumption and hence, CO2 emissions. To the extent that these policies cause an increase the average production cost of EuPs, they may impose economic costs on producers, or on consumers, or on both. In this theoretical paper, an adaptation of a simple vertical product differentiation model – in which products are characterised in terms of their quality and their energy consumption – is used to analyse the impact of the different EuP polices on product innovation and to assess the resultant economic impacts on producers and consumers. It is shown that whereas the imposition of a binding product standard for energy efficiency unambiguously reduces aggregate profit and increases the average market price in the absence of any learning effects, the introduction or strengthening of demand-side measures (such as energy labelling) may reduce, or increase, aggregate profit. Even in the case where the overall impact is unambiguously negative, the effects of product innovation and learning can be in either direction.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

Caracterização da carga da doença arterial periférica dos membros inferiores : contributos para um melhor conhecimento do peso desta doença no internamento hospitalar

RESUMO - A doença arterial periférica (DAP) apresenta uma carga de doença significativa, afetando cerca de 3 a 10% da população em geral e 15 a 20% dos indivíduos com idade superior a 70 anos. A sua prevalência em Portugal foi estimada em cerca de 5,9% no continente; 6,6% na Região Autónoma dos Açores (RAA) e 3,8% na Região Autónoma da Madeira (RAM). Para além da importante carga de doença, quer em termos epidemiológicos, quer económicos, a DAP confere aos seus portadores um risco cardiovascular agravado, sendo que os mesmos apresentam cerca do triplo do risco de mortalidade e de eventos cardiovasculares quando comparados com indivíduos sem DAP. Tratou-se de um estudo observacional, transversal e descritivo tendo como base duas populações de estudo. A primeira é referente aos hospitais do Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS) com a valência de cirurgia vascular e a segunda à população portuguesa com episódios de internamento por diagnóstico de DAP dos membros inferiores (MI) nos anos de 2013 e 2014 na totalidade dos hospitais do SNS. Através da análise dos resultados do questionário procedeu-se à descrição de algumas das características dos serviços e unidades de cirurgia vascular de sete hospitais do SNS; através da análise da base de dados dos GDH para os anos de 2013 e 2014 procedeu-se à caracterização do peso do internamento por DAP dos membros inferiores a nível nacional no mesmo período. A DAP tem uma carga significativa e atendendo aos seus fatores de risco e história natural da doença, apresenta uma tendência crescente durante os próximos anos, representando por isso um enorme desafio para os sistemas de saúde. São, no entanto, necessários estudos mais aprofundados sobre o tema que permitam conhecer melhor o peso desta patologia e, de forma global, melhorar o planeamento, tendo por base a caracterização quer do lado da procura (dados epidemiológicos e peso no internamento), quer da oferta (capacidade instalada).

Yacht charter in Portugal- developing a business model for a sailing charter company

Given the signals that Portugal can be a great destination for charter sailing, the purpose of this work is to disprove this. Thereby the model of Porter’s five forces has been used to analyze the Portuguese yacht charter market, whereas a SWOT analysis should give an overview and compare the Portuguese market with the well running charter market of Croatia. The research outcome on the supply side as well as on the demand side should then serve as a foundation for establishing a model of a sailing charter company in Portugal, explained with the aid of the Canvas model.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Macroclosures in Open Economy Cge Models: a Numerical Reappraisal

It Has Been Argued That in the Construction and Simulation Process of Computable General Equilibrium (Cge) Models, the Choice of the Proper Macroclosure Remains a Fundamental Problem. in This Study, with a Standard Cge Model, We Simulate Disturbances Stemming From the Supply Or Demand Side of the Economy, Under Alternative Macroclosures. According to Our Results, the Choice of a Particular Closure Rule, for a Given Disturbance, May Have Different Quantitative and Qualitative Impacts. This Seems to Confirm the Imiportance of Simulating Cge Models Under Alternative Closure Rules and Eventually Choosing the Closure Which Best Applies to the Economy Under Study.

Stratégies visant à accroître la demande de vaccination infantile dans les pays en développement : révision systématique et méta-analyse

La vaccination figure parmi les interventions sanitaires les plus efficaces et les plus rentables connues. Pourtant, des inégalités de couverture persistent entre les régions et les pays. Les interventions visant à améliorer la couverture vaccinale sont généralement regroupées soit comme interventions pour améliorer l’offre ou la prestation des services de santé, soit comme interventions pour stimuler la demande pour les services de vaccination. L’objectif de cette étude est d’évaluer si les interventions du côté de la demande qui visent à améliorer la couverture vaccinale peuvent accroître la vaccination de routine des enfants dans les pays en développement. Nous avons effectué une revue systématique et une méta-analyse des essais randomisés contrôlés ainsi que d’autres types d’études scientifiques réalisées dans des pays en développement. La population ciblée comprenait les parents et les gardiens d'enfants de moins de deux ans qui sont exposés à une intervention visant à accroître la demande de vaccination de routine des enfants. La recherche des études originales dans les différentes bases de données a été limitée aux études publiées avant septembre 2013 (dernière mise à jour le 25 Mars 2014) dans 6 langues. Onze études ont été sélectionnées puis classifiées dans deux catégories: (a) éducation ou transfert de connaissances (7 études) et (b) incitations (4 études). Les résultats de la métaanalyse ont démontré un impact positif des interventions sur la demande de vaccination des enfants dans les pays en développement (RR 1.30; 95% CI 1.17, 1.44). Ces impacts positifs ont été constatés autant pour les interventions qui comprennent l’éducation ou transfert de connaissances (RR 1.40; 95% CI1.20, 1.63) que pour les interventions de type incitation (RR 1.28; 95% CI 1.12, 1.45). Les résultats suggèrent que diverses stratégies visant à accroître la demande peuvent conduire à une augmentation de la couverture vaccinale dans différents pays en développement.

Essays on education and family planning

Le capital humain d’un pays est un facteur important de sa croissance et de son développement à long terme. Selon l’Unicef, ce capital humain est constitué en donnant à chaque enfant un bon départ dans la vie : non seule- ment la possibilité de survivre, mais aussi les conditions nécessaires pour se développer et réaliser tout son potentiel. Malheureusement, cet état de fait est loin d’être une réalité en Afrique Subsaharienne. En effet, selon toujours l’Unicef et sur la base d’enquêtes ménages dans 21 pays d’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre, c’est près de 32 millions d’enfants qui ont l’âge officiel d’être scolarisés, mais qui ne le sont pas. A ces chiffres, il faut ajouter 17 millions d’enfants scolarisés qui risquent fortement l’exclusion. De son Côté, l’OMS pointe du doigt la mauvaise santé des enfants dans cette région. Ainsi, les décès d’enfants sont de plus en plus concentrés en Afrique subsaharienne où les enfants ont plus de 15 fois plus de risques de mourir avant l’âge de cinq ans que les enfants des régions développées. Les difficultés économiques apparaissent comme la première explication des obstacles à l’amélioration du bien être des enfants aussi bien du côté de l’offre que de la demande. Cette thèse relie trois essais sur d’une part le lien entre conflit armés, l’éducation et la mortalité des enfants et d’autre part sur le lien entre fertilité et éducation des enfants en milieu urbain. Le premier chapitre identifie l’impact de la crise politico-militaire de la Côte d’Ivoire sur le bien être des enfants, en particulier sur l’éducation et la mor- talité infanto-juvénile en exploitant la variation temporelle et géographique de la crise. Il ressort de cette analyse que les individus qui vivaient dans les régions de conflit et qui ont atteint durant la crise, l’âge officiel d’entrer à l’école ont 10% moins de chance d’être inscrits à l’école. Les élèves qui habitaient dans des régions de conflit pendant la crise ont subit une diminu- tion du nombre d’années scolaire d’au moins une année. Les élèves les plus v vi âgés et qui sont susceptibles d’être au secondaire ont connu une décroissance du nombre d’année scolaire d’au moins deux années. Il ressort également que la crise ivoirienne a accru la mortalité infanto-juvénile d’au moins 3%. Mes résultats suggèrent également que la détérioration des conditions de vie et la limitation de l’utilisation des services de santé au cours du conflit con- tribuent à expliquer ces effets négatifs. Des tests de robustesse incluant un test de placebo suggèrent que les résultats ne sont pas dus à des différences préexistantes entre les régions affectées par le conflit et celles non affectées. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les disparités intra-urbaines en matière d’arbitrage entre le nombre d’enfant et la scolarisation des enfants en se focalisant sur le cas de Ouagadougou (Capitale du Burkina Faso). Dans cette ville, au moins 33% des deux millions d’habitants vivent dans des zones informelles (appelées localement des zones non-loties). Cette sous-population manque d’infrastructures socioéconomiques de base et a un niveau d’éducation très bas. Dans ce chapitre, prenant en compte la possible endogénéité du nombre d’enfants et en utilisant une approche "two-step control function" avec des modèles Probit, nous investiguons les différences de comportement des mé- nages en matière de scolarisation entre zones formelles et zones informelles. Nous nous focalisons en particulier sur l’arbitrage entre la "quantité" et la "qualité" des enfants. Compte tenu de l’hétérogénéité des deux types de zones, nous utilisons les probabilités prédites pour les comparer. Nos princi- pales conclusions sont les suivantes. Tout d’abord, nous trouvons un impact négatif de la taille de la famille sur le niveau de scolarisation dans les deux types de zone. Cependant, nous constatons que l’impact est plus aigu dans les zones informelles. Deuxièmement, si nous supposons que le caractère en- dogène du nombre d’enfants est essentiellement due à la causalité inverse, les résultats suggèrent que dans les zones formelles les parents tiennent compte de la scolarisation des enfants dans la décision de leur nombre d’enfants, mais ce ne est pas le cas dans les zones informelles. Enfin, nous constatons que, pour des familles avec les mêmes caractéristiques observables, la probabilité d’atteindre le niveau post-primaire est plus élevée dans les zones formelles que dans les zones informelles. En terme d’implications politique, selon ces résultats, les efforts pour améliorer la scolarisation des enfants ne doivent pas être dirigées uniquement vers les zones rurales. En plus de réduire les frais de scolarité dans certaines zones urbaines, en particulier les zones informelles, un accent particulier devrait être mis sur la sensibilisation sur les avantages de l’éducation pour le bien-être des enfants et leur famille. Enfin, du point vii de vue méthodologique, nos résultats montrent l’importance de tenir compte de l’hétérogénéité non observée entre les sous-populations dans l’explication des phénomènes socio-économiques. Compte tenu du lien négatif entre la taille de la famille et la scolarisation des enfants d’une part et les différences intra-urbaines de comportement des ménages en matière de scolarisation, le trosième chapitre étudie le rôle des types de méthodes contraceptives dans l’espacement des naissances en mi- lieu urbain. Ainsi, en distinguant les méthodes modernes et traditionnelles et en utilisant l’histoire génétique des femmes, ce chapitre fait ressortir des différences de comportement en matière de contraception entre les femmes des zones formelles et informelles à Ouagadougou (capitale du Burkina Faso). Les résultats montrent que les deux types de méthodes contraceptives aug- mentent l’écart des naissances et diminuent la probabilité qu’une naissance se produise moins de 24 mois après la précédente. Prendre en compte les caractéristiques non observées mais invariants avec le temps ne modifie pas significativement l’amplitude du coefficient de l’utilisation de la contracep- tion moderne dans les deux types de zone. Toutefois, dans la zone informelle, la prise en compte les effets fixes des femmes augmentent significativement l’effet des méthodes traditionnelles. Les normes sociales, la perception de la planification familiale et le rôle du partenaire de la femme pourraient expli- quer ces différences de comportement entre les zones formelles et informelles. Par conséquent, pour améliorer l’utilisation de la contraception et de leur efficacité, il est essentiel de hiérarchiser les actions en fonction du type de sous-population, même dans les zones urbaines.

Paper industry in Kerala: An evaluation of labour absorption,capacity utilisation, and environmental pollution

Paper industry is one of the oldest and largest industries in Kerala. Despite the developments in the industry in terms of growth in output , value added and employment generation, many of the units face grave problems. Irrespective of the size of the plant, the problems of the industry are general in nature. The problems are galore in the supply, not the demand side. Amomg the problems, the important ones are: raw material scarcity, energy deficiency and obsolete technology. Further, the industry is subject to many controls by the Government — price control, product control and raw materials control — which result in the dwindling of profits and investments. Equally important are the reservations against the industry for polluting the environment byeffluent disposal on the one hand and affecting ecological balance by depleting the existing forest on the other. Apart from the large, medium and small pulp and paper mills, there are about 30 hand made paper units in Kerala which can be categorised as village and cottage industry. Almost all of these units began at the initiative and support of Khadi and Village Industries Commission. The primary purpose of these units is employment generation, and not profit making. Currently many of these units are in the red and many others are on the verge of closure. Therefore, a separate analysis of the growth performance, and problems and prospects of the hand made paper industry has also been attempted. It is analysed separately because of the very small size of the hand made paper units

Core Labor Rights

The working paper’s main objective is to explore the extent to which non-compliance to international labor rights is caused by global competition. From the perspective of institutional economics, compliance with core labor rights is beneficial for sustainable development. Nonetheless, violations of these rights occur on a massive scale. The violators usually blame competitive pressures. A number of studies have come to the conclusion that non-compliance does not provide for a competitive edge, thereby denying any economic rationale for non-compliance. While we sympathize with this conclusion, we find that these studies suffer from faulty assumptions in the design of their regression analyses. The assumption of perfect markets devoid of power relations is particularly unrealistic. While workers' rights promise long-term benefits, they may incur short-term production cost increases. On the supply side, the production sites with the highest amount of labor rights violations are characterized by a near perfect competitive situation. The demand side, however, is dominated by an oligopoly of brand name companies and large retailers. Facing a large pool of suppliers, these companies enjoy more bargaining power. Developing countries, the hosts to most of these suppliers, are therefore limited in their ability to raise labor standards on their own. This competitive situation, however, is the very reason why labor rights have to be negotiated internationally. Our exploration starts with an outline of the institutionalist argument of the benefits of core labor rights. Second, we briefly examine some cross-country empirical studies on the impact of trade liberalization (as a proxy for competitive pressures). Third, we develop our own argument which differentiates the impact of trade liberalization along the axes of labor- and capital-intensive production as well as low and medium skill production. Finally, we present evidence from a study on the impact of trade liberalization in Indonesia on the garment industry as an example of a low skill, laborintensive industry on the one hand, and the automobile as an example for a medium skill, capital-intensive industry on the other hand. Because the garment industry’s workforce consists mainly of women, we also discuss the gender dimension of trade liberalization.

Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability

This paper presents preliminary results from an assessment of the barriers to adaptation to water supply shortage in a case study catchment in south east England with multiple supply companies. The investigation applies a conceptual framework, which distinguishes between generic barriers affecting the ability of supply companies to make adaptation decisions, and specific barriers to the implementation of each option. The preliminary analysis suggests that whilst there is a widespread awareness of the challenge of climate change, and a conceptual understanding of the need for adaptation, some of the generic barriers that will affect detailed evaluations and actual adaptation decisions have yet to be approached. The analysis also shows that different individual adaptation options are assessed differently by different stakeholders, and that there are differences in the barriers to adoption between supply-side and demand-side measures. First, however, the paper develops the general conceptual framework for the characterisation of the barriers to adaptation used in the study.

An investigation of the impact of time of generation on carbon savings from PV systems in Great Britain

PV only generates electricity during daylight hours and primarily generates over summer. In the UK, the carbon intensity of grid electricity is higher during the daytime and over winter. This work investigates whether the grid electricity displaced by PV is high or low carbon compared to the annual mean carbon intensity using carbon factors at higher temporal resolutions (half-hourly and daily). UK policy for carbon reporting requires savings to be calculated using the annual mean carbon intensity of grid electricity. This work offers an insight into whether this technique is appropriate. Using half hourly data on the generating plant supplying the grid from November 2008 to May 2010, carbon factors for grid electricity at half-hourly and daily resolution have been derived using technology specific generation emission factors. Applying these factors to generation data from PV systems installed on schools, it is possible to assess the variation in the carbon savings from displacing grid electricity with PV generation using carbon factors with different time resolutions. The data has been analyzed for a period of 363 to 370 days and so cannot account for inter-year variations in the relationship between PV generation and carbon intensity of the electricity grid. This analysis suggests that PV displaces more carbon intensive electricity using half-hourly carbon factors than using daily factors but less compared with annual ones. A similar methodology could provide useful insights on other variable renewable and demand-side technologies and in other countries where PV performance and grid behavior are different.

Behaviour change in the UK climate debate : an assessment of responsibility, agency and political dimensions

This paper explores the politics around the role of agency in the UK climate change debate. Government interventions on the demand side of consumption have increasingly involved attempts to obtain greater traction with the values, attitudes and beliefs of citizens in relation to climate change and also in terms of influencing consumer behaviour at an individual level. With figures showing that approximately 40% of the UK’s carbon emissions are attributable to household and transport behaviour, policy initiatives have progressively focused on the facilitation of “sustainable behaviours”. Evidence suggests however, that mobilisation of pro-environmental attitudes in addressing the perceived “value-action gap” has so far had limited success. Research in this field suggests that there is a more significant and nuanced “gap” between context and behaviour; a relationship that perhaps provides a more adroit reflection of reasons why people do not necessarily react in the way that policy-makers anticipate. Tracing the development of the UK Government’s behaviour change agenda over the last decade, we posit that a core reason for the limitations of this programme relates to an excessively narrow focus on the individual. This has served to obscure some of the wider political and economic aspects of the debate in favour of a more simplified discussion. The second part of the paper reports findings from a series of focus groups exploring some of the wider political views that people hold around household energy habits, purchase and use of domestic appliances, and transport behaviour-and discusses these insights in relation to the literature on the agenda’s apparent limitations. The paper concludes by considering whether the aims of the Big Society approach (recently established by the UK’s Coalition Government) hold the potential to engage more directly with some of these issues or whether they merely constitute a “repackaging” of the individualism agenda.